3 Questions Facing Key Twins Players in Season's Final Weeks

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins still have plenty of baseball left to play. The final weeks of the season will provide an important opportunity to evaluate several players already on the roster. While the organization will eventually have to make decisions about its offseason plans, those decisions should be influenced by what happens on the field down the stretch.

For some players, the remaining games are about establishing consistency. For others, it's an opportunity to show the Twins they can handle a different role or position. Every at-bat and inning provides another piece of information for the organization to consider.

There's no shortage of questions surrounding the roster, but three players in particular have plenty to prove during the final weeks of the season.

Zebby Matthews: Starter or Reliever?

The Twins need to figure out where Matthews fits into their pitching plans. Matthews has already shown flashes that he can be a useful major-league pitcher, but Minnesota may not have enough starting pitching depth to simply pencil him into the rotation and assume everything will work itself out. Pablo López, Mick Abel, and David Festa are all working their way back from injuries. Even if all three are healthy when spring training begins, the Twins will have plenty of uncertainty behind them.

That could make Matthews an interesting candidate to follow the Andrew Morris path. Morris began his professional career as a starter before eventually transitioning into a bullpen role. That move has allowed him to become a valuable part of Minnesota's pitching staff, and Matthews could follow a similar trajectory.

The Twins shouldn't rush to make that decision, though. Matthews has enough starting experience that he should get every opportunity to compete for a rotation spot. At the same time, Minnesota needs to determine whether his stuff could play up in shorter outings. If the Twins believe Matthews can become a legitimate weapon out of the bullpen, that could be a valuable role for a team that has needed more depth in the pitching staff.

The question: Is Matthews a future member of the starting rotation, or could he become a more valuable weapon coming out of the bullpen?

Royce Lewis: Back in the Long-Term Plans?

It wasn't long ago that Lewis's future with the Twins seemed considerably less certain. Minnesota sent Lewis to Triple-A earlier this season, creating plenty of questions about whether he would eventually regain his place as a cornerstone of the organization. Since then, however, something has changed.

Lewis has transitioned into playing first base regularly, and his offensive production has taken a significant step forward. In 61 games since returning, he has an .822 OPS with 10 homers and 17 doubles. The change in position may have helped simplify things for him, while his bat has started looking much more like the one the Twins envisioned when they made him the No. 1 overall pick.

That matters, because Lewis is still under team control for two more seasons. The Twins don't have to make a decision on his long-term future this winter. But they do need to determine whether Lewis is part of the next good version of this team.

His recent performance could make that decision considerably easier. If Lewis can continue producing offensively and establish himself at first base, the Twins may have found a path that keeps him in the middle of their plans. His injury history and inconsistency remain legitimate concerns, but the organization has already invested heavily in his development. There is still time for Lewis to change the narrative.

The question: Has Lewis done enough over the second half of the season to earn another opportunity to be part of Minnesota's long-term plans?

Luke Keaschall: Are the Improvements for Real?

Keaschall's season started about as poorly as anyone could have imagined. The offensive numbers were ugly, and it looked like the young infielder was having trouble adjusting to major-league pitching. At the end of April, he had a .542 OPS with 21 strikeouts in 31 games.

Since then, however, Keaschall has worked to pull those numbers back toward respectable territory. In 87 games since May 1, he is slashing .294/.401/.422 (.823) with 22 extra-base hits. Minnesota has even started using him back at the top of the lineup because of his strong on-base skills. 

That doesn't mean every concern has disappeared. His defense in the outfield has been questionable at times, which is understandable considering the circumstances. Keaschall isn't a player who spent his minor-league career exclusively roaming the outfield.

In fact, the Twins have essentially been moving him around on the fly. Keaschall played only 20 minor-league games in the outfield before reaching the majors. Asking him to learn a new position while simultaneously trying to adjust to big-league pitching was never going to be an easy assignment.

That makes it difficult to determine exactly what Minnesota has in Keaschall right now. The offensive improvement is encouraging. But the Twins need to know whether it represents a genuine adjustment or simply a player going through a better stretch.

There is still plenty of time for Keaschall to answer that question. If the bat continues trending upward, the Twins can afford to be more patient with the defensive development. But if the offensive struggles return, the organization will have to determine whether moving him back toward the infield is the better solution.

