Dean Kremer Has Pitched Better For Minnesota Than Baltimore—That Doesn’t Mean He’s Good

[LyleCole]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Lopez, Bradley, Ryan, Abel, Rojas, Ober, Prielipp, Matthews, Kremer

Injured.   #2.  #1.  Injured.  Injured.  Currently not much beyond a 4/5 and whose health has been suspect.  Probably should be in the bullpen and far from proven.  Another 4/5 guy.  Another 4/5 guy.  Add David Festa as another unproven and injured pitcher.  

If we had some sparkling starting pitching prospect, I would perhaps agree with you.   But, the best pitching prospects in the Twins system will almost certainly not be in the rotation next season.

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, LyleCole said:

 But, the best pitching prospects in the Twins system will almost certainly not be in the rotation next season.

Then they should have no conflicts scheduling golf and hunting trips in October.

[LyleCole]

2 hours ago, NYCTK said:

 

Once you consider the potential transactions that you can argue SHOULD be made, you're not left with a very deep rotation

Bradley 
Abel
Prielipp
Rojas
Matthews

...and Pablo as he regains health. I think extending Pablo might be the best course of action.  

Thanks for making my argument for me.   Even if you include the "trade candidates", they really do not have much depth and the value of Kremer is just to go out there every 5 days and give a mediocre performance because there simply isn't anyone there to replace him.  Maybe if Riley Quick was ready to be promoted to the Twins the calculus would be different, but he isn't at this time.  

Like I said, the downside risk of that is very minimal.  If he sucks, designate him for assignment and move on.  If he pitches well, then the team might be doing well, OR you might recoup your investment and more at or before the trade deadline to a team looking for rotation help.   

The Twins minor league system is not really stacked with available pitching.  Quick is (based om mlb.com) the #7 prospect.   Wachsmann, a 2026 HS draft pick is #12 (essentially replacing Dasan Hill).  Brett Renfrom, a 2026 college draft pick is 14.   Charlie Soto is #18, but he has only pitched 15 innings in the most recent 2 seasons.  The rest of the guys are outside the top 20:  some 2026 draft picks that have yet to make their pro debut, longtime prospect Marco Raya who looks like he has flamed out, 

[Linus]

I think he is a #5 starter, maybe a little better. Like Ober, his arb number is going to be high enough that there will be a decision to be made. I don’t think trading guys like this at a higher arb number will be that easy. It could be done but there isn’t really excess value so you are likely looking at a lottery ticket or two. Maybe TP will spend and bring both back. Either / both could be in the pen with the younger options at 4/5. 

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, NYCTK said:

That was his salary THIS year. He wasn't exactly great, but we should still expect to see him get a raise in arbitration. Spotrac estimates $9M, but even if it's something more like $7.5M, that's starting to get expensive for someone like him, and you can probably replace his production, which isn't nothing, for that cost. Meaning he's a non-tender candidate along with Bailey Ober. 

Lopez - Trade candidate once healthy
Ryan - Trade candidate
Bradley 
Abel
Prielipp
Rojas
Ober - NT candidate
Matthews
Kremer - NT candidate

Once you consider the potential transactions that you can argue SHOULD be made, you're not left with a very deep rotation

Bradley 
Abel
Prielipp
Rojas
Matthews

...and Pablo as he regains health. I think extending Pablo might be the best course of action.  

If they’re trading Ryan and/or Lopez, they’re likely to get pitching in return. 

[Danchat]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

 

Flash in the pan hot May in rookie ball without so much as a write up about him triggers Fangraphs to go nuts. Reyes may become a player worth noting someday. Not today.

Wasn't just Fangraphs, and every prospect "may become a player worth noting someday". Personally I don't have a problem trading a prospect like Reyes who is far away, I take issue with it when it's for a pitcher who isn't going to help us in the playoffs and some even argue is a rental. I think Reyes' prospect rating is a clue that they will tender Kremer's last arb year.

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Lopez, Bradley, Ryan, Abel, Rojas, Ober, Prielipp, Matthews, Kremer

They need to consider Lopez, Ryan, and Ober are free agents after next year.  Sure, pitchers get injured and the other guys will get a chance but they need to start managing the roster long-term.   Matthews was their best SP in August.  I would not leave him off the opening day roster.   Lopez is not bringing much in trade.  I would move Ryan if they can still get an impact player or Ober if the return is not high on Ryan. 

Lopez / Bradley / Abel / Matthews and either Ryan or Ober still leaves Prielipp and Rojas in MILB.  Kramer to long relief.  They can use him as a starter when needed.  They should also have Parades back for depth.  IDK what to expect from Festa.  One of Ryan or Ober needs to go and you could make a case for two of the three.  If they are to become a contender, they need to develop Matthews, Abel, Rojas, and Prielipp into playoff caliber SPs.

[Woof Bronzer]

2 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Fair enough but thats if Dean Kremer is a #5-#7 type guy.  In our starts so far I would argue he is a #4 and with some tweaks could be a #3.  Yes resources are finite, but we are also going into the season with what should be an extremely cheap roster.  You have rookies at shortstop and 1-2 outfield spots.   We are really only paying for Buxton, Caratini and Lewis.   I don't expect us to be spending a ton of money on the bullpen either.  So spending $7-$8 million for a solid pitcher seems reasonable,  especially when as a team you know you will be going through 7-8 pitchers a season.  Yes you may not expect him to start a playoff game.  Right now you have Lopez, Ryan and Bradley for that.   

That's fair and it sounds like maybe we differ on Kremer's ceiling.  And also $7-$8m isn't terribly unreasonable in a vacuum, for sure - especially if you view him as a #3-4.  Personally I think we're at a point where we are going to be better off with one $20m "star" contract vs several "reasonable" $7-$8m deals.  

[Woof Bronzer]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Starting multiple 4-7 starter types out of fear keeps you from even making the playoffs. 

To be clear I'm not starting multiple 4-7 starters out of fear...I'm doing it because the team has shown year after year that it takes that many starters to get through a 162 game season with all the injuries.  If I can get through the year with 5 starters I'm doing that, but I'm going into the season with a plan for when the inevitable injuries hit.  

Kind of like the Buxton situation - having a solid backup CF plan isn't about fear, it's just smart planning.  

 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

24 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

That's fair and it sounds like maybe we differ on Kremer's ceiling.  And also $7-$8m isn't terribly unreasonable in a vacuum, for sure - especially if you view him as a #3-4.  Personally I think we're at a point where we are going to be better off with one $20m "star" contract vs several "reasonable" $7-$8m deals.  

But don't we have 3 high end starting pitchers for next year Woof?  Ryan, Bradley and Lopez.  Are we going to drop Ober and Kremer to pay for a #2 pitcher that really doesn't fix our glut of pitching?   Thats effectively the concern.  We have to many quality pitchers to keep them in AAA.