What Would It Take for the Twins to Re-Sign Ryan Jeffers?

[MeleMouth]

FanGraphs crowdsource has Bauers at 3/$51. There are good arguments that Jeffers should be worth more than Bauers, including that he's younger yet has a longer track record, and especially if you consider that he could catch and then switch to first base for a few years. 

[Coach]

4 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

Just a mathematical comment to add.  The Twins already have $23M allotted to Jeffers for 2027.  So a 3-year $50M offer is actually a 2-year extension for $27M ($13.5M AAV).

Nice catch!

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

I think the national guys are low on the AAV, I think it’s 20M minimum and might push to match the QO earning.

And I’d still pay it. There is just so little on the free agent market I want. If he’s willing to sign prior to free agency, I’d take the bird in the hand over risking losing out on Arozarena, Suzuki or Lowe. Pass on pretty much any other offensive free agent.

And I still pursue one of those three guys presuming Tom Pohlad was being truthful about expanding the payroll and 155M is the floor. As it should be.

Except this hasn't been the case historically. Teams who want catching help will only overpay so much before changing their attention on the trade market where there are plenty of as good/better options for much cheaper than that.

[bjorks]

4 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

This thread has a number of thoughtful comments covering a return of Jeffers versus the cost opportunity of that decision. It is easy to see the support for Jeffers and also easy the support for strengthening the roster elsewhere.

It seems like these discussions always come back to budget and nobody appears to have any idea of even the range of where the roster expenditures will rest in 2027. The Opening Day payroll for last season was just under $105M. Most people would agree that a 25% increase is significant, which would put the number for 2027 around $131M. The voices of anger will scream (perhaps rightfully) about the past cuts. Thus I feel that the Twins should be considering a budget of $150M. A higher number, while sweet for addressing team needs, might not be supportable by resources. That I do not know; I cannot know that information.

In consideration of the above, and using the general numbers currently for 2027, the 2027 payroll sits around $120M. Adding Jeffers brings back a bat that people like but it constrains the moves the team can further make. It also pushes back on a definitive goal that was slowly introduced last season, the need of improving the defense. Pushing back against that would seem counterproductive, at least to me. The pitchers need help from the guy they throw to.

So it would take two things to bring back Ryan Jeffers. First, the team would have to backtrack on their movement towards fielding a better defensive team. Second, the Twins would be largely returning the same basic roster they currently employ because the budget is unlikely to go beyond $150M and even that seems like a bit of a stretch. 

I would rather the team make aggressive moves to add  Jazz Chisholm on a 1 year high paying contract where he can rebuild his market value or sign the steady predictable Brandon Lowe. I would also hope the club can complete trades, hopefully 2-3. 

The beauty of it is that we just watch, guess like crazy, and then see what happens. The past practice has been largely disappointing. What will this November bring?

We also have to remember there are 29 other teams with various sized pocket books who are trying to improve their teams also. 

Falvy on KFAN had some interesting points about there's 2 ways to win and it seems like for mid/small market teams the chance they have is defense and contact hitters vs. sluggers as the sluggers out price themselves. 

Makes you wonder about bringing someone like Arraez back based on defensive metrics at 2B. I love what the Padres did with him batting him 4th and seems to fit the model Falvy referred to. The path seems to be leaning if we truly have 2 GG players in Lee/Houston on the left to possibly investing in the right. Who knows what that looks like moving forward. 

As much as I've advocated to resign Jeffers it seemingly is as much due to necessity as anything because of again...the alternative who is Victor Caratini. I'd rather have a bit of an offensive outlier at a premium position and sacrifice defensive metrics than a no-bat player. The team that scores more still wins. 

[nicksaviking]

22 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Except this hasn't been the case historically. Teams who want catching help will only overpay so much before changing their attention on the trade market where there are plenty of as good/better options for much cheaper than that.

Is there someone better available in a trade? The clock is going to run fast this year with the CBA expiring. Teams are going to have to decide to either pony up early, or risk missing out all together if they don’t have an answer before time runs out.

[bean5302]

4 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Is there someone better available in a trade? The clock is going to run fast this year with the CBA expiring. Teams are going to have to decide to either pony up early, or risk missing out all together if they don’t have an answer before time runs out.

Every player in baseball is available in a trade and Jeffers is no where near the best catcher in MLB. He's "average" for a starter

[Twins GFP]

Sign-ability is really the point. Players chose Boras as an agent when their priority is top-dollar. I don't think the Twins will match some of the potential offers.

If the Twins were really intent on keeping Jeffers, I would see them offer something like 2/$40MM. Yes it is an overpay, but a shorter commitment. Especially if they are not in the market for another bat in that price range. The higher AAV has at least a chance of getting it done.

[nicksaviking]

32 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Every player in baseball is available in a trade and Jeffers is no where near the best catcher in MLB. He's "average" for a starter

Jeffers is one of the best hitting catchers in the league, he's nowhere close to average. The lineup would have a huge hole in it if he's replaced with someone else.

