Worley to the Pirates

[UCLA_YANKEE_COLA]

I don't understand the deal but if this is the Twins worst personnel move of 2014 let's call it a win. He's turrble.

[DaveW]

I'm still mocking the trade for Worley and May....that is the one that hurts.

 

Why does that hurt? Revere is a 4th OF (though a nice one at that) and May still has plenty of time/upside to pay off.

[Mike Sixel]

Well, I said in that post that I don't think he is a 4th OF......and May is an unknown, as I said earlier in the thread. I am baffled people are so sure Revere isn't good.....he was 24 and had just put up 3 WAR when dealt......and, frankly, I'm tired of only being worried about 2015/16/17, and waiting for some future that keeps getting moved out a year.

 

We don't agree. Revere has value imo, and you don't think so.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Any word if the Pohlads will be using the cash to fund a Broadway play?

 

Bill Pohlad does produce Hollywood movies... maybe Worley will be indirectly responsible for funding the sequel "Another 12 Years a Slave"

[savvyspy]

A couple things to keep in mind:

 

1. [trolling comment deleted]

 

2. It was obvious the FO lost confidence in him. Cripes Dave St Peter blasted him at the Twins Daily event and he usually finds good things to say about everyone.

 

3. Worley's performance proved he is roster filler at this point. He can be replaced by just about anyone in the organization or off the street. Why not try someone new? Its not like is someone got hurt they were ever going to call him up.

 

4. He likely asked for the trade. While the Twins FO might be one of the worst in professional sports from just about every measure, the one thing they are not is petty. They aren't going to keep a guy they don't value against his wishes just because they can. They should get credit for that.

 

5. Maybe they have their eye on someone else's roster to take the spot in Rochester through a trade or waiver pick up.

 

In the end there was something odd about Worley the entire time he was here. Part of me thinks he was damaged goods coming over from Philadelphia. You don't go from being a promising young pitcher doing it in the majors to honestly maybe being the worst pitcher in the league in 6 months. Injury would be the most likely cause of that quick decline. The initial injury probably happened before he came over from Philadelphia.

 

Maybe a new start with a new club helps him. Wouldn't be the first time a player got better after leaving the team.

[cmathewson]

Part of me thinks he was damaged goods coming over from Philadelphia. You don't go from being a promising young pitcher doing it in the majors to honestly maybe being the worst pitcher in the league in 6 months. Injury would be the most likely cause of that quick decline. The initial injury probably happened before he came over from Philadelphia.

 

We saw this with Blackburn. He had the feel of the sinker and was decent for a couple of years, on par with Worley's Philly time when you factor in league differences. As is common with guys who throw a lot of sinkers, he developed bone chips. The clean out didn't find anything else (at least anything they made known to the public), but he was a different pitcher after the clean out than before. I suspect it's three things:

 

1. He never regained the forearm strength you need to throw his signature pitch. I.e. he was damaged goods. Perhaps there was some UCL fraying caused by the chips that went unreported and affected his ability to get on top of the ball and pitch "out front" to use Bert's terminology.

 

2. He never was as good as his numbers suggested. Maybe the red flag was all those called third strikes. The way he threw the sinker, it was basically a trick pitch. Once people figured it out, they at least fouled it off.

 

3. His long layoff led to losing the feel for his trick pitch.

 

I suspect it was a combination, but his comments suggest it was mostly 1. He said "I couldn't get the ball down to save my life last year." That suggests it was more physical than mental. The fact that it is 18 months since the surgery and he still can't get the ball down means he might be done, at least until he has TJ surgery.

[ashbury]

1. The Pohlads ALWAYS need more money. Its their goal in everything they do.

 

Moderator's note: we've taken a hands-off approach to this thread, but if posters are going to pull in the same old themes that are at best tangentially related then we'll need to clamp down before a real food-fight breaks out. Someone already took the trouble to start a thread on "accountability" which is where some of this present discussion could have gone, and if someone else really wants to talk about the Pohlads' fiscal policies it would be wise to do likewise.

[Trevor0333]

Other pitchers with less potential, let alone far less actual success in the majors, have been given more chances by the Twins to prove themselves than Worley was. Good heavens, Kyle Gibson is the same age as Worley, has never succeeded in the majors, was terrible with the Twins last year... and he's been awarded the Twins' only open rotation spot.

 

Also, doesn't it seem like there's almost no chance that Rochester doesn't rely on at least one pitcher this season who is the very definition of a non-prospect?

 

This is where "scouting" comes into play. Gibson has good movement & sink on his pitches, Worley throws the straightest fastball Ive ever seen. I have no idea how he had almost 2 solid debut seasons with the Phillies.

