Jose Abreu defects

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm sure this is lighthearted. Right?

 

I edited oldnurse's response to your post... That wasn't entirely clear.

[John Bonnes]

One thing that might be interesting to limit the bidding would be his position. The Dodgers have Adrian Gonzalez, so they likely aren't going to the mat. Tigers are full up too. Red Sox have Ortiz, but is Napoli only 1 year? I forget. Yankees have Texeira but DH is open unless someone like ARod needs to move there. Ankles have Pujols but could DH. Tex and TOR seem likely to be aggressive.

 

I will say this - a few years ago, the Twins decided that International players were a market inefficiency and that they would be aggressive. I don't know if that has changed w Ryan, but it could still be there, hidden.

[drjim]

I edited oldnurse's response to your post... That wasn't entirely clear.

 

You did ruin my joke with that action. I was crushed.

[John Bonnes]

Completely agree, his rep was built on selling people who weren't old enough to understand any other factors. Money was their only factor and Boras (thank you for the spelling, I didn't feel like looking it up) was great at exploiting/getting that. Did you read his article today for Buster Olney? Maybe that should be it's own forum but I haven't taken the time to figure out how to start one. But his article was pretty good, but I disagreed with him on some major points.

 

here's how to start your own thread:

1. First, make sure you’re logged in, which you must be if you’re able to comment on stories.

 

2. Then, at the top of the site, right under “TwinsDaily”, you’ll see a red line with words in it. One of them is “Forum”. Click on that.

 

3. This will take you to a list of forums where we discuss Twins stuff. You can even see how many people are in each forum at the time. Click one. (For Twins stuff, click on “Minnesota Twins Talk” or for minor league stuff like the Sano question, click on “Twins Minor League Talk”.)

 

4. This launches a bunch of topics that people are talking about, with the most recently discussed topic on the top. You can see who started it, who last commented on it and how many replies is has already. You can click into any of them and comment just like you would on a story (by hitting reply or scrolling down to the end of the story.)

 

5. HOWEVER, you can also start your own topic. In the upper left-hand corner you’ll see a blue box that says “+ Post New Thread”. If you click on it, it will open an area much like a blog,, but it’s put into the forum where a lot of people hang out. (About 40% of all our traffic is just in these forums.) Add a title, and your thoughts and click on “Submit New Thread.” You’ll then see your topic in that forum.

 

6. One final tip. You can also see all the topics in all the forums that have been recently commented on by clicking on “New Posts” just under the “Forum” menu item. You can’t start a thread on that page, because it’s not really in any one “forum”, so to start a thread, just go back to step #2.

[John Bonnes]

Completely agree, his rep was built on selling people who weren't old enough to understand any other factors. Money was their only factor and Boras (thank you for the spelling, I didn't feel like looking it up) was great at exploiting/getting that. Did you read his article today for Buster Olney? Maybe that should be it's own forum but I haven't taken the time to figure out how to start one. But his article was pretty good, but I disagreed with him on some major points.

 

here's how to start your own thread:

1. First, make sure you’re logged in, which you must be if you’re able to comment on stories.

 

2. Then, at the top of the site, right under “TwinsDaily”, you’ll see a red line with words in it. One of them is “Forum”. Click on that.

 

3. This will take you to a list of forums where we discuss Twins stuff. You can even see how many people are in each forum at the time. Click one. (For Twins stuff, click on “Minnesota Twins Talk” or for minor league stuff like the Sano question, click on “Twins Minor League Talk”.)

 

4. This launches a bunch of topics that people are talking about, with the most recently discussed topic on the top. You can see who started it, who last commented on it and how many replies is has already. You can click into any of them and comment just like you would on a story (by hitting reply or scrolling down to the end of the story.)

 

5. HOWEVER, you can also start your own topic. In the upper left-hand corner you’ll see a blue box that says “+ Post New Thread”. If you click on it, it will open an area much like a blog,, but it’s put into the forum where a lot of people hang out. (About 40% of all our traffic is just in these forums.) Add a title, and your thoughts and click on “Submit New Thread.” You’ll then see your topic in that forum.

 

6. One final tip. You can also see all the topics in all the forums that have been recently commented on by clicking on “New Posts” just under the “Forum” menu item. You can’t start a thread on that page, because it’s not really in any one “forum”, so to start a thread, just go back to step #2.

