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Before diving into whether it was the correct decision, let's lay out the logic behind Rocco Baldelli’s move.
First, Zebby Matthews had just given up a double to Ceddanne Rafaela, the No. 9 hitter in the Boston lineup. Next up? Jarren Duran, the Sox's leadoff hitter, for the third time in the game. Here’s where the context is key: while pitch counts used to be the dominant factor in determining when managers lifted their starters, times through the order has become the more telling framework in recent years. Numbers consistently show that pitchers facing hitters for the third time in a game are significantly less effective. This season, Matthews has barely been allowed to see a batter a third time, and when he has, the results haven’t been pretty: 16 plate appearances and a .375 batting average against him.
Then there’s the matchup itself. Jarren Duran is a lefty, and Matthews has struggled all year against left-handed batters, allowing them an OPS of 1.011. Meanwhile, Duran thrives against right-handed pitching, boasting a .913 OPS in those situations. Baldelli knew this wasn’t a favorable setup for the rookie, especially with Duran representing a pivotal out.
On top of all this, Matthews is a rookie, approaching a career high in innings pitched, and hasn’t exactly been the picture of consistency. The context is clear: leaving Matthews in would have risked a catastrophic inning.
So, the skipper turned to his bullpen and decided to bring in lefty Cole Irvin. The goal was to neutralize Duran with two outs. It was its own kind of risky, since the three-batter minimum rule would force Irvin to face right-handed hitters in a less-than-ideal scenario. With two outs, Irvin just needed to retire Duran. If he did, the Twins could reset the bullpen in the next inning. The logic there is sound. Had there been only one out, the decision might’ve been harder to justify.
Now, let’s address the elephant in the room: Cole Irvin.
Irvin was claimed off the scrapheap, after no team with a higher waiver priority than the Twins' wanted him. That's despite the fact that he's controllable beyond this year. It's understandable, because his 2024 season has been nothing short of miserable. However, his splits against left-handed hitters are solid—he’s held them to a .529 OPS this year, and Baldelli has shown a preference for deploying Irvin in these mid-inning matchups. The only other lefty available was Caleb Thielbar, who hasn’t inspired much more confidence than Irvin this season. So, Minnesota’s options were limited.
Could Baldelli have gone to one of his high-leverage arms, like Griffin Jax, Jhoan Durán, or Cole Sands to escape the jam? Sure--especially coming off an off day with the rainout on Saturday and a planned day off on Monday. Pushing extra hard on the top of your bullpen was certainly in the cards. But still, it was only the 5th inning, and burning one of your top bullpen arms that early in a game with so much baseball left to play is rarely ideal.
The issue wasn’t in the decision to bring in Irvin—it was what happened next. Irvin walked Duran. That was the one thing he couldn’t afford to do. Compelled to stay in and face a right-handed batter, Irvin’s numbers take a nosedive. Against righties, Irvin has allowed a .942 OPS this season. The result was heartbreakingly predictable: Romy González hit a three-run bomb, and the inning spiraled out of control.
Here’s an interesting observation to fold in from a broader perspective: The Twins' starting rotation, almost exclusively right-handed the past few seasons, means the team enjoys the platoon advantage more often than any other club when their starter is in the game. This year, they’ve had the platoon advantage in 52.2% of their starter matchups, first in MLB. However, that setup also invites opposing teams to stack their lineup with left-handed bats. The downside? The Twins lack reliable left-handed relievers. In fact, while most teams gain more favorable platoon matchups when they turn to their bullpen, the Twins don’t—once again landing at that 52.2% mark. The Irvin walk exposed the flaw in this bullpen construction: when you can’t rely on your lefties to at least get lefties, the advantage evaporates.
In the end, Baldelli’s logic was solid—he protected the rookie from facing a dangerous lefty for the third time, gave himself a chance to avoid the three-batter minimum trap, and put Irvin in a position to succeed. But baseball is a game of execution, and Irvin’s inability to throw strikes cost the Twins dearly. The problem wasn’t the decision-making—it was the options available. When your two left-handed bullpen arms are inconsistent at best, and one walks the one batter he can't, it’s tough to find a winning outcome.
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