The Twins Bullpen is Missing a Starter

Thank you Ted for a well written article. It would seem that whatever pitching change would help the Twins win should be looked at.  A good long term reliever is really important since any starting pitcher can have a off day due to some unknown reason so the team needs someone to come in to pitch 5 or 6 innings so Twins have chance to win game.  Young players are the Twins future so other players need to be able to help wherever they can help the Twins win. Baseball is a team sport that needs every player helping the team win games.

I thought of this idea awhile ago and love it. Maeda hasn't look especially dominant as a starter and at his age and with his injury history, how will he hold up as the season goes on? As a reliever he could both pitch multiple innings while also potentially being very good. If a starter gets knocked out of a game early, potentially due to injury (Like Maeda's last start) it wouldn't have to be an automatic loss for us if Maeda could come in and pitch 3 innings.

It's silly to have Ober sitting behind Maeda at this point. Ober has been very solid, better than Maeda for awhile now. It's a waste to have Ober in AAA, at least until he proves otherwise. And Maeda really only had the one great short season. He needs to be moved to the bullpen.

Maeda was one of the better starting pitchers in baseball prior to his surgery.  Can he be that again?  We won't know unless he is given the opportunity to start.  

Will he need an extra day of rest or miss a start once in awhile?  Yes, but his most recent injury had nothing to do with his arm.  So I would like to see him given time to make a reasonable number of starts to see if he could be that guy again.  And if he tires, then a move to the pen will be the obvious choice for both the Twins and Kenta.  Meanwhile, its awfully nice having Ober, and Varland, sitting over in St. Paul when needed.

1 hour ago, roger said:

Maeda was one of the better starting pitchers in baseball prior to his surgery.  Can he be that again?  We won't know unless he is given the opportunity to start. 

I would disagree that he was one of the better starters prior to surgery, he was a good starting pitcher.

In his best season (11 starts) he was tied for 27th in WAR (1.6)per ESPN, behind Dylan Bundy. His only season with a WAR above 2 was his rookie year 2016 (2.4) again ESPN.

Same numbers at Baseball reference.

In his 21 starts in 21 his WAR was .3.

IMO he should have started the year in the pen and Ober giving the starting job, that didn't happen, now my opinion is Maeda should be given every chance to start, since I don't believe Ober is a future piece of the Twins starting staff, other than a really good fill in starter.

Makes too much sense, Ted. Not screwy enough to be considered.

30 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Seth, I understand giving Maeda 10 more starts and see how he does, and there is much wisdom in that approach. But I believe there is possibly a better way to handle this situation. This is why. Last 2022 season and this 2023 spring training and this early 2023 season, Ober has pitched well enough to be one of the Twins starting pitchers. That is not the issue. The question is 2 part:  1) Can Maeda can pitch better than Ober as a starter. Or 2) whether having Maeda in the bullpen would improve the bullpen. Who would you rather see coming in from the bullpen twice a week for 3-4 innings, Maeda, Headrick, SWR or Sands? Remember, if Maeda remains a starter, Ober is not going to the bullpen. Ober will remain at AAA as the first call-up when a starter is out due to injury or lack of performance. By moving Maeda to the bullpen, we either improve the starting pitching or at the very least, it stays the same with Ober starting instead of Maeda. But by moving Maeda to the bullpen, there is the very real potential to vastly improve the bullpen and by doing so, improve the Twins chances of winning more games. 

We have to look at what makes us better as a team. IMO Maeda doesn't have the stamina to pitch 5+ innings every 5 or so days, I believe Ober has a better chance to do so. So Maeda in the BP in long relief along with spot starts makes more sense because he's the best man in that role & with Maeda in long relief will force Baldelli to actually implement the long relief as he promised.

Pretty clear to me that Ober is the better pitcher at this point and with his future being promising he should be at the show.

That being said one thing I have not seen is that in my mind the front office is likely wanting Maeta to pitch as a starter to keep his trade value up. There will be teams that are going to be wanting a starter as the injury bug continues to hit. Keeping his value up for the next month seems to make sense to get some decent pieces coming back. This FO has done a fair job at getting value back for players that are on their way out... see this as the same situation. 

Maeda's inability to pitch deep into games also puts added stress on our bullpen. Why would the FO want to do this?

49 minutes ago, miller761 said:

Maeda's inability to pitch deep into games also puts added stress on our bullpen. Why would the FO want to do this?

He pitched 5 innings, 6 innings, then got hit in the foot by a line drive after 2 innings. I don't see this statement backed up by any evidence.

Ober just hasn't been that great to kick Kenta to the pen for.

Madea piched about as well while hurt in 2021 (106.1 IP, 4.10 FIP, 1.2 WHIP. 9.6 K/9) as Ober has for the duration of his MLB career (149 IP, 3.92 FIP, 1.13 WHIP, 8.8 K/9). It seems like a waste to have him at AAA, definitely.

I just don't see how you don't wait til Kenta has had a couple starts under his belt to be sure he's not getting back to normal, first. Hard to hold his last start against him in the 'can't go deep narrative'. In the other two he'd gone 5 and then 6 innings.  If he can't go 6 in the next couple, we probably have something to worry about. 

You gotta start, at some point, look at what is best for the team. Ober or Madea in the rotation. Pagan and Moran in the pen, or someone else. Moran still ahs promise at least.