The question: Are Keaschall's recent offensive improvements the beginning of a sustainable adjustment, or just a temporary hot streak?

Three Players, Three Very Different Decisions

The Twins don't necessarily need definitive answers on all three players before the season ends. They do, however, need more information.

Matthews could help determine how Minnesota builds its pitching staff. Lewis could show the organization that he still belongs in the middle of its long-term plans. Keaschall could provide evidence that his difficult start was simply part of the learning curve.

All three players have something to prove. And all three could have very different roles when the Twins return to Target Field next season.

---

How would you answer the questions listed above? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

View full article

[offensive_loons_fan]

For what it's worth, all three of these examples come grounded in the "we just move people around positions" philosophy of the organization. Starters become relievers, infielders become outfielders, dogs and cats living together, mass hysteria.

[Patzky]

11 minutes ago, offensive_loons_fan said:

For what it's worth, all three of these examples come grounded in the "we just move people around positions" philosophy of the organization. Starters become relievers, infielders become outfielders, dogs and cats living together, mass hysteria.

There also the Depending On variable, especially for Keaschall (depending on OF depth, Houston sliding Culpeper over, and even re-signing Josh Bell) and Zebby (depending on the health of other starters more than relief depth, especially Lopez and Abel, and also the usage plan for Rojas and possibly Festa.) Royce will be here but the long term plans depend on Scott Boras. 

[mark allen]

Not sure if Shelton hasn't made perfect moves. Lee at third looks perfect. Royce first again looks great. Keash started hitting to form right after changing to outfield, Morris to bullpen looks great, even though I can't help wondering what would of happened if he was a starter.

[DJL44]

This offseason is the sweet spot for a Royce Lewis contract extension. His overall numbers will depress his arbitration award. Next offseason will be too late, he will go to free agency.

I don’t see him getting more than $16M in arbitration for the next two seasons. Would he go for a guaranteed 4 years and $48M?

[Road trip]

1. Starter. Need 10 because 5 will be hurt at any given time.

2. yes, but "long-term" for Lewis likely may mean "until he becomes a free agent in '29".  

3. I sure hope Keaschall's glove improves somewhere.

[mikelink45]

I would add some more questions

1. Can Caratini actually replace Jeffers after this season?  He has thrown out 7 of 20 base stealers
2. Is Jackson now the number two catcher for next year or number one?
3. Are we going to drop Bell like we did France, Santana and other 1b/DH signings in the past?
4. Is the narrative for Larnach going to be trade him again?  Does his poor second half change things?
5. Is Buxton done in CF?  Can he get his batting eye back?
6. Does Ober have enough savvy to stay in the rotation next year?
7. Can we really count on Lopez?  How many games has he pitched since he signed his contract?
8. Is Gomez real or a fluke?
9. Why do I keep reading about Festa as though he and Abel are ready to be better SP than Matthews?
10. What will the team do with Wallner, Fedko, Gonzales and our OF logjam?
11. How much more leash does Roden have?

[MMBoys93]

Zebby- why does it have to be one or the other? He can move to the pen next year and potentially move back to the rotation in the future. I think pen makes a lot of sense for next years plans with the potential of moving back to the rotation. It’s being done more often in the league nowadays and he has the stuff to make it happen.

Royce- yeah I think in a way he’s back, but his whiff struggles and his in zone whiff struggles will mean that he’ll likely never be an elite hitter, so he’s really going to have to find somewhere defensively where he can be at least a league average presence defensively. 
 

Luke- I think it’s mostly legit with the bat. He’s really incredible about swinging at his pitch and laying off stuff outside the zone and pitchers pitches. MLB defenses will learn to play him tighter but remember he’s still coming off TJ and multiple hand injuries. I think he can find a little more bat speed which should help him adjust to the adjustments that’ll come next year. His impact is highly dependent on his ability not to play terrible defense though.
 

it’s shocking to me how many bad plays he makes. Not because he’s lacking athleticism but just baseball smarts, but he did go to ASU…

[tony&rodney]

"All three players have something to prove. And all three could have very different roles when the Twins return to Target Field next season."

All three could be parts of blockbuster transactions this coming offseason too.  The future is wide open.

The Twins front office will have some decisions to make about a number of players and their ideas will result in the roster chosen to begin 2027. Will they gamble or play it back again?

