Article: The Case for Stephen Drew

[ashbury]

if he limits those "easy" mistakes he made in 2013, which I believe is a mental thing and can be corrected.

 

Which we've been saying for, what, three off-seasons now? That was the book on him when he was picked up off waivers. He has improved on that. Some.

[Otto von Ballpark]

In regards to contract, what do people think is realistic? MLBTR said this back in November:

 

the fourth year will be a sticking point for most teams, along with the draft pick, and a three-year deal in the $36-42MM range is possible. But I see Drew closer to the Michael Bourn range, so I'm predicting a four-year, $48MM deal.

 

3/33 looks like his floor, doesn't it?

[JP3700]

I agree but in signing these guys, I don't want someone who is going to HURT the team in 2015 and 2016.

 

Nolasco is older, got more years, and more money than Drew will. Career ERA+ of 94, coming off of his best year since 2008, where he was.. league average. Why is he less likely to hurt the team?

 

Here's a comparison of Drew, Garza and Nolasco. All three players entered the league in 2008.

 

[TABLE=class: grid, width: 500]

[/TD]

[TD]Career WAR

2013 WAR

(Likely) Contract

Drew (31)

16.1

3.1

3 years, $30M

Garza (30)

14.8

1.4

4 years, $60M

Nolasco (31)

10.8

1.8

4 years, $49M

[/TABLE]

 

The projection on Drew is likely close to the ceiling on the contract he'd get. The projection on Garza is likely the floor.

 

can only play against righties

 

Ellsbury got 150+ million and his OPS dropped by over 200 points against lefties. Choo got 130 million and his OPS dropped by almost 400 points against lefties. Left handed batters generally don't hit lefties well. As Brock pointed out, Drew is on the valuable side of the platoon.

 

Drew also still brings value on defense. He's not a one dimensional player. Here's an excerpt from an article written about Drew during the world series:

"Drew has overall been a good defensive shortstop this season and this series he's been exceptional, probably saving a run or two single-handedly. Take the leaping catch on a line drive pictured above from Game 5, a sick glove-scoop in Game 4 or any number of rangy plays -- whether charging weak grounders, going up the middle or into the hole -- he finishes with ease. He makes the difficult play look routine."

 

Move him down in the line up or give him a day off against the occasional left handed starter. He's still a valuable player.

[JP3700]

In regards to contract, what do people think is realistic? MLBTR said this back in November:

 

the fourth year will be a sticking point for most teams, along with the draft pick, and a three-year deal in the $36-42MM range is possible. But I see Drew closer to the Michael Bourn range, so I'm predicting a four-year, $48MM deal.

 

3/33 looks like his floor, doesn't it?

 

From recent reports I've read, three years seems to be his ceiling. That's why I think he would be a good sign. He'd be coming at a good value. What was the floor coming into the offseason looks to be his ceiling now.

 

If Peralta got 4/53, Drew at 3/33 looks to be a bargain.

[ashbury]

Nolasco is older, got more years, and more money than Drew will. Career ERA+ of 94, coming off of his best year since 2008, where he was.. league average. Why is he less likely to hurt the team?

 

Because it's not a good comparison. Starting pitchers usually as a group have a higher ERA than the bullpen corps. But you can't construct a better than average staff by only having relievers; someone has to pitch more innings than that. You pitch differently if you know you're expected to go 6+ innings. Achieving an OPS+ in the 90s won't get a starter into many All Star games, but it does provide value to a team.

[Guest USAFChief]

I agree but in signing these guys, I don't want someone who is going to HURT the team in 2015 and 2016. A SS on the wrong side of 30 who can't stay healthy and can only play against righties looks to be a liability by 2015 if not 2014.

In addition to the excellent rebuttal above, I'd add my opinion that Hughes has a much higher liklihood of being wasted money than Drew in any future year....and if we're going to platton all players that show platoon splits, we're going to need larger rosters.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

A high ceiling. My opinion is if Terry Ryan signes Drew for 3/33 then we'll know that Ryan was bidding against himself (again).

