Mauer to 1st?

[Otto von Ballpark]

The next time Mauer appears in 160 games in a season will be the first.

 

He doesn't even have a 150 game season under his belt. He's gotten 600 PAs in a season 4 times.

 

If he catches 80 games, he won't get into 80 more no matter the position.

 

This I agree with, but I will add again that most players are unlikely to play more than 150 games no matter what their position. And 600 PA is a pretty high bar. Kirby Puckett is an outlier in playing time, not any kind of standard.

 

Torii Hunter, through his first 9 full seasons, averaged 13 more games and 30 more PA than Joe Mauer.

 

Cuddyer, in his 6 seasons starting for the Twins, averaged 9 more games and 25 more PA than Mauer.

 

Jacque Jones, in his six seasons starting for the Twins (through age 30, just like Mauer) averaged 24 more PA than Mauer.

 

Those are 3 of the most durable Twins of the Gardy era, and Mauer is basically right there with them, within 1 PA per week. Concussion and bilateral leg weakness and all.

 

EDIT TO ADD: I'm beginning all of the above averages with their first full starting seasons, so Mauer 2005, Hunter 2001, Jones 2000, Cuddy 2006.

[Otto von Ballpark]

So two of the last three years, he's had injury issues? Isn't that what happens as guys age, and isn't that an argument for moving him?

 

That might be a good point, although his most recent missed time is in a pretty special category (concussion).

 

If Torii Hunter had missed the last month of 2007 with a concussion, would you have suggested moving him due to increasing "injury issues" even if he was fully recovered for 2008?

[nicksaviking]

I don't like it but I might be able to be convinced that Mauer should move to 1B. But I'm not there yet. He still has a strong SLG/OPS but yuck, I have a hard time penciling in a guy at 1B who's going to top out at about 12 HR and 80 RBI. It's 1B! It's supposed to be where the run producer plays!

 

The smart rebuttal would be, "What the hell kind of fantasy world are you living in where you expect Parmelee and Colabello be a middle of the order bat?"

[Winston Smith]

"Sadly, no one seems to be developing a catcher's mask that uses modern materials and design to absorb more of the force of a foul tip. Unless that happens, Mauer's entire career could be ended by a single foul tip."

 

 

As I understand it most catchers use a "modern" mask. The problem is they switched to titanium which is lighter but also much harder than the old style. The older type mask had give, softer metal, which helped absorb the energy. The new harder metal does not.

 

They could use a goalie type mask which provides a lot more protection but is very hot in warm weather. It seems most catchers have opted for comfort over safety.

[Mike Sixel]

No, because Hunter didn't play the most dangerous position in the game. But I gotta say, the stats from your post are pretty enlightening......and they point out just how valuable Mauer has really been in his 9 years.

 

My belief, since we can't know the future with certainty, is that he's more likely to play more games, and longer in years, if he moves to 1B/DH sooner rather than later. And, I am willing to roll the dice on Pinto more than on random 1B from the system.

 

I'm not certain I'm right, but I'm more confident in him moving than staying.

[Siehbiscuit]

Mauer will stay catching as long as he possibly can whether right or wrong, because HE wants to. I do wonder two things though:

 

1) Would our very below-average pitching staff be improved enough to offset Mauer's offense if the Twins go with an elite defensive/pitch calling FA behind the plate (like a Jose Molina-type)?

 

2) Mauer had stated in an interview in the midst of his MVP season in 2009, that being out and not catching during spring training and most of April (which includes all the daily catching and not just games) that his hands felt incredibly "fresh." What would an entire season of the most valuable hands in the organization look like if he put on a first baseman's glove and hung up the catcher's pud? He may not return to his .365/.444./.587 slashline again, but could we see a .340/.425/.575 -type season again?

[gunnarthor]

Mauer will stay catching as long as he possibly can whether right or wrong, because HE wants to. I do wonder two things though:

 

1) Would our very below-average pitching staff be improved enough to offset Mauer's offense if the Twins go with an elite defensive/pitch calling FA behind the plate (like a Jose Molina-type)?

 

2) Mauer had stated in an interview in the midst of his MVP season in 2009, that being out and not catching during spring training and most of April (which includes all the daily catching and not just games) that his hands felt incredibly "fresh." What would an entire season of the most valuable hands in the organization look like if he put on a first baseman's glove and hung up the catcher's pud? He may not return to his .365/.444./.587 slashline again, but could we see a .340/.425/.575 -type season again?

