Larry Corrigan Returns to the Twins

[gunnarthor]

Good results would be a check mark in favor of his "Old School/Scouting" approach, but it does not prove that he has embraced statistical analysis.

 

Well, Correia pitched how Ryan thought he would and he specifically mentioned Goin when talking about signing Correia, so I do think it shows the Twins have some analysis based on stats. Probably not the same ones that fangraphs use. (But clearly they are also scout heavy).

 

Remember, Joe Posnanski wrote that the A's internal WAR calculator had Cabrera ahead of Trout last year. ML teams have more info than we (fans) give them credit for.

[IdahoPilgrim]

But this is not the debate, it is not about the results of these pitchers, it is about whether Ryan was targeting pitchers that statistical analysis favors. He did not appear to. Ryan's method may or may not have gotten good results from his free agents, but that is not what was at question.

 

Good results would be a check mark in favor of his "Old School/Scouting" approach, but it does not prove that he has embraced statistical analysis.

 

If the results are good, does it really matter what approach he takes?

 

And on the topic at hand, has it been statistically proven that the statistical analysis method is substantially better? Aside from cherry-picked anecdotal evidence (which can always be found for all sides of any issues) I would like to see some sort of statistical analysis about the relationship of statistical analysis to baseball success. I'm not sure how you would measure that - size of statistical analysis budget, number of analysts, a quantitative score based on percentage of weight statistical analysis carries when making personnel moves, number of times mentioned (or not mentioned) in a GM interview - but take that quantitative measure of adoption of statistical analysis and then correlate that with wins per season and playoff series wins and see what it looks like. Would the use of statistics actually be statistically significant?

[gunnarthor]

For me, it's that TR has thus far refused to bid on good talent, anytime, anywhere. The only acquisitions he ever makes are either explicitly capped in spending, or involve modest interest at best (Correia, Pelfrey, etc.).

.

 

I'm not going to disagree with you but I'm also not sure you're right. In fairness to Ryan, when he was GM through 07, he did lock up a lot of talent on extensions, which was significant, but he didn't really have the means to bid on top talent.

 

After he left, we did see the Twins have a top 10 payroll for one year, with some real smart FA pickups (Pavano, Thome, Hudson) that helped them to a great season.

 

When Ryan came back, the team wasn't in a position where free agency was going to help, esp with a bunch of young guys needing to come up. The Willingham, Doumit, Correia, Burton finds were ok for a rebuilding team.

 

I'm still willing to give Ryan the benefit of the doubt and think he can spend more but he won't use FA as a crutch, he'll use it to help polish a nearly finished project like they did in 2010. And these last two years, there really wasn't a high end talent that anyone could realistically think the Twins could have gotten. They weren't going to win a bidding match against the Dodgers. Sanchez wasn't going to come here when Detroit was backing up the truck for him. The Twins weren't going to win a bidding on Hamilton or Pujols.

[Mike Sixel]

McPhail never had trouble signing guys to huge deals, some of the biggest in the majors at the tnme, and he operated under the same constraints.

 

And, we totally disagree that FA "would not help" the last three years. 100% disagree.

 

Also, judging decisions after the fact is not really a good way to judge decisions. If you drive drunk, and live, was it a good idea to drive drunk? Should you do it again?

 

I tire of this "debate". No one on the stats side is saying it is the only way. that's a straw man. No one on the FA side is saying it is the one true way, and they should not still draft and develop players. It is a straw man. No one is saying they don't use stats at all. That is a straw man. I hope I'm strong enough to just stop answering these kinds of posts someday.

 

What we are asking for, is to use every available means to get better.

[gunnarthor]

McPhail never had trouble signing guys to huge deals, some of the biggest in the majors at the tnme, and he operated under the same constraints.

 

And, we totally disagree that FA "would not help" the last three years. 100% disagree.

 

Also, judging decisions after the fact is not really a good way to judge decisions. If you drive drunk, and live, was it a good idea to drive drunk? Should you do it again?

 

I tire of this "debate". No one on the stats side is saying it is the only way. that's a straw man. No one on the FA side is saying it is the one true way, and they should not still draft and develop players. It is a straw man. No one is saying they don't use stats at all. That is a straw man. I hope I'm strong enough to just stop answering these kinds of posts someday.