[AceWrigley]

I'm not sure why people here think Ryan Jeffers even wants to play for the Twins any more. If Vaughn Lackey plays well enough to be one of the Twins catchers in 2028, where does that leave Jeffers? Wouldn't he be better served to find a team that wants him to be their starting catcher for 3 of 4 years, and with a real hope of making the post season? I just don't see him re-upping with the home team.

[AceWrigley]

Hey, I wonder if Kody Clemens can catch? 😀

[rdehring]

Has always seemed like Jeffers both likes this team and was happy here.  Doesn't mean he will take a discount but could mean he is amenable to signing on for a very nice three-year contract before November 17.  What that means for average dollars is beyond all of us, rather is up to Zoll, Pohlad, Boras and mainly Ryan. 

Good news is we will know where this is headed in about 11 days.  I hope like h.... they get it done.

[Parfigliano]

9 hours ago, DJL44 said:

There will be several teams bidding at 3 years and $45M. The winning bid will go 4 years. 4/$60M might be enough to keep him in a Twins uniform.

TC isn't spending that plus Caratini's pay on the C position.

[miller761]

Sign Carson Kelly. His last contract was a 2 year deal for 11.5 million. Much more affordable than what Jeffers wants, better  defense and the hitting is not that far off. Spend the money on a much better hitter.

[TJSweens]

8 hours ago, UK Twin said:

We shouldn't be against giving him 3 or 4 years because he can simply shift to 1B and DH when Lackey is ready. Having said that, I wouldn't be against using the money elsewhere either. I really want us to spend proper money on the bullpen for example.

Jeffers has a good bat for a catcher, not really for a 1B / DH. No way would I go 4 years.

[Jacksson]

TP would have to loosen the purse strings on the accumulated Pohlad family fortune.

[TNtwins85]

They’ll have to overpay so 4/80 is probably the start and the Twins are not doing that with Lackey let alone Tait/Jimenez in the mix. My prediction is he signs with the Yankees for 4/75. No way he comes back on an extension and a 40/60 chance he comes back on the QO.

[bean5302]

19 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Jeffers is one of the best hitting catchers in the league, he's nowhere close to average. The lineup would have a huge hole in it if he's replaced with someone else.

I hate to do this to the fans who believe Jeffers is something special but...

Even in the best year of his entire career, Jeffers produced 1/2 WAR over an average catcher. Jeffers is generally about a 2.0 WAR player. He's AVERAGE. "Best hitting" doesn't matter so much when he's not good defensively... at a defense-first position.

Why would a team give up $10MM per year for 0.5 WAR? Why would a team give Jeffers some crazy 4 year contract when they could trade for a Shea Langeliers, who is better than Jeffers and cheaper, and by all the accounts of the inflated viewpoint of an average player around here whatever team signs Jeffers is already going to lose a high round draft pick. I guess this is a function of Twins fans rarely being treated to a decent player for more than a single year around here, but that's a common thing for other teams not to just have one year wonders.

https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/york-yankees-trade-idea-offloads-232054392.html

[TopGunn#22]

This is why the qualifying offer was a no-brainer for the Twins.  As a one-year bridge to Lackey, $23 million is steep but doable because it's just a one year commitment.  But I think the estimates for the ultimate contract Jeffers gets are LOW.  The Yankees alone will assure this.  They want to keep Ben Rice as a DH/1B.  That was clear after this last season's trade deadline. 

So this likely means the Twins are looking at an end of round #1 compensatory pick.  I say "well played" by the Twins FO.  I would use that pick on the highest ceiling possible pitching arm available.  The suggestion of Carson Kelly as a fall back position when Jeffers inevitably signs with the Yankees is excellent.  The quote from Falvey about small market teams needing to lean on defense and pitching is shocking, since in his era the Twins never prioritized defense.  

Look at what we DID, not what Falvey SAYS.  We played Brooks Lee far too many innings at SS before the obvious lack of athleticism necessitated a move to 3B.  We played Larnach and Wallner in the corner OF positions with the idea that Buxton's speed and range would forgive all sins.  That didn't work either.  We tried to get a better glove at SS with Correa, but his being consistently injured messed that up.  Sadly, that was predictable with his being turned away by the Giants and Mets.

And if the Twins are truly committed to improving defensively, Carson Kelly is a much better defensive catcher than Jeffers and while not the equal with the bat, will not be automatic out-Christian Vasquez either, at a fraction of the cost to retain Jeffers.  At that point, I go hunting for Randy Arozarena.  He'd be a great RH OF bat who could provide a consistent presence, especially if Jenkins and E-Rod have injury issues during the season.    

[TopGunn#22]

Great graphic Bean5302.  Jeffers at #9 puts him Top Ten.  But it's a little shaky when you consider a better defensive catcher having a a better than usual offensive season.  For winning baseball, a good hitting catcher is a nice luxury.  But often times a skilled defensive catcher is a necessity.