 

Gibson missed 1.5 years on TJ, also which the first year back also widely considered to be a throw away year. He was still much more effective than Worley was in the minors last year.

 

I have 0 issues with letting Worley walk for nothing, obviously if a single other team thought so they would have moved even a C level prospect for him.

[Dman]

This is where "scouting" comes into play. Gibson has good movement & sink on his pitches, Worley throws the straightest fastball Ive ever seen. I have no idea how he had almost 2 solid debut seasons with the Phillies.

 

Gibson missed 1.5 years on TJ, also which the first year back also widely considered to be a throw away year. He was still much more effective than Worley was in the minors last year.

 

I have 0 issues with letting Worley walk for nothing, obviously if a single other team thought so they would have moved even a C level prospect for him.

 

 

I agree in the games I watched Worley there was very little movement on the ball and the batters were squaring it up with ease. He needed better stuff to keep them off balance. Maybe if he starts throwing his slider more things will be better for him but the stuff I saw wasn't good enough to stay in MLB.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Worth remembering that Worley's "two seasons" of success in Philadelphia were actually both partial seasons, only about 130 IP each. And the last half of his 2nd partial season for Philly was pretty mediocre (65 IP, 5.68 ERA, 6.4 K/9) so his real run of quality MLB pitching was only about 1 full season. And he really didn't have that great of a K rate in the minors either -- his 2011 season (and early 2012) was really a standout in that regard.

 

The Phillies have a very good recent track record with pitching -- none of Happ, Worley, or Kendrick were ever that highly regarded or "top 100" prospects, but I'll be darned if they didn't all become roughly league average starters in MLB (not an easy thing to do). And the Phillies successfully sold high on both Happ & Worley, and gotten some cheap innings eaten by Kendrick the last few years.

[LaBombo]

I have 0 issues with letting Worley walk for nothing, obviously if a single other team thought so they would have moved even a C level prospect for him.

That's a false choice. It presumes that Worley or any other Twin has no value to the organization if they can't get a C prospect for them. That's empirically not true.

 

All Worley had to do to have value for the Twins was to have more upside than a Rochester pitcher who is older or who has never succeeded at the MLB level or who has never even profiled as major leaguer. My guess is that Rochester will employ at least one pitcher in 2014 who fits all three of those criteria.

[ashbury]

My guess is that Rochester will employ at least one pitcher in 2014 who fits all three of those criteria.

 

How about at the start of 2014? Because that's when the decision had to be made. Hanging on to someone because he might excel a scrubini in July isn't a reason to keep him.

[Craig Arko]

Bill Pohlad does produce Hollywood movies... maybe Worley will be indirectly responsible for funding the sequel "Another 12 Years a Slave"

 

You must mean "12 Years a Slave: Age of Ultron."

[LaBombo]

How about at the start of 2014? Because that's when the decision had to be made. Hanging on to someone because he might excel a scrubini in July isn't a reason to keep him.

See your point. Was thinking of the rotation eventually but yeah, probably at the start there will be a middle reliever who nobody sees as having a major league career.

 

In fact, if you increase the threshold to 'likely to contribute to a contender', there's already a familiar name who everybody is pulling for but expecting virtually nothing from down the road: Guerrier.

 

Obviously expectations were minimal after last season, but the failure to employ Worley in a bullpen role to try to salvage him will still puzzle me even if he's out of baseball in a year or two, which is probably not a whole lot less likely than him resurrecting his career.

[cmathewson]

After he cleared waivers, they said Worley would go to Rochester to pitch in the bullpen. Then they signed Guerrier back. Then they sold Worley to the Pirates. I don't think that chain of events is an accident. They have no room for him in the Rochester bullpen. That's how little they think of him. If you can name one pitcher slated for that bullpen who has less upside than Vance Worley, you might have a point. I cannot. These are the six relievers they have (assuming no promotions from AA):

 

Tonkin

Ibarra

Pressly

Raley

Guerra

Guerrier

[Brock Beauchamp]

While the Twins FO might be one of the worst in professional sports from just about every measure

 

Hyperbole much? The Twins front office certainly deserves some condemnation for the past three seasons but this same group of people is what brought the city playoff seasons six years out of ten.

 

I'm not sure how you can even compare them to the perennial doormats of the sporting world.

 

For example, the team that plays 41 home games about 200 yards from Target Field.

[Trevor0333]

That's a false choice. It presumes that Worley or any other Twin has no value to the organization if they can't get a C prospect for them. That's empirically not true.