 

What we are asking for, is to use every available means to get better.

 

McPhail didn't have the same economic problems that Ryan faced. It's an apples/oranges comparison.

 

Yep, we disagree on FA. But please tell me what path the Twins should've taken. What FA should they have signed?

 

I'm comfortable with Ryan and the FO getting the team right. They have the history and they've made a number of moves that suggests that the game hasn't passed them by. I'm not going to get upset if they don't seem to be going things the "fangraphs" way or if they keep thins close to the vest.

[Jim Crikket]

Because the Angels organization is one the Twins should be stealing people from...

 

Bringing the topic back around to Corrigan's hiring, I just thought I'd respond to this comment.

 

I don't think the problem with the Angels' organization has necessarily been their scouting. They gave away so many top draft picks chasing protected FAs the last couple years that it would be pretty amazing scouting to pick up anyone with significant promise. That FO has had to be a pretty frustrating place to work for good scouts lately. Now, you add in a lack of any job security because the GM himself could be shoved to the curb any time and you take any road out of town that you can find.

 

Unless Corrigan is the guy who told the LAAA brass to go get Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols without regard to costs in $ and draft picks, I'm not going to worry too much about the fact that he spent the last 2 years with the Angels.

 

EDIT: By the way, after finishing at or near the bottom of both rookie leagues a couple of years ago, both of the Angels' rookie league teams were above .500 in 2013. I have no idea if Corrigan influenced that or not, but having been a follower of the Angels' former MWL affiliate, I can tell you that's a significant improvement over the kind of talent they'd been sending up through the ranks previously.

[old nurse]

How would a front office know something like FIP isn't useful to them if they don't know what it is?

 

My thinking is that they are more concerned with how they get to the endpoint of a season stat than a season stat for a player. FIP may tell you that they pitched better or worse than their ERA says they did. FIP may tell you if you have a good pitcher. Paying Might even be useful in saying if they are a good pitcher or not. Paying closer attention to what happens when they throw the ball would be a better indicator. Does what they throw produce a GB % that can be sustained? Does what they throw lead to a lot of right field line drives which could lead to more HR at Target Field. That sort of situation and numerical ssesments are a lot more important than FIP.

[nicksaviking]

Well, Correia pitched how Ryan thought he would and he specifically mentioned Goin when talking about signing Correia, so I do think it shows the Twins have some analysis based on stats. Probably not the same ones that fangraphs use. (But clearly they are also scout heavy).

 

You'll have to find that one because I don't remember any reference to Goin when it came to signing Correia, quite the opposite in fact. I do remeber Ryan saying his SCOUTS came back and said he was better then what his numbers:

 

Mackey: Low-risk or not, Twins are taking philosophical gambles | 1500 ESPN Twin Cities ? Minnesota Sports News & Opinion (Twins, Vikings, Wolves, Wild, Gophers) | Sportswire: Minnesota Twins

[nicksaviking]

If the results are good, does it really matter what approach he takes?

 

Perhaps not, but then the people defending Ryan need to stop saying that BECAUSE he didn't make a bad free agent signing, he MUST have been using statistical analysis.

[The Wise One]

Perhaps not, but then the people defending Ryan need to stop saying that BECAUSE he didn't make a bad free agent signing, he MUST have been using statistical analysis.

 

There is plenty of evidence they have a statistical analysis department. Is it so hard to believe they could be right?

[The Wise One]

You'll have to find that one because I don't remember any reference to Goin when it came to signing Correia, quite the opposite in fact. I do remeber Ryan saying his SCOUTS came back and said he was better then what his numbers:

 

Mackey: Low-risk or not, Twins are taking philosophical gambles | 1500 ESPN Twin Cities ? Minnesota Sports News & Opinion (Twins, Vikings, Wolves, Wild, Gophers) | Sportswire: Minnesota Twins

 

Ryan also said that his scouts know statistics.

[drivlikejehu]

Ryan also said that his scouts know statistics.

 

There is no evidence that his scouts understand statistics beyond the old-time basics. Over and over again reflexive Twins/TR defenders demand 'proof' of this or that observation regarding how old school the Twins are (even though this is readily apparent and openly acknowledged by the organization).

