Article: Trending in the Right Direction

[Seth Stohs]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=2189-Trending-in-the-Right-Direction

[old nurse]

Dozier is improving. Deduno has shown improvement over last year. One could make an argument for Florimon is improving. I wish the list from people who started some games last year for the Twins and have shown improvement this year was larger.

[glunn]

I hope that you are on to something here. I would feel even greater optimism if Parker would post some video and an explanation of what Dozier might be doing differently at the plate in terms of mechanics.

 

Hopefully Dozier can be a bright spot when we look back on this season.

[Joe A. Preusser]

There are plenty of bright spots for the year:

 

Dozier - showing he can stick and be a + MLBer

Floriman - showing he can stick at the MLB level

Arcia - flashing great plate talent

Hicks - showing flashes of the above average MLBer he will be

The Pen - one of the best in baseball despite a lot of innings

Deduno - showing he can stick as a 4-5 starter

Thomas - showing more talent and results than anyone (including me) gave him credit for - should stick somewhere as a 4th outfielder now at least

Other than that, I bet we are excited by some of the Sept call-ups.

 

Jury is still out on Parm and Plouffe. Those were specifically two things I wanted clarified this year that seem unlikely to be. Rotation has been much worse than I expected.

[Blackjack]

Good article.

 

One question I have is why did he have to get to the major leagues before they figured he couldn't play shortstop?? The same could be said for Plouffe. What does that say about the Twins development of infielders?? If they had been moved earlier in the minors they would have more experience and wouldn't be learning at the major league level.

[ericchri]

Reverse Samson effect? He chopped off his flowing locks and now he's a stud?

 

I've previously wondered if the Twins might move him back to short to make room for Rosario at 2nd, but I'm honestly really torn over that one. He looks so natural at 2nd base, it'd suck if he struggled a bit defensively at short if moved back. His potential bat would sure look nice at short, though. A couple games ago Roy Smalley noted that he thought Dozier was better off at 2nd base, too. While Roy might not be the world's greatest scout, I'm pretty confident he knows more about baseball and playing shortstop than I ever will.

 

One thing I really like about Dozier and even Florimon is that they actually have the ability to hit the ball over the fence. It's so frustrating to watch a Nick Punto/Ben Revere/Jamey Carroll and know there's little chance of anything but a single if they get a hit. They don't need to be in the league leaders or anything, but just offer the threat to make the pitcher a hair more cautious.

[jay]

It is interesting to note that despite playing in 19 fewer games than Pedroia, he has just two fewer putouts and five fewer assists, which means he’s getting to more plays per game than Pedroia. Is that more range, or just more ground balls from pitchers?

 

The Twins staff is at 44.7% GB while the Red Sox are at 43.9%.

 

Based on that minor difference alone, we could estimate Dozier would have 2% more plays on a per inning rate (realistically there's more at play here, but I digress). Pedroia is seeing .501 plays per inning (Assists+Putouts/IP), so Dozier should be just barely above that at .511. Dozier's plays per inning? .633

 

Safe to say the metrics on range (RZR and rPM, the range component of DRS) like Dozier this year.

[Mike Sixel]

Nice writeup Seth. I admit to overlooking the improvement in the hitting.....and being stuck on the overall numbers. If this is a real trend, he is a legit 2B. Rosario? Good question.

[Otto von Ballpark]

The Twins staff is at 44.7% GB while the Red Sox are at 43.9%.

 

Based on that minor difference alone, we could estimate Dozier would have 2% more plays on a per inning rate (realistically there's more at play here, but I digress). Pedroia is seeing .501 plays per inning (Assists+Putouts/IP), so Dozier should be just barely above that at .511. Dozier's plays per inning? .633

 

Safe to say the metrics on range (RZR and rPM, the range component of DRS) like Dozier this year.

The Twins pitching staff has 300 fewer strikeouts than Boston's, and almost 100 fewer strikeouts than the next lowest MLB team (Houston). Not sure how that is factored into the advanced metrics, but regardless of ground ball rates, Twins players are seeing way more chances in the field than others.

 

I wonder if that isn't inflating the defensive stats of our better fielders (Florimon, Dozier, Hicks) and deflating the stats of our worse fielders (Doumit, Willingham). Also, simply the presence of worse fielders at LF, RF, and 3B might boost the better fielders at 2B, SS, and CF -- every time Arcia or Doumit misplay a ball, it lengthens an inning and increases the likelihood of additional chances for Dozier and Florimon.

 

Again, not sure how all this is filtered through the various metrics, and not to take away from Dozier's and Florimon's performance, but it will be interesting if they can maintain this level in the future, as hopefully better fielders and pitchers are put in place around them.

[DJL44]

Dozier skips AAA, lays an egg in the big leagues and eventually figures it out.

 

Hicks skips AAA, lays an egg in the big leagues, ????

 

It is a good idea for Rosario and Sano to spend some time in AAA too. Skipping AAA only works for the most elite prospects.