 

In review, and setting aside all the yeah but yeah buts, Drew's games started at SS last three years (compared to Peralta, who also is more versatile):

 

2011: 83 games (140 Peralta)

2012: 75 games (145)

2013: 122 games (103)

 

At 3/33 playing half seasons is I agree a cost/benefit not worth the money. I see the Mets/Pirates/Twins/Sox/ as potential landing pads but on a one year trial.

 

Also,

 

Twins starters at SS since we gave Hardy the boot after 2010:

 

2011: Nishioka 59, Plouffe 45, Casilla 36, Tolbert 22

2012: Dozier 81, Florimon 42, Carroll 36, Escobar 3

2013: Florimon 127, Escobar 21

 

More importantly, I believe stability at short will go a long way towards getting the team back on track in ways that are harder to quantify. I love the potential reliability and familiarity of Florimon over the "Door #3" quality of Drew. Florimon is not young but also not exactly over the hill, he might yet learn something about hitting and improve a little. Note that I said might . Punto was 28 when he came out of the blue to hit 290. So you never know. But great arguments on both sides for sure.

[JP3700]

Because it's not a good comparison. Starting pitchers usually as a group have a higher ERA than the bullpen corps. But you can't construct a better than average staff by only having relievers; someone has to pitch more innings than that. You pitch differently if you know you're expected to go 6+ innings. Achieving an OPS+ in the 90s won't get a starter into many All Star games, but it does provide value to a team.

 

Those are all good points but my response was to the thought that Drew would hurt the team. Considering past performance, age and contract figures, it's much more likely that Drew earns his contract than Nolasco does his.

 

ERA+ in the 90s have some value, but at the back end of a rotation on a winning team, and don't usually cost $12M a year.

[halfchest]

I feel like the only real argument I can understand is that he would cost a draft pick. Assuming we're right on that he would only require a 3 year contract in the 10-12 million per year area then he's not going to limit this team. Even with that contract I think we'd be around 75-80 million in 2015 with Correia and Willingham coming off the books. Doesn't limit us financially then either.

 

I'm not a big believer that 2nd round picks are more than a guessing game. You like to have those lottery tickets and of course there are some great players taken in the 2nd round but I think it's more luck than anything. Do you sell that lottery ticket for a guy like Drew? I think so. He and Dozier could bring a lot of stability to the keystone and Drew might bring a nice veteran presence to a very young group of position players.

 

Not worried about blocking Santana either and Polanco at best would be up in 2016 assuming he works out.

[johnnydakota]

Signing Drew and giving up the draft pick , would be comparible to re-signing Nishi...

Save the Money and Sign the Cuban kid Diaz.....

[JP3700]

In review, and setting aside all the yeah but yeah buts, Drew's games started at SS last three years (compared to Peralta, who also is more versatile):

 

2011: 83 games (140 Peralta)

2012: 75 games (145)

2013: 122 games (103)

 

 

I'm not sure it's fair to set aside the yeah buts, and then compare him to a player coming off of a PED suspension.

 

I'm also not sure it's fair to imply someone is injury prone from a couple of freak injuries.

 

Shouldn't Drew get credit for the 143, 147, 128, 147 prior to the ankle injury that cost him half of 2011 and 2012?

 

Injuries happen. Like bilateral leg weakness and foul tips to the head. Or in Drew's case, a slide into home plate and getting drilled in the head by a pitch.

 

Also,

 

Twins starters at SS since we gave Hardy the boot after 2010:

 

2011: Nishioka 59, Plouffe 45, Casilla 36, Tolbert 22

2012: Dozier 81, Florimon 42, Carroll 36, Escobar 3

2013: Florimon 127, Escobar 21

 

I'd say that this list is more reason for the Twins to sign Drew.

[JP3700]

Signing Drew and giving up the draft pick , would be comparible to re-signing Nishi...

Save the Money and Sign the Cuban kid Diaz.....

 

Pass on the proven MLB player because it's comparable to signing an unproven international player.....

 

So you can use that money to sign an unproven international player.

