How Joe Ryan’s Projected Arbitration Salary Changes His Trade Market

[killercarewoliva]

17 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins have to listen. Perhaps the Twins should be so bold as to ask for possibilities/odds of acquiring a player or two from some teams with Ryan as part of the return.

There isn't any reason to trade Joe Ryan unless the return is reasonable, but there should be opportunities.

if Joe is pitching his usual fantastic way in the first half and he looks like he's regressing before you get to the trade deadline if he's not going to offer a second half other than a earn-run average of over six then that is the time to possibly trade him if that's going to continue. but the twins need his pitching on the mound. his right-handed my gosh. he's got a unbelievable slider. you can't even hit it. also, when you look at the lack of depth, the picking staff is going to have most likely as usual by the trade deadline. then you can't trade that you'll be decimated as a pitching staff, even if he doesn't exactly throw an in earned run average of three.

[Scott51104]

"I agree that it seems like Joe doesn't want to stay here.  So, I recommend testing that theory.  Throw out a long term contract to him, maybe $10/20/25 or something?  If he bites, then great.  Problem solved.  If not, then you know, so then plan on trading him."

If the FO/ownership has not already tested that theory, there is little hope for the Twins.

[JADBP]

4 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Zero chance you get Flora for Ryan. 

I know....but there must be a good trade out there.  We should have jumped on that BOS trade offer last year,  They offered Payton Tolle and Arias for Ryan....an absolute crazy haul!  Tolle had a better year than Ryan, in just his first full season.  Tolle is a monster and we would have him through 2030!  Dammit!

Again, either resign Ryan now (this offseason) or trade him.  Don't repeat the Jeffers disaster.  

[JADBP]

5 hours ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

I like the concept of picking a lane, but getting an Ace SP for Ryan Jeffers last off season? Not a chance. Maybe a ceiling limited #3 or #4 starter, a good but not great middle infielder, or 1 top 100-150 prospect but no way was he ever worth an Ace SP. 

Same issue with Ryan. He has only 1 year before he costs $25-$30m a year or more on a longer term contract. That limits his value and the trade possibilities. I think he's worth a starting level MLB player plus a solid but not spectacular prospect. I'd like to see him traded for a quality starting catcher if Ryan is not re-signed or a higher end 2B, plus a prospect. I think that's doable in the offseason. If we wait to the deadline for a trade, the MLB player goes away, and we would be lucky to get a grade 50 prospect plus a grade 40 prospect with the better prospect at least 2-3 years away from MLB. You have to explore the market now unless you realistically think you can re-sign him. I just think we have to be realistic about the likely return.   

Sorry, I mispoke!  Boston offered Tolle and Arias for Joe Ryan.  That was a fantastic haul.  Tolle would have easily replaced Ryan through 2030 at low cost.  Just the kind of trade that the Twins need to be making to extend players through a series of trades lasting many seasons.  Other teams do this all the time--its how small market teams can compete (look at Milwaukee, Tampa Bay, and other low budget teams). But Falvey chose instead to make insane trades at the deadline instead, like trading away Varland.  

I full agree...if Ryan is not accepting a deal for the next 3 years (and it will have to be at market rates for years 2-3), then trade him ASAP.  It might even be too late alreay, because you are never going to replicate that Tolle/Arias offer!  

But, Mike, I am just so sick and tired of this boneheaded front office!  They have been using "low budget" as an excuse for years when, in reality, they are making insanely bad moves.  The result is a f'ed up roster.

[old guy]

I spent 15 years in Denver watching the Rockies 'build for next year' and look where that has gotten them. You can't build a winning team by selling off your best players.  I'm a firm believer in the 'bird in the hand' philosophy.

[sweetmusicviola16]

9 hours ago, MeleMouth said:

The refusal to trade Jeffers and Ryan this year brought back memories of 2011, when a bad Twins team refused to trade Jason Kubel as he was heading into free agency and accepted instead a compensation draft pick,  which turned into Luke Bard. The caretaker GM, Bill Smith, was let go that fall, and 2011 began a run of four 90-loss seasons under Gardy, which, if memory serves, was the first time the same manager had four 90-loss seasons in a row with the same team.

At least it gave us plenty of opportunities to enjoy the scoreboard showing Gardy drinking a glass of milk.

RE whether to trade Ryan now - yes, absolutely. The current roster looks like another 70-80 win team and the organization needs talent after draining all but maybe two of its top prospects. We don't know how much Tom Pohlad plans to spend in free agency, but $50 million is highly unlikely to add 15 wins (and would just saddle future teams with declining, high-priced veterans) and there aren't that many good players available anyway. 

I agree, this isn't the FA class to spend big on. This was known July of 2025 when the rebuild started. Should have finished the rebuild right. Traded Ryan and Jeffers Lopez when the value was there to add pieces that would help us more in 2028 and beyond rather then trying to act like we were contenders in 2026. We shouldn't saddle the 28 and 29 teams with big contracts for mediocre players. Lets let the young core we have on hand grow in 27 and then we can add some missing pieces. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, old guy said:

I spent 15 years in Denver watching the Rockies 'build for next year' and look where that has gotten them. You can't build a winning team by selling off your best players.  I'm a firm believer in the 'bird in the hand' philosophy.

