Let The Kid Play

DocBauer · September 24, 2023

4 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Probably. But that then pushes Polanco, Martin and Julien out of the infield, not to mention Gordon and guys like that (I personally don’t feel Julien should be at second anyway).

Just trying to think deeper about this, and get a head start on all the offseason articles. 🙂

Julien has greatly improved defensively at 2B and is starting to look at least average. Made 2 great plays in the clinch game, including the final out. But he's also going to continue at DH and 1B.

Martin will be able to cover 2B, but he's going to stick in the OF as he looks good there, and the INF has enough depth there already.

WHEN Lee is up...and I don't he breaks with the club but comes up later...Polanco still has a role. No reason he can't play all 4 INF spots, including 1B, DH once in a while, and play 4 out 6 games to be productive and take some pressure off his legs.

Castro can still play across the INF as well. And there might be room for Prato or Severino in the near future as well. So the INF is well covered, but still room for Polanco and his $10M next year, no doubt.

jimbo92107 · September 24, 2023

1 hour ago, D.C Twins said:

Correa is simply getting rest for chronic foot issues. He'll 100% be back.

Ever have a torn facia? I have. Healing is not a matter of weeks, it's a matter of months. Correa may well be back in the lineup for the playoffs, but he will NOT be healed up. His foot will feel like a burning knife is cutting through his arch. The only good news is that, if he aggravates the injury, it will heal before spring training.

Hosken Bombo Disco · September 25, 2023

2 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Julien has greatly improved defensively at 2B and is starting to look at least average. Made 2 great plays in the clinch game, including the final out. But he's also going to continue at DH and 1B.

Martin will be able to cover 2B, but he's going to stick in the OF as he looks good there, and the INF has enough depth there already.

WHEN Lee is up...and I don't he breaks with the club but comes up later...Polanco still has a role. No reason he can't play all 4 INF spots, including 1B, DH once in a while, and play 4 out 6 games to be productive and take some pressure off his legs.

Castro can still play across the INF as well. And there might be room for Prato or Severino in the near future as well. So the INF is well covered, but still room for Polanco and his $10M next year, no doubt.

I would rather see current players like Correa and Buxton moved to other positions to accommodate Lee, instead of guys like Lewis, Martin and Lee being moved around to accommodate Correa and Buxton. At least we can agree that it’s ok to move players around to different positions. 🙂

twinstalker · September 25, 2023

As I'm sure has been mentioned, Kirilloff was on the 40. Lee's never shown the bat of Kirilloff. Lee did fine at AA. Nothing about it said he'd be star material. In general he was better than your average AA player. You would promote someone whose bat is ready to excel in the majors, because facing the likes of Verlander and Valdez would be downright ugly for a guy whose bat isn't ready in even the middle of the season call up for a doubleheader game. Oof. We may need all three option years with him, who knows?

twinstalker · September 25, 2023

8 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Where is Lee going to play when he is called up next year?

Wherever the mass of injuries it requires leaves an opening.

To be less glib, I don't think he's good enough to play shortstop except in an emergency. The only game he's played at 2B was in the Cape Cod League one summer. I would guess he'll participate in the FIL starting soon and work on all infield positions. But right now it would likely be 3B with SS as an emergency or "we don't care for this short of time" sort of thing.

Lee will start to hit at AAA next year, probably. Any future MLB player, division 1 or 2, will/would hit in the bandbox that is St. Paul in his age 23 season if he's played well enough at AA and had part of a year at AAA already. But unless he's absolutely destroying it like Lewis/Wallner/Julien/Kirilloff, I don't think Lee is going to be a priority.

stringer bell · September 25, 2023

19 minutes ago, twinstalker said:

Wherever the mass of injuries it requires leaves an opening.

To be less glib, I don't think he's good enough to play shortstop except in an emergency. The only game he's played at 2B was in the Cape Cod League one summer. I would guess he'll participate in the FIL starting soon and work on all infield positions. But right now it would likely be 3B with SS as an emergency or "we don't care for this short of time" sort of thing.

Lee will start to hit at AAA next year, probably. Any future MLB player, division 1 or 2, will/would hit in the bandbox that is St. Paul in his age 23 season if he's played well enough at AA and had part of a year at AAA already. But unless he's absolutely destroying it like Lewis/Wallner/Julien/Kirilloff, I don't think Lee is going to be a priority.

I mostly agree with your thoughts above. I do think Lee is a future All-Star, probably as a third baseman, and he would be a capable shortstop (not "break glass in emergency") despite only average speed and range (much like Correa). I don't think he's ready for a major league debut and certainly not for postseason baseball, but he's only been a professional for about 15 months.

