San Diego Provides the Selling Blueprint for the Pohlads

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins have already been down this road once. The Pohlad family explored a sale of the franchise before ultimately deciding to maintain majority control and bring new limited partners into the ownership group. That decision didn't necessarily close the door on a future sale. It just meant the Twins would remain under Pohlad control for the time being.

Now, the San Diego Padres have provided an interesting case study in what an MLB franchise can become when ownership treats the baseball operation as an arena for investment, rather than simply a cost to manage and minimize. The Padres were recently approved for a change in controlling ownership at a staggering $3.9 billion valuation, setting a new MLB record. The deal, led by José E. Feliciano and Kwanza Jones, surpassed Steve Cohen's $2.4-billion purchase of the Mets in 2020.

That number is eye-catching, for plenty of reasons. San Diego has long been viewed as a small-market baseball operation. The Padres have dealt with television challenges, limited national attention and competition from the Dodgers in Southern California. Yet, the franchise became more valuable by building something people wanted to watch.

That part should sound familiar to the Twins. The Pohlads don't need to copy everything the Padres did. They don't need to hand out every massive contract imaginable. But if there is still a long-term plan to eventually sell the franchise after the next collective bargaining agreement is settled, there are several lessons worth stealing.

1. Invest in the Product Before You Sell the Product

This is the biggest lesson. The Padres didn't become a $3.9 billion franchise by simply waiting for the baseball market to appreciate their asset. They made the asset better. Manny Machado received a 10-year, $300-million contract. Xander Bogaerts signed an 11-year, $280-million deal. San Diego also acquired stars such as Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove. Those decisions came with enormous financial commitments, but they also created something ownership ultimately could sell: a winning baseball team. It's like redoing the roof or getting new windows before you sell a house; the increase in market price dwarfs what it costs to make the upgrades.

The Twins have taken a different path at various points, often trying to find the line between competitiveness and financial responsibility. That can work when everything goes right. It's not the best strategy for maximizing franchise value, though. The Padres demonstrated that aggressive investment can create a feedback loop. Better players produce better teams. Better teams create more meaningful games. Meaningful games create more fans. More fans create more revenue. And greater revenue can make the entire franchise more attractive to prospective buyers, as well as—back to the beginning of the cycle—permitting investments in better players.

The Pohlads need to think about the next several seasons through that lens—not simply, "How much does this player cost?" But "What might this player eventually make the franchise worth?"

2. Build a Team People Actually Want to Watch

San Diego has ranked among MLB's top five teams in attendance every year since 2021. The club is also on pace for another season of 3 million-plus fans. That's the kind of number prospective owners notice. The Twins need to create the same type of urgency around Target Field. That doesn't mean Minnesota needs to become a 95-win juggernaut. It means the franchise needs to become relevant enough that fans feel compelled to be there.

A roster built around Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis, Joe Ryan, emerging young players and a legitimate collection of stars could do that. A team that spends a significant portion of every summer fighting to stay around .500 will have a much harder time doing it. There's a difference between owning a baseball team and owning a destination. The Padres increasingly became the latter. The Twins should be trying to do the same. It'll be much harder in Minneapolis, where the Timberwolves, Vikings and Lynx compete directly for fans' entertainment dollars and the Wild and Loons offer less direct and proximate but real alternatives. The Padres have the luxury of aloneness. The Twins will have to find some way to achieve the same primacy, from much less powerful a position.

3. Turn Winning Into Revenue

This is where the Padres' blueprint gets especially interesting. San Diego's business reportedly grew dramatically over the last several years, with sponsorship revenue and the number of corporate partners both increasing substantially. The Padres' executives pointed to a simple principle: the product on the field has a major impact on revenue.

That should matter enormously to the Twins. A packed Target Field is more valuable than an empty Target Field. A strong sponsorship portfolio is built around a comeplling product. A franchise with a passionate regional following is more attractive to buyers than one whose fan base has become listless.

This is where the Pohlads can create value even before another owner ever walks into the room. Put more people in the seats. Sell more premium experiences. Grow corporate partnerships. Make Target Field a place companies want to associate with. Create a baseball operation that people want to spend money around. The better the business performs, the easier it becomes for a prospective buyer to justify a higher price.

4. Stop Treating Payroll as the Finish Line

The Padres didn't spend money simply to say they had a high payroll. They spent money to create a competitive roster. That distinction matters. Tom Pohlad has already said the Twins need to invest more if they want to become a consistently competitive playoff team. After the 2026 trade deadline, he went even further, saying the team's 2027 payroll "will be higher."