[DJL44]

26 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I would add some more questions

1. Can Caratini actually replace Jeffers after this season?  He has thrown out 7 of 20 base stealers

In 60 games. I don’t think he will catch more than 90 games, which would mean 10 caught stealing and 20 SB allowed. That is actually pretty impressive control of the running game.

[GNess]

The Twins need to develop a few all-star caliber players for which to build around. (Oliva, Killebrew, Puckett, Gaetti, Hrbek, Hunter Mauer, Morneau, Santana, Radke,  Blyleven, Viola etc.) Buxton had he been able to play more games would be on this list.

Not sure if any of these three reach that level although Lewis provided some hope in the past that he might climb to that status.

[HarmonK03]

33 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

In 60 games. I don’t think he will catch more than 90 games, which would mean 10 caught stealing and 20 SB allowed. That is actually pretty impressive control of the running game.

He had a stretch between May 28 and August 6 where he only threw out 1 of 27 stolen base attempts.  Which stretch will it be.  I don't think Caratini is a #1 or main catcher however you want to classify it.  He is a good backup for 60 to 70 games.  That is something that I think needs to be addressed but probably won't be.

[MikeNC]

50 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I would add some more questions

1. Can Caratini actually replace Jeffers after this season?  He has thrown out 7 of 20 base stealers
2. Is Jackson now the number two catcher for next year or number one?
3. Are we going to drop Bell like we did France, Santana and other 1b/DH signings in the past?
4. Is the narrative for Larnach going to be trade him again?  Does his poor second half change things?
5. Is Buxton done in CF?  Can he get his batting eye back?
6. Does Ober have enough savvy to stay in the rotation next year?
7. Can we really count on Lopez?  How many games has he pitched since he signed his contract?
8. Is Gomez real or a fluke?
9. Why do I keep reading about Festa as though he and Abel are ready to be better SP than Matthews?
10. What will the team do with Wallner, Fedko, Gonzales and our OF logjam?
11. How much more leash does Roden have?

1. No.  That stat is 7 of 40, 18%, 9th worst in MLB.  LY was 11%, 3rd worst.  He is decent as pitcher handler, framer, blocker and decent if somewhat inconsistent hitter.  We hope he is the backup or at least a mentor to a youngster with talent.

2. No.  His BA is some kind of miracle that is likely not sustainable, if the Twins thought so he'd be the DH.  His career BA over a bunch of years is sub .200.

3. Yes.  His option for next year is waaaay too much money.  He will be missed but there are replacement candidates.

4. Yes, if they could actually get anything.  He is in a terrible slump and even when doing well was strictly a platoon hitter vs RHP as well as a substandard defensive player.

5. When Buck is healthy he is amazing.  Aye, there's the rub!  His range is diminshing and it would make sense to move him to RF which, they say, will prolong his career.  Bring on the Walker!!

6. Maybe, hard to say what Ober-wan will come up with.  I can easily count at least 10 starter candidates for next spring.

7. We are really counting on him to come back and lead our young starters.  Would be nice if he and Ryan would be 1&2 aces to take the pressure off.

8. Certainly a miracle.  He is my current exhibit A that Maki is a genious!  Reminds me of Rick Aguillera, didn't blow everybody away, but somehow got the job done.  I miss DuranDuran.

9., Abel looked really really good before he got hurt, great stuff that's hard to hit.  I'm not quite as sold on Festa but he will likely be in the mix next year.  Zebby has had some great games, and some bad games, he needs to gain consistency to avoid being the swing guy.

10.  I think they are done with Wally.  Despite his rocket arm, teams run on him becasue 2/3 of throws are inaccurate.  His SO% isn't getting better.  No idea where Fedko really is, was a total deer in the headlights at the plate during his cup of coffee.  Gonzo is gonna have to hit like a maniac because he's not quite as good at D, however, he is out of options and so may get a now or never shot.

11. Why in the world is a LHB who is hitting .196 vs RHP still on the roster!!!!!

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

This offseason is the sweet spot for a Royce Lewis contract extension. His overall numbers will depress his arbitration award. Next offseason will be too late, he will go to free agency.

I don’t see him getting more than $16M in arbitration for the next two seasons. Would he go for a guaranteed 4 years and $48M?