Like not trading Ryan for Tolle and Arias? The Brewers, Cleveland, and Tampa stay good because they trade for young players. Colorado had the worst FO in baseball for years. 

[Parfigliano]

3 hours ago, JADBP said:

I know....but there must be a good trade out there.  We should have jumped on that BOS trade offer last year,  They offered Payton Tolle and Arias for Ryan....an absolute crazy haul!  Tolle had a better year than Ryan, in just his first full season.  Tolle is a monster and we would have him through 2030!  Dammit!

Again, either resign Ryan now (this offseason) or trade him.  Don't repeat the Jeffers disaster.  

Clean out the FO.  They have proven themselves to be bad at their job.

[Mike Sixel]

16 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Clean out the FO.  They have proven themselves to be bad at their job.

They mostly have, but I'm guessing Falvey left because he wasn't allowed to sell..... Now there's a yes man, trading away the future for last year's team.... And now than a few others have left or been forced out. 

[tony&rodney]

Did we lose the topic?

Was it Joe Ryan, his projected salary for 2027, and whether any teams will want to discuss players with the Twins?

If that was the topic, I think there are teams interested in Joe Ryan despite it being only one year. One has to wonder if a West Coast team would stand a good shot at signing Ryan to an extension. I have zero idea about that but something tells me that Jow Ryan would prioritize location above a few extra millions. 

Seattle is a great city and the Mariners would be interested. San Francisco is near his home. What can they offer? A distant prospect from A ball? Even West Sacramento makes sense. What would they they be willing to return?

[chpettit19]

3 hours ago, old guy said:

I spent 15 years in Denver watching the Rockies 'build for next year' and look where that has gotten them. You can't build a winning team by selling off your best players.  I'm a firm believer in the 'bird in the hand' philosophy.

Totally get this argument, but don't think it fits with the Twins right now. I don't know how long you've spent watching the Twins, but they haven't been "building for next year" for 6 or 7 years. They've been "building for now" since 2019, at least. And they've failed. Pretty miserably. Joe Ryan is here for 1 more year that has very little possibility of being anything more than the last 3 years have been, between 70 and 80 wins. 

You can build a winning team by selling off your best players. It's actually how most teams not in the top 5-10 in payroll consistently build their teams. The White Sox are 1 game away from the ALCS with a team built by "selling off (their) best players." Tampa sells their best players constantly. Cleveland has traded Cy Young winners and MVP candidates. 

"Building for next year" can absolutely go poorly. There's no guarantee that you turn into the Astros and make a run at nearly a decade straight of ALCS appearances. But "the bird in the hand philosophy" leads you to 1 playoff appearance in 6 years just as often as "building for next year." Just look at the Twins.

They should've finished their rebuild and traded Ryan, Jeffers, and Lopez before this season. They didn't. And they'll be lucky to get 3 comp picks out of them while likely missing the post season this year and next. Being able to accurately assess your own team's skill level is vital. Knowing when to "build for next year" or hold your "birds in the hand" is what team building is all about. Tom Pohlad picked the birds in the hand. And it was wrong. And detrimental to the Minnesota Twins baseball team.

[chpettit19]

35 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Did we lose the topic?

Was it Joe Ryan, his projected salary for 2027, and whether any teams will want to discuss players with the Twins?

If that was the topic, I think there are teams interested in Joe Ryan despite it being only one year. One has to wonder if a West Coast team would stand a good shot at signing Ryan to an extension. I have zero idea about that but something tells me that Jow Ryan would prioritize location above a few extra millions. 

Seattle is a great city and the Mariners would be interested. San Francisco is near his home. What can they offer? A distant prospect from A ball? Even West Sacramento makes sense. What would they they be willing to return?

Why would Seattle be interested? With Joe's unquestionable 2nd half struggles, he wouldn't even be in their playoff rotation next year (or any future year) if they're anywhere near healthy. They just traded away Castillo in an attempt to get more offense because he had no place in their rotation anymore.

Gilbert, Woo, Kirby would be their 3 playoff starters even with Ryan in the rotation. Kade Anderson has a very real chance to be better than Joe next year. Bryce Miller and Emerson Hancock are about where Joe is on a full season basis. And Ryan Sloan could very well kick the door down at any sign of an opening in the rotation. Seattle is more likely to be looking to move starting pitching than be bringing it in.

I actually think the west coast is pretty limited in teams that would be looking to give up real value for 1 year of Joe Ryan. San Fran started their own rebuild and was looking to cut even more salary at the deadline. Anaheim has no need for any 1-year vets as they're one of the worst teams in baseball and need young talent. LA has a rotation full of guys better than Joe Ryan. Seattle has far more starting pitching than the Twins. San Diego may be the only west coast option as they continue to try to get over the hump to the WS.