That's a good start. But the next step is making sure that money is being converted into wins. A buyer isn't going to pay a premium because the Twins once had a higher payroll. That comes, instead, when a team has demonstrated that its revenue, fan base, player development and baseball operations are capable of sustaining success. The Padres' spending worked because it became part of a larger transformation. The Twins need the same thing.

5. Build Organizational Stability

There's another Padres lesson hiding underneath all the big contracts. The franchise developed a recognizable baseball identity. A.J. Preller built an aggressive front office. Peter Seidler backed him. The organization developed into a destination for major players and continued investing even after previous disappointments.

When the ownership transition was approved this month, Preller and CEO Erik Greupner were still in place to lead the organization. That continuity matters. Potential buyers aren't just purchasing 26 players and a ballpark. They're purchasing an organization.

The Twins need to demonstrate that the front office knows what it is doing, that player development is producing major-league talent, that the coaching infrastructure works and that ownership is willing to provide the resources necessary to sustain it. There should be a clear answer to the question: What exactly are the Twins? A franchise preparing for a sale should not be searching for that answer at the same time.

6. Make the Next CBA Work for the Twins

Timing could be especially important. MLB has already proposed a new collective bargaining agreement that would include a salary cap and salary floor, with the league's initial proposal calling for a $245.3 million cap and a $171.2 million floor in 2027. The current CBA is set to expire December 1, 2026.

Whether a cap and floor ever become reality is impossible to know. But a new CBA will almost certainly change the financial landscape of baseball in some way. That creates an opportunity for the Pohlads. If the family truly believes the Twins could eventually be sold, it would make sense to maximize the franchise's position before that sale process begins.

7. Create a Franchise That Looks Bigger Than Its Market

Perhaps the most important part of the Padres story is that San Diego never stopped being San Diego. The Padres were still dealing with the limitations of their local television market. They were still sharing a region with the Dodgers and Angels. They didn't magically become Los Angeles or New York.

Instead, they made the franchise bigger than some of those limitations. That's the lesson for Minnesota. The Twins don't need to convince anyone that Minneapolis-St. Paul is Los Angeles. They need to make the Twins themselves more valuable. That means national relevance and recognizable stars. It means postseason appearances. It means a fan base that believes ownership is serious about winning. And it means creating enough revenue that a prospective owner sees opportunities, rather than limitations.

The Pohlads Have a Blueprint

None of this guarantees the Twins could approach a $3.9 billion valuation. The Padres' sale came during a period when MLB franchise values have surged, and scarcity alone makes owning one of the league's 30 clubs extraordinarily valuable. San Diego's record also reflects broader trends in professional sports, not just what happened on the field.

But that's precisely why the Padres' example matters. The Pohlads don't control the market for MLB franchises. They do control what the Twins look like when somebody eventually comes shopping. The family has already changed course once, moving away from a full sale and bringing in new limited partners while retaining majority control. They did so because they hadn't staged the team well enough to sell it at a palatable price.

The Padres didn't simply sell a baseball team. They sold the result of years spent making that baseball team matter more. The Twins have time to do the same thing.

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Can Minnesota follow San Diego’s blueprint? What area will be most challenging for the Pohlads? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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[tony&rodney]

Interesting that you see building around players who would/ may not be around when the team potentially reaches the levels you see as possible. 

[MeleMouth]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Interesting that you see building around players who would/ may not be around when the team potentially reaches the levels you see as possible. 

Yeah, that struck me as well. These two sentences seem to contradict each other, as well as 2/3 being based on pie in the sky. I mean, sure, if you have Buxton, Lewis, and Ryan, and you go out and get "legitimate stars" like Skubal as a free agent and Nick Kurtz in a trade, they could be a good team, but they could also be a good team without Buxton, Lewis, and Ryan, if they sign Skubal and trade for Kurtz. Or, of course, they could keep their aging core of 1-3.5 WAR "stars" and go out and get "legitimate stars like Josh Donaldson and Carlos Correa while also featuring "emerging young players" like Miranda, Julien, and Wallner. 

"A roster built around Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis, Joe Ryan, emerging young players and a legitimate collection of stars could do that. A team that spends a significant portion of every summer fighting to stay around .500 will have a much harder time doing it. "

The Twins need to pick one strategy and stay with it. As long as they keep vacillating, perhaps more than once a year, and sometimes running out two strategies at once like "competitive rebuild," which sounds really good but has never worked for them, they will "spend a significant portion of every summer fighting to stay around .500."

