Qualifying Offer Means Jake Odorizzi Likely To Return

Now that the Twins have extended a QO to Odorizzi, can they still negotiate a longer term contract with him?

This may be telling, giving us a window into how this FO feels about long term pitching deals. I can see no other reason not to ink Odo to a three year deal. He has proven himself on many levels to the point that the only complaint about him are his pitch counts. I especially like the quiet way he expresses his competitive fire and leadership. I want this guy on my team.

Oderizzi will be fine.  I posted that he would get 3/51 from the Twins.  This I feel is a little high, would like to keep it to 3/45 or a little higher.  If he gets 3/51 somewhere else Twins I believe would get a comp pick after round 1 and signing team will give up their second round pick.  Other thing is I do not believe there are many contending clubs that would pay that price for a pitcher that has been about 50-50 to be above average. I still am hoping the Twins sign him.

I hope we keep this guy around. He reminds me of Carl Pavano. Nothing that suggest he is a #1 type guy or anything, but the type of cat that will go out and give you a solid 5-6 almost every game and once in awhile jump up and give you more. He's a perfect #3 type guy. IMO, he has lots of value both here and on the FA market. One of those guys that you pretty much know what you are going to get from him every game. I mean he's pretty much been the same guy his entire career. He was good in Tampa and he has been good here. With the situation the Twins are in, even if he decides he doesn't want the QO, I would make almost 100% sure this guy is on the roster for the next few years. Can't afford to let him go. 

Smart move by the Twins. $18M is a bit of an overpay for Odorizzi, but it's worth the premium for the 1 year deal if he accepts. I would prefer a 3 year deal with him at a lower AAV (3/$45?) but that might not be realistic. It might take a 4th year to induce him to sign a multi-year deal, or he might insist on a higher AAV.

Regardless, this fills a spot in the rotation with a quality starter. If Jake Odorizzi is our #3 starter going into the season, that's not bad at all.

Does Odorizzi Want to be a MN Twin in 2020?? I hope we keep him but he always looked unhappy compared to players like Romo or the Bomba squad....You have to love where you are to be truly successful is my opinion.

1.)  We sign him to a 3-year/$51 million deal.

Pro - Fantastic!!!  We got a guy for the remainder of his prime.  He's proven, and there is nothing to suggest he doesn't deserve it.

Con - Other teams can have at him.  Offer the moon and we can't do anything about it..

2.)  We give him the qualifying offer.

Pro or Con? - He accepts it.  He has another exceptional year, he signs for $60-$80 million for 3-4 years instead of wrapping him up at 3/$51 million.

Con - He has a down year, and we've ruined his chances of cashing in on his ONE big shot at a favorable contract...but what should we care, it's a business.  It's not Minnesota Nice.

I would sign him to three years at $48, and make $3 of it a signing bonus, to bring his 2020 numbers up to the QO level. Put in an option for after the three years at $20 for year 4. Locking up a 30 year old proven starter is not a bad idea, especially since we have 4 spots open. 

I'd offer Big Mike 2 years for $13 each with a third year option at $15 as well. Now we have Jose, Jake and Mike.  Not so scary vacancy wise anymore.  Then go after Mad Baum, Wheeler or another quality arm.  Which leaves the 5th spot open  for Dauber or one of the others like Busdar or Smeltzer. Not an exciting set of moves but not horrible. Plus it keeps the band together. Chemistry matters.

Sign Romo, just for his energy and know how.

But adding someone like Smith is doable. 

I do not understand why everybody thinks the twins have $70 million to spend. on 1 year contracts, sure, but we are not talking about one year contracts. The FO has to take into account that almost everybody already on the roster will be more expensive next year, eating into next year's budget. Not to mention trying to tie guys up on long term contracts, which will also consume more of this year's budget, as well as maybe extra money next year. 

You can't just look aat one year.

Here in St. Louis where he is from 30 miles away some fans have shown interest in him. He does well against bad teams, but, against the top teams you can't count on him to shut the Dodgers down.

Well, pitching is hard to find and expensive.

I do not understand why everybody thinks the twins have $70 million to spend. on 1 year contracts, sure, but we are not talking about one year contracts. The FO has to take into account that almost everybody already on the roster will be more expensive next year, eating into next year's budget. Not to mention trying to tie guys up on long term contracts, which will also consume more of this year's budget, as well as maybe extra money next year. 

You can't just look aat one year.

Yes, but the roster is flexible year to year as well. We have a bunch of young guys down on the farm, some of them will be used and higher paid players on the MLB roster moved in trades, or let walk in FA as well.

What is wrong with going for it for a season or two? 

Exactly!

And a year from now, Cruz, Rosario, others could be gone via FA, trade, etc.

As to your "going for it" comment, $70M would put the Twins at around $140M total. Still below the mean the past few seasons.

Yep, 70 mill is alot. Let it rip and use up all of the money if you think it can help your club. Play for now for a change. If every there was a time to go after it, it is now. 

Worse case a few of the guys you sign don't take you anywhere. Well, then they can be moved again in a year or two for more prospects to make up ground in the area you lost a few of your own by not signing, trading, etc. 

I don't really understand the hesitancy to sign a guy who has a QO. You're giving up your second best pick.... If you could trade picks, would contenders really not deal their second pick for a good player?

You aren't just giving up your 2nd best pick though.

You're giving up your second best pick, AND full market salary price.

Why do that when you can just sign a FA from a similar tier for just the money?

If draft picks could be traded, they'd look for excess value. Just like any other trade, less excess value equals less trade return. So, no, I don't believe teams would trade their 2nd best pick for a player with no excess value, if they were allowed to.

a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush