How Much Have Injuries Really Hurt the Twins in 2026?

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

Injuries are one of the few parts of a baseball season that teams simply cannot control. Every fan base can point to the players who have spent time on the injured list and wonder how different the season might look if everyone had stayed healthy (cough… Pablo Lopez). For teams that haven't lived up to expectations, injuries can become an easy explanation for what went wrong.

But are some teams actually dealing with significantly more injury-related losses than others? FanGraphs’ Dan Szymborski recently took a closer look at that question, examining how much potential WAR each team has lost because of injuries during the 2026 season. The answer provides some interesting context for the Minnesota Twins.

An Aggregate Table of Sadness

Szymborski began with the overall injury picture across baseball.

“As I write this, there have been 690 independent IL stints so far in 2026, with 11 players hitting the IL on three separate occasions,” Szymborski wrote.

To estimate the impact of those injuries, he had ZiPS rerun projections for each player at the time of his injury. From there, he estimated how much potential WAR was lost because the player was unavailable.

Szymborski acknowledged that the exercise isn't perfect. Day-to-day injuries can be difficult to quantify, particularly when they aren't reported in detail. However, those injuries generally aren't significant enough to result in an IL stint. The result was what Szymborski jokingly called an “aggregate table of sadness.”

And the Twins aren't at the top of it, nor even close. Minnesota has lost an estimated 7.1 potential WAR to injuries, which ranks 17th in baseball. That number is notable because several teams ahead of Minnesota are either competing for postseason spots or entered the season with legitimate championship aspirations.

The Red Sox, Braves, Astros, Dodgers, Cubs and Brewers are among the teams that have lost more potential WAR to injuries. That doesn't necessarily mean those clubs have been unlucky in every sense. Some teams have larger payrolls and more established players, which naturally gives them more opportunities to lose projected WAR when someone gets hurt.

The Dodgers are perhaps the most obvious example. Los Angeles has routinely embraced players with significant injury histories, betting that the organization's depth and resources can help overcome those absences when October arrives. It's a strategy that looks considerably different when viewed through the lens of injury data.

How Minnesota Compares to the AL Central

Within the American League Central, Minnesota falls somewhere in the middle of the pack. The Tigers have lost an estimated 10.0 WAR, while the White Sox sit at 7.5 WAR. The Twins' 7.1 WAR follows those two teams. Kansas City has lost 6.5 WAR, while Cleveland has lost only 2.2 WAR. In fact, the Guardians are tied with Philadelphia for the second-lowest projected WAR lost to injury.

That doesn't mean Cleveland has avoided injuries entirely. It simply means the projected value of the players lost hasn't been as significant as it has been elsewhere. Losing a replacement-level player for a month isn't the same as losing an established star. The number of injuries alone doesn't tell the entire story. That's why Szymborski's methodology is useful in putting those absences into a more meaningful context.

The Twins Could Still Lose More

There's another part of Szymborski's analysis that should matter to Twins fans. He also looked at the projected WAR that teams could still lose to injuries for the remainder of the 2026 season. Minnesota has 2.4 potential WAR remaining on that list, which ranks 10th in baseball.

That's the second-highest total in the AL Central. Detroit is projected to have another 3.8 WAR potentially lost to injury, while Chicago sits at 2.0 WAR. Kansas City is at 1.7 WAR, and Cleveland is at just 0.4 WAR.  Again, these aren't predictions that specific players will get hurt. They're estimates of the potential value currently associated with players who will miss time. 

Currently, the Twins have six players on the 60-day IL including Lopez, Anthony Banda, David Festa, Mike Paredes, Mick Abel, and Cole Sands. None of those players are expected back this season. That impacts every game moving forward for Minnesota.  

Sometimes, It's Just Out of Your Hands

Baseball teams can control a lot. They can control how they prepare players. They can control roster construction. They can control how they deploy their pitching staff. They can make trades and call up prospects.

They can't control whether a player pulls a muscle running to first base. They can't control whether a pitcher feels something in his arm. And they certainly can't control how many injuries happen across the league.

That's what makes Szymborski's numbers particularly interesting for the Twins. They have dealt with injuries this season, but their 7.1 potential WAR lost doesn't place them in some uniquely unfortunate category. Other contenders have dealt with even larger losses, and several teams around the division have experienced similar or greater problems.

The Twins' fate over the final weeks will ultimately be determined by much more than their injury total. They still have to play the games, execute on the field and take advantage of the opportunities in front of them. But sometimes a team's fate is partially decided before it ever gets that far.

Injuries don't care about standings, payrolls or postseason expectations. And unfortunately for every team in baseball, there's no strategy that can completely prevent them.

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Does it feel like the Twins should be higher? How will injuries impact the team the rest of the season? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[Coach Wheels]

Injuries have always been part of a teams success  or lack k if success. Great/Good teams have depth with respect to talent and that is a shortcomings for our Twins. The pitching staff and the OF have had key injuries this year and the guys we've rolled out when injuries have happened to those 2 groups, we've struggled.

[Peter]

Twins at full health are the best team In MLB 

[Patzky]

They say misery 

Loves company..