[twinsnorth49]

I agree but in signing these guys, I don't want someone who is going to HURT the team in 2015 and 2016. A SS on the wrong side of 30 who can't stay healthy and can only play against righties looks to be a liability by 2015 if not 2014.

 

Since when can Florimon hit lefties?

[johnnydakota]

Pass on the proven MLB player because it's comparable to signing an unproven international player.....

 

So you can use that money to sign an unproven international player.

 

1 Your giving up a top 45 draft pick in a pitcher heavy draft

2 Drew had an ok year in hitter friendly Fennway....

3 A Diaz has proven himself on the international stage

4 I would rather have a young kid growup with the team,

and be here for 5 or more years then to sign a declining veteran....

5 If we were a .250 hitter away from making a playoff run ,then maybe I think about wasting the money(30+ million)

but the Twins are hoping for 70-80 win season , so it makes no sense to sign Drew.....

[Mike Sixel]

How is it wasting money to be better, and why do you care if they "waste it" or pocket it?

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 Drew had an ok year in hitter friendly Fennway....

 

In fairness to Drew, he is not the type of hitter that thrives in Fenway. He has zero opposite field power.

[Thrylos]

More importantly, I believe stability at short will go a long way towards getting the team back on track in ways that are harder to quantify. I love the potential reliability and familiarity of Florimon over the "Door #3" quality of Drew. Florimon is not young but also not exactly over the hill, he might yet learn something about hitting and improve a little. Note that I said might . Punto was 28 when he came out of the blue to hit 290. So you never know. But great arguments on both sides for sure.

 

I agree that stability at short (and at second) helps the team defensively tremendously. But:

a. the Twins had an extremely stable IF last season. That did not take them many places.

b. Define "reliability" please. Florimon is a tad more reliable than Butera with the stick and he was 4th in errors committed in the majors (and second in the AL) at SS last season.

[Craig Arko]

Just to bust up the monotony I wonder what the reaction will be when Jason Bartlett is named the opening day SS?

 

Actually, I'd really like to see Dozier get another chance, but that seems unlikely at this point.

[halfchest]

Signing Drew and giving up the draft pick , would be comparible to re-signing Nishi...

Save the Money and Sign the Cuban kid Diaz.....

 

That makes no sense, how are those two things at all the same?

 

Drew is a proven player who was decent even in his worst years which were bad partially due to injury. He has a .764 career OPS and last year was .777? So yes he had a good year but it's pretty much in line with his career averages. Had a couple bad injury years, last year did much better and played much more. Nishi was an international player who didn't pan out and has no shot at a major league career at this point. So signing a guy who's had a solid major league career is equal to giving up a 2nd round pick and signing a failed prospect . . . I don't see the comparison.

 

If you don't like Drew that's fine and if you don't want to give up the draft pick? cool, you value draft picks more than I do I guess. To me Drew should be a solid contributor. If anything Signing Diaz is more comparable to the original signing of Nishi in that neither one of them has played major league ball before. That said, I dont' compare those two either.

 

Also, sure if we can get Diaz, great. I'd rather have the younger guy with upside too but I've heard no reports of us being linked to him. I think we could have Drew if we offered him a 3 year 33 million where as Diaz is gonna have his pick of where to play.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Shouldn't Drew get credit for the 143, 147, 128, 147 prior to the ankle injury that cost him half of 2011 and 2012?

 

Sure he gets credit for those full seasons. He signed a big 1-yr contract prior to last season. But going forward, can you honestly project Drew for 143, 147, 128 games in the next three years?

 

Also, I briefly looked up middle infield combos. Not necessarily to prove a specific point but to get a broad idea of whether or not the most successful teams in any given season, if they have middle infield stability day-in day-out.

