Article: The Case for Stephen Drew

[Mike Sixel]

How is saving millions a good idea, if those millions are just pocketed? Why do people care if they pay Drew, if the alternative is pocketing the money?

[jokin]

Florimon hit .180/.229/.230 against lefties last year.

 

That's supposed to be his strong side.

 

To be fair, Florimon is much better against lefties throughout his minor league career....758 OPS in MiLB vs LHP.

[jokin]

How is saving millions a good idea, if those millions are just pocketed? Why do people care if they pay Drew, if the alternative is pocketing the money?

 

I don't see how a one or up to three-year $10M deal hurts the master plan for the long term. The days of the need for hoarding every nickel are over under the current business model, for both the franchise and the league.

[jokin]

I doubt it. Both teams had him in a contract year. The DBacks dumped him at the deadline for a bag of balls, but the Red Sox offered him a 14m contract.

 

The DBacks handling of Drew reminds me of the Twins handling of Hardy. IIRC there was some chatter from Gardy or the FO questioning Hardy's toughness before they traded him (also for a bag of balls).

 

 

It was both, depending on which day of the week it was, I'm sure they wish they could have that one back.....hopefully they've learned from the mistake.

[TheLeviathan]

Who should pursue him (besides the Twins)?

 

Well, one that jumps out is the Mets. Also the Giants, Toronto, Houston, Miami, Pittsburgh all could benefit from him.

[jokin]

Well, one that jumps out is the Mets. Also the Giants, Toronto, Houston, Miami, Pittsburgh all could benefit from him.

 

I think the Boras factor has to come in play here, particularly for the Giants. If we recall, Boras stuck the Giants with the Zito contract.

 

Houston and Miami? Not ready for FA primetime at this point. Are both Pitt and Toronto tapped out for expanding their payrolls. The Mets sound like they're playing possum in hopes of driving the price down a bit. One thing we know for sure, the Twins aren't anywhere close to being tapped out.

[Marta Shearing]

How is saving millions a good idea, if those millions are just pocketed? Why do people care if they pay Drew, if the alternative is pocketing the money?

I have never understood why so many people are concerned about saving Pohlad's money. As if 3/$30m to drew would hamstring the franchise. For goodness sake, even with their signings, payroll has barely gone up, and with this new massive mlb revenue deal, the money is flowing in. They SHOULD be overpaying right now BECAUSE THEY CAN!

[Brock Beauchamp]

No, that's not what I said. I said that when doing a cost benefit analysis between Florimon and Drew that the law of diminishing returns comes into play big time because you have to spend 20-26X plus give up a second round draft pick to get a negative return on defense and less than 2x return on offense.

 

Drew, if healthy, is worth anywhere between 1-2 wins more than Florimon. At about $6m per win, that's a decent return on free agency.

 

As far as a potential Hardy trade goes, nowhere did I suggest giving up X player or X prospect in a trade. I merely think the Twins would be wise to at least give the Orioles a call and see what options are available instead of simply giving Drew what he wants without flipping over every other stone first.

 

You didn't mention a prospect in return for Hardy but I listed one... Berrios. While the pricetag for one year of Hardy might not be quite that high, it's probably where Baltimore would open negotiations. In any case, what you'd give up for Hardy is more likely to succeed than a second round draft pick. It takes talent to get talent. The draft, past the first ten picks, is basically a crapshoot.

 

One thing nobody seems to consider very much is that Florimon has only played one full season in the MLB and that he may improve both defensively and offensively. This would add even more weight on the cost-benefit scale.

 

Florimon hasn't hit anywhere since he was a teenager in rookie ball. He is 27 years old. Expecting him to improve at this point is a bit like wishing upon a star.

 

As far as platooning Drew with Florimon. I'm really not against the idea to be honest. I have nothing against Drew and I think the two of them would do a fine job in 2014. I'm merely looking at it from a cost-benefit / business perspective. If the Twins are willing to spend the money, then that's great. But I have a feeling that Terry Ryan is thinking more like me and less like you on this issue.

