Top 34 Free Agent Starting Pitchers

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Tim Diekers at Mlbtraderumors.com ranked the top 34 starting FA pitchers for next year. Here is what he had to say about the crop of arms:

 

"Sometimes, there's just not a $100MM free agent pitcher out there. C.J. Wilsonbenefited from a weak free agent starting pitching class after the 2011 season, nabbing $77.5MM to lead the group. In the upcoming offseason, the top end of the starting pitcher segment is similarly uninspiring. Here are my early rankings, which are subject to change."

 

Here are his top 5:

Matt Garza - In terms of pure free agent starters, I think Garza will receive the largest contract this offseason. He's ineligible to receive a qualifying offer because he was traded midseason, which boosts his value. He may have quieted health concerns by making all of his starts since his May 21st big league season debut and averaging nearly seven innings per start.

Masahiro Tanaka - Tanaka, a righty with the Rakuten Golden Eagles, is not technically a free agent but belongs here since he can be obtained by bidding the most (assuming he is posted). I don't want to give too much credit to the unknown, but there are some who would take Tanaka over Garza, especially since Tanaka will pitch next year at age 25.

Ervin Santana - A quality arm whose stock will be damaged by a qualifying offer, if he turns one down and reaches the open market.

Hiroki Kuroda - He'll play next season at age 39, but in feedback on early drafts of this list, most thought he should be this high.

A.J. Burnett - Burnett said in March he wouldn't want to play anywhere but Pittsburgh, and I imagine the team's success this year only solidifies that stance.

 

To see his full list here is the link:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/09/top-34-free-agent-starters.html

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm on the Tanaka bandwagon personally.

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I'm on the Tanaka bandwagon personally.

 

Me too. Would fill a need, match age wise, and bring much needed (good) media attention to the team hosting the ASG this year. Ben Badler at BA mentioned his total will pass Ryu's 62M but won't hit Darvish's 100M+ number.

[mudcat14]

For whatever reasons, I see Josh Johnson & Phil Hughes being high on the Twins list. Both are still pretty young for the level of experience that hey have and still have significant upsides if they can manage to put it together. JJ could offer a hometown discount, while Target Field may be the ideal home venue for Hughes' talents.

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For whatever reasons, I see Josh Johnson & Phil Hughes being high on the Twins list. Both are still pretty young for the level of experience that hey have and still have significant upsides if they can manage to put it together. JJ could offer a hometown discount, while Target Field may be the ideal home venue for Hughes' talents.

 

They defiantly seem like Twins targets. Neither will need large contracts or cost compensation picks. Last week Jon Heyman asked a rival GM if the Yankees would offer Hughes a qualifying offer and he had a pretty funny line in response. "They may make a qualifying offer. And I may run for president."

[notoriousgod71]

Whoever is 35-37 will be the Twins targets.

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Whoever is 35-37 will be the Twins targets.

 

Thanks for the input.

[Guest USAFChief]

I like Tanaka, and would like to see the Twins take a chance on Johnson. His struggles should keep the price down a little, but there's a lot of upside there if he ever gets healthy. IMO the Twins are in a position where they almost have to gamble on high upside, low downside lotto tickets. You might get nothing, but you might get something really, really good.

 

Hughes, IMO, isn't a real good gamble. He's not a "high upside" guy for one thing, and I'm leery of guys who's primary calling card is "he'll be better under easier conditions against lesser opponents."

[Shane Wahl]

I am not sure why reclamation projects are good. Players might want one-year deals to be successful and get the hell away from the Twins. The Twins *will not* win Tanaka. They *will not* sign Garza. I would be willing to go 3/$48 for Ervin and 2/$16 for Hughes.

 

I am not touching Josh Johnson or oldster pitchers. That kills a lot of the list.

[clutterheart]

I have not seen any reports that the Twins are scouting Tanaka and it would be shocking if the Twins outbid the Yankees for him anyway.

So I am not counting on this guy.

