2018 MLB Draft Day 1 Thread

Any kid named Trout in this draft?

Any kid named Trout in this draft?

If Mike Trout has offspring already, I would take a draft-and-follow strategy even if he is only 3 years old.

 

As for the thread topic, I have literally no hopes one way or the other for whom the Twins draft; they are too far down in the pecking order for me to form an independent opinion. I know that the team will express surprise that whoever they pick would have dropped that far.

We have a pretty young team as it stands so I'd stick with HS grads as much as possible. Try to keep our players young and in their prime as much as we can.

I'm hoping a decent HS position player is there to take. I like Brice Turang, but not sure he makes it that far.

Want Kowar or Rocker, if possible.

I could see a C with one of the top 2 picks, but prefer to stick to BPA approach. Good arms and bats are always in need

I am in the BPA camp.  Just have to keep having decent drafts and signing the players.  Just cannot miss on the first pick.  Only player I have seen I have doubts on is the pitcher with a lot of  stuff, but control issues.  Those seem to have a much bigger bust factor than most.

This is more anecdotal than anything, but I've noticed that teams have had some decent success selecting college pitchers in the early-20s. There usually are one or two college starters than fall for some reason and yet have provided good value for their teams. As some recent examples, Stroman, Wacha, Weaver, Beuhler were all drafted in the 20s. All could have been drafted higher, but each had an issue (size, lake of third pitch, injury concerns) that caused them to slip. Even going back further into Twins history, Gibson - as much of a roller-coaster ride it has been with him - has provided excellent value for the #22 overall pick.

 

With that in mind, I think Logan Gilbert and Jackson Kowar would be great options if available. Both had some top-10 buzz at times, but both have slipped a little due to some potential issues that could be overcome (lower velocity and lack of breaking ball, respectively). 

Doesn't look like they are going to be able to make some of the moves they did last year with guys like Enlow.  Just don't have the ammunition ($$$) to do it.

 

So that should put them taking who they view as the best player available when making each pick.

 

I could be dis-remembering, but didn't the amount when the penalty kicks in for bonuses after the 10th round go up to $125,000 last year?

 

Let's shock the world and see the Twins draft some 18 year old who turns into baseball's next phenom!  Does Manny Machado have any relatives in this draft? 

I'll just assume right now that they come out of round 1 with another SS.  

FYI, this article has now been updated to include some of the projected picks from the experts in their mock drafts. Five different sources, five different projected picks. This is gonna be fun.

 

This is more anecdotal than anything, but I've noticed that teams have had some decent success selecting college pitchers in the early-20s. There usually are one or two college starters than fall for some reason and yet have provided good value for their teams. As some recent examples, Stroman, Wacha, Weaver, Beuhler were all drafted in the 20s. All could have been drafted higher, but each had an issue (size, lake of third pitch, injury concerns) that caused them to slip. Even going back further into Twins history, Gibson - as much of a roller-coaster ride it has been with him - has provided excellent value for the #22 overall pick.

 

With that in mind, I think Logan Gilbert and Jackson Kowar would be great options if available. Both had some top-10 buzz at times, but both have slipped a little due to some potential issues that could be overcome (lower velocity and lack of breaking ball, respectively). 

Agreed completely. A college pitcher might also get up here quicker (not that that should be the deciding factor) and be part of the Lewis/Kiriloff wave.

 

Any kid named Trout in this draft?

I hope we had him change his name to throw off the teams drafting ahead of us.

We should get a better sense this year what profile of player the new regime prefers... The old regime loved toolsy HS OFs and college SP around this draft slot.

Edited June 4, 2018 by Vanimal46

Best pitcher available, it doesn't have to be hard.

I think between the two approaches Andrew detailed in the most recent update, I'd rather see the Twins go with the best player available approach. With a big strength of the system right now being guys between the ages of 18-20, I don't think it would be that bad of a thing if they were handcuffed into taking more college seniors earlier than they typically would on Day 2.

 

It may be a little nerve-racking to basically put all your eggs into one basket, but I say go for it. 

Draft hitters, acquire pitchers. Rany wrote an article on this from a Royals’ fan perspective for The Athletic. https://theathletic.com/375189/2018/05/31/kansas-city-royals-mlb-draft-2018-hitters/

Draft hitters, acquire pitchers. Rany wrote an article on this from a Royals’ fan perspective for The Athletic. https://theathletic.com/375189/2018/05/31/kansas-city-royals-mlb-draft-2018-hitters/

It's a good theory.... But then you have to be willing to trade top ten or so prospects away..... And sign them, and have a tiny window, since you have developed few pitchers.

I would take hitters high and take pitchers in quantity. Hitters have less risk of career-altering injury. Hope for best-case development or the learning of a new pitch to propel the pitchers.

Best pitcher available, it doesn't have to be hard.

