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Without question, the Twins’ win-loss record from the first half was a disappointment to fans, players, coaches and front office decision-makers alike. There’s very little to sugarcoat when the team carries a losing record into the All-Star break. But there’s one emotion that can be just as unpleasant as disappointment, and far more dangerous.
Panic.
Based on the common themes that are presented across various social-media spheres, frustration has a way of boiling over when expectations aren’t being met. That panic leads to reckless speculation, which leads to loud, bombastic ideas for how to improve the team.
The latest concept to come out of this line of thinking is the idea that the Twins should trade their All Star starting pitcher, Sonny Gray, at this year’s trade deadline.
While it’s smart for front offices to listen to offers on any and all players, a trade of this magnitude likely wouldn’t yield the return that many would expect, and it would send a problematic message about where expectations should be going forward. Oftentimes when a Gray trade is suggested, the return package isn’t even a consideration. The logic of the proposal revolves around the idea that this team isn’t good enough to make a deep run in the playoffs, so they should sell their best assets to the highest bidder.
It’s a knee-jerk reaction to a decades-long championship drought, made by surly grumps who see little more to the game than box scores and win-loss records. They don’t like what they see, which is understandable given the struggles of the lineup, but they think changes are needed by any means necessary. But two issues arise from this proposal. First, they don’t fully understand Gray’s worth to the Twins. Second, they don’t fully understand his value to a team trying to acquire him, and how the price shifts around the qualifying offer.
Gray has been about as good as anyone could’ve expected when he was acquired from the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for Chase Petty, the Twins’ first round draft pick in 2021. In just under 220 innings pitched for the Twins, he has a 3.00 ERA with a 24% strikeout rate and an 8.3% walk rate. That performance has been worth 5.2 fWAR since joining the Twins, and he’s taken his game to a new level this season (2.89 ERA, 11.4% swinging-strike rate across 18 starts).
He’s been carried by two traits that would be rather enticing to teams that are in buy-now mode as we creep toward the trade deadline; an ultra-effective slider that pairs magnificently with his modest fastball and the ability to limit damage. Opponents are hitting just .128 against Gray’s slider, which is best in MLB among qualified pitchers according to Inside Edge. Part of that offering’s effectiveness comes from his ability to pair it with his deceptive fastball that boasts an elite spin rate (96th percentile) despite modest velocity. In terms of limiting damage, look no further than Gray’s 77.5% left-on-base average and his .515 OPS allowed with runners in scoring position (fifth-best in MLB). That pitchability bodes well for teams as they consider a pitcher that turns 34 later this year.
That should include the Twins.
While this is Gray’s final year of club control before he reaches free agency, the club can extend him a qualifying offer at season’s end. That price will likely be around $20 million for a one-year contract, and if he declines it and signs elsewhere, the Twins would receive compensation in the form of picks in next year’s amateur draft. If he accepts that offer, the Twins get to return him atop a competitive rotation for 2024 at a reasonable price.
The value of the picks that would be awarded to the Twins if he signs elsewhere depends on how much Gray signs for with another team. If he signs a deal in excess of $50 million, then the Twins would receive a pick just after the first round of next year’s draft (likely in the 31-39 range). That outcome seems likely if Gray stays healthy and on his current trajectory. If he were to reject the qualifying offer and sign elsewhere for less than $50 million, the compensation pick for those teams would come after Competitive Balance Round B, which follows the second round (likely in the 65-70 range).
So if the Twins don’t trade Gray, and he continues to pitch like he has since joining the club, they will likely get him signed for a one-year $20 million deal for 2024 based on the qualifying offer, or receive an extra top-75 pick in next year’s draft. As great as Gray has been, it’s hard to picture a team trading a prospect of this caliber for just two months of control of a pitcher that missed weeks of action with a hamstring issue just last year.
Disappointment is understandable when looking at an underwhelming first half from the Twins. After years of losing baseball and the complete absence of playoff success since 2004, it’s easy to see why fans would be frustrated. Many lack faith that this roster can reach the playoffs in 2023, let alone make a deep run. The easy call in that scenario would be to sell high on expiring assets in an effort to re-fertilize the prospect corps.
But the easy call isn’t always the smartest call.
The Twins need to find a way to be competitive for the rest of this year and in 2024, and the best way to do that is to keep their strong rotation intact while trimming the fat from the lackluster lineup. Gray holds more value to the Twins by remaining in their rotation for a possible playoff run, then returning for one more year, or at least getting high-end draft picks in return if he signs elsewhere. Barring some mythical offer that is too good to pass up, trading him now would be a decision based on panic and nothing more.
What do you think? Should the Twins consider trading Gray to the highest bidder? Or would they be better off building around him for another year? Let us know what you think in the comment section below.
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