Sizing Up Cody Allen

I think 1 year/$14 million is way more than he will get, coming off a bad year with loss of velocity. Maybe 1 year/$9 million, or two years/$16 million are more realistic.

That said, I’m not advocating the Pohlads save money. Please, go ahead and bring in good players to make our team better!

Allen could  well be toast from Cleveland's overuse.  He might rebound, but do not think Twins should take the chance, except on a very team friendly one year deal.

14mil for one year? If they are going to overpay for a reliever then they should have overpaid for some of the guys that did not suffer from reduced velocity last season. I get that we need pen help. But do we need to overpay for guys on the downside of their careers?

Frankly we have the money for Kimbrel if we want to throw $$$$ around.

He lost less than 1 MPH on both his FB and CB. With that drop, he still allowed a .230 batting average and struck out 80 hitters in 67 innings. 

 

Sure, I'd love to get Kimbrel. I'd love to get Ottavino. But in practical terms: people have to want to sign here, and the Twins are clearly shying away from multi-year commitments. Allen just makes a ton of sense from that perspective, and after Kimbrel/Ottavino he's the best bet in free agency from my view.

Better than anything either of us has suggested I'd rather the Twins sign Brad Brach to a 2/13 option type deal and trade away some of our milb excess talent to Baltimore for Mychal Givens. It makes no sense to be sitting on the assets and seeing them go to waste.

Basically you'd be looking at 9mil for both guys for 2019. Plus we'd have some badly needed depth and hopefully upgrades.

I think 3yr/$24M would be fair for both sides. Twins need more stability in the later innings and Allen needs security in case 2018 is the new norm (which is unlikely).

Get it done!!! If they're in the playoff hunt in July they should have a better understanding where the team and the minor leaguers are at and use them to improve the MLB team.

I don't understand why the staff writers here continue to ignore the fact that $25 million of last year's payroll was due to BamTec money.

There likely isn't nearly as much payroll flexibility remaining as many people here seem to think.

Cody Allen should be a Twin...Fernando Rodney shouldnt have left..shame on you Falvine

Look. after the

justifications last August of "we freed up payroll money to pay for the improvement of the team

really derek?

I have been hoping for more upgrades in the bullpen and I think Allen is worth taking a chance on. His worst season last year was 5 blown saves.  Didn't we blow about 25 as a team last year. I am not worried about blocking marginal major league relievers. If they could not contribute last year when there was plenty of opportunity and need I would make them earn their innings. I hope they sign a closer and an additional starter and reliever on minor league contracts.

Rodney blew six saves and was shipped out to blow more. Ryan Pressly blew 4 and was shipped out and blew 2 more. Duke blew 3 and was shipped out. Busenitz blew 2 and was demoted.  The people responsible for half the blown saves are gone.

He gave up 11 home runs last year.  I can't take any more walk off losses than endured last year.

I wonder if a deal like Nelson Cruz got (14 million in 2019 and a second year team option for 12 million with a low ($300,000) team buyout) would entice Allen to sign?

A deal like that and this off-season would be a solid success.

Here is the other issue:  What is the point of a one year deal?

If he sucks, then it was money wasted.

If he doesn't suck, he earned his way out of Minnesota purgatory and will get a better deal somewhere else.   Maybe we can dump him for peanuts at the trade deadline but that is a waste of $14 million.....

Instead, the better route to go is trying to develop our own internal closer.   But, the sad fact is, this organization has done a piss poor bad job of developing closers particularly so since we used high level draft picks on hard throwing college relievers with absolutely nothing to show for.

The next best route is to make a trade, maybe even a prospect for prospect trade with another organization, and give that guy the opportunity to hold the job.  Notice I did not say "earn".   

Finding another arm off the scrap heap on a one year deal does nothing to move the needle forward.

Nick you said

"After reaching agreement with all of their arbitration eligible players last week, the Twins have solidified their projected 2019 payroll at around $96 million. That's about $30M below where they were last year (which was just below the MLB average), so needless to say they've got spending flexibility."

I may hbe off base here, but do we know for sure that the Twins are able to / planning on spending more than the $96M they are at?

When I look around Target Field, I'm seeing more and more empty seats.  I also believe that their season ticket holder and corporate sponsor base is diminishing.  If I'm ownership and are seeing that, I might not be so quick to add too much to the payroll.

I certainly hope that is not the case...

Cleveland bullpen was one of the worst in the league last year (along with the Twins).  If you want to monitor Allen's market and move when you feel the value is good I can live with it.  

This team lead the majors in blown saves last year and is young.  The last thing I want to see happen is to start the year, blow 3 - 4 saves in April and have this team collapse into a here we go again mentality when you go to the pen.  This is too important a position to just hope things work out if you intend to compete this year.  If you do not it is a different story, but at that point you encourage other organizations (White Sox) to overspend this year, hit the jackpot and be looking at the same area other teams in this area are at.  Good enough to be decent, not good enough to win or win divisions. 

Nick you said

 

"After reaching agreement with all of their arbitration eligible players last week, the Twins have solidified their projected 2019 payroll at around $96 million. That's about $30M below where they were last year (which was just below the MLB average), so needless to say they've got spending flexibility."