I would much rather overpay for guys like Garza and I think its 70% likely the team goes after Santana for the PR effect.

[jay]

I have not seen any reports that the Twins are scouting Tanaka and it would be shocking if the Twins outbid the Yankees for him anyway.

 

How's this? Twins intend to scout Japanese pitcher Masahiro Tanaka in coming weeks | 1500 ESPN Twin Cities ? Minnesota Sports News & Opinion (Twins, Vikings, Wolves, Wild, Gophers) | Sportswire: Minnesota Twins

[Mike Sixel]

This points out why sometimes you need to trade great prospects (gasp) for proven players..... but that is a path Ryan does not generally take. It also points out why their failure to develop a legit pitcher since Garza/Baker is the number 1 issue with this team, a failure that should have led to a complete re-do of the scouting and minor league coaching staffs, imo.

[jay]

I like Tanaka, and would like to see the Twins take a chance on Johnson. His struggles should keep the price down a little, but there's a lot of upside there if he ever gets healthy. IMO the Twins are in a position where they almost have to gamble on high upside, low downside lotto tickets. You might get nothing, but you might get something really, really good.

 

Hughes, IMO, isn't a real good gamble. He's not a "high upside" guy for one thing, and I'm leery of guys who's primary calling card is "he'll be better under easier conditions against lesser opponents."

 

I agree with your concepts, but I'll have to disagree on Hughes. Some people use the card you're talking about, but that would be said of basically anyone that pitched in the AL East. I think upside exists. He was a first round pick and reached #4 on BA -- plenty of folks say he hasn't reached his potential.

[Shane Wahl]

I took risks on Phil Hughes on my fantasy team back in 2007 and 2008. He owes me (the Twins).

 

I mean if we are talking Pavano money or Pavano money plus inflation, then that is a great signing.

 

I don't mind Johan as the third signing. For fun, essentially. And respect for what he did.

[nicksaviking]

The Twins are clearly interested in Tanaka, but reports are that many teams are, and by the time the bidding starts, likely most teams will have checked in. I think he could be signed at a price the Twins could afford, but I have serious doubts the Twins will win the bidding in what likely will be a $40-60 million posting fee considering the entire 2014 payroll will likely be little more than that.

[Tibs]

I just read today that the Yankees will be paying close to $30 million in luxury taxes for this season, which I think is the most ever. This could potentially make them not as high of bidders on these free agent guys.

[Monkeypaws]

Scott Kazmir anyone?

[Nick Nelson]

So some of the same people who are claiming that this is a dreadfully awful FA pitching market have also said they'd be fine with re-signing Pelfrey, who ranks 30th on this list.

 

Hm....

[pierre75275]

My wish list in this order:

Tanka

Ubaldo Jimenez

Scott feldman

Phil Hughes

Edison volquez

All these guys I think have potential to be much better then what we have been watching. I would be thrilled if TR signed 3 off this list and happy if he signed just one ..as long as it was tanka. But I dont believe he will shell out 60 million for the privilege of negogiating with him

[Shane Wahl]

Kaz and Feldman still scare me. I guess Hughes should too? The Twins need to get into a position where Correia goes further and further down towards being the 5th starter (and NOT because of a dramatic drop off in his numbers). I still think that Gibson is a guy who would immediately do that in 2014 (maybe I am naive). Other than that there would be a return of Deduno and the re-emergence of Diamond as being basically similar producers as Correia. Hopefully. And then there's Worley (seriously, what the hell happened there?). So there's Gibson and then fifth starters, the best best of which may be Correia. I would put E. Santana and Hughes (well above and just above, respectively) above him though. Signing those two would please me a great deal. Try three years for Ervin and two for Phil.

[LewFordLives]

After looking at the full list, the ones who intrigue me the most in terms of quality and signability are Nolasco, Feldman, Kazmir, Hughes, and Vargas. I think the Twins should try and get at least one from that group and then add another filler from the Pelfry/Baker pile. Ultimately the problems with the starting pitching will need to be solved from within, so they need to keep enough spots in the rotation open to keep getting the younger guys experience.