 

Florimon and Drew have the same weak/strong sides at the plate so a platoon makes no sense. Escobar, on the other hand...

 

I said before that the Twins would be better off spending their $ in other area's where they would get more bang for their buck and so far they have done that (starting pitching), which doesn't surprise me at all. Hopefully they continue doing that and only sign Drew if all of their other options have run out (e.g. Garza is signed, teams are asking for too much in trade for X player) and they still have $ left to spend.

 

Given the Twins current roster, what other position can you find a better bang for buck than shortstop?

 

C - Pinto - sink or swim, not going to add value here

1B - Mauer

2B - Dozier, backed up by Rosario in 2015

SS - Florimon

3B - Plouffe, backed up by Sano

LF - Willingham

CF - Scrub Player X, backed up by Hicks and later, Buxton

RF - Arcia

DH - Parmelee/Arcia/Willingham/Plouffe

 

Looking at that lineup, there isn't much room for improvement that doesn't involve either trading a player to make room or blocking a young player coming through the system.

[Thrylos]

How is saving millions a good idea, if those millions are just pocketed? Why do people care if they pay Drew, if the alternative is pocketing the money?

 

Devil's advocate: What if the alternative is signing Cuban, Japanese and Korean Free agents (that are not subject to the international FA cap?)

[jokin]

You didn't mention a prospect in return for Hardy but I listed one... Berrios. While the pricetag for one year of Hardy might not be quite that high, it's probably where Baltimore would open negotiations. In any case, what you'd give up for Hardy is more likely to succeed than a second round draft pick. It takes talent to get talent. The draft, past the first ten picks, is basically a crapshoot.

 

 

 

Florimon hasn't hit anywhere since he was a teenager in rookie ball. He is 27 years old. Expecting him to improve at this point is a bit like wishing upon a star.

 

 

 

Florimon and Drew have the same weak/strong sides at the plate so a platoon makes no sense. Escobar, on the other hand...

 

The Orioles are shopping for major league talent, which the Twins could fill, making it a win-win deal.

 

I'm all for Escobar in the platoon in place of Florimon, plus he could also fill the UTIL role- and he's only just-turned 25 (last Sunday), with a fighting chance to improve at least marginally with the bat, not 27 like Florimon is.

[jokin]

Devil's advocate: What if the alternative is signing Cuban, Japanese and Korean Free agents (that are not subject to the international FA cap?)

 

As long as they don't use the as-yet still-unnamed scout who gave the go-ahead on Nishi....then.... sure thing.

[Paul Pleiss]

It makes me happy that I'm not the only who who keeps mistakenly thinking/saying/typing J.D. Drew instead of Stephen Drew. I've made no secret that I think signing Drew would be a good more for the organization, and an immediate substantial upgrade (offensively). 3 years and 30 million, I'd make that deal if the Twins legitimately think they can contend within the division this season. If they are still just throwing guys against the wall and waiting for the talent to move through the system then move along, the only trouble is that unless Danny Santana has a great season in 2014 he's not going to be ready until 2015, and probably 2016 and there don't appear to be any great SS options coming available next season either.

 

I wont be surprised if the Twins pass on Drew, but I sure would be tickled pink if they could ink him to a deal.

[DocBauer]

No doubt SS is the most prime position on the field, and in the lineup, for the Twins to improve on, considering who is either currently at other positions, or should be very soon. And I have no doubt that Drew would indeed improve the over all lineup, though I feel we would slip slightly defensively.

 

Make no mistake, while SP has been our greatest weakness and priority, better now but still in need of improvement, (Garza!), I would be quite happy if we could also afford to bring on Drew for $8-10M for a handful of years.

 

But if I play devil's advocate myself, I have to ask how much real improvement you're getting by the move? Adding Drew's "better offense" at the SS position is not the same as a slugger/rbi producer, top of the leader board batting average, or bona-fide dangerous leadoff hitter.

 

And I am not one to suggest the Pohlads squirrel away potential payroll dollars for the sake of a mystery nest egg somewhere. But just because you have money to spend, doesn't always mean you should spend it.