Doctor Wu · September 25, 2023

Great prospect who has played at or above expectations thus far, but I would not want him to be a last-minute addition to the playoff roster. I'd rather roll with the vets like Farmer and Solano, or (get ready to shudder) even Gallo when it comes to the playoffs.

Otaknam · September 25, 2023

They will start the experienced Farmer at SS, regardless if Lee is called up. You don’t want a rookie w no ML experience to start in the playoffs at such a premium position when there is another solid option. That said I don’t think they will call up Lee this fall.

Fat Calvin · September 25, 2023

Lee's not ready yet. He needs another year in the minors, at least to start the season. I could see the Twins bringing him up mid-season next year if he's raking in St. Paul.

joefish · September 25, 2023

19 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

Correa is simply getting rest for chronic foot issues. He'll 100% be back.

He will 100% be back, but far less than at 100%.

mrtwinsfan · September 26, 2023

On 9/24/2023 at 10:01 AM, Karbo said:

Wouldn't that cost a year of service time?

nO

Riverbrian · September 26, 2023

Brooks doesn't have to be added to the 40 man roster until December 2025.

Correa, Lewis, Polanco, Julien, Farmer, Miranda, Castro and Gordon makes 8 potential infielders that the Twins could bring back next year. Add Austin Martin who will have to be added to the 40 man roster in December and we have 9. Adding Lee to the 40 man would make it 10.

This isn't a service time decision... it's an option decision.

We all need to consider the possibility that Brooks is going to burn through options until that everyday major league job is his.

Adding him cold to a playoff roster would be a bad decision because there is no guarantee that Brooks will be added to the 40 man next year with the options we have and the options that he has.

Let Brooks force himself onto the 40 man during the season next year through extraordinary play. He has to be MUCH better than what we have.

Mike Sixel · September 26, 2023

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Brooks doesn't have to be added to the 40 man roster until December 2025.

Correa, Lewis, Polanco, Julien, Farmer, Miranda, Castro and Gordon makes 8 potential infielders that the Twins could bring back next year. Add Austin Martin who will have to be added to the 40 man roster in December and we have 9. Adding Lee to the 40 man would make it 10.

This isn't a service time decision... it's an option decision.

We all need to consider the possibility that Brooks is going to burn through options until that everyday major league job is his.

Adding him cold to a playoff roster would be a bad decision because there is no guarantee that Brooks will be added to the 40 man next year with the options we have and the options that he has.

Let Brooks force himself onto the 40 man during the season next year through extraordinary play. He has to be MUCH better than what we have.

What does "force his way" mean? Because Julien was sent down, as was Wallner after coming up. Severino dominated the minors this year, not up. What would a player have to do, beyond OPS over 1.000 and play elite defense (like Martin) and be able to steal at will? How does he "force his way" if Julien and Polanco are on the roster, given they sent Julien down the first time when Polanco came back?

This idea that the Twins have guys force their way up seems like a myth to me. They only come up with injuries....and sit in AAA until then as depth.

Squirrel · September 26, 2023

20 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

What does "force his way" mean? Because Julien was sent down, as was Wallner after coming up. Severino dominated the minors this year, not up. What would a player have to do, beyond OPS over 1.000 and play elite defense (like Martin) and be able to steal at will? How does he "force his way" if Julien and Polanco are on the roster, given they sent Julien down the first time when Polanco came back?

This idea that the Twins have guys force their way up seems like a myth to me. They only come up with injuries....and sit in AAA until then as depth.

Honestly, I'm hoping Lee is in the picture for next season. But for this season, no. There would have to be extraordinary circumstances to do that this year, particularly since he doesn't need to be added to the 40-man for a while yet and has not yet experienced Major League pitching and play. I'd rather have given Martin a cuppa this year as he does need to be added in the off-season. Neither, however, do I want to add to the play off roster. I mean, no.

jorgenswest · September 26, 2023

I first will acknowledge that any decision based on AAA stat lines is pretty unreliable. Given that, I would want to see at least 200 plate appearance of sustained 35% above league average over the current year and similar high previous performance at levels below AAA. That might force his way.

Brooks Lee has performed 22% below league average in AAA and 20% above league average in a much longer AA stint this year.

I should add that the converse is not true. The decision really should be made based on slash stats. They take so long to stabilize.