 

We did that in 2009 and ended up passing on Trout for Gibson

I think between the two approaches Andrew detailed in the most recent update, I'd rather see the Twins go with the best player available approach. With a big strength of the system right now being guys between the ages of 18-20, I don't think it would be that bad of a thing if they were handcuffed into taking more college seniors earlier than they typically would on Day 2.

 

It may be a little nerve-racking to basically put all your eggs into one basket, but I say go for it.

Once you get to pick 20, I really doubt there's a clear BPA. I think the target (for pick 1) should be a HS pitcher. For the next pick, I'm hoping one of the best remaining picks is a college or HS catcher (preferably college).

We did that in 2009 and ended up passing on Trout for Gibson

I doubt that was how the decision was made. Very much. How many hitters were taken between those two?

 

I doubt that was how the decision was made. Very much. How many hitters were taken between those two?

Two Jared Mitchell and Randal Grichuk

 

We did that in 2009 and ended up passing on Trout for Gibson

 

Sure, it happens. The bottomline is that it is so hard to find great pitching in today's game while you can piece together a lineup relatively easy. I am a firm believer that you draft as much pitching as possible and finding missing pieces among positions players through trades and FA is the way to go.

 

I doubt that was how the decision was made. Very much. How many hitters were taken between those two?

 

Only two, but I agree. If anything, the Twins did go BPA in 2009, Kyle Gibson falling due to a relatively minor injury was all the talk. There was more talk about Gibson than there was about Trout at that time.

 

If anything, I'd think picking a toolsy HS outfielder in Aaron Hicks the year prior would have been a more likely reason for passing on another the following year. But, that's not too likely either. I'd bet if we could go back and look when the Twins were on the clock, way more mock drafts had Kyle Gibson sitting as BPA than they did Mike Trout. 

 

Seems to me, the other guy who was seen as a BPA but was sliding was James Paxton who fell due to sign-ability issues. Which were proven right since he opted not to sign.

Two Jared Mitchell and Randal Grichuk

And Grichuk was also an Angels pick, so really you could swap him and Trout for discussion purposes. So just Mitchell.

Edited June 4, 2018 by ashburyjohn
Inadvertently swapped the two players' names

Just updated this to include links to the freshest mock draft out there. Perfect Game just published their final mock, which has the Twins picking Florida's Jackson Kowar. Here's what Andrew wrote about the 6-foot-5 right-hander in his rankings:

 

"Kowar will rely heavily on his fastball and changeup as his curveball can be inconsistent at times. His fastball will sit around 93-95 but he can pump it up to 97 when he needs it. Kowar’s changeup is easily his best pitch. He has the uncanny ability to throw it to both righties and lefties and will produce a lot of swing and miss with the pitch."

20th overall picks...

 

1993 - Torii Hunter (of)

1994 - Terrence Long (1b)

1995 - David Yocum (p)

1996 - Eric Milton (p)

1997 - Adam Kennedy (ss)

1998 - CC Sabathia (p)

1999 - Vince Faison (of)

2000 - Chris Bootcheck (p)

2001 - Jeremy Sowers (p)

2002 - Denard Span (of)

2003 - Chad Cordero (p)

2004 - Trevor Plouffe (ss)

2005 - Mark Pawelek (p)

2006 - Chris Parmelee (of)

2007 - Chris Withrow (p)

2008 - Josh Fields (p)

2009 - Chad Jenkins (p)

2010 - Kolbrin Vitek (2b)

2011 - Tyler Anderson (p)

2012 - Chris Stratton (p)

2013 - Jonathan Crawford (p)

2014 - Casey Gillaspie (1b)

2015 - Richie Martin (ss)

2016 - Gavin Lux (ss)

2017 - David Peterson (p)

 

Note, the Eric Milton pick was by the Yankees, the other Twins players, were Twins picks.  Most of the pitchers were college arms, especially the recent years.  Milton and Sabathia were HS arms.

 

I'll just assume right now that they come out of round 1 with another SS.  

I'll take another SS!  About 80% of the position players worth taking this high were shortstops for their HS and/or college teams.  They can project to be average to plus defensively at several other positions if/when that time comes.

 

Just updated this to include links to the freshest mock draft out there. Perfect Game just published their final mock, which has the Twins picking Florida's Jackson Kowar. Here's what Andrew wrote about the 6-foot-5 right-hander in his rankings:

 

"Kowar will rely heavily on his fastball and changeup as his curveball can be inconsistent at times. His fastball will sit around 93-95 but he can pump it up to 97 when he needs it. Kowar’s changeup is easily his best pitch. He has the uncanny ability to throw it to both righties and lefties and will produce a lot of swing and miss with the pitch."

Kowar would be a nice pickup at that point, not too risky, fairly safe and I'm always a sucker for a guy with an advanced changeup, there are plenty of scouts who favor Kowar to Singer (who's likely a Top 10 pick) similar a couple years ago when Florida had AJ Puk and Logan Shore.