 

Let's say we make the move for Garza and then also follow through with Drew, pretty much tapping all payroll for this season, and offering some limitation in flexibility for next season. It could make a trade move or FA signing more difficult. Also, are we positive there isn't a better SS available next year when the team may be theoretically closer to contention? Or could we trade some assets in the system to make a move for a younger, talented SS that we could control for longer as the team grows in to contention together?

 

Again, nothing against Drew, I'm just not sure it's a prudent move at this juncture than improves us enough to make the deal.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The Orioles are shopping for major league talent, which the Twins could fill, making it a win-win deal.

 

I'm all for Escobar in the platoon in place of Florimon, plus he could also fill the UTIL role- and he's only just-turned 25 (last Sunday), with a fighting chance to improve at least marginally with the bat, not 27 like Florimon is.

 

Given what Baltimore probably wants for one season of Hardy, I'd rather have Drew. If the Twins can't retain Hardy after 2014, they will have given up some kind of prospect for no good reason, as they're likely to miss the playoffs anyway. At least with Drew, you're only sacrificing a draft pick and you get him for at least two seasons, maybe three (but hopefully two).

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

The DBacks handling of Drew reminds me of the Twins handling of Hardy. IIRC there was some chatter from Gardy or the FO questioning Hardy's toughness before they traded him (also for a bag of balls).

 

IMO this above is maybe the strongest case for a Drew signing, that he comes to Minnesota and enjoys the cocoon of our clubhouse so much (like Pelfrey and Kubel apparently have) that he falls in love with baseball again and wants to be on the field every day. JJ Hardy, he of the nagging injury, went to Baltimore and hasn't missed a game in almost three years. Can Drew be the same story? He seems to be trending downward and like someone said, the slope could be steep. But JP3700 in the OP does make a persuasive case with the Drew/Florimon wRC+ differential, too.

 

I agree with the previous two posters that this is a tough call. It's gotta be a tough call for Ryan. We need offense and there it is. But Drew is 30 and 30 is not the new 20 for modern athletes. Again, a red flag. SS is not a traditional platoon position. Might be nice to keep a Florimon/Sano left infield side, too, for when Sano comes up NLT August I'd hope. My gut says this is less about the numbers and more about the feel. I think Ryan passes and maintains the SS/2B combo that worked pretty well last year. But you guys have moved me from the No camp to the Either way camp and it wouldn't bother me as much now if Ryan does sign him.

[AHSaves]

With the payroll we have available, I think I'd be a little let down if we didn't get Garza or Drew. Drew would be a little cheaper and (finally) an upgrade to the offense, but I see Garza living up to his contract a little better. It seems the Twins are looking at around 3 years for both.

 

Who would you rather have? Also, imagine we got both. Is that an upgrade for the organization's future?

[Brock Beauchamp]

With the payroll we have available, I think I'd be a little let down if we didn't get Garza or Drew. Drew would be a little cheaper and (finally) an upgrade to the offense, but I see Garza living up to his contract a little better. It seems the Twins are looking at around 3 years for both.

 

Who would you rather have? Also, imagine we got both. Is that an upgrade for the organization's future?

 

Drew isn't going to be a little cheaper than Garza, he's going to come in under half the price.

[Major League Ready]

Given what Baltimore probably wants for one season of Hardy, I'd rather have Drew. If the Twins can't retain Hardy after 2014, they will have given up some kind of prospect for no good reason, as they're likely to miss the playoffs anyway. At least with Drew, you're only sacrificing a draft pick and you get him for at least two seasons, maybe three (but hopefully two).

 

I am on the fence on this one but it should be pointed out that while you make Berrios sound like a much steeper price than the pick we would give up, Berrios was drafted with a pick pretty close to this pick. TaiJuan Walker was drafted with the 43rd pick. And, while the odds are not great for picks in the low 40s, the odds of Drew contributing to a contender are zero for the 1st two years. IF he is still health and playing at a high level he could contribute in 2016 but those odds are not high either. I guess it comes down to if you want to play the odds to favor building a contender later or a 500 team now?