 

Team leaders, Games started at SS/2B, per season:

 

[TABLE]

[TD=bgcolor: #ebebeb]

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #ebebeb]

Twins

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #ebebeb]

AL Champ

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #ebebeb]

2000

[/TD]

Guzman/Canizaro148/85

Jeter/Knoblauch148/82

[TD=bgcolor: #ebebeb]

2001

[/TD]

Guzman/Rivas115/148

Jeter/Soriano150/156

[TD=bgcolor: #ebebeb]

2002

[/TD]

Guzman/Rivas143/91

Eckstein/Kennedy146/123

[TD=bgcolor: #ebebeb]

2003

[/TD]

Guzman/Rivas137/131

Jeter/Soriano118/154

[TD=bgcolor: #ebebeb]

2004

[/TD]

Guzman/Rivas143/95

Bellhorn/O.Cabrera118/57

[TD=bgcolor: #ebebeb]

2005

[/TD]

Castro/Punto66/63

Uribe/Iguchi143/129

[TD=bgcolor: #ebebeb]

2006

[/TD]

Bartlett/Castillo99/142

Guillen/Polanco144/107

[TD=bgcolor: #ebebeb]

2007

[/TD]

Bartlett/Castillo135/85

Lugo/Pedroia139/132

[TD=bgcolor: #ebebeb]

2008

[/TD]

Punto/Casilla60/94

Bartlett/Iwamura122/151

[TD=bgcolor: #ebebeb]

2009

[/TD]

O.Cabrera/Casilla57/64

Jeter/Cano147/158

[TD=bgcolor: #ebebeb]

2010

[/TD]

Hardy/Hudson95/123

Andrus/Kinsler144/102

[TD=bgcolor: #ebebeb]

2011

[/TD]

Nishioka/Casilla59/53

Andrus/Kinsler142/144

[TD=bgcolor: #ebebeb]

2012

[/TD]

Dozier/Casilla81/83

Peralta/Infante145/59

[TD=bgcolor: #ebebeb]

2013

[/TD]

Florimon/Dozier127/141

Drew/Pedroia122/159

[/TABLE]

 

With Drew, a lot of us get the sense that he's an injury waiting to happen and then we go back on the short stop merry-go-round and back to Florimon anyway.

[oldguy10]

I vacillate a bit on Drew. I'm not sold on him coming out of Fenway (I have an irrational fear of anyone who hits in that park) but his spray chart indicates that he didn't make much use of the Monster so that's probably a non-issue.

 

On the other hand, Pedro Florimon is not a Major League hitter. The Twins have zero above average shortstop prospects in the high minors. If there is one position they can fill via free agency and not have to worry about getting in the way of any youngsters, it's short.

 

Brock, I think you are the only one that says the Twins have zero shortstop prospects in the high minors and you are probably correct but some of the guys in the lower minors may turn out to be half way decent - Santana, Polanco, Goodrum just to name three, give them a chance without dismissing them just yet.

[halfchest]

1 Your giving up a top 45 draft pick in a pitcher heavy draft

2 Drew had an ok year in hitter friendly Fennway....

3 A Diaz has proven himself on the international stage

4 I would rather have a young kid growup with the team,

and be here for 5 or more years then to sign a declining veteran....

5 If we were a .250 hitter away from making a playoff run ,then maybe I think about wasting the money(30+ million)

but the Twins are hoping for 70-80 win season , so it makes no sense to sign Drew.....

 

1. I don't think that's all that valuable, is it nice? yes, but we could use talent on the MLB roster that we dont' have. I probably value draft picks less than you do.

2. Drew hit well for SS and the numbers were right in with his career averages even if you include his awful 2011 and 2012.

3. Diaz would be awesome, I don't see him coming here though, but heck I hope they try.

4. Again, I agree, just don't know if he'll come here

5. Drew would be here for three years, I sure as hell hope the Twins are planning to be better than a 75-80 win team sometime in the next three years. He's older yes, but it's not lie he's 35 ready to break down completely. He's young enough to have 3-5 more solid years and could very well be a nice piece, plus who cares, not our money and shouldn't affect future spending that much. Again that's just an opinion. I think Drew makes a lot of sense due to who else are we gonna spend the money on and he would upgrade a significant part of our lineup.

[Thrylos]

Brock, I think you are the only one that says the Twins have zero shortstop prospects in the high minors and you are probably correct but some of the guys in the lower minors may turn out to be half way decent - Santana, Polanco, Goodrum just to name three, give them a chance without dismissing them just yet.