Lewis is a Boras client, and it's clear he's a believer in himself. I can't see him taking a discount now that he's been healthy.

[bean5302]

It'll be interesting to see who the new GM and front office will prioritize after Pohlad fires Zoll.

[DJL44]

36 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Lewis is a Boras client, and it's clear he's a believer in himself. I can't see him taking a discount now that he's been healthy.

Right, but he doesn’t have much of a choice but to take a discount in arbitration. His stats for the past two years suck. Plus he’s been injured a LOT so there is that factor that will depress his value on a free market contract. I think there is an opportunity this offseason, but only this offseason. Even a 3 year contract would be preferable to the 2 years of arbitration control they currently have.

[Derojo]

Quote: but Minnesota may not have enough starting pitching depth to simply pencil him into the rotation and assume everything will work itself out. Pablo López, Mick Abel, and David Festa are all working their way back from injuries. Even if all three are healthy when spring training begins, the Twins will have plenty of uncertainty behind them. :Unquote. 

You seem to be convoluting two very different points concerning Matthews. 1. The number of starting pitchers. At this point we have too few, so why not use him? 2. As regarding next year, there is uncertainty as you stated: Cole Sands being an example. On both points Zebby should be given the opportunity to start, now and next spring. Do you mean MN may have enough starting pitching depth, so as to not pencil Zebby in? What about the uncertainty next spring? As I stated: convoluted writing, it is.

[Derojo]

Caratini like Buxton swings at junk and gets himself out. The Twins makeup and approach can't afford that. No easy outs, and put the ball in play has to be the way. The Twins need to run more. I'm surprised Culpepper on first base, didn't try to run with Keaschall at bat and two outs. Why not?

[PuckettPond]

Leave them where they are through next season. Keaschall will play more CF as Buxton will be on the IL 50% or more next season. Lewis has turned the corner & Matthews is still developing. All 3 look more confident, happy & productive.

[bean5302]

24 minutes ago, Derojo said:

Quote: but Minnesota may not have enough starting pitching depth to simply pencil him into the rotation and assume everything will work itself out. Pablo López, Mick Abel, and David Festa are all working their way back from injuries. Even if all three are healthy when spring training begins, the Twins will have plenty of uncertainty behind them. :Unquote. 

You seem to be convoluting two very different points concerning Matthews. 1. The number of starting pitchers. At this point we have too few, so why not use him? 2. As regarding next year, there is uncertainty as you stated: Cole Sands being an example. On both points Zebby should be given the opportunity to start, now and next spring. Do you mean MN may have enough starting pitching depth, so as to not pencil Zebby in? What about the uncertainty next spring? As I stated: convoluted writing, it is.

Is Royce Lewis on the Twins?
Is Royce Lewis a 1B / viewed as a 1B?
How does Royce Lewis view himself?
How does Royce Lewis perform down the stretch?

If he's healthy the rest of the season, he'll be close to 500 PA. If he hits like he has for the past 20 games, his season will end at a wRC+ 120ish with probably 2.5ish WAR.

His stats have not "sucked." It's not like Lewis has ever posted a season below 1.0 WAR actual, despite missing a ton of time.

A 150G season rate of
2023 = wRC+ 152, 5.9 fWAR
2024 = wRC+ 106, 2.0 fWAR
2025 = wRC+ 85, 1.4 fWAR
2026 = wRC+ 120ish, 3.0 fWAR (assuming he continues to hit like recently wRC+ 146 over last 20)

Now, what Lewis is worth 2 years from now on the open market, I have no idea. If he keeps raking and stays healthy, he'll be entering free agency at age 30 with 3 consecutive healthy enough seasons. I'm guessing he'd probably get 4-5 years and $100MM+.

In 2029, what he did 4+ years ago won't factor in the contract to limit it to less than that. I think he'd probably be in line for Alonso money.

vs. 

What happens if Royce reverts back to a league average hitter who is hurt all the time? Obviously, he'd be taking a 1yr $6MM deal or something like that.

It all depends on how Lewis views his future, where he plays, etc.