[ashbury]

John B is trying to be subtle, I'm not: this tangent topic of what role money may play in trying to sign Abreu has gone on far enough, as it has generated more heat than light. Let's keep the topic to Abreu, if there is actually anything more to say. Simply being argumentative risks further moderator action.

[ThePuck]

No question the number has grown, yet no one ever says "female nurse", do they?

 

Not that I've ever heard.

[big dog]

deleted post (even though it was spectacularly interesting, at least to me). I refer to Harry Markowitz' pathbreaking work on generating the "efficient frontier" of stock portfolio development by using covariance analysis to develop optimal diversification strategies, minimizing risk for every possible expected return. I then draw a parallel to baseball contracts, with suggestions for future research (which is of course impossible since we seldom know all the possible contracts players consider, but hey that's how it goes).

 

Ah, but it's all over...I'm melting...what a world, what a world....

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

Very high risk, but very high reward. We just got done paying Morneau 12 million a year at 1B, why not take a chance and grab his replacement for a similar amount? The Chris Parmelee experiment is basically done and I don't see too many guys being above average regulars at first for the Twins. It's starting to look like Plouffe may not have the bat for first, Colabello is old, and Sano will probably stick at 3B. There's potential in Kennys Vargas, but putting all our eggs in one basket would be a bad idea. Even if he were to pan out, we sort of need a DH too. You never know what could happen. If this guy looks like somewhat of a safe bet, outbid the other teams and grab him. I would be psyched if they did. When a player has potential to be an elite hitter in baseball, it's worth the risk. Having him and Sano just makes me...dream.

[Mike Sixel]

Very high risk, but very high reward. We just got done paying Morneau 12 million a year at 1B, why not take a chance and grab his replacement for a similar amount? The Chris Parmelee experiment is basically done and I don't see too many guys being above average regulars at first for the Twins. It's starting to look like Plouffe may not have the bat for first, Colabello is old, and Sano will probably stick at 3B. There's potential in Kennys Vargas, but putting all our eggs in one basket would be a bad idea. Even if he were to pan out, we sort of need a DH too. You never know what could happen. If this guy looks like somewhat of a safe bet, outbid the other teams and grab him. I would be psyched if they did. When a player has potential to be an elite hitter in baseball, it's worth the risk. Having him and Sano just makes me...dream.

 

Love this post.

[AROG]

I am a little worried that he wouldn't be able to consistently hit MLB pitchers, but say he drops 100 points in his BA, he will still hit like .275-.300 until he does figure out MLB pitchers, and that with some power. I agree, we don't really have any other internal options, not close anyway. If we could get Abreu and have him in the lineup next year, that puts the rebuild process in fast gear. I think that if we could win him for around 6 years and $55 million he should be a good bet.

 

PS my opinion has been changed, two days ago, I was on the forget about it side, but after really digging into as much about him as I could, he seems like a guy that has enough plate discipline to be a pro.

[darin617]

He will be signing with the Baltimore Orioles. He is a very good friend of Henry Urrutia and they also signed another Cuban OF Dariel Alvarez back in July.

 

Baltimore is finally becoming competitive again and they don't have a fear of signing International players like some organizations.

[howieramone1406390264]

He will be signing with the Baltimore Orioles. He is a very good friend of Henry Urrutia and they also signed another Cuban OF Dariel Alvarez back in July.

 

Baltimore is finally becoming competitive again and they don't have a fear of signing International players like some organizations.

 

Baltimore did not sign any of the top 30 International prospects this year. The Twins were one of a handful of teams that took a long hard look at Miguel Gonzalez. What I read was many teams backed out because of question marks and asking price.

[snepp]

here's how to start your own thread:

 

Step 7: How to delete one of your posts after double posting.

 

 

 

/wrath incurred

[howieramone1406390264]

I am a little worried that he wouldn't be able to consistently hit MLB pitchers, but say he drops 100 points in his BA, he will still hit like .275-.300 until he does figure out MLB pitchers, and that with some power. I agree, we don't really have any other internal options, not close anyway. If we could get Abreu and have him in the lineup next year, that puts the rebuild process in fast gear. I think that if we could win him for around 6 years and $55 million he should be a good bet.

