REPORT: Twins Finalizing Deal With Blake Parker

So who goes? Vote for Magill or Duffey, although the Twins could cut ties with Granite.

Tyler Duffey, and don't think twice about it.

1) He has an option and can be the virtual 13th or 14th pitcher waiting in AAA to be shuttled back and forth.

2) His strike out and walk ratios remain solid and stable. Those peripherals lead to an xFIP similar to Parker and Hildenberger and much better than Magill. A reliever’s xFIP is a far better predictor for the future than ERA or FIP.

3) He has a good curve ball and I want to see how the new pitching staff can refine and utilize it.

He needs a spot on the 40 but not the 25. I would remove Magill and Michael Reed who don’t have options remaining first. I think I would also remove Granite from the 40 before Duffey.

1. ??

2. May

3. Rogers

4. Romero

5. Reed (rejuvenated hopefully?)

6. Parker (FB velo down but still within .5 of MLB average FB)

7. ???

Assuming they trade for or sign a guy who slots up there with May and Rogers, which of the in-house candidates is an acceptable last man, and which AAA options would be acceptable injury replacements?

Moya

Vasquez

Magill

Curtiss

Hildenberger (recovered from over-use?)

Duffey

Kohl Stewart

Jake Reed

A slew of others I can't think of off the top of my head

With one more premier addition, I'd be very comfortable that we have pretty much a complete roster of fairly decent call-up options, probably more than most teams.

I guess I don't mind this pickup- But I'm more interested in who goes from the 40? 

I like this signing.  We have worse guys in our bullpen right now so this is an upgrade.  Can't really argue with that.  And at the price we signed him for, if he doesn't work out, the Twins can cast him off easily.

In my eyes, lots of options in the bullpen make sense.  Over the course of a year, you are going to use numerous guys out of the pen.  Guys you expected a lot out of aren't going to perform at the level you expected, other guys are going to come out of no where and pitch better than expected.

Options are good and Parker gives them options.  A decent move.

So who goes? Vote for Magill or Duffey, although the Twins could cut ties with Granite.

I'm not sure either. But factoring in the fact that we already have several outfielders that can do the AAA shuttle, I'd say that Granite might be the one they DFA.

I think we are not thinking through what the FO plan is for the bullpen this year. I see several of these guys on the AAA shuttle all year long as they work to find out who can perform in different spots while keeping fresh arms on the roster at all times. It also gives them the option of increasing or decreasing the bench as circumstances warrant. Therefor, the guys that have options remaining will be more important than those that don't. The use of the opener could also make it necessary to move fresh arms up and down throughout the season as the opener pitches in a game and then may be shuttled down to bring up a fresh arm for the bullpen the next day.

Minnesota Twins: This is How We Sign your Untendered Scraps

If Trevor May was our 12th best asset, Parker is 10th or 11th.

I was going to say are we sure TR isn't pulling these strings?

More like Calvin Griffith.

There has been a lot of talk on this site how the Twins are sitting on piles of money, or at least how could spend at a much higher rate. While I suspect that is likely true, nobody seems to factor in the fact that this FO is spending a lot more money in areas that the previous FO did not.

Beyond beefing up the analytics department, they have also beefed up the FO in general. They have added more coaches throughout the minor league system than the previous FO had. They have a couple more major league coaches. Though other adds are more difficult to track, they seem to have added to both the scouting department, the fitness department, and maybe even people who deal with mental health.

Some of this was started by the previous FO, but money has been spent on facilities in Fort Myers and the Dominican Republic, Statcast and other tracking toys, as well upgrading the Elizabethan facilities.

I expect I may be missing other "upgrades" but the money for these things comes from the same sources even if it doesn't fit under the same category as major league player salaries. Now, I believe income for the Twins is trending up, even if attendance isn't. While I think the various upgrades undertaken the last few years were largely necessary, it is likely that this spending could very well impact, at least to some degree, the money available for free agents.