 

But when TR says "my scouts know stats" or that there are these various unnamed front office people (in addition to Goin), the requirement for evidence goes out the window. We are supposed to take the Twins' word that, along the path to 'getting back to how [they] used to do it', they've also kept up with developments in the game.

 

To expand on 'mike wants wins' great post: even focusing on particular stats like FIP is a straw man. The forward-thinking organizations develop their own tools and processes. The issue isn't numbers at all, but rather the fundamental approach to management. Teams like Boston, St. Louis, etc., are run like a business - always looking for an edge, incorporating data into their decision making, and so forth.

 

The Twins approach is obviously very different - something that is rationally undeniable as a result of Ryan's own comments (and others with the organization). They stick to set 'philosophies' and say so proudly. These philosophies are meaningless platitudes about 'playing the right way' and having starters that 'pitch deep into games' (as if anyone would want otherwise), among the slew that are regularly thrown out by the org.

 

The Twins are a 20th century entity competing in the 21st century. It's a losing proposition.

[TheLeviathan]

What moves has Ryan done that you think show he doesn't know what he's doing? What moves should he have done? Shouldn't that be the barometer instead of him using language you like?

 

When did I ever say I don't think he knows what he's doing? I think he's let himself get behind the times and overconfident in his own way. Even brilliant sports minds have to be willing to change with time. He hasn't.

 

The biggest measure of what he has or has not done well is that he was handed a godawful team and has done virtually nothing to improve it in any meaningful way. (Other than the draft, but everyone gets to draft and we won't know the ultimate value of those moves for some time) He's had an incredibly low bar to improve the team and still failed for two offseasons.

 

And let's put something to bed that is a total double standard on this forum: The call for specifics is silly. If I accuse the team of failing to be aggressive in negotiations, I hear "well yeah, but you don't know what went on in that room". The same works in reverse. I don't know how many offers were on the table that he passed on that would've helped, but he didn't pull the trigger. Or agents or GMs that approached him with deals I'd have loved, but he hated.

 

So as specific as you're going to get from me is that he's had a very low bar to jump and he's failed miserably at it by pretty much every objective and subjective measure you can find.

[The Wise One]

There is no evidence that his scouts understand statistics beyond the old-time basics. Over and over again reflexive Twins/TR defenders demand 'proof' of this or that observation regarding how old school the Twins are (even though this is readily apparent and openly acknowledged by the organization).

 

But when TR says "my scouts know stats" or that there are these various unnamed front office people (in addition to Goin), the requirement for evidence goes out the window. We are supposed to take the Twins' word that, along the path to 'getting back to how [they] used to do it', they've also kept up with developments in the game.

 

To expand on 'mike wants wins' great post: even focusing on particular stats like FIP is a straw man. The forward-thinking organizations develop their own tools and processes. The issue isn't numbers at all, but rather the fundamental approach to management. Teams like Boston, St. Louis, etc., are run like a business - always looking for an edge, incorporating data into their decision making, and so forth.

 

The Twins approach is obviously very different - something that is rationally undeniable as a result of Ryan's own comments (and others with the organization). They stick to set 'philosophies' and say so proudly. These philosophies are meaningless platitudes about 'playing the right way' and having starters that 'pitch deep into games' (as if anyone would want otherwise), among the slew that are regularly thrown out by the org.

 

The Twins are a 20th century entity competing in the 21st century. It's a losing proposition.

 

Complaining of a strawman argument with conjecture about how you think various front offices are run. Every organization has philosophies and ways they think the game should be played. They try to get players to fit that mold. Yes Ryan talks about things in global terms that you call meaningless platitudes. He doesn't say squat about how he got to that point of thinking. The Twins do not talk about how they make decisions. That leaves people to decide what they want to think without a basis. Ryan signed Willingham. Parker once wrote an article on how Willingham was built for Target Field just after he was signed. You can think the Twins were dumb and lucky with Willingham in 2012 or you can think they looked at his game and saw a fit for the home field. People are going to believe what they want.

[Joe A. Preusser]

There is no evidence that his scouts understand statistics beyond the old-time basics. Over and over again reflexive Twins/TR defenders demand 'proof' of this or that observation regarding how old school the Twins are (even though this is readily apparent and openly acknowledged by the organization).