 

PS my opinion has been changed, two days ago, I was on the forget about it side, but after really digging into as much about him as I could, he seems like a guy that has enough plate discipline to be a pro.

 

Do I dare ask where you got the 6 years and $55M? I'm guessing you made a WAG, but will certainly stand being corrected.

 

 

Edit: Just read an article in Rant Sports. All it said was it could cost $80M. No other details.

[Oxtung]

Article on ESPN about Abreu. Jerry Crasnick talked to 4 scouts who were not big fans.

 

"If he is simply what he is right now, he will probably develop into a middle-of-the-road first baseman with '80' raw power, who guesses and kills mistakes and inferior pitching but struggles against top-quality guys," the scout said.

 

Multiple scouts used the term "slider-speed bat" in reference to Abreu.

 

The scouts were not impressed to say the least. One scout tossed out a contract in the range of 4 years $32-40 million. Of course he also said:

 

There are 30 teams out there, and there will be people bidding for him, and it comes down to what the market will bear," said a scout. "I've been shocked before. No matter what you think is going to happen, it's usually going to be higher.

 

 

It would be interesting to know if this tempers enthusiasm a bit.

[old nurse]

Article on ESPN about Abreu. Jerry Crasnick talked to 4 scouts who were not big fans.

 

 

 

 

 

The scouts were not impressed to say the least. One scout tossed out a contract in the range of 4 years $32-40 million. Of course he also said:

 

 

 

 

It would be interesting to know if this tempers enthusiasm a bit.

 

What percent of prospects need to learn to hit a major league slider?

 

You chopped of the part that said the same scout would not be surprised to see 10 million a year.

[Mike Sixel]

Ya, several scouts were still impressed....but it was an interesting article.

[nicksaviking]

Article on ESPN about Abreu. Jerry Crasnick talked to 4 scouts who were not big fans.

 

 

Originally Posted by Crasnick

"If he is simply what he is right now, he will probably develop into a middle-of-the-road first baseman with '80' raw power, who guesses and kills mistakes and inferior pitching but struggles against top-quality guys," the scout said.

 

 

To be fair, this is the entire quote:

 

"If he is simply what he is right now, he will probably develop into a middle-of-the-road first baseman with '80' raw power, who guesses and kills mistakes and inferior pitching but struggles against top-quality guys," the scout said. "That's not a bad floor, actually, and that's the reason why he'll get paid anyway. But he may disappoint the expectations of 'best hitter on the planet' that some have already placed on him."

 

Most players struggle against another team's ace and feast on the back of the rotation arms. If he's not going for more than $10M/per, I think a guy with a floor of a middle-of-the-road 1B is a pretty good bargain.

[Oxtung]

What percent of prospects need to learn to hit a major league slider?

 

You chopped of the part that said the same scout would not be surprised to see 10 million a year.

 

The scouts weren't talking hitting a major league slider in that quote. They were implying that he can't hit a fastball.

 

4 years and $40 million is $10 million per year.

 

To be fair, this is the entire quote:

 

"If he is simply what he is right now, he will probably develop into a middle-of-the-road first baseman with '80' raw power, who guesses and kills mistakes and inferior pitching but struggles against top-quality guys," the scout said. "That's not a bad floor, actually, and that's the reason why he'll get paid anyway. But he may disappoint the expectations of 'best hitter on the planet' that some have already placed on him."

 

Most players struggle against another team's ace and feast on the back of the rotation arms. If he's not going for more than $10M/per, I think a guy with a floor of a middle-of-the-road 1B is a pretty good bargain.

 

$10MM for middle of the road 1B seems expensive. Loney got 1 year $2M last off season. Mark Reynolds 1yr/$6MM. Morneau was a middle of the road 1st baseman last year and I think everybody would agree he was overpaid. Nick Swisher signed a 4 year $56MM contract but he has been well above average at 1B. I don't know how high salaries will climb this year but if Abreu is "middle of the road" $10MM would be quite an increase from previous seasons.

 

Now all that said the Twins have plenty of money, lack talent, and scouts have been wrong before. I would not mind the signing. I am just not as excited by it as I would have been for Guerrero or Tanaka.