[amjgt]

Drew isn't going to be a little cheaper than Garza, he's going to come in under half the price.

 

AAV projection is what 12M vs 17M?

[JP3700]

Well, you're also speculating about his production, or lack there-of, being injury related.

 

I'm curious why you continued to assert that Worley and Diamond's poor performance in 2013 was injury related and then don't give Drew the same consideration. Especially when there is statistical evidence that supports it.

 

It could also be that this guy has a terrible makeup and that's why he's failed to live up to expectations and stay on the field and he exasperated the organization that was banking on him for years.

 

Prior to that ankle injury, he had been on the DL one time. Here was his games played in the prior four full seasons: 150, 152, 135, 151. He was on pace for another 150+ games before he got hurt in 2011. So what more should he have done for his organization?

 

I've read nothing but good from managers and players in regards to Drew. I'd rather believe those comments than the one negative comment that I've read (other than fans) from an owner that also called out his 24 year old star player before shipping him out of town.

 

I'm on board signing him because our shortstop situation is terrible and we should be willing to take chances. But if this guy is the picture of a bargain at shortstop, there are a lot of teams that should be after that. And since so many front offices are ignoring him with virtually nothing else left on the hitter's market - it does speak to issues beyond the numbers you are crunching, no?

 

Well, one that jumps out is the Mets. Also the Giants, Toronto, Houston, Miami, Pittsburgh all could benefit from him.

 

As you mentioned, our shortstop situation is terrible. Other than the Mets, the other teams mentioned are even further out of contention(Marlins, Astros) or have a viable shortstop(Giants, Blue Jays, Pirates).

 

The competition is really down to the Mets and the Red Sox.

[JP3700]

 

Swisher was middle of the pack for 1B.

 

 

Swisher was actually above average for a first baseman offensively. He was also worth 3.8 WAR.

 

Bourne was near the bottom. He had SO 23%, had an ISO of .097 and an OPS of 676.

 

Those stats are about what his career averages are. You are paying for defense and speed with Bourn. He was still worth 2.4 WAR.

 

I think Cleveland’s improvement could be interpreted differently. Masterson went from an ERA of 4.93 in 2012 to 3.45 in 2013. Jimenez improved from an ERA of 5.40 to 3.30. They added Kazmir who pitched to a 4.04 ERA and was really good the 2^nd half. Kluber went from 5.14 to 3.85. McAlister improved from 4.24 to 3.75. I realize this is a bit farfetched but it’s the rough equivalent to getting rid of a rather poor staff and replacing it with 3 of Nolasco and 2 of Garza at his very best.

 

I would attribute their improvement to massive improvement in their two primary starters, and two young guys panning out nicely (McAlister / Kluber) as well as a FA pick-up frequently characterized as dumpster diving here. (Kazmir)

 

I believe it was the accumulation of many things that helped their turn around. Pitching was a big part of it, but so were Bourn and Swisher.

 

You also have to consider who do they have to replace that production. They lose 2 more games they are not in the playoffs. They lose 1, they would have played game 163. Pretty sure Swisher and Bourn helped them win at least two more games.

[Reider]

I have never understood why so many people are concerned about saving Pohlad's money. As if 3/$30m to drew would hamstring the franchise. For goodness sake, even with their signings, payroll has barely gone up, and with this new massive mlb revenue deal, the money is flowing in. They SHOULD be overpaying right now BECAUSE THEY CAN!

My point clearly went over yours and Mikes' heads. It's not about saving money or keeping the payroll as low as possible. It's about value, opportunity cost, and getting the most improvement for your dollar. For instance, at the start of the season, everyone was in agreement that the easiest way to improve the team was to sign FA SP's. That made complete sense, when doing a cost-benefit analysis. I placed signing starting pitchers at the top and signing Stephen Drew at (or near) the bottom of the priority list based on how much improvement the team will have compared with how much $ is spent. And based on how the Twins have been spending this off season, they are in complete agreement with my cost-benefit analysis and not yours.

[TheLeviathan]

I'm curious why you continued to assert that Worley and Diamond's poor performance in 2013 was injury related and then don't give Drew the same consideration. Especially when there is statistical evidence that supports it.