 

Santana is in the high minors (AAA) and on the 40-man roster, but he is not much of a prospect. I think Escobar is next in line for the SS position.

[halfchest]

Brock, I think you are the only one that says the Twins have zero shortstop prospects in the high minors and you are probably correct but some of the guys in the lower minors may turn out to be half way decent - Santana, Polanco, Goodrum just to name three, give them a chance without dismissing them just yet.

 

Santana is the only one close to the majors and his career minor league numbers are worse than Drews career major league numbers. He might pan out but I wouldn't hold my breath. Polanco and Goodrum have a better shot IMO but they're both 2-3 years away at best making Drew a perfect bridge to them if they do.

[Guest USAFChief]

Santana is the only one close to the majors and his career minor league numbers are worse than Drews career major league numbers. He might pan out but I wouldn't hold my breath. Polanco and Goodrum have a better shot IMO but they're both 2-3 years away at best making Drew a perfect bridge to them if they do.

To pile on: I've said this elsewhere but I think it bears repeating...holding open spots on your major league roster for players in the low minors is a terrible way to run an organization. Polanco and Goodrum have no place in this discussion, IMO.

[twinsnorth49]

To pile on: I've said this elsewhere but I think it bears repeating...holding open spots on your major league roster for players in the low minors is a terrible way to run an organization. Polanco and Goodrum have no place in this discussion, IMO.

 

Concur, and this is part of the overall argument to sign Drew, he serves as a good bridge to when or if Polanco or Goodrum do become part of the discussion.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Brock, I think you are the only one that says the Twins have zero shortstop prospects in the high minors and you are probably correct but some of the guys in the lower minors may turn out to be half way decent - Santana, Polanco, Goodrum just to name three, give them a chance without dismissing them just yet.

 

I'm not dismissing them at all. Well, maybe Santana. He just hasn't shown much with the stick... Or anything with the stick, when you get right down to it.

 

Polanco and Goodrum haven't played above Cedar Rapids. They're non-issues at this point. They may turn into fantastic prospects. They may bust. Neither will hit the majors before 2016 at the earliest.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

b. Define "reliability" please. Florimon is a tad more reliable than Butera with the stick and he was 4th in errors committed in the majors (and second in the AL) at SS last season.

 

Fair enough. I'm defining reliability here as "this is our shortstop, day in, day out, for the foreseeable future." No platoons, no mid-season tryouts for other guys.

 

Guzman and Bartlett come to mind. As long as Florimon remains near the top of the league in the field (by whatever measure; last years early errors notwithstanding) then I'd like to see the organization show Florimon a vote of confidence and name him the every day shortstop for 2014. I wouldn't consider that a scholarship in this case.

 

A lot of us see Drew's age and recent injury history as a big red flag when discussion long term contracts. Not saying Florimon can't get hurt. Drew is much more likely to miss time to injury I'd think, then we're back to Florimon anyway.

 

Since I've been emphasizing middle infield stability, I decided to look up some recent SS/2B combos. I made this chart for JP3700 not to prove a specific point but just to get an idea of the Twins recent middle infield situation. I think a stable middle infield is valuable in intangible ways. Dozier and Florimon are proving to be above average and I'd really like to see the Twins continue to address other needs first.

 

Team leaders, Games started, SS/2B, by year:

[TABLE]

[TD=bgcolor: #ebebeb]

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #ebebeb]

Twins

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #ebebeb]

AL Champ

[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #ebebeb]

2000

[/TD]

Guzman/Canizaro148/85

Jeter/Knoblauch148/82

[TD=bgcolor: #ebebeb]

2001

[/TD]

Guzman/Rivas115/148

Jeter/Soriano150/156

[TD=bgcolor: #ebebeb]

2002

[/TD]

Guzman/Rivas143/91

Eckstein/Kennedy146/123

[TD=bgcolor: #ebebeb]

2003

[/TD]

Guzman/Rivas137/131

Jeter/Soriano118/154

[TD=bgcolor: #ebebeb]

2004

[/TD]