 I doubt the Twins have spent much more than 5-6 million in each of the last 2 seasons on upgrading the front office.  Scouts don't make much money.  minor league coaches don't either.  maybe 40-60 k tops.  I bet the front office ads make between 50-200 k on the top end.  The technology could be costly.  But I doubt the Twins have spent more than 5-6 million total which is around 3 million per season.  Even if they did spend more on the technology, Its mostly a 1 time expense so in future seasons it may not affect the payroll as much.

The upgrades on the stadiums can be costly depending on what is done.  I know they spent money in Fort Myers, but I don't think they spent in AA.  maybe some in AAA or in the Dominican Republic.  That's what i don't know or am able to estimate.   But that would have to be what is holding spending back.  and if so great because its a 1 time expense.

Also our local TV and radio deals are terrible compared to what the rest of the teams are getting.  If only the local TV and radio weren't so greedy, they could give Jim Pohlad more money so he can spend 52% of it on player salaries.  

Minnesota Twins: This is How We Sign your Untendered Scraps

Excellent title for a book.

Honest question, because I don't read a lot of minor league news/stats/etc outside of stuff posted on here, but is there a reason people are so quick to push for Romero to the pen? It isn't like our starting staff is stacked and it still seems like he has the potential to be a solid starter. Am I missing some other info or what is the reason people want to move him to the pen already?

Romero in the pen in '19 does not preclude Romero in the rotation in '20 and / or '21.

"Some degree" is probably an incredibly small degree. It's just a reality that MLB player salaries dwarf these other expenditures. Average MLB team payroll is in the range of $130+ million annually. None of the expense items you list could likely equal even 1% of that in a single year.

 

An expense like Elizabethton is a drop in the bucket: $300k upfront, $50k per year for 10 years:

https://www.johnsoncitypress.com/Government/2018/10/09/Elizabethton-City-Council-may-reach-agreement-Thursday-with-the-Minnesota-Twins-on-Joe-O-Brien-stadium-upgrades

 

Coaching staff salaries are maybe $50k per year too? Depending on level?

 

And it seems doubtful that there are significant new Statcast costs in 2019 (Target Field was outfitted during the previous regime).

 

The Twins newest Dominican academy was reported as costing $18 mil, but that was 2 years ago (again, the previous regime) and split between the Twins and Phillies: https://www.mlb.com/news/twins-open-dominican-republic-baseball-academy/c-213683558

 

And it's not as if the average team is investing zero dollars in these things -- they are likely adding new Statcast equipment, new coaches, new facilities too. Even if the Twins are spending above average in these areas now, it's doubtful they are above that average enough to justify any meaningful drop from that $130+ mil average annual player payroll.

I think this is a helpful synopsis.

I'm not privy to what the entire Baseball Operations operating budget is of course. Many many years ago, Carl Pohlad finally gave in to the longstanding and persistent efforts of MacPhail, Billy Smith, and Jim Pohlad and approved an annual budget to build up the international presence. At the time, they were pretty much impotent in terms of relationships, influence and stature in the DR. Carl agreed to a long-range (10-year) plan and strategy to become competitive in the international scouting and player acquisition business, with a critical goal of being a player in the DR. That initial budget put them in the upper echelons of spending in the international category. The initial capital costs, land included, for the Dominican facility was $15M for the Twins. That was in the early stages of a commitment to shoulder higher overall operating costs, in the DR and elsewhere, than a vast majority of franchises. The international allotment decision reduced the value of this initiative, but it's been valuable nonetheless.

Knowing this history, it didn't shock me that Jim Pohlad went to his board and got the blessing to bolster the annual operating budget regarding all these development-related initiatives, although it took him too long because he lacked champions of such a move within the organization. I don't know what the numbers are, but I'd venture a guess that when it's all said and done, the Twins will have one of the higher budgets in this area as well.

But to your point, Spy, neither their above-average international fixed budget or this new fixed-cost domestic infrastructure is going to cost so much that it will be part of the calculus regarding the variable-cost MLB payroll. They're not even thought of in a similar context.