[jkcarew]

The article is a worthy premise. But it falls flat on it’s face suggesting a 33 year old Buxton, likely to move to a corner outfield spot and probably lower in the batting order going forward (when even available) and Joe Ryan, who is gone (unless his health/effectiveness has become seriously compromised) after ‘27, are the building blocks. Buxton has almost never maintained both health and effectiveness through a whole season…and the track record has been even worse trying to drag the good version of him into a postseason. But, we should put all our eggs in that basket in his 13th, age 33, season, and beyond? Definition of insanity. How many years of 80+ games in the outfield by the likes of Kriedler/Roden/Martin, Willi Castro/Martin, Michael Taylor, Gilberto Celestino, Jake Cave…all because Buxton breaks down…do we need before we learn a lesson?

They seem much more in a transitional, if not rebuild, scenario if they do things right, IMO. They are looking to see who emerges as the next building blocks. Bradley? Abel? Keaschall? Culpepper? Jenkins? Lewis? Lee? etc. Buxton shouldn’t be considered anything more than a nice piece to have…when you have him.

[TheLeviathan]

The day the Twins sign someone to a Machado contract is the day I sprout wings.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, TheLeviathan said:

The day the Twins sign someone to a Machado contract is the day I sprout wings.

A lot of Twins fans will be right there in heaven with you.

[TopGunn#22]

It isn't just the contract, it's who the Twins have decided to throw their money at.  Carlos Correa's contract wasn't for as long as Machado's but the average annual value was very similar.  The Padres invested in Machado, a MUCH better, less risky investment than Correa. 

Correa had HUGE health issues prior to the signing with the Twins.  Both the Giants and Mets backed off.  The Twins got some decent run out of Correa, but he was consistently hurt, leading to the deal with the Astros where we basically paid them to take him off our roster.  Donaldson's health was also sketchy, leading to him ultimately being a poor investment (in retrospect) as well. 

It's good to hear that payroll will be more next season.  It almost has to be.  WHO they decide to spend this extra money on will be the key.  Correa was never a "smart" investment.  The future is Jenkins, Keaschall, Lee, Bradley, Abel, Prielipp, Matthews, Lackey and Marek Houston.  It has the potential to be a pretty good team with the right veterans embedded with them.

I have no idea how much the Pohlad family can actually get for the Twins, but I do know that it's well past time for them to sell.  They have lost the fan base.  And it doesn't seem to matter whether it's Falvey, Zoll or whoever running the team.  It just seems to me new ownership needs to bring some new people into the FO with a new perspective.  I'd be looking at Brewers employees who are ready to take the next, big step in responsibility.  

[Original_JB]

I wonder what 6 months of "San Diego" weather would cost? This is not a "dome" rant, but let's face facts, sitting in the 'best' seats still ain't fun when it's blustery and/or sleeting and in the mid 30's (or when it's 90+ degrees, soupy, and you can taste the smoke in the air).

[Vanimal46]

The reason this blueprint worked out for the Padres is they had a billionaire owner that treated the organization as entertainment, not a business. He didn't care about losing money or bad investments. They took massive swings that worked out (Machado, Snell, Tatis Jr) and massive swings that didn't work out (Matt Kemp, Eric Hosmer, Boegarts) - all of that builds trust in the fanbase and willingness to invest in attending the games. 

 

[bean5302]

2 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

The reason this blueprint worked out for the Padres is they had a billionaire owner that treated the organization as entertainment, not a business. He didn't care about losing money or bad investments. They took massive swings that worked out (Machado, Snell, Tatis Jr) and massive swings that didn't work out (Matt Kemp, Eric Hosmer, Boegarts) - all of that builds trust in the fanbase and willingness to invest in attending the games. 

 

A dying billionaire owner. Just like Illitch with the Tigers back in the early 2010s when he pushed the Tigers' payroll to $200MM.

The Padres were a financial mess and MLB had to step in to force the team to reduce it's payroll in order to meet solvency standards.

So if the solution is to potentially bankrupt themselves in order to push payroll as part of a reckless pursuit of a World Series run before they face imminent death, I think that's probably not a good sales pitch to the Pohlads right now.

Though the Padres approach does support the spend money to make money philosophy, and commitment to the expenditures as a way to get fans on board. If the Twins had maintained the $150MM salary range for 2024, 2025 and 2026, I doubt fans would be so apathetic to the team. 

[Vanimal46]

1 minute ago, bean5302 said:

Though the Padres approach does support the spend money to make money philosophy, and commitment to the expenditures as a way to get fans on board. If the Twins had maintained the $150MM salary range for 2024, 2025 and 2026, I doubt fans would be so apathetic to the team. 