 

All Worley had to do to have value for the Twins was to have more upside than a Rochester pitcher who is older or who has never succeeded at the MLB level or who has never even profiled as major leaguer. My guess is that Rochester will employ at least one pitcher in 2014 who fits all three of those criteria.

 

I don't quite understand the false choice wording but if no other team is even willing to claim him & he's not good enough to make the Twins roster. What value does he have? Not enough to take up a roster spot & continue to get scorched by AAA hitters even.

 

Honestly it seems somewhat obvious they wanted to put him in AAA & he was going to have to earn a starting spot there even & he had no interest so he asked to be traded/released. Otherwise why even try to reassign him after he cleared waivers over just outright cutting him.

[jharaldson]

If you can name one pitcher slated for that bullpen who has less upside than Vance Worley, you might have a point. I cannot. These are the six relievers they have (assuming no promotions from AA):

 

Tonkin

Ibarra

Pressly

Raley

Guerra

Guerrier

Deolis Guerra has less upside. He has been in the minors for 8 years now and is coming off a significant shoulder surgery. He does not crack prospect lists anymore:

 

http://twinsdaily.com/content.php/2463-Minnesota-Twins-Top-50-Prospects-Summary

 

I would absolutely prefer starting Deolis in AA or dumping him outright over selling Worley to the Pirates.

[cmathewson]

Deolis Guerra has less upside. He has been in the minors for 8 years now and is coming off a significant shoulder surgery. He does not crack prospect lists anymore:

 

http://twinsdaily.com/content.php/2463-Minnesota-Twins-Top-50-Prospects-Summary

 

I would absolutely prefer starting Deolis in AA or dumping him outright over selling Worley to the Pirates.

 

Guerra is younger, throws harder, and, unlike Worley, has an out pitch. Worley does not have on plus pitch. He's done.

[LaBombo]

If you can name one pitcher slated for that bullpen who has less upside than Vance Worley, you might have a point. I cannot. These are the six relievers they have (assuming no promotions from AA):

 

Tonkin

Ibarra

Pressly

Raley

Guerra

Guerrier

 

To me, in this context at least, 'upside' means potential to show lasting improvement, not have a better season than last year or career norms. Otherwise, what's the point of the discussion? One good year in AAA relief has very little value to the future of the franchise.

 

So looking at your list in that regard, Guerrier is obviously off, and I would argue as jharaldson did that after last year's derailment and 8 years in the minors without earning a look in the majors, Guerra is too.

 

Raley looks to me as if the Twins had lost Diamond in the Rule V and wanted to go out and get the next closest thing, so that's a no.

 

Ibarra is a marginally better prospect than Raley, and probably makes the cut just because he's a lefty.

 

Pressly barely makes it as well, primarily on the strength of a good 2013 despite weak peripherals.

 

So basically half that group looks to me to have little to no upside relative to what Worley has done or even relative to the high end projection of a Worley converted to relief.

 

Not everybody turns into Glen Perkins just by going to the pen, but it's not rare for failed starters to succeed in relief.

[jharaldson]

Guerra is younger, throws harder, and, unlike Worley, has an out pitch. Worley does not have on plus pitch. He's done.

 

Can you provide any data to show Guerra throws harder than Worley? Fangraphs has Worley at 94 max and 89.4 average as a starter which normally increases when moved to a relief role (compare to Perkins):

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?playerid=6435&position=P

 

I can't find specifics on Guerra but when searching I came to this article from Gleeman in 2013

 

Guerra no longer has much upside and has lost velocity since his teenage peak

 

http://aarongleeman.com/2013/01/24/top-40-twins-prospects-of-2013-40-39-38-37-36/

 

Worley has had over 260 innings of major league success and has more upside than an 8 year minor league free agent coming off life threatening shoulder surgery.

 

In an effort to forge an agreement I will stipulate that both guys are unlikely to ever make an impact in the majors again and that we are splitting hairs over who has a 5% chance and who has a 2% chance.

[Dman]

Guerra is younger, throws harder, and, unlike Worley, has an out pitch. Worley does not have on plus pitch. He's done.

 

I tend to agree with you here. Guerra actually has movement on his pitches and he looked great in spring training. I think that if his shoulder stays healthy he is going to make his doubters look foolish. If he stays healthy I would not be surprised to see him get called up this year.

[LaBombo]

I can't find specifics on Guerra but when searching I came to this article from Gleeman in 2013

Speaking of Gleeman, he isn't terribly high on Ibarra either. From this past fall:

 

"Speaking of left-handers with nice-looking ERAs and poor secondary numbers, the Twins added 24-year-old reliever Edgar Ibarra to the 40-man roster. He posted a 1.93 ERA this year between Double-A and Triple-A to convince the Twins he needed protecting from the Rule 5 draft, but he's not a hard-thrower and a 54-to-29 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 61 innings was unimpressive. Ibarra also had a 4.69 ERA with poor control and just 69 strikeouts in 79 innings last season."