 

But when TR says "my scouts know stats" or that there are these various unnamed front office people (in addition to Goin), the requirement for evidence goes out the window. We are supposed to take the Twins' word that, along the path to 'getting back to how [they] used to do it', they've also kept up with developments in the game.

 

To expand on 'mike wants wins' great post: even focusing on particular stats like FIP is a straw man. The forward-thinking organizations develop their own tools and processes. The issue isn't numbers at all, but rather the fundamental approach to management. Teams like Boston, St. Louis, etc., are run like a business - always looking for an edge, incorporating data into their decision making, and so forth.

 

The Twins approach is obviously very different - something that is rationally undeniable as a result of Ryan's own comments (and others with the organization). They stick to set 'philosophies' and say so proudly. These philosophies are meaningless platitudes about 'playing the right way' and having starters that 'pitch deep into games' (as if anyone would want otherwise), among the slew that are regularly thrown out by the org.

 

The Twins are a 20th century entity competing in the 21st century. It's a losing proposition.

 

 

No business in the world publishes it's innermost, "nuts and bolts" research and methodology for the public and other businesses to pick apart and steal. Walmart's slogan and mission statement is "We save you money so you can live better." Do you think the leaders of a world-class, multi-billion dollar company truly don't have thousands of hours in cutting edge business research on the books to help them run it? Of course they do. Then why do we only get a simple platitude? Because that's for the public to see.

Do you honestly expect to see TR give a press conference and break down the methodology, planning, and strategy he used for a specific transaction? Why, so the guy he fleeced out of a prospect for Drew Butera can look back and see exactly how and why he was fleeced and not repeat he mistake? Meaningless platitudes are all you are SUPPOSED to get.

[drivlikejehu]

No business in the world publishes it's innermost, "nuts and bolts" research and methodology for the public and other businesses to pick apart and steal. Walmart's slogan and mission statement is "We save you money so you can live better." Do you think the leaders of a world-class, multi-billion dollar company truly don't have thousands of hours in cutting edge business research on the books to help them run it? Of course they do. Then why do we only get a simple platitude? Because that's for the public to see.

Do you honestly expect to see TR give a press conference and break down the methodology, planning, and strategy he used for a specific transaction? Why, so the guy he fleeced out of a prospect for Drew Butera can look back and see exactly how and why he was fleeced and not repeat he mistake? Meaningless platitudes are all you are SUPPOSED to get.

 

Except Ryan's actions indicate that he does believe them, and that his comments are not just a deflection from discussing sensitive analytic processes.

 

Even if they were, though, that leaves a question mark for the Twins' actual strategy, and a pile of losses as the result. The team has underachieved by Ryan's own admission. That compares poorly to the rigorous approach and on-field successes of Beane, Mozeliak, Friedman, Daniels, etc.

[Ultima Ratio]

If the results are good, does it really matter what approach he takes?

 

 

Yes.

 

The man who knows that gravity is the cause of objects falling to earth surely has better explanatory and predictive power than the man who believes that objects fall to earth because those objects have more of the earth element in them than other elements like fire and wind.

[clutterheart]

No business in the world publishes it's innermost, "nuts and bolts" research and methodology for the public and other businesses to pick apart and steal. Walmart's slogan and mission statement is "We save you money so you can live better." Do you think the leaders of a world-class, multi-billion dollar company truly don't have thousands of hours in cutting edge business research on the books to help them run it? Of course they do. Then why do we only get a simple platitude? Because that's for the public to see.

 

I think you will run into trouble when you try to extrapolate business lessons into sports. Its a unique industry whose product isn't wins, players, or even the brand. The only product is the location of the business. If a sport team moves, the customerbase doesn't follow the brand or players, their customers gather in public and burn their jerseys. So comparing how Walmart runs their company to the Twins probably isn't a good comparision.

A better comparison is taking what we know about the Rays, A's, Cardinals, Yankees, Boston & others and using that metric to judge the Twins, their methodology and their openness.

[Thrylos]

Interesting.