 

I think the move from the Dome to TF had more effect on his power than a position change would have.

[Otto von Ballpark]

And, I am willing to roll the dice on Pinto more than on random 1B from the system.

 

Agreed. That's why I'd like to see Mauer and Pinto basically share C and 1B or DH (assuming Mauer recovers and Pinto keeps hitting), unless another decent 1B/DH emerges or can be signed.

 

I was advocating for something similar back in 2010 with Wilson Ramos.

 

Side benefit: it keeps Butera-type catchers off the roster.

[Otto von Ballpark]

He may not return to his .365/.444./.587 slashline again, but could we see a .340/.425/.575 -type season again?

 

Those slashlines are basically equal, when accounting for league and park.

 

There's no way that slugging ever comes back -- that wasn't hands, that was a Dome fluke. He had a barrage of HR just over the opposite field fence.

 

I think his line from the last two seasons is about as good as it will get. And it's still very good, which is why I hope this concussion stuff passes.

[nicksaviking]

How about we let Mauer continue catching and instead just convince the front office that the best way to reduce foul tips is to get starting pitchers who can miss bats more often? Much, much more often.

 

Seems like that skill migh come in handy in many facets of this game, not just in reducing foul tips of the All-Star catcher's head.

[Shane Wahl]

The issue isn't that Mauer is better or worse as a hitter depending on the position he plays. The point is that catching wears him down, reducing his playing time.

 

Maybe nuance is needed in this discussion? (haha, imagine that . . .)

 

The issue comes down to 600+ plate appearances as a 1B (no need to spend much time DHing, then) vs. risking not even getting 500 plate appearances if he is the primary catcher.

 

Of course the concussion issue adds the total disaster scenario. And that isn't good.

 

But the issue comes down to weighing the position vs. the number of likely plate appearances.

 

I am comfortable with Josmil Pinto and Chris Herrmann.

[stringer bell]

The issue isn't that Mauer is better or worse as a hitter depending on the position he plays. The point is that catching wears him down, reducing his playing time.

 

Maybe nuance is needed in this discussion? (haha, imagine that . . .)

 

The issue comes down to 600+ plate appearances as a 1B (no need to spend much time DHing, then) vs. risking not even getting 500 plate appearances if he is the primary catcher.

 

Of course the concussion issue adds the total disaster scenario. And that isn't good.

 

But the issue comes down to weighing the position vs. the number of likely plate appearances.

 

I am comfortable with Josmil Pinto and Chris Herrmann.

I'm not sure I am comfortable with Herrmann as Pinto's alternate. It is nice to have a guy that can play serviceably both behind the plate and at an outfield corner, but Herrmann couldn't hit in AAA, and his numbers for the Twins overall were uninspiring.

[DJL44]

"What is better, Mauer at first and pinto at catcher, or Mauer catching and random guy from the system playing first?"

 

Mauer catching and a random guy from the system playing 1B is the right answer. Mauer is by far the best defender they can put behind the plate. Colabello has outhit Pinto on the same minor league teams.

 

I can't stress this one enough - Mauer is the only good defensive catcher on the roster. Moving him to 1B would be a huge minus for team defense. Mauer could probably be equivalent to John Olerud at 1B but they win more games with him behind the plate at this time. If they go out and get a free agent catcher like John Buck then moving Mauer to 1B makes a lot more sense.

[Shane Wahl]

Oh well.

[twinsnorth49]

Despite a strong September (offensively), Pinto still has a lot to prove, the dropoff in value from Mauer to him at catcher may have more effect than whoever else the Twins have to man 1st and playing Joe more at catcher.

 

Platoon Parmelee and Colobello at 1st until June and then throw Plouffe over there in place of Colobello if Sano is ready for 3rd. I'd rather see that lineup come June than Mauer playing steady 1st this early.

 

This is provided the starting pitching is decent enough not to require 13 pitchers however.

 

 

 

ha ha ha ha ha ha............like the Twins are going to platoon anyone.......ha ha ha ha!!

[Mike Sixel]

The risk aversion on this thread is amazing to me. When would any rookie coming into the league not have stuff to prove? And, there is not a lot of evidence that mauer is a great or even very good defensive catcher anymore......

 

And, people state opinions like they are facts so often, it is hard to have a nuanced, actual, discussion.