Riverbrian · September 26, 2023

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

What does "force his way" mean? Because Julien was sent down, as was Wallner after coming up. Severino dominated the minors this year, not up. What would a player have to do, beyond OPS over 1.000 and play elite defense (like Martin) and be able to steal at will? How does he "force his way" if Julien and Polanco are on the roster, given they sent Julien down the first time when Polanco came back?

This idea that the Twins have guys force their way up seems like a myth to me. They only come up with injuries....and sit in AAA until then as depth.

Broader Answer: He has to be Jordan Walker-esque. The Cardinals certainly didn't need to add Walker to the 40 man as a 20 year old. They had Arenado at 3B and a whole bunch of outfielders. They did it because they determined that he is a special player at age 20 and clearly better than the other options.

In hindsight... was that smart? That's debatable. He ended up being clearly better than the other OF options because O' Neill and Carlson ended being not very good at all... But his 791 OPS while above average was clearly not to the level that he could carry the team into the playoffs. In the end, the Cardinals are golfing in the off-season while Jordan has burned one option if he doesn't stay in the majors and if he remains in the majors he will reach free agency before he hits that 27 year old prime.

Specific Answer using Twins context:

Lee not on the 40 man has to be clearly better than Miranda and Martin who will both in AAA and on the 40 man. When the first injury hits at the major league level and a phone call is made to St. Paul. Why would you put Lee on the 40 man with Miranda and Martin on the 40 man if he is only performing a little bit better than Miranda or Martin. He has to force his way onto that 40 man by being the clearly the best option to replace the first man down at the major league level.

Adding Lee to the 40 man roster and giving him a MLB job out of spring training would be completely unnecessary and absolutely risky... unless he is clearly MUCH MUCH better than Polanco, Julien, Farmer, Castro, Miranda, Martin ETC.

Mike Sixel · September 26, 2023

7 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Broader Answer: He has to be Jordan Walker-esque. The Cardinals certainly didn't need to add Walker to the 40 man as a 20 year old. They had Arenado at 3B and a whole bunch of outfielders. They did it because they determined that he is a special player at age 20 and clearly better than the other options.

In hindsight... was that smart? That's debatable. He ended up being clearly better than the other OF options because O' Neill and Carlson ended being not very good at all... But his 791 OPS while above average was clearly not to the level that he could carry the team into the playoffs. In the end, the Cardinals are golfing in the off-season while Jordan has burned one option if he doesn't stay in the majors and if he remains in the majors he will reach free agency before he hits that 27 year old prime.

Specific Answer using Twins context:

Lee not on the 40 man has to be clearly better than Miranda and Martin who will both in AAA and on the 40 man. When the first injury hits at the major league level and a phone call is made to St. Paul. Why would you put Lee on the 40 man with Miranda and Martin on the 40 man if he is only performing a little bit better than Miranda or Martin. He has to force his way onto that 40 man by being the clearly the best option to replace the first man down at the major league level.

Adding Lee to the 40 man roster and giving him a MLB job out of spring training would be completely unnecessary and absolutely risky... unless he is clearly MUCH MUCH better than Polanco, Julien, Farmer, Castro, Miranda, Martin ETC.

Which has nothing to do with my question..... What evidence is there a player can force their way onto the team without an injury? Because it looks like a myth to me.

Riverbrian · September 26, 2023

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Which has nothing to do with my question..... What evidence is there a player can force their way onto the team without an injury? Because it looks like a myth to me.

I thought I'd answered the question with by being "Jordan Walker-Esque". Guess I was wrong.

Evidence? I have none.

Has the Twins organization had a prospect worthy of forcing their way onto the team without injury?

Where is the Twins version of Acuna? Juan Soto? Vlad Jr? Julio Rodriquez? Wander Franco?

If Brooks Lee is that type of player... that is how he forces his way onto the team without injury.

If he is that type of player... The organization doesn't bother bringing back Polanco and they hand the job to Brooks Lee and hope Lee is what they say he is because Polanco isn't here anymore in case he isn't.

I don't believe Brooks Lee is that type of player but if he is... we will find out when the injury to someone else occurs.

DJL44 · September 26, 2023

10 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Where is the Twins version of Acuna? Juan Soto? Vlad Jr? Julio Rodriquez? Wander Franco?

That was Byron Buxton. They traded Aaron Hicks to clear a place for Buxton on the roster. He wasn't good for a couple more seasons.

Riverbrian · September 26, 2023

Just now, DJL44 said:

That was Byron Buxton. They traded Span and Revere to clear a place for Buxton on the roster. He wasn't good for a couple more seasons.

