Buxton Not Alone In Early-Season Struggles

Great piece, I love the premise. Of the guys you mention, Buxton has gotten between 6 and 21 fewer plate appearances. So far he has been benched three times, pinch hit for three times, and moved down in the line-up three times. He got hits in back to back games for the first time this season Friday and Saturday...and then was pinch hit for in the 9th of the second game, and then benched on Sunday.

Tim Anderson went 2/4 and 3/5 in his last two games, raising his batting average from 159 to 208.

It seems to me that confidence is a critical element in baseball. Last year, Dozier was not good for two months and they stuck with him, allowing him to get his timing down and gain his confidence. The other players mentioned in this article seem to be being given a considerably longer leash than Buxton to get on track. With the almost continual demotions/benchings/lineup downgrades, it seems like Molitor / the Twins have been actively trying to hurt his confidence, not build it up.

Stick him in a set spot in the lineup every day, preferably 7th or higher so he gets a few extra ABs. Quit pinch-hitting for him. Don't even think about, or hint at, sending him down to AAA.

He is going to start pushing less and striking out less. He is going to put up a two-hit game, or maybe go 3-4 one game. He is going to hit some triples and some home runs. That is going to build his confidence. The hitter he was in the minors (and perhaps September) is going to come to the surface. Give him time to do it, and stand behind instead of undermining him.

It's really the most important thing for this organization to be doing right now.

All this may be true, baseball players struggle.

It does not however, take away the cringe-factor of watching Buxton flail and do so many things wrong and have so little chance of hitting a baseball this spring.

We all hope that changes, and soon.

Meanwhile the pain of watching him at the plate is a joy-kill of epic proportions, and ripples outward to the furthest shores of Twins Territory, making everyone consider how their life/play/leisure decisions could have gone so incredibly wrong.

Great article and thanks for the research.  I was kinda hoping someone would do this. The dark cloud to your silver lining: it seems like Buxton is still the worst player on this list by a long shot, alas.  

While these stats do help, I'm more heartened by seeing Bux take 2 walks (and score the eventual winning run) last night.  I tuned in last night and saw his batting average was over .100 and I was pretty happy to see that.  Small victories, eh?  

There were points in Twins past where Crain and Liriano told the manager "I have no idea what I am doing out there".   They were demoted and to their credit they worked their way through their troubles and came back strong.   Until Buxton says something like that you keep putting him out there and let him work on figuring it out.   Personally, when I see the lineup I like seeing Buxton out there.   I want to witness the game where it all clicks and he gets in a groove.   Its a less interesting lineup when he is not in it.

Watching last nights game made me think something good is about to happen for him.  His approach at the plate as well as his swing looked different.

In his first at bat it was clear to me he was giving himself that extra .00001 second to see the ball as opposed to his earlier approach of trying to pull everything and then being way out ahead of anything offspeed or swing at pitches outside the strike zone. Last night he seemed to be letting the ball get there a little longer and made solid contact (granted they were foul balls and a fly out) but it looked different.

Also, his swings last night looked much easier and smooth.  I personally thought he was up there swinging as hard as he could before, last nights swings looked smooth, almost like he trusts his natural bat speed to be able to do the damage for him without swinging out of his shoes.  Hope the next step is results.  

I still think he has to make his swing more compact and focus on contact. He's long to the hitting zone so he has to start a little early which negates his ability to recognize pitches. I would lower his hands and ditch the leg kick. He needs to look at video of his manager.

28 k's in 57 at-bats. If that near 50% k-rate continues, and the batting average stays below .150, how long until he's sent down to AAA? Mid-May? June 1st? All-Star break? 

 

The Twins are only 1.5 games out of first place in the AL Central, and need MLB-caliber at-bats in order to stay in contention. I don't want to see a team that could play meaningful games in June or July throw away at-bats in April and May. Daniel Palka (.935 OPS in AAA) could make a difference now, or a healthy Zach Granite (CF, on the 7-day DL, and 2016 Minor League Player of the Year) could if he's clicking in a few weeks. 