[Winston Smith]

Comes down to this for me, you have $115m future investment in Mauer. Mauer catching increases the chances that a good amount of that money could be lost with little or zero return. If that was my investment I'd do everything I could to put him in the position that he'd play the most games and remain healthy. That would be no more catching!

 

On top of that we don't have a 1b ready to take over for Morneau and there are several decent free agent catchers that could share the job with Pinto or someone else.

 

The risk vs the minimal reward means imo, that the only common sense thing to do with that much money invested in the teams best asset is move him.

[Riverbrian]

I am strongly in favor of positional flexibility for our Joe Mauer.

 

I don't want to think of Joe Mauer as a catcher only anymore. I also don't want to think of him as our new everyday 1B.

 

Positional Flexibility for Joe Mauer creates options for Terry Ryan and Ron Gardenhire.

 

Ryan can shop at 1B or C or both if he needs to and that opens all doors for improvement.

 

Gardenhire can play matchups better during the season with Joe being flexible.

 

Joe should play wherever the context of the team needs him to play. Positional Flexibility will allow us to get Joe on the field more often and where we need him.

 

The only thing I don't want to hear... Is Joe saying that he wants to catch and catch only and then lock him into the position or any position.

[Alex]

For what it's worth, through Sept 13, 18 players in the MLB had been placed on the 7 Day Concussion DL. Of those 18, 10 were catchers.

 

With that information, it's tough to argue there's equal risk at other positions.

 

A link to the article: For catchers, concussion dangers all too real

[DJL44]

there is not a lot of evidence that mauer is a great or even very good defensive catcher anymore......

 

Actually, he was really good last season according to Fogging the Measure: Catcher Defense Ratings, August 29, 2013 | Getting Blanked | Blogs | theScore.com

[Mike Sixel]

From 2011 to 2013, 21 players had 1000 at bats that were catchers.....Mauer is 18th in defensive WAR over that three year span. now, that is largely driven by him being awful in 2012, but even in 2011 he was (of the 26 catchers with 300 ABs) 20th in defensive WAR. So, ya, he was really good in 2013, but awful in 2012, and below average in 2013.

 

Until 2013, his defensive WAR had dropped every year since its peak in 2007.

[Shane Wahl]

From 2011 to 2013, 21 players had 1000 at bats that were catchers.....Mauer is 18th in defensive WAR over that three year span. now, that is largely driven by him being awful in 2012, but even in 2011 he was (of the 26 catchers with 300 ABs) 20th in defensive WAR. So, ya, he was really good in 2013, but awful in 2012, and below average in 2013.

 

Until 2013, his defensive WAR had dropped every year since its peak in 2007.

 

Meanwhile, it is reasonable to expect that Mauer could be elite defensively as a first baseman. Maybe that sounds oxymoronic, but he would appear to be immediately an above average defensive first baseman.

[Willihammer]

Mauer is solid with the run game and blocking pitches but you can wipe away some of that contribution with the reduction in PAs. And then if you want to get into framing - he isn't especially great at getting the low strike, which would seem to be pretty important to a staff that is constantly told to keep the ball down.

 

Compounding the problem is that Doumit is notoriously lousy and what minor league data there is suggests Pinto was among the worst framers too. The answer then, IMO, is that none of these guys should be catching next year.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

Mauer catches 50, goes as 1B/DH for 80. That's what I'd like to see. No reason to explain it since everyone has their mind made up.

[Major League Ready]

There is an argument to be made either way. I lean toward protecting Mauer but he is less valuable at 1B if for no other reason than 1B is the easiest position to fill. Morales or Loney would be nice additions. If you really believe in Pinto, put Mauer at 1B and go sign a corner outfielder this off-season.

[Craig in MN]

I understand all the people who want Mauer to be remain at catcher, since his skill as a catcher are a great asset. I understand people who don't think the other Twins catchers are good gambles to play regularly. But it has been 4 full years since Mauer has caught even half of the Twins games. Whether it's concussion, bilateral leg weakness, or something else, he hasn't been even close to a full time catcher for 4 years. How do you plan for a guy to be your main catcher in year 5 when he hasn't done it for 4 years? No team would do that. I don't see it, and that's without acknowledging that his concussion issue is more likely to come back if he's catching.