[admscttgngl]

Great article. It's nice to see the guy getting recognized for the improvements he's made. One thing I noticed about Dozier recently is how he has been coming through in big spots late in games. I checked out fangraphs and found he's 2nd only to Cano in wOBA in high leverage situations. Here's hoping he keeps it rolling in to next season.

Major League Leaderboards » 2013 » Batters » Standard Statistics | FanGraphs Baseball

[Seth Stohs]

My honest opinion is that we are probably making far too much out of his defense last year. There were nerves. He got into some bad streaks defensively. He is better at SS than what we saw. Players/Pitchers who played with him in the minor leagues loved him. He's steady and solid at SS, but now at 2B, he's really, really good.

 

I do think a lot of it is just being more and more comfortable.

[Shane Wahl]

Rosario is up in June next year at the earliest. Even after he comes up, there can be considerable platooning between he and Dozier at second and Rosario can get some time in LF and DH, while Dozier can spell Florimon and Plouffe once in awhile.

[Mike Sixel]

Dozier skips AAA, lays an egg in the big leagues and eventually figures it out.

 

Hicks skips AAA, lays an egg in the big leagues, ????

 

It is a good idea for Rosario and Sano to spend some time in AAA too. Skipping AAA only works for the most elite prospects.

 

Sano is the number 4 or 5 prospect in baseball, I'm pretty sure he's elite. I'd love him up here as soon as he's ready, whether he goes to AAA or not.

 

Nice first post. I like the parallels.

[Seth Stohs]

Great article. It's nice to see the guy getting recognized for the improvements he's made. One thing I noticed about Dozier recently is how he has been coming through in big spots late in games. I checked out fangraphs and found he's 2nd only to Cano in wOBA in high leverage situations. Here's hoping he keeps it rolling in to next season.

Major League Leaderboards » 2013 » Batters » Standard Statistics | FanGraphs Baseball

 

I purposely didn't mention the two or three big hits from last weekend because that's such a small part of the story. That's some of the right man, right time kind of thing... Anyone can come up with a game-winning or game-tying hit (not to minimize the importance of them)... but Dozier's improvement has happened over 9-10 weeks, not just one weekend.

[nicksaviking]

Good article and the advancement of Dozier is encouraging, but based on the title of the article, I think we have to be honest and realize that this team isn't going to improve based on Dozier's development. Thus far, three of the organizations top propsects have made it to the big leagues and two of them have performed below the expectations of even the most dour of Twins fans.

[Siehbiscuit]

The most disappointing thing about this season is not seeingany progress from Trevor Plouffe or Chris Parmalee. We all knew our pitching staff was going to be awful, but held out hope for of the young bats to breakthrough.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Offensively, I will note that as good as Dozier's OPS is since late May, he's been around the ~.700 OPS plateau for the last month-plus. He basically ended July with almost the exact season rate stats that he had when he began July, and also where he sits today. And if some SO:BB magic clicked for him in June, it mostly deserted him in July, when he basically repeated his April across all stat categories except with more XBH. That suggests he still might settle in closer to .700 OPS overall, which is a big improvement from last year, but I think I'd need to see a near-repeat of his June to upgrade his forecast much beyond that (i.e. .750 territory).

 

Interestingly, Chris Parmelee reached a similar sub-.600 OPS season low point (although not quite as low) in late May, then had an solid stretch of .350+ OBP and .500+ SLG into July with solid SO:BB rate, just like Dozier. Then that rate and his season trend reverted at about the exact same time as Dozier's, during/after the Toronto series (obviously Parm crashed much harder than Dozier, though).

 

Maybe something to do with the quality of opposition we were facing, that their seasons have tracked so closely to one another? The Twins as a whole posted by far their best monthly OBP and SLG in June this year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

The most disappointing thing about this season is not seeingany progress from Trevor Plouffe or Chris Parmalee. We all knew our pitching staff was going to be awful, but held out hope for of the young bats to breakthrough.

To be fair, Parmelee and Plouffe were virtual non-prospects until they both experienced AAA breakouts. Definitely nice AAA breakouts, to be sure, but that kind of history always give me pause.

 

Interestingly, Dozer was almost the reverse -- he had a good minor league track record (albeit generally older, as a college draftee) before cratering at AAA (and MLB) last year.

 

AAA really is the strangest level of pro baseball, I think.

[drjim]

Dozier skips AAA, lays an egg in the big leagues and eventually figures it out.

 

Hicks skips AAA, lays an egg in the big leagues, ????

 

It is a good idea for Rosario and Sano to spend some time in AAA too. Skipping AAA only works for the most elite prospects.

 

Dozier didn't completely skip AAA but this is a great reminder. Almost every player returns to the minors at some point.

[jorgenswest]

The first measures that become reliable in small samples are strike out rates and base on ball rates (as well as flyball groundball data)

 

While the samples in the article are too small to justify a conclusion of improvement, I think there has also been an significant improvement in the walk and strike out rates.

[roger]

Great article Seth. As you know, I have been wondering about this question for awhile. I see Dozier as being Dustin Pedroia lite. Hard working, hustling, very solid defensive second basemen. Decent bat with occassional pop. Kind of guy you like to have on a winning team, a gamer!

