Willingham on waivers

[stringer bell]

For anyone that thinks there's actually a rational baseball reason for signing Justin Morneau, you should read this piece from a fan of another team: The Problem With Justin Morneau - The Triangle Blog - Grantland

That is a fine column. It pretty much summarizes how I feel about Justin. It is time for him to go.

[PseudoSABR]

For anyone that thinks there's actually a rational baseball reason for signing Justin Morneau, you should read this piece from a fan of another team: The Problem With Justin Morneau - The Triangle Blog - Grantland

 

I actually take issue with a few things in the this article that don't quite jive:

He’s an impending free agent, and as a veteran bat with a reputation for hitting for power, he’ll probably require a non-trivial amount of money to sign to a contract extension. That would be unwise for two reasons: First, if Morneau returns to Minnesota, he’d expect to play often. The best thing about Minnesota right now is the health of its farm system — not only are the Twins unlikely to contend for the division before Morneau’s obsolescence, they also need to blood the youngsters who will be coming up in the coming years, and every at-bat Morneau gets would probably be better spent developing Miguel Sano or Oswaldo Arcia.

I don't think he's going to cost all that much to retain (he's a league average (or less) first baseman). And he's really not blocking one, at least for the next couple of years. (The notion that he's taking at bats (or would be) from Arcia or Sano is pretty out of touch).

 

Sure, there's some sentiment in my wanting Morneau to remain a Twins for a couple more years, but there's also rational baseball reasons, too. Parmelee doesn't look great, the DH is currently filled with a rotating veteran anyway, and he should come relatively cheap.

[Mr. Brooks]

I actually take issue with a few things in the this article that don't quite jive:

I don't think he's going to cost all that much to retain (he's a league average (or less) first baseman). And he's really not blocking one, at least for the next couple of years. (The notion that he's taking at bats (or would be) from Arcia or Sano is pretty out of touch).

 

Sure, there's some sentiment in my wanting Morneau to remain a Twins for a couple more years, but there's also rational baseball reasons, too. Parmelee doesn't look great, the DH is currently filled with a rotating veteran anyway, and he should come relatively cheap.

 

Parmelee hasn't looked great, and I, along with others, don't think he'll be an everyday MLB player. But, that doesn't make it fact.

There were plenty of rational people, both here and in the media, who thought the same thing about Brian Dozier.

The only way to find out for sure, is to let him play every single day, for an entire season. EVERY DAY. He's a young pup, he doesn't need days off. He doesn't need to sit against lefties. The only way to get better against lefties is to play against lefties.

Unfortunately, that will never happen as long as Morneau, Willingham, and Doumit are on the roster.

If Gardy is the manager, and those 3 players are on the roster, Parmelee will get jerked in and out of the lineup, and we'll never know, for sure, if he is an MLB player or not.

[freshinthehouse]

I wouldn't be outraged if the Twins re-signed Mourneau, but I'd much rather they roll with what they have (Parmalee/Collabello). I haven't given up on either of those two, and would love to see them get consistant ABs next year. If the Twins are going to spend money at first, throw it at that kid from Cuba.

[PseudoSABR]

Parmelee hasn't looked great, and I, along with others, don't think he'll be an everyday MLB player. But, that doesn't make it fact.

There were plenty of rational people, both here and in the media, who thought the same thing about Brian Dozier.

The only way to find out for sure, is to let him play every single day, for an entire season. EVERY DAY. He's a young pup, he doesn't need days off. He doesn't need to sit against lefties. The only way to get better against lefties is to play against lefties.

Unfortunately, that will never happen as long as Morneau, Willingham, and Doumit are on the roster.

If Gardy is the manager, and those 3 players are on the roster, Parmelee will get jerked in and out of the lineup, and we'll never know, for sure, if he is an MLB player or not.

Right, it's not a fact that Parm will fail as MLBer, but it's hardly a truth that he'll succeed. We're gambling, here. Not making truths.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Parmelee hasn't looked great, and I, along with others, don't think he'll be an everyday MLB player. But, that doesn't make it fact.

There were plenty of rational people, both here and in the media, who thought the same thing about Brian Dozier.

The only way to find out for sure, is to let him play every single day, for an entire season. EVERY DAY. He's a young pup, he doesn't need days off. He doesn't need to sit against lefties. The only way to get better against lefties is to play against lefties.