 

And very interesting comments. Gotta love the reactionary reaction to the Twins taking 2 steps back:

 

a. the Twins can do no wrong no matter what; need better food and more C&W acts at Target Field. And baseball in Minny is good.

b. bring back the old school when Ryan was Merlin, that will solve the problem (and Smith sucked even though the Twins had better record with him as a GM than with Ryan, because he does not get the spinning of the ball)

c. Scouts rock. Even though the Twins' MLB advance scouts kinda suck (see: results)

d. 2011 was all Smith's fault. 2012 was Jerry's and Stelly's. 2013: not enough old scouts. Go get them. Now. Lazarus too. And Molitor. That will fix it

e. FIP? what FIP? F IP.

f. I got "access" now. I shalt not say anything bad about the Twins because my perceived access might be revoked.

[Major League Ready]

No business in the world publishes it's innermost, "nuts and bolts" research and methodology for the public and other businesses to pick apart and steal. Walmart's slogan and mission statement is "We save you money so you can live better." Do you think the leaders of a world-class, multi-billion dollar company truly don't have thousands of hours in cutting edge business research on the books to help them run it? Of course they do. Then why do we only get a simple platitude? Because that's for the public to see.

Do you honestly expect to see TR give a press conference and break down the methodology, planning, and strategy he used for a specific transaction? Why, so the guy he fleeced out of a prospect for Drew Butera can look back and see exactly how and why he was fleeced and not repeat he mistake? Meaningless platitudes are all you are SUPPOSED to get.

 

When the organizations you reference want an assessment or second opinion on their strategies and methodologies, they hire an outside consultant. Many times, the largest most successful companies are as likely as a struggling firm to engage an outside firm. In that capacity, I have interviewed and/or interacted with hundreds or even thousands of employees over the years. It is very common for them to make assumptions based on hear say and a myriad of other unreliable and/or incomplete information. Of course, they also don't know how the management team is fitting together all of the strategies.

 

Based on the information available, my gut tells me some of the concerns voiced here might be legit. My experience tells me that we don't have nearly enough information to conclude anything with any certainty.

 

What I really want to know is what has changed in the drafting and development process in the past few years. I think we can all agree that this is the most important component in putting a winning team on the field. They have completely turned around the minor leauge system. What did they change? Is it sustainable? We don't know and probably won't anytime soon. Should we be praising or condeming the direction. I am not sure. Those who are absolutely certain must have got their MBA at a much better school.

[gunnarthor]

When did I ever say I don't think he knows what he's doing? I think he's let himself get behind the times and overconfident in his own way. Even brilliant sports minds have to be willing to change with time. He hasn't.

 

The biggest measure of what he has or has not done well is that he was handed a godawful team and has done virtually nothing to improve it in any meaningful way. (Other than the draft, but everyone gets to draft and we won't know the ultimate value of those moves for some time) He's had an incredibly low bar to improve the team and still failed for two offseasons.

 

And let's put something to bed that is a total double standard on this forum: The call for specifics is silly. If I accuse the team of failing to be aggressive in negotiations, I hear "well yeah, but you don't know what went on in that room". The same works in reverse. I don't know how many offers were on the table that he passed on that would've helped, but he didn't pull the trigger. Or agents or GMs that approached him with deals I'd have loved, but he hated.

 

So as specific as you're going to get from me is that he's had a very low bar to jump and he's failed miserably at it by pretty much every objective and subjective measure you can find.

 

Well, I guess it's a general impasse. You can't finger things that should've been done other than "it's a low bar." Even ignoring the draft (since all teams get one, I guess?) I think the trades, waiver claims, promotions, and rule v picks show that he hasn't fallen behind the times.

 

I think it's ridiculous for people to clamor for improvement without specifics. What did you want? 91 losses? Would that clear your bar? Sign some vets and lose 86 games and draft 10th? It makes no sense to say suggest, as you are seem to be doing, that improvement is only shown by the ML teams record. The Twins are rebuilding. They need to get the young guys playing time. Ryan's been the GM for two years. Cubs and Astros have been rebuilding longer and losing more. Are their GMs failing?

[Jack Goin]

I think it's funny people know what stats we use or that we don't have any predictive stats when we don't talk about it. How do you know?

[TheLeviathan]

Well, I guess it's a general impasse. You can't finger things that should've been done other than "it's a low bar." Even ignoring the draft (since all teams get one, I guess?) I think the trades, waiver claims, promotions, and rule v picks show that he hasn't fallen behind the times.