 

What to do with Rosario, who some believe will be ready on opening day, is another question. With so many holes in this team, you can't put Dozier on the bench. That means they have to find another spot for Rosario and right field certainly makes the most sense. If my memory is correct, both Gardy and Moliter have previously talked about Rosario's bat being ready for the big leagues.

[jay]

I see Dozier as being Dustin Pedroia lite.

 

I think the Twins and Twins fans would be thrilled if Dozier could sustain performance of anything resembling Dustin Pedroia (lite, medium, or heavy). I'd add high OBP to the list of crucial ingredients to do so.

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

I am going to be the devil's advocate here (or something). I saw Dozier live here in DC in June and he was absolutely dreadful on defense--he made an error (that wasn't given) that led to 5 runs that should have been unearned--overall in that game I would rate his defense poor. I have seen him a couple of other times on the tube and highlights on twinsbaseball.com and he has looked better. I don't think he is Pedroia lite and no reason to start him over Rosario when the kid is ready. To me, Dozier is a slightly better Little Nicky Punto and no more.

[Otto von Ballpark]

The first measures that become reliable in small samples are strike out rates and base on ball rates (as well as flyball groundball data)

 

While the samples in the article are too small to justify a conclusion of improvement, I think there has also been an significant improvement in the walk and strike out rates.

 

Not sure if I see a trend here, or just a one-month blip:

 

[TABLE=class: grid, width: 150]

Month

BB

SO

April

6

14

May

3

21

June

15

14

July

6

18

August

2

5

[/TABLE]

 

Outside of June, those BB:SO rates aren't appreciably different from 2012. What is different is he is getting more XBH.

[ThePuck]

I am going to be the devil's advocate here (or something). I saw Dozier live here in DC in June and he was absolutely dreadful on defense--he made an error (that wasn't given) that led to 5 runs that should have been unearned--overall in that game I would rate his defense poor. I have seen him a couple of other times on the tube and highlights on twinsbaseball.com and he has looked better. I don't think he is Pedroia lite and no reason to start him over Rosario when the kid is ready. To me, Dozier is a slightly better Little Nicky Punto and no more.

 

So, because he had one bad game, you'd rate his defense poor. He's looked to me to be above average on defense for the season. Fangraphs seems to agree.

[Steve Penz]

Please leave Rosario alone. I feel strongly that to take him off of the 2B path is an error. If he was meant to be a star outfielder then they would have left him there. He has shown to be a great hitter at every level of the minors and all reports say his D is improving. Dozier had a similar A+ / AA (combined) year like Rosario is having now but he did that at age 24 with less power and less RBIs. I say that assuming that Rosario completes this year at the same pace he is on now. We have corner outfielders in the hopper and let’s hope they continue to develop. I do like Dozier and as Seth showed, in the latter 57 games of this year he has been good but it is .262 good. How good is that? IMO the scenario we want is that he continues to improve and so does Rosario so when the time is right, the Twins can use one of them to get more pitching because both are solid second baseman. When you put Rosario at LF or RF then his numbers become a lot less impressive but if you leave him at 2B he can be exceptional. I think that if they leave Rosario at 2B that in 2017 the Twins will look back and rejoice that they made that decision because they may have one of the best-hitting second basemen in the MLB. If you want to say Dozier's performance is headed in the right direction that is one thing. To start saying he is the future is something very different.

[ThePuck]

Please leave Rosario alone. I feel strongly that to take him off of the 2B path is an error. If he was meant to be a star outfielder then they would have left him there. He has shown to be a great hitter at every level of the minors and all reports say his D is improving. Dozier had a similar A+ / AA (combined) year like Rosario is having now but he did that at age 24 with less power and less RBIs. I say that assuming that Rosario completes this year at the same pace he is on now. We have corner outfielders in the hopper and let’s hope they continue to develop. I do like Dozier and as Seth showed, in the latter 57 games of this year he has been good but it is .262 good. How good is that? IMO the scenario we want is that he continues to improve and so does Rosario so when the time is right, the Twins can use one of them to get more pitching because both are solid second baseman. When you put Rosario at LF or RF then his numbers become a lot less impressive but if you leave him at 2B he can be exceptional. I think that if they leave Rosario at 2B that in 2017 the Twins will look back and rejoice that they made that decision because they may have one of the best-hitting second basemen in the MLB. If you want to say Dozier's performance is headed in the right direction that is one thing. To start saying he is the future is something very different.

 

It was my understanding, and it could be wrong, is that the team felt it was loaded with OF talent at the time so they moved him to 2B.

[Steve Penz]

It was my understanding, and it could be wrong, is that the team felt it was loaded with OF talent at the time so they moved him to 2B.

 

That may be right. Whatever drove the decision, I think it was a good one and they have invested 2 years in this project. Let it run.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Pedroia, for his career, has more BB than SO, and his career low season OPS (this year so far) is .785. Dozier has exactly one month where he has done either of those things at the MLB level. Less than a season of defensive similarity is about it for those two.

 

Dozier is probably "Pedroia lite" as much as Jermaine Jackson was "Michael Jackson lite".