[nicksaviking]

$10MM for middle of the road 1B seems expensive. Loney got 1 year $2M last off season. Mark Reynolds 1yr/$6MM. Morneau was a middle of the road 1st baseman last year and I think everybody would agree he was overpaid. Nick Swisher signed a 4 year $56MM contract but he has been well above average at 1B. I don't know how high salaries will climb this year but if Abreu is "middle of the road" $10MM would be quite an increase from previous seasons.

 

Now all that said the Twins have plenty of money, lack talent, and scouts have been wrong before. I would not mind the signing. I am just not as excited by it as I would have been for Guerrero or Tanaka.

 

But that's not what the scout is saying, he's saying a middle-of-the-road 1B is his floor. $10M for a floor that is average is pretty good when you consider what the ceiling may be. I'd also argue that until this year Loney was a well below average 1B and Reynolds has been below average his entire career save one year.

 

I'd also prefer Tanaka, but I think he is going to be much more expensive and if the new posting rules surface, where the player can choose between three teams, he's almost certainly going to chose a coastal city with a larger Japanese population unless the Twins have a substantially higher offer. If these new rules take hold, it is going to make it near impossible for the Twins to get a top Japanese player. Not that they seemed likely to get one in the first place.

[cmb0252]

Abreu would be a great upside signing, obviously with some risk, but from what I have read the Twins haven't been linked to him at all. Boo.

[Oxtung]

But that's not what the scout is saying, he's saying a middle-of-the-road 1B is his floor. $10M for a floor that is average is pretty good when you consider what the ceiling may be. I'd also argue that until this year Loney was a well below average 1B and Reynolds has been below average his entire career save one year.

 

I'd also prefer Tanaka, but I think he is going to be much more expensive and if the new posting rules surface, where the player can choose between three teams, he's almost certainly going to chose a coastal city with a larger Japanese population unless the Twins have a substantially higher offer. If these new rules take hold, it is going to make it near impossible for the Twins to get a top Japanese player. Not that they seemed likely to get one in the first place.

 

The scouts opinion was that the most likely outcome, or as he put it "If he is simply what he is right now, he will probably develop into a middle-of-the-road first baseman with '80' raw power...", was that Abreu turns into an average player. So yes, in one scouts opinion he might have a higher ceiling but the chances are that he won't reach it.

 

You're right Loney has been below average, but then he's paid like it too. On the other hand Mark Reynolds has been the definition of average offensively for first basemen. LaRoche got 2/$24MM and Washington certainly thought he was above average since they extended him a QO. Berkman got 1/$10MM and he has been above average. Carlos Pena signed a 1yr/$7.25MM deal going into 2012 and he had been average to above average.

[TRex]

The scouts opinion was that the most likely outcome, or as he put it "If he is simply what he is right now, he will probably develop into a middle-of-the-road first baseman with '80' raw power...", was that Abreu turns into an average player. So yes, in one scouts opinion he might have a higher ceiling but the chances are that he won't reach it.

 

I guess I disagree with your interpretation of the quote... to me, the scout is saying he will, AT WORST, be average. While in mean/mode speak, you are correct in that average is the most likely possibility, this is a 1-tailed and not a 2-tailed distribution (i.e. it is not 'possible' for him to be worse) which is very different.

 

I would also rather pay $10 million/year for years 26-29 with Abreu than years than $14 million/year for Swisher's years from 33-36 (same for Morneau). I also like that Abreu's raw power (like Sano's) will allow him to reach the seats at Target Field.

 

And the best thing about a potential Abreu signing is that, similar to the 'League of Nations' infield that returned relevancy to the Twins at the turn of the decade, the Twins could sport an all Caribbean 'League of Nations' infield when Rosario comes up... Abreu (Cuba) at 1st, Sano (DR) at 3rd, Florimon (DR) at SS, Rosario (PR) at 2nd and Pinto (VZ) behind the plate!

[kab21]

Abreu is a strange case since he has dominated all int'l competition that he has been in but rarely were the top pitchers representing those countries. For example his WBC stats this year didn't come against any of the MLB Asian pitchers despite being in a pools that included Taiwan (Chen and Wang), Korea (Ryu) and Japan (Darvish and a few others). Japan could have had a few top arms on their WBC teams but for the most part he faced AA/AAA level pitchers like Stuifbergen for example.