 

How long can this go on?

You can't send him down to AAA.  He has nothing to prove there.  He needs to make the necessary adjustments in the majors.  

The issue I see with Buxton is he is too coachable. Meaning, when he struggles he takes in too much coaching and overthinks everything.  Hopefully, he can just sit back and go back to his basics.  I don't see any need to send him down, until his lack of offense starts costing us games, compared to what his defense gives the team, compared to whoever we would replace him with. 

I get the sentiment, but he just had his best game at the plate of the year last night and Granite is still injured and will take time to be ready. Palka is not a replacement for Buxton. Even if you shift Rosario or Kepler to Center, that's going to be a huge downgrade to the defense, which our pitching can't handle right now.

I agree.  I think people get too focused on his batting average and strike outs.  Which really do stick out because they are so low and high.  

But as you alluded to, last night was his best night at the plate and I agree.  His at bats were professional (I didn't see the strikeout).  But his line out to left was a great at bat, and he also coaxed two walks. The first one which caused him to be the game winning run, and his speed assured he scored from first.  

Over over the past week I have seen the changes in his AB's.  Once they results stat to show up from the process things could get exciting.  

That all being said he he has dug himself into a huge hole from a stats perspective (which really don't matter or tell the whole story). But he only has 57 official AB's so far this year.  If something were to click tonight and he ends up hitting .260 over his next 500 AB's (probably a stretch, but not an absurd possibility) his batting average would be in .245 range. That along with his defense probably him into 2+ WAR territory for the year. I think he's close. 

I'm really surprised that Scott Schebler is struggling.

28 k's in 57 at-bats. If that near 50% k-rate continues, and the batting average stays below .150, how long until he's sent down to AAA? Mid-May? June 1st? All-Star break? 

 

The Twins are only 1.5 games out of first place in the AL Central, and need MLB-caliber at-bats in order to stay in contention. I don't want to see a team that could play meaningful games in June or July throw away at-bats in April and May. Daniel Palka (.935 OPS in AAA) could make a difference now, or a healthy Zach Granite (CF, on the 7-day DL, and 2016 Minor League Player of the Year) could if he's clicking in a few weeks. 

 

How long can this go on?

See, I agree with this post 100%.   If the Twins are sitting 20 games out on July 1st, I have no problem with Bux playing every day.  But when a team says "We're going to let this team fail", it's really hard to swallow as a fan.  Buxton HAS lost this team a couple of games, let's be honest.  Yes, his glove is helpful!   But would you all be saying the same thing about defense if Castro was batting .105 and had struck out 50% of the time? 

I agree that the lineup is more interesting with Buxton in there.  I also agree that the Twins should keep him in the lineup for now.  But can we quit clapping for pop-outs and dribblers?  He's struck out in every game he's played.  Can we be honest that he's been a heartbreaking disaster so far? 

Everyone who says "keep Buxton in the lineup" is assuming he'll start to hit.  But what if he doesn't?  He hasn't so far.  If he keeps going like this, you have to demote him.  And by then, it'll be too late to salvage a season...so we'll have a crap season and Bux in AAA.  I don't want that. 

You can't send him down to AAA.  He has nothing to prove there.  He needs to make the necessary adjustments in the majors.  

It's not about "proving" anything. I'm kind of tired of hearing that phrase. It's about going to an environment more conducive to learning and making adjustments for young players because the difficulty level isn't ratched up to 11.

That said, I'm not ready to send him down yet since there has been glimmers of progress lately. Let's see if that turns into anything or if it's just a blip.

Forget sending him down. We already have far too many players in the minors that are too good for minor league competition, but haven't been given the chance to prove themselves at the major league level. It's sink or swim time for many of them, but if we never throw them in the deep end of the pool we'll never find out. Get on with it. Put 'em to the test and if they can't cut it, well then have a fire sale. At the least we'd open up some spots in the minors for future prospects that might prove to be major league material.