Unfortunately, that will never happen as long as Morneau, Willingham, and Doumit are on the roster.

If Gardy is the manager, and those 3 players are on the roster, Parmelee will get jerked in and out of the lineup, and we'll never know, for sure, if he is an MLB player or not.

 

You hit the nail on the head here... Though truthfully, we only need one of them to go for Parmelee to get consistent PT. Personally, I think it should be Doumit, but Willie or Morneau leaving would open up a spot as well.

[TheLeviathan]

Right, it's not a fact that Parm will fail as MLBer, but it's hardly a truth that he'll succeed. We're gambling, here. Not making truths.

 

Right but we only find that out if he plays.

[Mike Sixel]

Not to mention, Doumit, Willingham, and Morneau are 1/3 of the hitters on one of the worst offenses in MLB the last few years.....not sure why people want to keep them, or even two of them, around.

[Guest USAFChief]

Not to mention, Doumit, Willingham, and Morneau are 1/3 of the hitters on one of the worst offenses in MLB the last few years.....not sure why people want to keep them, or even two of them, around.

By that logic Mauer needs to go too, right?

[Mike Sixel]

By that logic Mauer needs to go too, right?

 

Excpet Mauer is good.....they are not. But ya, that was sloppy language....and Mauer is signed for 5 more years....and is the face of the franchise.

[Guest USAFChief]

Excpet Mauer is good.....they are not. But ya, that was sloppy language....and Mauer is signed for 5 more years....and is the face of the franchise.

Willingham and Doumit both had good seasons as recently as 2012, and were often cited as reasons for optimism about the offense going into 2013. I think they are both excellent bounce back candidates, are signed cheaply, and the time to trade them is when they recover some value, or at the least when someone from the minors is pushing them off their spot. Neither of those are true right now.

[Mike Sixel]

Pinto should be the backup catcher next year, not Doumit, imo. He might have a future. Herrman can be the third catcher, and plays RF better than Doumit. I just don't see a reaason for him to be on the roster. I have acknowledged that keeping Willingham might make sense. I see no reason to keep Justin. They can sign the Cuban. they can sign others. They can sign Ellsbury and move Arcia to 1B. Lots and lots of options are better than Morneau (and he's my favorite Twin of the recent era).

[zenser]

[quote=Thrylos;158709 c. the Twins will save $9M that they can put towards a real starting pitcher for 2014.

QUOTE]

 

I like this idea but we all know that we will more than likely give 3 crappy pitchers $3 million each.

[golfboy1]

Not to mention, Doumit, Willingham, and Morneau are 1/3 of the hitters on one of the worst offenses in MLB the last few years.....not sure why people want to keep them, or even two of them, around.

 

This year, yes they have been bad. Last year Willingham had 35H'sR & 110RBI's & Doumit was 18 & 75. Morneau was/is untradeable with his contract & his stats.

 

Unless the Twins did an Astro's style complete rebuild they weren't going to unload them last winter. Ryan has taken the approach of trying to stay competitive & rebuild at the same time. You could argue whether this is best but I can see their rationale in this approach.

 

This winter I would hope that Morneau isn't resigned & they try to move Willingham at some point. Doumit has little value & they might as well keep him for now.

 

If they are going to get rid of them just because they are 1/3 of one of the worst offenses in the league(this year)....they better get rid of Plouffe,Thomas, Florimon, etc. Someone has to play & right now there doesn't appear to be anyone better to take their place.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't agree there are not better options next year.

 

Sign the Cuban 1B, sign Ellsbury, bring up Pinto, move Arcia/Mauer to 1B/DH (and RF and C), Herrmann as the utility RF/Dh/3rd catcher, lots and lots of moves are avialable.

 

Oh, and if they roll out Thomas, Plouffe, Morneau, Doumit, Floriman..as 55% of the lineup most days...you really think the offense is going to be "competitive"?

[Oldgoat_MN]

I am not of the notion that Morneau is easily replaceable. I believe he is a much safer choice for next year than Parmelee or Colabello.

 

However, both of those guys have raked in AAA. Could one of them be for real against MLB pitching? Maybe.

 

Do we go into next year uncertain that either can hit, but plan of making a decision after 400 PA? That could be very costly to our Win/Loss record.

[old nurse]

Right but we only find that out if he plays.

 

600 PA at the major league level. For that time he is league average iso and babip, way above league average in strikeouts. He would be an average hitter if he could only make contact with the ball when pitched. Why doesn't he make contact? Mechanical error? Not quite fast enough?