Guzman/Rivas143/95

Bellhorn/O.Cabrera118/57

[TD=bgcolor: #ebebeb]

2005

[/TD]

Castro/Punto66/63

Uribe/Iguchi143/129

[TD=bgcolor: #ebebeb]

2006

[/TD]

Bartlett/Castillo99/142

Guillen/Polanco144/107

[TD=bgcolor: #ebebeb]

2007

[/TD]

Bartlett/Castillo135/85

Lugo/Pedroia139/132

[TD=bgcolor: #ebebeb]

2008

[/TD]

Punto/Casilla60/94

Bartlett/Iwamura122/151

[TD=bgcolor: #ebebeb]

2009

[/TD]

O.Cabrera/Casilla57/64

Jeter/Cano147/158

[TD=bgcolor: #ebebeb]

2010

[/TD]

Hardy/Hudson95/123

Andrus/Kinsler144/102

[TD=bgcolor: #ebebeb]

2011

[/TD]

Nishioka/Casilla59/53

Andrus/Kinsler142/144

[TD=bgcolor: #ebebeb]

2012

[/TD]

Dozier/Casilla81/83

Peralta/Infante145/59

[TD=bgcolor: #ebebeb]

2013

[/TD]

Florimon/Dozier127/141

Drew/Pedroia122/159

[/TABLE]

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Concur, and this is part of the overall argument to sign Drew, he serves as a good bridge to when or if Polanco or Goodrum do become part of the discussion.

 

But all things considered, just as good a bridge as Florimon would.

 

I think that is the crux of our argument. I think some of us have seen too many Tolberts and Nishiokas pass through in recent memory and are ready for a decent fielding, stable middle infield, which we might very well have in Florimon and Dozier.

 

Not that I'm hard opposed to Drew, but I'd rather see the Twins slot Florimon ninth and worry about getting Arcia and Hicks straightened out, than to suddenly just turn to free agency for every need.

[Reider]

If we're concerned with cost benefit analysis, Mauer costs about 46 times what it would take to just let Parmelee play first.

 

However, I don't think "cost benefit" is the best method to use when building a baseball team. I prefer the "better baseball player" method.

Everyone does a cost benefit analysis throughout their daily lives, often without even realizing it. Cost benefit analysis' and opportunity costs are a part of life. Especially professional baseball life.

 

In terms of "best baseball player" method. I like that method too. However, when it comes to Drew and Florimon, Drew is not better at everything than Florimon. Florimon is better defensively and is arguably more durable. Drew gets on base more than Florimon and he has consistently done that throughout his career. I see the value in signing Drew for that reason. However, he has trouble hitting lefties. Do you think Gardy would platoon Drew with Escobar or someone else and make sure it's done consistently/properly?

 

I know there are a lot of Twins fans that feel signing Drew is a no brainer, but if Drew was such a great deal, he would have been signed by a team by now. Lets put it this way, I'm not against signing Drew, but the lower his price tag is, the more I like the signing. I'm just having a hard time justifying spending over $10million more on Drew than Florimon when Florimon has already proven he's one of the best defenders in the league and hasn't even been given a chance to improve his hitting #'s from last year. Guys like Parmelee and Plouffe have gotten to come back "the next year" and have failed, yet they are still around. Florimon has earned a chance to improve his numbers in 2014. His defense is so good that I think it's worth giving him more time to work on his hitting.

 

Tell me, other than getting on base, what does Drew do bring to the table that makes him a must have @ 20-26X the price of Florimon + a 2nd round draft pick? He only hit 13HR's last year, so he doesn't bring much power to the table. His career high is 67RBI's so he's not driving in 100+ runs like some players. Speed? Nope, he only had 6 stolen bases to Florimon's 15. Drew also had a career high # of strike outs @ 124. Drew's performance in the playoffs has declined since 2007.

 

I see the value in Drew's OBP, but that's about where it ends. Florimon is younger, faster, more durable, better defensively, and MUCH cheaper. Not to mention Florimon has only played one full season in the MLB and hasn't even been given a chance to improve his hitting.