Yep... that's what I was thinking as I posed the question.

They cleared the space for Buxton and they did it with Hicks before that and instead of swimming... they sunk.

Riverbrian · September 26, 2023

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

What does "force his way" mean? Because Julien was sent down, as was Wallner after coming up. Severino dominated the minors this year, not up. What would a player have to do, beyond OPS over 1.000 and play elite defense (like Martin) and be able to steal at will? How does he "force his way" if Julien and Polanco are on the roster, given they sent Julien down the first time when Polanco came back?

This idea that the Twins have guys force their way up seems like a myth to me. They only come up with injuries....and sit in AAA until then as depth.

Options are what you are fighting. The option to keep a player in reserve without penalty is what you are fighting. The team is better with Polanco, Solano, Farmer and Julien than it is with Julien, Solano and Farmer.

If a player has options... they can be stored. They have to be much better than the player without options who can't be stored.

It's like that in every organization.

nicksaviking · September 26, 2023

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

Options are what you are fighting. The option to keep a player in reserve without penalty is what you are fighting. The team is better with Polanco, Solano, Farmer and Julien than it is with Julien, Solano and Farmer.

If a player has options... they can be stored. They have to be much better than the player without options who can't be stored.

It's like that in every organization.

Whether Lee can help the team now is one thing, but I'm not worried about losing an option year. Seems to me, guys that need to use all of their options almost never meet their potential anyway.

I'm not sweating a "tough" decision on a Nick Gordon type four years from now.

Riverbrian · September 26, 2023

19 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Whether Lee can help the team now is one thing, but I'm not worried about losing an option year. Seems to me, guys that need to use all of their options, almost never meet their potential anyway.

I'm not sweating a "tough" decision on a Nick Gordon type four years from now.

I agree in theory. Although... I simultaneously DON'T WORRY about losing an option year and WORRY about losing an option year.

It all depends on Brooks Lee.

If Brooks is looking good when called up... I won't worry about those options that will never be used because he is here to stay. I don't worry about that guy.

However... if he comes up and performs like Byron Buxton did. Up Down Up Down Up down until September 2018 when Byron's last option was used to manipulate his service time to gain that extra year of control. In that scenario I worry about the preservation of options.

I also worry about who we lose on the 40 man to give him a spot when we don't have to give him a spot.

You and I stand here on September 26th, 2023 and neither of us can predict the development arc of Brooks Lee. Why not keep our (pardon the pun) options open.

Mike Sixel · September 26, 2023

13 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I agree in theory. Although... I simultaneously DON'T WORRY about losing an option year and WORRY about losing an option year.

It all depends on Brooks Lee.

If Brooks is looking good when called up... I won't worry about those options that will never be used because he is here to stay. I don't worry about that guy.

However... if he comes up and performs like Byron Buxton did. Up Down Up Down Up down until September 2018 when Byron's last option was used to manipulate his service time to gain that extra year of control. In that scenario I worry about the preservation of options.

I also worry about who we lose on the 40 man to give him a spot when we don't have to give him a spot.

You and I stand here on September 26th, 2023 and neither of us can predict the development arc of Brooks Lee. Why not keep our (pardon the pun) options open.

What if he dominates like Wallner and Julien did, then were sent down? You'll have to worry then.

PLenty of teams are trusting rookies, this team kept Joey Gallo all year, and bad SS in the past.

This FO seems to be in love with veterans, no matter how good the prospects are looking in the AAA or the majors. For those saying we can't trust AAA, I'm not sure what you want players to do....since playing in AAA is their option.

Linus · September 26, 2023

8 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

What if he dominates like Wallner and Julien did, then were sent down? You'll have to worry then.

PLenty of teams are trusting rookies, this team kept Joey Gallo all year, and bad SS in the past.

This FO seems to be in love with veterans, no matter how good the prospects are looking in the AAA or the majors. For those saying we can't trust AAA, I'm not sure what you want players to do....since playing in AAA is their option.

I get your point but I think the question is very different for Lee compared to Martin. Martin has had some success at AAA which as you point out all he can do. Lee has not to date and isn’t worth burning the 40 man spot and option.

Riverbrian · September 26, 2023

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

What if he dominates like Wallner and Julien did, then were sent down? You'll have to worry then.

PLenty of teams are trusting rookies, this team kept Joey Gallo all year, and bad SS in the past.

This FO seems to be in love with veterans, no matter how good the prospects are looking in the AAA or the majors. For those saying we can't trust AAA, I'm not sure what you want players to do....since playing in AAA is their option.