[golfboy1]

I don't agree there are not better options next year.

 

Sign the Cuban 1B, sign Ellsbury, bring up Pinto, move Arcia/Mauer to 1B/DH (and RF and C), Herrmann as the utility RF/Dh/3rd catcher, lots and lots of moves are avialable.

 

Oh, and if they roll out Thomas, Plouffe, Morneau, Doumit, Floriman..as 55% of the lineup most days...you really think the offense is going to be "competitive"?

 

I'm not sure if you are replying to me but...

 

I agree they should try whatever they can to improve .Hopefully Morneau isn't back & I don't mind them trading Willingham for a decent prospect. Maybe the Cuban 1b is an option but I don't see Ellsbury as an option. He is going to want a LOT of money for a LOT of years. That doesn't fit the Twins MO & why sign a CF long term when that is the position we have minor league strength at?

 

"Oh, and if they roll out Thomas, Plouffe, Morneau, Doumit, Floriman..as 55% of the lineup most days...you really think the offense is going to be "competitive"? "

 

Sadly, no. I think they are going to suck next year also. But my point was the whole offense...minus Mauer, sucks. Dumping 2 guys that have a proven history of producingwhile we keep running guys like Plouoffe, Thomas, Hermann Berneir , etc out there just shows how much work the Twins have to do & how hard it can be to acquire good, solid players.

 

It's easy to say.. They suck, let's get someone else in here but it's actually not that easy to find players who are better. I'm sick of seeing Thomas & Plouffe at the plate every game but the reality is they haven't found anyone better right now. Maybe.(big maybe).. Parmelee produces but I'm willing to bet he never puts up numbers as good as Willingham did in 2012 or previous seasons.

[Mike Sixel]

Ellsbury could play LF when Buxton is up.....and he's good, and not slowing down. And they have the money, I'm offering options for the team to be better, if they choose to cut off one channel for doing that, that's their decision. And, the cuban is going to want a lot of money for a lot of years.....They don't have a GLUT of OFers....we don't know if Hicks can hit, Arcia looks bad in the field, Kepler is going to be a 1B/Dh over time (if he's even good, he's in low A)....there is plenty of room for a proven veteran that contributs 3 WAR a year, both on the field and in the budget.

 

Ellsbury makes them better next year, and for several years beyond. They won't sign pitchers to long deals, maybe they should spend that money on hitters.

[bird]

Willingham and Doumit both had good seasons as recently as 2012, and were often cited as reasons for optimism about the offense going into 2013. I think they are both excellent bounce back candidates, are signed cheaply, and the time to trade them is when they recover some value, or at the least when someone from the minors is pushing them off their spot. Neither of those are true right now.

 

Perfectly stated.

[Mike Sixel]

Well, the Twins and their fans were optimistic about Doumit, Fangraphs predicted he'd be bad and part of the problem with the Twins this year.....

 

I guess the part I struggle with is that this team has lost a lot the last three years, and people seem to be proposing keeping the same team together....that seems unlikely to lead to much improvement, imo.

[Monkeypaws]

Ellsbury could play LF when Buxton is up.....and he's good, and not slowing down. And they have the money, I'm offering options for the team to be better, if they choose to cut off one channel for doing that, that's their decision. And, the cuban is going to want a lot of money for a lot of years.....They don't have a GLUT of OFers....we don't know if Hicks can hit, Arcia looks bad in the field, Kepler is going to be a 1B/Dh over time (if he's even good, he's in low A)....there is plenty of room for a proven veteran that contributs 3 WAR a year, both on the field and in the budget.

 

Ellsbury makes them better next year, and for several years beyond. They won't sign pitchers to long deals, maybe they should spend that money on hitters.

 

Why would Ellsbury sign here?

 

Going from a powerhouse that spends freely to a doormat that does not?

 

Makes no sense to me to even think it is in the realm of possibility.

[Tibs]

I would love to have Ellsbury, but I'm doubtful he will come to the Twins. Why come to the Twins when we might not be good until 2015 when he could go to a team that will be good next year? Unless of course we make some moves in the offseason and some of our prospects are ready earlier than expected.

 

On mlbtraderumors.com they are saying it is unlikely right now Willingham will be traded. I hope this changes between now and next season. I would like to see his spot/money given to a player or pitcher who can help us beyond next year, which Willingham most likely can't.