100%. The Pohlads were too short sighted because their other business ventures declined at a rapid rate. All they had to do was stay the course and build upon their first playoff series win in 20 years. But they unfortunately took the exact opposite path and destroyed fan morale in the process. 

[LastOnePicked]

I've given up on the idea that there's a "plan" in place to increase the value of this team. Tom Pohlad clearly wanted to change the "talk" surrounding the team but not the actions. This is still a low-payroll organization, still very risk-averse and still suppressing the service time of top prospects.

A sub-.500 team that's out of the WC hunt by Labor Day is not going to bring fans back, nor will it increase revenue, especially with a huge work stoppage looming. If anything, Tom has already fallen into the trap of overpromising and underdelivering. Almost nothing turns off customers more than that.

[NYCTK]

56 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

A dying billionaire owner. Just like Illitch with the Tigers back in the early 2010s when he pushed the Tigers' payroll to $200MM.

Goes to show, the only good billionaire is...well...you know. 

 

57 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

The Padres were a financial mess and MLB had to step in to force the team to reduce it's payroll in order to meet solvency standards.

Oh no, the multibillion dollar organization had to take a bridge loan before selling their asset for a 3 billion dollar windfall. What a terrible fate. 

 

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

If the Twins had maintained the $150MM salary range for 2024, 2025 and 2026, I doubt fans would be so apathetic to the team. 

Correct. The Twins didn't sell for what the Pohalds hoped because they're cheap nepobaby failsons and terrible business people. 

[umterp23]

Investments in the team need to be done but as others say, building around Buxton to start with is fools gold. He plays out his current deal and then resign him doesn’t mean break the bank. Spend money, but do we trust that they will spend it wisely? Doubt it. Bell for most part okay, Caratini for 2 years not so much. Gallo, don’t need to explain or comment. 
 

Salary floor, cap doesn’t mean anything to me as it still comes down to execution of the spend and this organization hasn’t been good at it at all. They can say we will be buyers, invest, etc but comes down to an organization that can execute. Jury is out

[Woof Bronzer]

11 hours ago, bean5302 said:

So if the solution is to potentially bankrupt themselves in order to push payroll as part of a reckless pursuit of a World Series run before they face imminent death, I think that's probably not a good sales pitch to the Pohlads right now.

Seidler bought the Padres in 2012 for $600m and sold in 2026 for $3.9 billion.  I wouldn't call a $3.3 billion gain over 14 years - an average increase of $235m/yr - bankrupting themselves.

That's the sales pitch to the Pohlads.  $3,3 billion over 14 years, in a smaller market.  And you don't even need to win a WS.  The Pads made the playoffs just 4 times over that span, with one measly NLCS appearance to show for it.  You just have to show fans that you are trying.    

[RpR]

Well 7 of San Diego's starters are 30 or older so maybe older is better.

[Vanimal46]

7 minutes ago, RpR said:

Well 7 of San Diego's starters are 30 or older so maybe older is better.

Yet the top WAR players are 27 year old Tatis Jr and 23 year old Jackson Merrill on fangraphs 

[LA Vikes Fan]

What the Padres example shows us is that you have to take risk to get reward. The Pads took risk and sometimes got burned. They shook it off and kept trying. That's what you have to do; keep trying. Act like you care if the team wins or loses. Fans will reward effort. They'll will get in the trenches with an owner who lives and dies with the team and really cares. They won't reward bottom line watching hand wringing like Joe P. did. 

Best comment made many times here is the way we learned how much this team cares is when they went from a $150m payroll, winning a playoff series, to a 30M drop in payroll. Nothing says I don't care better than following up success by turning to the accountants for advice. Is Tom Better? We'll see. He's starting from behind. The best thing he can do is show that he cares. I will say that the day the former players were handing out $20 bills to fans in the OF to pay food and beer on their own volition and Tom P. showed up with what - MORE 20s TO HAND OUT  - gave me some hope. Maybe he does get it. We'll see.     

[Riverbrian]

7 hours ago, RpR said:

Well 7 of San Diego's starters are 30 or older so maybe older is better.

The Padres are pretty experienced. The current 26 man roster has only 10 players who are under 3 years experience. They started the season with 10 players under 3 years experience. 

5 of those 10 reside in the bullpen (Miller, Bradgely, Estrada, Matsui and Hart).  1 in the rotation (Vazquez), 2 offensive starters (Merrill and Fermin) and 2 offensive players who don't play (Bowen and Harris) 

Is it better?

Offensively the Padres rank 23rd in team OPS. 21st in Runs Scored. 

On the mound... The Starters rank 23rd in ERA. The Bullpen ranks 5th. 

The Padres have 7 more wins than the Twins do over 132 games.