[tony&rodney]

7 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Why would Seattle be interested? With Joe's unquestionable 2nd half struggles, he wouldn't even be in their playoff rotation next year (or any future year) if they're anywhere near healthy. They just traded away Castillo in an attempt to get more offense because he had no place in their rotation anymore.

Gilbert, Woo, Kirby would be their 3 playoff starters even with Ryan in the rotation. Kade Anderson has a very real chance to be better than Joe next year. Bryce Miller and Emerson Hancock are about where Joe is on a full season basis. And Ryan Sloan could very well kick the door down at any sign of an opening in the rotation. Seattle is more likely to be looking to move starting pitching than be bringing it in.

I actually think the west coast is pretty limited in teams that would be looking to give up real value for 1 year of Joe Ryan. San Fran started their own rebuild and was looking to cut even more salary at the deadline. Anaheim has no need for any 1-year vets as they're one of the worst teams in baseball and need young talent. LA has a rotation full of guys better than Joe Ryan. Seattle has far more starting pitching than the Twins. San Diego may be the only west coast option as they continue to try to get over the hump to the WS.

Just throwing things out. I'm not seeing any realistic moves that involve Ryan. I would like the Twins to keep him and move others.

[chpettit19]

11 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Just throwing things out. I'm not seeing any realistic moves that involve Ryan. I would like the Twins to keep him and move others.

I see a ton of realistic moves for Ryan, they just aren't the ones people are going to be happy about because his value has tanked and Twins fans are going to over value him because they see his shiny 1st half numbers and think he's an ace. He isn't. And the league knows it now. 

At this point in time its hard for me to have any strong feelings on whether or not I'd like to see them keep or move someone like Ryan. It depends what they're actually willing to invest and what other moves they're actually able to get done. Holding him and running back nearly the same team is of no interest to me. Moving real prospects is of no interest to me. So improving this MLB team is going to be heavily reliant on FA signings. And I have no faith they can make the kinds of splashes needed there to get this team solidly above .500. And, if thats the case, I don't want Ryan here just to watch 2026 play out all over again.

As I see it, their task is to make real improvements by bringing in outside talent without sacrificing future assets or to figure out when Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez will have their highest values and moving them for all they can.

There's a lot of teams that will be calling on Joe Ryan during the month of November. I don't think many will be offering deals people around here find satisfying. Tom picked his direction and it went about as poorly as possible. Ryan's arb number isn't the problem. Its his second half ERA over the course of his entire year combined with having only 1 year of control left.

[OregonTwinsFan]

3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Did we lose the topic?

Was it Joe Ryan, his projected salary for 2027, and whether any teams will want to discuss players with the Twins?

If that was the topic, I think there are teams interested in Joe Ryan despite it being only one year. One has to wonder if a West Coast team would stand a good shot at signing Ryan to an extension. I have zero idea about that but something tells me that Jow Ryan would prioritize location above a few extra millions. 

Seattle is a great city and the Mariners would be interested. San Francisco is near his home. What can they offer? A distant prospect from A ball? Even West Sacramento makes sense. What would they they be willing to return?

San Diego could use a starting pitcher, and they have 3 good catchers. They might be interested in trading one of them for Joe Ryan (Jeffers is most likely gone). Maybe Freddy Fermin for Ryan would work.

[Brandon]

On 10/5/2026 at 5:41 PM, darin617 said:

The Twins blew their chance to cash in on Jeffers and it sure doesn't seem like Ryan wants to stay either. So cash in before he goes into his second half of the season slump.

I don't live in Minnesota and am wondering why you think Ryan doesn't want to be here. 

[TheLeviathan]

19 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Just throwing things out. I'm not seeing any realistic moves that involve Ryan. I would like the Twins to keep him and move others.

Right but throwing out suggestions that lack context or insight isn't helpful.  I've seen several of your Lawler-based hypotheticals and those don't make any sense either.

Trades have to work for both teams and have logical reasons for being done.  

[tony&rodney]

2 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

Right but throwing out suggestions that lack context or insight isn't helpful.  I've seen several of your Lawler-based hypotheticals and those don't make any sense either.

Trades have to work for both teams and have logical reasons for being done.  

Seems to me that a ton of the articles and many comments do make suggestions and guesses of some sort or another. The other comments are all negative and complaining about everything from payroll to eye black to perceived efforts.

You may be correct about my Lawlar ideas. Arizona does need a LF, 1B, and DH. All teams need pitching. They have specifically published/stated a desire for a LH bat. Larnach and Roden fit that criteria. Lawlar has seen his services squeezed in Arizona. The Twins could use a RH bench bat who can run and play defense. In some ways Lawlar has lost favor similar to our guy, Royce Lewis.

FWIW, the list of trades that don't seem to make sense is quite lengthy. Maybe think of some ideas yourself and put them out there. I won't clap back.