[nicksaviking]

Bored at work so I was checking out what else the Japanese leagues have to offer. Forget Tanaka, when does this kid get posted?

 

Shintaro Fujinami Japanese League Statistics & History - Baseball-Reference.com

 

A 6'5" Japanese pitcher?! Wow, and only 19.

 

I say if Ryan losses the posting fee bidding war on Tanaka, he puts a team together and starts rebuilding the pitching staff with a little extrodinary rendition.

[PseudoSABR]

So some of the same people who are claiming that this is a dreadfully awful FA pitching market have also said they'd be fine with re-signing Pelfrey, who ranks 30th on this list.

 

Hm....

You're right, Nick. Those same people probably intend to stop signing pitching once they've netted Pelfry. Signing Pelfry isn't mutually exclusive to any other move. We need to fill between 3 and 4 rotation spots.

[PseudoSABR]

I'm not sure how useful this list is. The top 5 seem good, but there's a lot of sketchiness from 5 to 10; the distance between 11 and 30 seems pretty marginal and mostly built on guesswork.

 

I'd like the Twins to sign Tanaka of course. But I could see them realistically signing one of Hughes/Johnson/Jimenez and one of a Saunders/Pelfry/Baker type player.

[Nick Nelson]

You're right, Nick. Those same people probably intend to stop signing pitching once they've netted Pelfry. Signing Pelfry isn't mutually exclusive to any other move. We need to fill between 3 and 4 rotation spots.

I'm guessing the Twins feel that they need to fill, at most, two rotation spots externally. Given the iffy nature of everyone who will be tabbed for the other slots, they need to aim higher than Pelfrey, who might be better than this list suggests but offers little upside.

[PseudoSABR]

I'm guessing the Twins feel that they need to fill, at most, two rotation spots externally. Given the iffy nature of everyone who will be tabbed for the other slots, they need to aim higher than Pelfrey, who might be better than this list suggests but offers little upside.

He might also offer little downside, as he's had some success pitching for us; he's not my preference but I can certainly understand why the Twins would want to mitigate their risk. Signing say both Hughes and Johnson, might leave you with absolutely nothing, though we can dream bigger on both. Signing a guy like Pelfry, might make signing a third free agent, some one even riskier like Baker or Volquez more palatable.

[Mike Sixel]

I agree with Nick, we'll likely see no more than 2 signed.

 

KC

Gibson

Deduno

FA

random guy from system from a long list of names

 

This is how I think (and this is totally a guess) the Twins would like at things. And, frankly, I'm not sure I'd disagree.

 

I would think TR thinks May or Meyer will be ready at some point next year (and I think I agree), that Gibson is penciled in for sure, and that he has KC signed.....Diamond/Worley/Hendriks/Albers is random guy....that really leaves only 1-2 spotes (me, I'd sign two outsiders).

[jay]

I agree with Nick, we'll likely see no more than 2 signed.

 

Have to agree as well. I'd be reasonably satisfied if that were a mid- to higher-end guy (Johnson/Hughes/Jimenez) for a few years at $10M+ and more of a lottery ticket on a mid- to lower-end guy with more upside than a Correia.

[ThePuck]

Yesterday, a fan on another site I frequent wrote:

 

"Realistically the Twins were eliminated the minute Terry Ryan said he was happy with the starting pitchers he acquired in the off-season"

If he was happy with what he did last offseason, why would we think he'd even bother to shoot higher this coming offseason?

[twinsnorth49]

I agree that 2 are signed, this thread is eerily similar to last off season in what people think the Twins may realistically sign in the potentially higher class (Johnson, Jimenez, Hughes) types.

 

My bet is one of Saunders/Pelfrey type and one of Baker/Marcum/Santana as the annual reclamation pick.

 

Tanaka? In the immortal words of President George H.W. Bush, "Not gonna do it".