 

These comments by actual scouts are interesting since I was completely unimpressed by Abreu when I saw him play in a WBC warmup game. He's a major leaguer but he's not Cuba's Barry Bonds like a story from a couple of years ago was alleging (based on numbers).

[Oxtung]

I guess I disagree with your interpretation of the quote... to me, the scout is saying he will, AT WORST, be average. While in mean/mode speak, you are correct in that average is the most likely possibility, this is a 1-tailed and not a 2-tailed distribution (i.e. it is not 'possible' for him to be worse) which is very different.

 

I would also rather pay $10 million/year for years 26-29 with Abreu than years than $14 million/year for Swisher's years from 33-36 (same for Morneau). I also like that Abreu's raw power (like Sano's) will allow him to reach the seats at Target Field.

 

And the best thing about a potential Abreu signing is that, similar to the 'League of Nations' infield that returned relevancy to the Twins at the turn of the decade, the Twins could sport an all Caribbean 'League of Nations' infield when Rosario comes up... Abreu (Cuba) at 1st, Sano (DR) at 3rd, Florimon (DR) at SS, Rosario (PR) at 2nd and Pinto (VZ) behind the plate!

 

I'm not sure what there is to disagree with. That quote is abundantly clear as it states "...he will probably develop into a middle-of-the-road first baseman..." Everything else is just a dressing on the window to make it look pretty and cover the unknown.

 

You are certainly entitled to your opinion on Abreu's value but that doesn't change the fact that historically $10MM/yr for an average 1B is an overpay. If you believe Abreu will be above average or that salaries are going to rise significantly this off season than clearly his salary would be justified.

 

Again, I don't have a problem with the Twins pursuing Abreu, I was just relating an article that disagreed with what seemed to be most people's opinions of his talents.

[Major League Ready]

Doesn’t it all come down to what they want to do with Mauer. If they believe Pinto is for real, moving to Mauer to 1st makes more sense. Our infield looks very good and could be set for the next several years Sano gets here the middle of next year. By 2015 our outfielders are Buxton, Rosario, Hicks, and Arcia. That’s quite a line-up.

 

Buxton

Rosario

Mauer

Sano

Arcia

Dozier

Hicks

Pinto

Florimon

[old nurse]

I'm not sure what there is to disagree with. That quote is abundantly clear as it states "...he will probably develop into a middle-of-the-road first baseman..." Everything else is just a dressing on the window to make it look pretty and cover the unknown.

 

You are certainly entitled to your opinion on Abreu's value but that doesn't change the fact that historically $10MM/yr for an average 1B is an overpay. If you believe Abreu will be above average or that salaries are going to rise significantly this off season than clearly his salary would be justified.

 

Again, I don't have a problem with the Twins pursuing Abreu, I was just relating an article that disagreed with what seemed to be most people's opinions of his talents.

 

Historically the league average WAR for an average full time 1B is over 2. That would make 10 million about right.

[old nurse]

Doesn’t it all come down to what they want to do with Mauer. If they believe Pinto is for real, moving to Mauer to 1st makes more sense. Our infield looks very good and could be set for the next several years Sano gets here the middle of next year. By 2015 our outfielders are Buxton, Rosario, Hicks, and Arcia. That’s quite a line-up.

 

Buxton

Rosario

Mauer

Sano

Arcia

Dozier

Hicks

Pinto

Florimon

 

A mentality on the Twins that needs to change is that you have just enough talent to fill out your roster. There is nothing wrong with having more than 9 strong position players.

[Major League Ready]

A mentality on the Twins that needs to change is that you have just enough talent to fill out your roster. There is nothing wrong with having more than 9 strong position players.

 

I don't think it's a mentality. Every team would like to have all 25 guys on the roster be above average to great. Finding those players and paying for them long-term is another matter. If your point is that this should not dissuade them from pursing Abreu, I could go either way. They certainly could share catcher, 1st base, and DH duties among Mauer, Pinto, and Abreu. That could work out great. For me it would come down to confidence level on Abreu. I would rather them spend 30-35M on pitching as long as the contracts are 4 years or less and preferably 3 years.