[Mike Sixel]

A wise man (or several) once said "follow the money".

 

Just to be clear, are you guys giving the team another excuse for not signing FAs, they just won't come here?

 

I never said it was realistic given how the Twins operate, but I'm told over and over money is no object, and that Ryan will now start spending money.....if that is true, I'm offering my opinion on how to effectively do that, given teh FA choices next year. If they choose not to sign expensive guys, well, that's their choice. I'm suggesting what I would do.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I would love to have Ellsbury, but I'm doubtful he will come to the Twins. Why come to the Twins when we might not be good until 2015 when he could go to a team that will be good next year? Unless of course we make some moves in the offseason and some of our prospects are ready earlier than expected.

 

On mlbtraderumors.com they are saying it is unlikely right now Willingham will be traded. I hope this changes between now and next season. I would like to see his spot/money given to a player or pitcher who can help us beyond next year, which Willingham most likely can't.

 

I cannot see why we'd want Ellsbury. If you want FA on a long term contract, go get a guy that fits a position of need, not one at a position where the farm is relatively strong.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I cannot see why we'd want Ellsbury. If you want FA on a long term contract, go get a guy that fits a position of need, not one at a position where the farm is relatively strong.

 

Yeah... I don't get why the Twins should be pursuing outfielders. They have a handful of them that project to be quality MLB players.

 

Go find pitching. Go find a shortstop. Go find a first baseman. Those are positions the Twins need filled going forward (though it could be argued that they don't need a first baseman and that Plouffe/Parmelee could field a nice platoon).

[ScottyB]

Why would Ellsbury sign here?

 

Going from a powerhouse that spends freely to a doormat that does not?

 

Makes no sense to me to even think it is in the realm of possibility.

 

This. Plus he's a Boris client.

 

Yeah... I don't get why the Twins should be pursuing outfielders. They have a handful of them that project to be quality MLB players.

 

Go find pitching. Go find a shortstop. Go find a first baseman. Those are positions the Twins need filled going forward (though it could be argued that they don't need a first baseman and that Plouffe/Parmelee could field a nice platoon).

 

And this

[Tibs]

Ellsbury would instantly make this team better, and there would definitely be room for him on the roster. What other outfielders do we have that could help us next year beyond Willingham, Arcia, and Hicks? Buxton could possibly be up next year. Even with Buxton, we could have Hicks, Ellsbury, and Buxton in the outfield with Arcia at DH.

 

The Twins need pitching more than anything right now, but it's not like signing Ellsbury would be a terrible thing.

[Mike Sixel]

Yeah... I don't get why the Twins should be pursuing outfielders. They have a handful of them that project to be quality MLB players.

 

Go find pitching. Go find a shortstop. Go find a first baseman. Those are positions the Twins need filled going forward (though it could be argued that they don't need a first baseman and that Plouffe/Parmelee could field a nice platoon).

 

 

What pitching is available next year (and if you think it is unrealistic to sign a hitter long term, what makes you think they'll start doing that with pitchers)? And, I've also said get a 1B. Who, exactly, is playing CF, LF, RF next year that is better than Ellsbury? Who the following year? Who is the SS they can sign that is actually good? You can only sign guys that are available, as I've been reminded over and over.

 

Hicks can't hit, Willingham, Doumit and Arcia can't field, Thomas is bad all around.....

 

If not Ellsbury, who would you suggest they sign?

[Brock Beauchamp]

What pitching is available next year (and if you think it is unrealistic to sign a hitter long term, what makes you think they'll start doing that with pitchers)? And, I've also said get a 1B. Who, exactly, is playing CF, LF, RF next year that is better than Ellsbury? Who the following year? Who is the SS they can sign that is actually good? You can only sign guys that are available, as I've been reminded over and over.

 

Hicks can't hit, Willingham, Doumit and Arcia can't field, Thomas is bad all around.....

 

If not Ellsbury, who would you suggest they sign?

 

I'd take a run at Johnson and Hughes, for sure. I think Phil Hughes is a very capable #3, maybe even a marginal #2 away from New York.

 

None of the Twins outfielders will be better than Ellsbury in 2014 but with Arcia, Hicks, and Buxton all requiring everyday ABs by the end of 2014 (possibly 2015 for Buxton but I think he'll be here sooner), the Twins are already cramped at the position and have other, more significant needs on the diamond.