You play to win, not to puff the stats of some players (Madea) to make them a trade candidate - unless you are so far behind in the standings (or too far in front).

19 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't see them ever piggy backing starters. So Maeda to the pen for regular 3-4 inning appearances doesn't sound like a real possibility. He's way too good to be used in that Sands/Headricks/SWR role of sitting around until a starter takes a liner off the leg, or has a terrible start. If you put him the pen it's more likely in the Moran/Pagan/Alcala role of 2 inning, low-leverage appearances a couple times a week. If he's in that role for a month you've taken him out as a possible rotation arm later in the year if/when injuries or performance demand a new rotation arm.

Bailey Ober has topped 100 innings 1 time since he was 18. Inserting him into the rotation and expecting him to go 5+ innings every 5th day seems like it'd be an awfully bold gamble since he's literally never been able to do that. Having him in the St Paul rotation for half the year is wasting his talent. To me the question is whether or not Ober has a future in the rotation at all. I think that's what you need to find out this year. And for the answer to be "yes" he needs to throw at least 120 innings this year. I think some kind of modified 6 man rotation where Lopez, Gray, Ryan, and Mahle throw on regular, or close to it, rest every time through and Maeda and Ober sort of trade off on the 5th spot in the rotation is probably how you maximize them both best.

I'd keep Maeda as the primary #5 starter for at least 4 or 5 more turns to see what he looks like. Maybe do the 6 man rotation for the rest of this 13 day stretch of games, and then send Ober back to St Paul for a couple more weeks and let the other 5 role with the normal 5 man rotation for a few times through. If Maeda looks to be tiring too much through May then it's time to discuss moving him to the pen. I get that people are concerned about his stamina because he's 35 and didn't pitch last year, but if stamina is your main concern your first option to replace him can't be a 27 year old (will be 28 in July) who's never held up to an MLB starter's workload. If having a guy who can take the ball every 5th day and hold up is your concern, Varland is the guy you should be asking for, and you should be suggesting Maeda and Ober take Pagan and Moran's jobs in the pen.

I wouldn't even bother with sending Ober back to St. Paul, I think he needs to stay in the rotation until he's either hurt (likely) or proves he doesn't belong (unlikely) amongst the starting group. My faith in his ability to reach that 120 inning threshold is slim, and even if he were to hit it this year, we'll be having this same discussion for at least another few seasons until he proves he can consistently reach that nominal mark. The worst case is that Maeda fades (either performance or stamina) and Ober isn't available. Get what you can from both of these guys right now, and figure out the rest later. Saving bullets so to speak doesn't make much sense to me when one or two good/decent months bookended by pretty meh baseball might be all it takes to win this awful division. 

13 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't disagree with this premise, I just don't know how you manage the rotation overall with them both in it since I don't think you want to mess with Lopez, Gray, or Ryan and their routines. Mahle, too, but he's a step below those other 3 right now so not as worried about him. You don't want to go changing between 5 man and 6 man rotations a bunch. Starters have pretty strict routines between starts on how they workout and prepare for their next start. A 6 man rotation is hard to maintain all season, and even harder if 2 of those pieces are guys you worry about holding up for the season. But I also don't think sending Ober back to St Paul is a great option. There isn't a great answer, and that's why I stick with Maeda until he gives me a reason not to and worry about the rest from there.

I think that's our answer; they likely won't have to worry about the difficulties of maintaining that 6 man rotation for a large part of the season. I'd kick that can as far down the road as I could and if it got to the point where the number of starters in the rotation is "a good problem to have," then you make a decision.

Everyone says Ober going to the bullpen is a nonstarter. Why is that?  It seems like the simple solution.  Put him in the bullpen and if Maeda can't handle a starting role, then switch the two.  If Ober needs some stretching out, then send him to St. Paul, have him start a game or two, and then bring him back up as a starter.
 

ps., Rooker, of the Oakland/Las Vegas A's, hit two more dingers today for a total of 6 for the year.  And Steer had two hits and two rbi's for the Reds raising his batting average to 294.  In investing, whenever I sell stocks and they go up, it makes me nuts.  Best not to look.  (Sorry for bringing this up.)

AFAIK, no team has ever used a set rotation of 6 starters for an extended period. First, you want your best starter(s) to start every fifth game, maybe even moving other starters back when there's a day off in order to start them every fifth day. Second, even though it would seem that a fifth day off between starts would enable a starter to perform better, it's my understanding that this is often not the case. Of course, spot starts will be needed in certain circumstances such as doubleheaders or for someone to skip a start but IMHO a 6-man rotation is a non-starter (pardon the play on words).

The issue at hand then becomes choosing which five pitchers to put in the rotation. Right now both Ober and Varland appear more ready and able to perform in the majors than Maeda, both appear to have higher ceilings than Maeda, and both are much more likely to be part of the future than Maeda. Also, Maeda should not automatically be entitled to a spot in the rotation. Coming off TJ he's an unknown quantity and he's 35 years old. It makes sense to give him opportunities to demonstrate what he can do but I think those opportunities would be best given in a relief role. Use him when a pitching change is indicated in the 5th or 6th inning, let him go 3 innings or so, and if things go better for him than for someone in the rotation consider making a change.