[Whitey333]

The Twins have been very resilient this year.  They have out played their predictions in a gutsy way.  Here it where the the story lacks credibility.  Its from Fangraphs.  One of the least respected outfits out there.  Its all conjecture with Fangraphs.  They do a good job of twisting analytics to support their claims.  Imagine that:  The Twins are the only team that has had to real with injuries.  Oh whoa is me.  I think they have done well considering their injuries.   Go Twins.

[tony&rodney]

The Twins go to Sacramento tonight. The A's are missing Langeliers-C, Kurtz-1B, Wilson-SS, Soderstrom-LF, Clarke-CF, and Rooker-DH. They also have six pitchers on the IL.

The Twins have been relatively healthy in 2026. Yes, the Twins miss Pablo Lopez but few teams in baseball have been as lucky with health as the Twins.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Whitey333 said:

The Twins have been very resilient this year.  They have out played their predictions in a gutsy way.  Here it where the the story lacks credibility.  Its from Fangraphs.  One of the least respected outfits out there.  Its all conjecture with Fangraphs.  They do a good job of twisting analytics to support their claims.  Imagine that:  The Twins are the only team that has had to real with injuries.  Oh whoa is me.  I think they have done well considering their injuries.   Go Twins.

Hahaha. They literally get guys hired from them to teams, teams pay Szym for his work, they have former scouts on their payroll. You literally couldn't be wrong if you tried. 

[old nurse]

How about including the negative WAR of the replacements?

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, old nurse said:

How about including the negative WAR of the replacements?

There are so many variables here, I think it is a hard exercise. I think you are on to something. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

2 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

The Twins have been very resilient this year.  They have out played their predictions in a gutsy way.  Here it where the the story lacks credibility.  It’s from Fangraphs.  One of the least respected outfits out there.  It’s all conjecture with Fangraphs.  They do a good job of twisting analytics to support their claims.  Imagine that:  The Twins are the only team that has had to real with injuries.  Oh woe is me.  I think they have done well considering their injuries.   Go Twins.

Preseason projections from Fangraphs were 78 wins. They are currently on pace for 79. Just because you don’t like Fangraphs doesn’t mean it’s not widely respected by other baseball fans.

[killercarewoliva]

2 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

The Twins have been very resilient this year.  They have out played their predictions in a gutsy way.  Here it where the the story lacks credibility.  Its from Fangraphs.  One of the least respected outfits out there.  Its all conjecture with Fangraphs.  They do a good job of twisting analytics to support their claims.  Imagine that:  The Twins are the only team that has had to real with injuries.  Oh whoa is me.  I think they have done well considering their injuries.   Go Twins.

what it is to me currently we have two viable starters that can be dependent on most of the time and that's Bradley and Kremer. we have a lot of dependable starters who can't play right now and the loss of Rojas is a disaster. there is Jack Anderson who I think can do the job of given the chance. he was pitching very well when he was demoted. if the playoffs are made and you get past the first two out of three, you have got to have three good starters that are dependable. well we definitely have them. they're just on the IL. I really loved watching Abel. pitching is a unnatural thing for your arm to be doing to begin with. so here's a sport that knows this. he had determines you need at least twice the amount of starters you had when the season started knowing the arms are going to falter. The team has a nice ops and now our relief fishing is well elevated from the beginning of the year but the starters I'm just not seeing the twins make the playoffs anymore because of the starters currently.

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, Peter said:

Twins at full health are the best team In MLB 

❤️😉!!!

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins go to Sacramento tonight. The A's are missing Langeliers-C, Kurtz-1B, Wilson-SS, Soderstrom-LF, Clarke-CF, and Rooker-DH. They also have six pitchers on the IL.

The Twins have been relatively healthy in 2026. Yes, the Twins miss Pablo Lopez but few teams in baseball have been as lucky with health as the Twins.

Lopez or Abel or Festa or Sands …….any ONE of these guys healthy & pitching to their capabilities helps Team Win 4+ more games to date………that’s 67-63………always a way to twist events into positive imaginary results!

If they can get one this afternoon it sure would help the mental outlook! They can still get 3 of 6 on this Trip…….then “the rubber meets the road” as they play FIFTEEN straight Divisional games.

[Road trip]

The numbers seem a bit low, and might be for every team.  7.1 WAR for the Twins?  A healthy Lopez is worth 3 or more all by himself.  Add in significant missed time from Buxton, Jeffers, Ryan, Abel, Festa, Banda, Sands, etc...   I don't know, it seems like more than 7.1

I do agree though, relative to some other teams the Twins have been lucky.  Compared to 20 years ago the injury lists have become very long for every franchise.

[Mike Sixel]

I did a lot of math earlier this year, and you'd be surprised how little most pitchers, other than truly elite starters, matter. 

Lopez is likely worth three wins, over the full year, over his replacement. Remember, though, Abel is his replacement, so you can't count those wins twice. 

Festa, Banda, and Sands combined just aren't worth much more over a full season than other RP. Their in game samples are tiny and go both positive and negative.