You'll never get me to defend Gallo. Wallner over Gallo 8 days a week in my opinion. Wallner is better than Gallo.

I would have cut Gallo in June. (Along with Kepler). You and I would both like to ask the front office about that one.

However, you and I have different definitions on "dominates".

I'm not knocking Wallner but the word I would use is decent.

After watching Wallner this year and thinking about next year. I'm still not comfortable handing him a starting job with no safety net. Absolutely want him on the 26 man roster but I still want that safety net in case he goes Miranda on us next year.

I like Julien a lot... I think Julien should be starting in the playoffs for this team. Next year... would I be comfortable cutting Polanco next year to clear space for Julien... I would not. I want him on the 26 man roster next year... but I still want that safety net.

Decent is a compliment... Decent is not a word I can use to describe Gallo.

Riverbrian · September 26, 2023

1 minute ago, Riverbrian said:

You'll never get me to defend Gallo. Wallner over Gallo 8 days a week in my opinion. Wallner is better than Gallo.

I would have cut Gallo in June. (Along with Kepler). You and I would both like to ask the front office about that one.

However, you and I have different definitions on "dominates".

I'm not knocking Wallner but the word I would use is decent.

After watching Wallner this year and thinking about next year. I'm still not comfortable handing him a starting job with no safety net. Absolutely want him on the 26 man roster but I still want that safety net in case he goes Miranda on us next year.

I like Julien a lot... I think Julien should be starting in the playoffs for this team. Next year... would I be comfortable cutting Polanco next year to clear space for Julien... I would not. I want him on the 26 man roster next year... but I still want that safety net.

Decent is a compliment... Decent is not a word I can use to describe Gallo.

Royce Lewis is the only position player who gets the "dominates" tag from me. 😎

jorgenswest · September 26, 2023

Is it possible the run scoring environment of AAA gives the impression that players are dominating?

Andrew Stevenson had a wRC+ of 131. Was that dominating the league? Jake Cave was 172 in 275 plate appearances. I think that was dominating. Wallner(133) and Julien(139) are similar to Stevenson. Encouraging performances but not dominating. Julien only had 170 plate appearances there. He ranked 31st among all players with 150 or more PAs. Wallner ranked 49th. I don’t think a league would have that many dominating players.

Looking at other players and their St. Paul rank

Prato (153) led the team. It is hard to make sense of his very poor AA(58) numbers. Weight them together and it is close to 120 for the year. Larnach was fifth at 120. The next four were a little above average (104 to 108) in Williams, Celestino, Martin and Perez.

I don’t see the dominant player the Twins missed out on based on performances relative to league. Royce Lewis in his 51 plate appearance was 183.

Nine of twelve · September 26, 2023

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Yep... that's what I was thinking as I posed the question.

They cleared the space for Buxton and they did it with Hicks before that and instead of swimming... they sunk.

Hicks is not a good comparison. Think back to what the Twins' situation was in 2013 when he first came up. The Twins had traded Denard Span and Ben Revere not to clear space for Hicks but because they got offers that were widely viewed as overpayments. They knew Hicks probably wasn't ready but they saw the athletic skills and chose to roll the dice with him, partly because they weren't expecting to contend anyway. Sometimes things work out well and sometimes they don't.

Riverbrian · September 27, 2023

1 hour ago, Nine of twelve said:

Hicks is not a good comparison. Think back to what the Twins' situation was in 2013 when he first came up. The Twins had traded Denard Span and Ben Revere not to clear space for Hicks but because they got offers that were widely viewed as overpayments. They knew Hicks probably wasn't ready but they saw the athletic skills and chose to roll the dice with him, partly because they weren't expecting to contend anyway. Sometimes things work out well and sometimes they don't.

Hicks is a bad comparison because Hicks was on the 40 man roster. Lee doesn't need to be added to the 40 man.

Buxton is a better comparison because Buxton didn't need to be added to the 40 man when he was handed the CF reigns without a net much like is being suggested for Lee.

However... Hicks and Buxton are great examples of what could happen when you just throw a kid out there.

I'm not afraid of youth at the major league level... they often times out perform the vets... but youth can be pretty scary when failure means Clete Thomas has to take over. 😁

I will say this... Lee has done a lot better in the minors than Hicks ever did in the minors. That says a lot about things being a lot better a decade later. Back in 2013 we had to start a guy who hadn't accomplished anything interesting in the minors. 10 years later... we got a guy playing interesting in the minors and we don't have to roster him.

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How many games will the Minnesota Twins win in 2026?