 

So, at the least, I think the Twins need to have a plan for someone else to catch a ton. If the other guys on the roster aren't good enough to do that, they need to upgrade regardless. It's hard to upgrade catching, especially for a part-time catcher. If you are going to sign a catcher, you are either going to get another flawed guy who is an ok backup, or you are going to get a full-time catcher. You can't really do either if you want Mauer to catch, as there's not playing time to justify it.

 

You can, then, though, upgrade at first base or DH. Except there isn't a free agent first baseman/DH who is as good of a hitter as Mauer is. I can't find one, and it's not really closer, and that's without any increase in performance from him not catching. And you aren't going to trade for a first baseman that is a better hitter than Mauer. So the best possible first baseman for the Twins next year is Mauer....the hit at catcher is up for debate, but the pure performance at first base isn't.

 

If you want Mauer to catch, but you can't count on him catching because he hasn't done it for 4 years, you need to keep a position open for him at DH or first base a lot. Which means you can only upgrade at 1b/DH with lesser or part time player(s), so you're not really bringing in much talent there. Just the same as with catcher...you're frozen out from making any splash bigger than a ripple.

 

The choice comes down to either: Move Mauer to 1b, knowing that's an upgrade, and then try to upgrade at catcher, or keep Mauer as catcher and be stuck bringing in lesser, probably part time player(s). Or just stand pat and punt completely.

 

 

I don't want to punt. I don't want the sign some fringy guys and hope everything works out well. I want them to actually have a plan and make a move based on something that they can control. That means moving Mauer to first base (or at least away from catcher), and then upgrading as best they can in the other openings.

[DJL44]

Mauer was injured in 2011 so it should be expected that he's below average. He was lousy in 2012, recognized it and improved. He probably has 2 more seasons max as an above-average defensive catcher just due to his age. I think his defensive decline will push him to 1B eventually and I expect him to be above average at 1B after he moves. He is an outstanding athlete.

 

My guess is 2014-2015 are "transition" years where he only catches 80-100 games and he doesn't catch much after 2015. Ted Simmons caught 50 games past age 33. Joe Torre moved at age 30 but he was not a good defender. Yogi Berra was done catching full-time after age 34. Bench was done catching at age 32. Eventually Mauer will move to 1B and commenters can all say "I told you so".

[Marta Shearing]

What is better, Mauer at first and pinto at catcher, or Mauer catching and random guy from the system playing first? What is better, more at bats from Mauer, or less at bats from Mauer? Who gets hurt more, first basemen or catchers? Is Mauer more or less likely to play longer if he moves off catcher sooner, or later?

Thats solid reasoning that any clear thinking person not caught up in "positional value" should see.

[Marta Shearing]

It would be a completely different story if they had a solid starter at 1st base and DH and there wasnt anuwhere else for mauer to play. Thats not the case. As it stands, their most major league ready prospect is Pinto. He hit at every level last season, and appears to be a very promising player. Its ridiculous for Pinto to be held back when there's a glaring opening at 1st base.

[Willihammer]

Mauer was injured in 2011 so it should be expected that he's below average. He was lousy in 2012, recognized it and improved. He probably has 2 more seasons max as an above-average defensive catcher just due to his age. I think his defensive decline will push him to 1B eventually and I expect him to be above average at 1B after he moves. He is an outstanding athlete.

 

My guess is 2014-2015 are "transition" years where he only catches 80-100 games and he doesn't catch much after 2015. Ted Simmons caught 50 games past age 33. Joe Torre moved at age 30 but he was not a good defender. Yogi Berra was done catching full-time after age 34. Bench was done catching at age 32. Eventually Mauer will move to 1B and commenters can all say "I told you so".

 

A lot of those guys fell off a cliff after age 30 with the bat too. Torre never OPSed above .800 after 30. Berra rattled off 9 consecutive .800+ OPS but after age 31 took a pretty good hit. Similar stories with Bench, Pudge, even Piazza to a large extent.

 

I was going to blog about this actually after Matt Harvey elected to get TJ surgery, but abandoned it due to lack of evidence. But the career arcs of these guys seems to mirror Koufax, Drysdale, Marichal, Feller, Hunter, etc. The great pitchers who quit or became ineffective early in life due to fuzzy explanations like "sore arm" or "tired arm" which we now know to have been torn UCLs probably.

 

Maybe a similar thing has been going on with catchers. Maybe their knees and noggins are wearing down worse than anyone realizes.