 

How about...field a pitching staff that isn't historically awful? If he was as much on the ball as you seem to think, he'd have done more to improve an awful team. His poor drafts are largely responsible for this lack of talent. He's added very few long-term assets to the club in two years (other than through the draft), all short-term filler with one or two exceptions.

 

I can't give credit for good drafting until the results hit the field. Prospects are just that, prospects. All the farm top rankings in the world don't win baseball games and are no assurance of wins in the future. It's a complete farce to sight that as a positive at this point.

 

As for "specifics" they are still hypotheticals. We could've signed McCarthy and he would've been great for us. Or Joe Saunders. Or there could've been a better offer for Revere. I fail to see how that is a productive exercise. It boils down to having a low bar to jump and having utterly failed to do so.

 

Would that clear your bar?

 

Houston's GM has managed to turn their farm around and totally restructure the organization. Epstein did the same in Chicago. If Ryan came in, changed the culture, changed the organization in significant ways - he'd have a free pass from me. Instead, he's come in content to keep the engine that has become a total failure chugging away.

[nicksaviking]

There is plenty of evidence they have a statistical analysis department. Is it so hard to believe they could be right?

 

Your reply had nothing to do with my post, no one's debating they have at least a one person stats department.

 

I think everyone can agree they have Jack Goin and at least one person who may or may not have been an intern in their employ. That does not prove that they used them to positively evaluate Kevin Correia. The previous poster tried to imply that Jack Goin recommend him even though Ryan's own words say it was the scouts who recommended Correia despite his numbers.

[Willihammer]

I think it's funny people know what stats we use or that we don't have any predictive stats when we don't talk about it. How do you know?

 

Could you elaborate? If you're not using FIP or SIERA or some three true outcome based stat, then what have you found to be better predictors?

[nicksaviking]

I think it's funny people know what stats we use or that we don't have any predictive stats when we don't talk about it. How do you know?

 

I don't think (m)any folks here think they know what stats the front office uses. Simply put, due to past acquisitions and a reluctance to play a more modern version of baseball on the field and off, some of us don't think Terry Ryan puts enough reliance on the many statistics available. At least on the free agent side, some of us would prefer a stronger use of statistics than scouting.

[glunn]

I think it's funny people know what stats we use or that we don't have any predictive stats when we don't talk about it. How do you know?

 

Attention fellow TD members. We have verified that this post is from the actual Jack Goin, not an impostor. Please join me in welcoming Jack to TD.

 

I predict that if we respectfully invite Jack to have a friendly dialog, we may be rewarded with information that quenches our thirst. Obviously, Jack cannot give us any trade secrets, but maybe he could provide some tidbits that allay the concerns of those of us who feel that stats are not being used in an optimal manner.

[PseudoSABR]

I think it's funny people know what stats we use or that we don't have any predictive stats when we don't talk about it. How do you know?

Hi, Jack, welcome!

 

I imagine what statistics/analytics (and the given weight to such metrics) the team uses is a secret formula of the trade, so, I hope, no one here expects some verification on what you use and how much you use it. But rather, so many of us worry that the Twins are intransigent against innovative analytical approaches. What can you say that would put to bed such worries without compromising your competitive advantage? Again, thanks for checking in.

[glunn]

Yeah, great idea but I'm going say the respectfully part might be hard for some.

 

This is an opportunity for us to possibly obtain insight from someone who knows a lot of things that some of us endlessly speculate about. We moderators are going to be watching this thread more than the average thread and people who cannot follow the rules will lose their posting privileges for an appropriate amount of time.

 

C'mon people. Let's be nice. Jack was nice enough to become a TD member and post here. If we are respectful, maybe he will tell us about some things that we would love to hear about.

[Jack Goin]

Attention fellow TD members. We have verified that this post is from the actual Jack Goin, not an impostor. Please join me in welcoming Jack to TD.

 

I predict that if we respectfully invite Jack to have a friendly dialog, we may be rewarded with information that quenches our thirst. Obviously, Jack cannot give us any trade secrets, but maybe he could provide some tidbits that allay the concerns of those of us who feel that stats are not being used in an optimal manner.

Thanks glunn. Not really sure what, if any, insights I can provide. I was reading the comments for some reason and felt the need to say something. I know I'm probably walking into a hornets nest by getting on here but oh well. Maybe this can turn into something fun.