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In 2022, the Minnesota Twins went 38-for-55 in stolen base attempts. Those numbers are, by far, the lowest in Major League Baseball. In the AL Central, the Tigers had 47 steals, the third-lowest in MLB, but they were caught 24 times. The White Sox ranked 24th with 58 steals, but they were only caught 10 times.
On the other side of the spectrum, the Cleveland Guardians ranked third in baseball with 119 steals, and the Kansas City Royals tied for sixth with 104 steals.
The question now becomes, how will the new rules – specifically the larger bases – alter how the Twins manage the running game, if at all? Will the team suddenly start attempting a lot of stolen bases? Could they steal more, but remain behind other organizations that already incorporated a running game into their strategy?
There are several reasons that the Twins don’t run a lot. First and foremost, their 2022 roster did not include much speed or certainly many base stealers. While Byron Buxton and Nick Gordon have tremendous speed, they also don’t run a lot. The two were tied for the team lead with... six stolen bases. The idea is that they can score from first base on a double, so why risk getting thrown out on a stolen base attempt? Buxton has stolen bases at a high percentage over his career. However, with his leg issues in 2022, it made little sense for him to run. And now, with his recent arthroscopic knee surgery, it’s hard to imagine that he will do a ton of running moving forward.
What happened in the Twins minor leagues, where the larger bases have already been utilized? Here is a quick look at where the Twins affiliate ranks relative to their minor-league level:
Low-A: Ft. Myers Mighty Mussels - 179 SB, 67 CS (Ranked 13th of 30 teams)
High-A: Cedar Rapids Kernels - 143 SB, 44 CS (Ranked 15th of 30 teams)
Double-A: Wichita Wind Surge - 170 SB, 50 CS (Ranked 7th of 30 teams)
Triple-A: St. Paul Saints - 136 SB, 29 CS. (Ranked 15th of 30 teams)
MLB: Minnesota Twins - 38 SB, 17 CS. (Ranked 30th of 30 teams)
So as you can see, the Twins affiliates all attempted a lot of stolen bases throughout the year. So was that just a player or two on each affiliate that accounted for a big chunk of his team’s steals? Let’s take a look at the organizational leaders in stolen bases, noting which leagues they played in during the course of the year.
- Mikey Perez 48/55 (Ft. Myers, St. Paul, Cedar Rapids)
- DaShawn Keirsey 42/49 (Wichita)
- Michael Helman 40/45 (Wichita, St. Paul)
- Austin Martin 35/41 (Wichita)
- Will Holland 32/38 (Cedar Rapids, Wichita)
- Yasser Mercedes 30/35 (DSL Twins)
- Mark Contreras 23/25 (St. Paul)
- Noah Miller 23/30 (Ft. Myers)
- Anthony Prato 22/28 (Cedar Rapids, Wichita)
- Luis Baez 20/23 (Ft. Myers)
- Daniel Ozoria 20/25 (all over)
- Edouard Julien 19/26 (Wichita)
- Jake Rucker 19/31 (Ft. Myers, Cedar Rapids, St. Paul)
- Alerick Soularie 18/23 (Cedar Rapids)
- Willie Joe Garry 17/21 (Cedar Rapids)
It is noteworthy that three individuals stole 40 or more bases. Three others had 30 or more, including Yasser Mercedes who stole 30 bags in just 41 games in the Dominican Summer League. A total of 11 players had 20 or more steals on the season. Whether it was simply situational or if it was an intentional effort to better understand the effect of larger bases, the Twins had a lot of players running often in the minors.
It certainly appears that organizationally the Twins aren’t against stealing bases. It’s really just clear that the big-league club was made up of players that didn’t really work to be a running team. Over time, as the composition of the roster changes, they certainly could run more.
As a rookie in 2003, Rocco Baldelli stole 27 bases and was caught ten times. The following year, he went 17-for-21 in stolen base attempts.
Jon Berti of the Marlins led baseball with 41 stolen bases. Jorge Mateo led the American League with 35 steals, one more than his Orioles teammate Cedric Mullins. Trea Turner stole 27 bases for the Dodgers this year, the most by an impending free agent.
On the other side, Twins catchers did not have a very good year in terms of throwing out would-be base stealers. The Twins allowed 92 stolen bases and threw out just 23 runners. Their 20% caught stealing was tied for 26th in the league. That certainly is not a good number, but it is important to note that the league average was just 25%
Did teams run against the Twins more than average? Technically, yes. There were 115 stolen base attempts against the Twins in 2022. The average was 110, so negligible.
As the Twins look for a catcher, the ability to throw out base stealers should be one consideration, but it shouldn’t be among the top considerations. It can be worked on, to some degree (footwork, transition, release time, pop times), but it is just as important, and I might argue more important, for the Twins to have their pitchers focus a little bit more on trying to give their catchers a chance (change pitch timing, slide steps, etc.). Of those 92 stolen bases, how many times were we able to say “The catcher didn’t have a chance.”
So as the offseason approaches, how do you think that the larger bases will factor into decisions? Will the team add some speed to the roster in an attempt to steal more bases? As they look for a #2 catcher, how important will (or should) their ability to throw out would-be base stealers? Share your thoughts below, and make sure to check out our Offseason Handbook content to identify targets who could improve the team's overall speed and base-stealing proficiency.
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