 

I may hbe off base here, but do we know for sure that the Twins are able to / planning on spending more than the $96M they are at?

 

When I look around Target Field, I'm seeing more and more empty seats.  I also believe that their season ticket holder and corporate sponsor base is diminishing.  If I'm ownership and are seeing that, I might not be so quick to add too much to the payroll.

 

I certainly hope that is not the case...

You will not get Joe Fan back without putting a winning product on the field.  This is not hockey or football which has a big natural base to draw from.  Please give the fans some hope and at least put some more money into this franchise.  It is possible some money is being reserved for extensions of key young players, if that is the case, let's get it done.

Average payroll in MLB over the past 5 years (via BP):

 

2014: $115M

2015: $125M

2016: $130M

2017: $136M

2018: $135M

 

The Twins are currently at $98 million. They have money to spend. Lots.

What does average payroll have to do with what the Twins will spend?

Aside from last year, with $50 million BamTec payment, how have they compared historically to average payroll?

2014: 30 million under league average.

2015: 17 million under league average.

2016: 25 million under league average.

2017: 28 million under league average.

That's an average of 25 million under league average over the period you referenced, which would likely cap payroll at around 110 million this year, as I've been saying for close to a year now.

Nice read, Nick!  Why the FO has waited this long to sign a "closer" when our current bullpen so obviously needs  one, is mystifying.  They have the money to overpay if necessary and any one of the three remaining candidates, Kimbrel, Ottavino, or Allen, would in all likelihood be far better than anyone we had last year and certainly yards ahead of our current roster.  Their desire to wait for the market to come to them incurs the huge risk that one of the big boys(Cubs, Red Sox, Dodgers, etc.) will swoop in and grab these three.  Where would that leave Twin prospects in 2019?

My personal preference is Ottavino over Allen, mainly because of the risk that Allen's arm is used up, perhaps similar to Reed's.  The Sox grabbed Herrera for two years at $8MM/yr.  We should have done that!  While Ottavino has really only excelled one year, and that was not as a closer, he appears to have the stuff to be a dominant closer for 2-3 years.  A three year contract at $8-10MM/yr would not break the bank and allow some of our more inexperienced relievers to settle gradually into a back end bullpen role.   With that said, if Ottavino is simply not interested in coming to the Twin Cities(he is a Brooklyn-bred boy), then a two year contract for Allen would be a very suitable substitution, at similar numbers.

Why this FO is so passive this offseason(one FA signing!  one!!) is a real mystery.  I can only surmise they do not feel the Twins are legitimate contenders this year, despite being in the weakest division in the league.  Well, the way this offseason is developing, looks like that non-contention will be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Nice read, Nick! Why the FO has waited this long to sign a "closer" when our current bullpen so obviously needs one, is mystifying. They have the money to overpay if necessary and any one of the three remaining candidates, Kimbrel, Ottavino, or Allen, would in all likelihood be far better than anyone we had last year and certainly yards ahead of our current roster. Their desire to wait for the market to come to them incurs the huge risk that one of the big boys(Cubs, Red Sox, Dodgers, etc.) will swoop in and grab these three. Where would that leave Twin prospects in 2019?

 

My personal preference is Ottavino over Allen, mainly because of the risk that Allen's arm is used up, perhaps similar to Reed's. The Sox grabbed Herrera for two years at $8MM/yr. We should have done that! While Ottavino has really only excelled one year, and that was not as a closer, he appears to have the stuff to be a dominant closer for 2-3 years. A three year contract at $8-10MM/yr would not break the bank and allow some of our more inexperienced relievers to settle gradually into a back end bullpen role. With that said, if Ottavino is simply not interested in coming to the Twin Cities(he is a Brooklyn-bred boy), then a two year contract for Allen would be a very suitable substitution, at similar numbers.

 

Why this FO is so passive this offseason(one FA signing! one!!) is a real mystery. I can only surmise they do not feel the Twins are legitimate contenders this year, despite being in the weakest division in the league. Well, the way this offseason is developing, looks like that non-contention will be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Cruz, Parker, Schoop, that's at least 3 free agents the Twins have signed.

Average payroll in MLB over the past 5 years (via BP):

 

2014: $115M

2015: $125M

2016: $130M

2017: $136M

2018: $135M

 

The Twins are currently at $98 million. They have money to spend. Lots. 

It makes very little sense to use average payroll in setting expectations for this team.  Their revenue is $70M less than average.  Why would we expect their spending to be the same as teams with an incremental $50M in revenue.

MLB revenue eclipsed 10B which is 333M/yr average revenue.  The twins are around $260M or 78%. Therefore if the spend on par with other teams as a percentage, they would spend 78% of $135M or roughly $105M.

I'd move on Cody Allen for a 1 or 2 year deal. I doubt he'll sign at a price we'd be happy with for 3 years, and there's enough risk after last year that a 3-year deal is a little questionable. 1 year at $12M? I'd go there. 2/$20M? I'd think very hard about that one too. more years seems unrealistic for either side. I don't know that I'd go over $12M on a one year deal, but if I'm Allen and I don't like any of the 3+ year deals that teams might go with, I'd probably jump on that, bet on myself, and try to stick it to Cleveland 10-12 times next year.