 

As far as I can see, neither Guerra or Ibarra cracked his top 40 prospect list.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Any word if the Pohlads will be using the cash to fund a Broadway play?

Or the movie studio

[stringer bell]

Deolis Guerra has less upside. He has been in the minors for 8 years now and is coming off a significant shoulder surgery. He does not crack prospect lists anymore:

 

http://twinsdaily.com/content.php/2463-Minnesota-Twins-Top-50-Prospects-Summary

I would absolutely prefer starting Deolis in AA or dumping him outright over selling Worley to the Pirates.

I think Guerra will pitch for the Twins sometime this year. He looked very good in Ft. Myers and he is reportedly healthy, which is the reason why he has struggled and also why he isn't considered much of a prospect.

[jokin]

Can you provide any data to show Guerra throws harder than Worley? Fangraphs has Worley at 94 max and 89.4 average as a starter which normally increases when moved to a relief role (compare to Perkins):

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?playerid=6435&position=P

 

I can't find specifics on Guerra but when searching I came to this article from Gleeman in 2013

 

 

 

http://aarongleeman.com/2013/01/24/top-40-twins-prospects-of-2013-40-39-38-37-36/

 

Worley has had over 260 innings of major league success and has more upside than an 8 year minor league free agent coming off life threatening shoulder surgery.

 

In an effort to forge an agreement I will stipulate that both guys are unlikely to ever make an impact in the majors again and that we are splitting hairs over who has a 5% chance and who has a 2% chance.

 

Gleeman is wrong as often as he is right, but thanks just the same for your own voice of reason, I put much more stock in how well you properly parse out this situation mathematically.

[cmathewson]

Can you provide any data to show Guerra throws harder than Worley? Fangraphs has Worley at 94 max and 89.4 average as a starter which normally increases when moved to a relief role (compare to Perkins):

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?playerid=6435&position=P

 

I can't find specifics on Guerra but when searching I came to this article from Gleeman in 2013

 

 

 

http://aarongleeman.com/2013/01/24/top-40-twins-prospects-of-2013-40-39-38-37-36/

 

Worley has had over 260 innings of major league success and has more upside than an 8 year minor league free agent coming off life threatening shoulder surgery.

 

In an effort to forge an agreement I will stipulate that both guys are unlikely to ever make an impact in the majors again and that we are splitting hairs over who has a 5% chance and who has a 2% chance.

 

I was at the game last Tuesday. Worley hit 91 a couple of times and mostly sat at 88. He did not get one swinging strike in two plus innings of pitching. 11 hits, 7 outs. Even the outs were loud. Guerra came in and sat at 93. Struck out two swinging in one inning of pitching. I counted eight swinging strikes for five hitters.

[jokin]

Speaking of Gleeman, he isn't terribly high on Ibarra either. From this past fall:

 

"Speaking of left-handers with nice-looking ERAs and poor secondary numbers, the Twins added 24-year-old reliever Edgar Ibarra to the 40-man roster. He posted a 1.93 ERA this year between Double-A and Triple-A to convince the Twins he needed protecting from the Rule 5 draft, but he's not a hard-thrower and a 54-to-29 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 61 innings was unimpressive. Ibarra also had a 4.69 ERA with poor control and just 69 strikeouts in 79 innings last season."

 

As far as I can see, neither Guerra or Ibarra cracked his top 40 prospect list.

 

In this case, I concur with Gleeman on Ibarra, Ibarra had a really strong scoreless streak going in New Britain last summer- the only sign of dominance at any point in his career, but he doesn't even have a great split, so anything they get from him will be a bonus and hopefully at least a decent placeholder, I would hope they could trade him at a high point as part of a package- which is why they should be shopping around more in Rule 5, FA and waiver-claiming situations in search of live arms, especially lefties.

[jokin]

I was at the game last Tuesday. Worley hit 91 a couple of times and mostly sat at 88. He did not get one swinging strike in two plus innings of pitching. 11 hits, 7 outs. Even the outs were loud. Guerra came in and sat at 93. Struck out two swinging in one inning of pitching. I counted eight swinging strikes for five hitters.

 

So, IYO, is the loss of velocity evidence that Worley still isn't healthy?

[cmathewson]

So, IYO, is the loss of velocity evidence that Worley still isn't healthy?

 

Yes. No one wants to admit it, because it's not in anyone's best interest, least of all Worley.