 

I never said it might not be the reason, but it's speculation. It could certainly turn out to be untrue - same for Worley and Diamond.

 

I've read nothing but good from managers and players in regards to Drew.

 

In, what exactly? You hear sterling comments about jerk players all the time because the vast majority of the time players, managers, and owners keep their negative comments behind closed doors. The rare exception like this is far more meaningful, as it is in any case in which someone is blunt and straightforward in an interview.

 

Like I've said, I'm not opposed to signing him. I'm ok with it. But there are clearly some issues with this guy. As there is with most any player really.

[AlwaysinModeration]

I'm curious why you continued to assert that Worley and Diamond's poor performance in 2013 was injury related and then don't give Drew the same consideration. Especially when there is statistical evidence that supports it.

 

 

 

Prior to that ankle injury, he had been on the DL one time. Here was his games played in the prior four full seasons: 150, 152, 135, 151. He was on pace for another 150+ games before he got hurt in 2011. So what more should he have done for his organization?

 

I've read nothing but good from managers and players in regards to Drew. I'd rather believe those comments than the one negative comment that I've read (other than fans) from an owner that also called out his 24 year old star player before shipping him out of town.

 

 

 

 

 

As you mentioned, our shortstop situation is terrible. Other than the Mets, the other teams mentioned are even further out of contention(Marlins, Astros) or have a viable shortstop(Giants, Blue Jays, Pirates).

 

The competition is really down to the Mets and the Red Sox.

 

Are the Twins a part of this competition?

[Willihammer]

Well, one that jumps out is the Mets. Also the Giants, Toronto, Houston, Miami, Pittsburgh all could benefit from him.

 

Tor picks 11th, SF picks 14th (they also have Crawford), and Houston has Villar. Pittsburgh is cheap, and Miami is cheaper.

 

There's no market. That's why nobody's interested in Drew.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I have to admit I didn't understand Escobar not getting a shot last season. I guess the question to me is whether or not Escobar can be a good ML SS. With Florimon, you get a good glove for cheap. I'd rather have Drew than Florimon, but I'm not sold on the price. I'm not going to get worked up about this either way, but why is it that I have this gut feeling that we are going to sign Drew only to watch Escobar outperform him...

[JP3700]

the odds of Drew contributing to a contender are zero for the 1st two years.

 

I'm not sure how you can assume it's zero, especially for two years. I don't remember one projection that Cleveland would make the playoffs last year.

 

Signing Drew should not be the final move as it leans towards contending within the first two years. There's still flexibility to improve the team after his signing. Drew would just be the biggest immediate upgrade for what's available. He is also going to be a good value considering what the market is.

 

Barring injury or a complete breakdown (which is a risk for any free agent), you could always recoup value through a trade, if the team continues to fail.

[Guest USAFChief]

As a mod, I just wanted to compliment everyone posting in this thread, pro and con, for making good points and staying away from negative emotions.

[jokin]

Given what Baltimore probably wants for one season of Hardy, I'd rather have Drew. If the Twins can't retain Hardy after 2014, they will have given up some kind of prospect for no good reason, as they're likely to miss the playoffs anyway. At least with Drew, you're only sacrificing a draft pick and you get him for at least two seasons, maybe three (but hopefully two).

 

Definitely wouldn't trade Hardy for a high prospect. But i would like to see them make a legitimate playoff run, should they crap out, they always would have the chance to recoup the prospect in a deadline trade or make a QO at season's end. The Orioles are looking for SP depth (a #4-5 and a #2 type), a LF, a DH and a closer. The Twins potentially line up here for a trade of major leaguers (Plouffe plus somebody below their 5 best pitching prospects...or Correia + lower prospect?)

[JP3700]

Are the Twins a part of this competition?

 

I'm not sure, but obviously I feel they should be . Comments and reports are leaning me to believe they are not.

 

I had little to no idea they were close on Nolasco and Hughes. Then BOOM, they were signed. So maybe the Twins could be the infamous "mystery team" that comes out of nowhere.