In my opinion, his arbitration values will likely hinge greatly on his performance next year. Continuing his current production rate, I'd say $5MM, $15MM for $20MM over the next two years, but then again, you and I disagree on how the final year of arbitration will be viewed moving forward. You seem to believe the fair market value escalator will only apply to super elite mold breakers (like Skubal) while I think it will be applied universally.

Provided Lewis believes in himself, over that 4 year period, he could expect to make $60-80MM vs. your $48MM offer. The kicker is Lewis would be entering free agency well over the hill at age 32 vs. at the tipping point of age 30. Giving up age 30-31 seasons would be pretty catastrophic to his free agency value IMHO. 

[HerbieFan]

I don't know how the club could have Festa in their 2027 plans at all.  I think anything they get from him should be considered a bonus.  I also don't know how they can count on Ober given the continued decline in velocity.

Lopez, Ryan, Taj are a great start to a rotation.  Kremer has the track record to claim one of the last two spots.  I'm hoping Abel looks good enough to take the other.

I'd like to see Zebby given a chance in ST to compete for the #4 or #5 spot in the rotation.  If Abel takes a spot then Zebby gets transitioned to the bullpen.

To me they need to just put Royce at 1B and leave him there.  For the rest of 2026 and 2027.

Keaschall looks like a LF to me.  Get the kid some work in the offseason and ST.  He's athletic enough to be an asset.  

[South Dakota Tom]

Lots of short term/long term questions here.  Right now, assuming health, we would have Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Abel, Bradley, but then Festa, Matthews, Kramer, Rojas, Prielipp, which seems like an excessive amount of starting pitching.  I like having 10 starters, though that right now seems a tad too many given what other teams will pay for 3rd-5th starters (and no, I'm not projecting which of those are prototypical 3-5s).  

I do not want Jackson as our backup catcher (I feel like when they DFA'd him, they promised him he'd be the first one back up, as I see no other reason to keep him on the roster when an OF went down).  Do we have to run him through the waiver process again when we need a roster spot?  I don't want to lose him, but I'm starting to get the sense that ownership is going to bite the bullet and give Jeffers a QO, which is an overpay, but an overpay on a relatively inexpensive roster.

Not dissatisfied with the position player roster, nor the flexibility.  I see both Larnach and Bell being gone, spots filled with EmRod (by necessity) and Walker Jenkins, which will pay (coupled with Ober being traded, which I guess will happen) the difference between Jeffers now and that $23M figure.  I'm confident that by 2028, one of the prospect catchers (or two) will be up and running, which is projecting some pretty quick advancement, but I don't want to see us hire another catcher when that's the thickest area of our pipeline.

I like Lewis, Clemens, Culpepper, Lee in the IF, with Kreidler as depth; I like Buxton, Keaschall, Jenkins in the OF, with Roden, EmRod, Caratini, Jeffers, and then one of Wallner/Gonzalez/Mendez or my sleeper pick Sabado as 13th man/DH.  Go Twins!

[DJL44]

56 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Is Royce Lewis on the Twins?
Is Royce Lewis a 1B / viewed as a 1B?
How does Royce Lewis view himself?
How does Royce Lewis perform down the stretch?

If he's healthy the rest of the season, he'll be close to 500 PA. If he hits like he has for the past 20 games, his season will end at a wRC+ 120ish with probably 2.5ish WAR.

His stats have not "sucked." It's not like Lewis has ever posted a season below 1.0 WAR actual, despite missing a ton of time.

A 150G season rate of
2023 = wRC+ 152, 5.9 fWAR
2024 = wRC+ 106, 2.0 fWAR
2025 = wRC+ 85, 1.4 fWAR
2026 = wRC+ 120ish, 3.0 fWAR (assuming he continues to hit like recently wRC+ 146 over last 20)

Now, what Lewis is worth 2 years from now on the open market, I have no idea. If he keeps raking and stays healthy, he'll be entering free agency at age 30 with 3 consecutive healthy enough seasons. I'm guessing he'd probably get 4-5 years and $100MM+.

In 2029, what he did 4+ years ago won't factor in the contract to limit it to less than that. I think he'd probably be in line for Alonso money.

vs. 

What happens if Royce reverts back to a league average hitter who is hurt all the time? Obviously, he'd be taking a 1yr $6MM deal or something like that.

It all depends on how Lewis views his future, where he plays, etc.

In my opinion, his arbitration values will likely hinge greatly on his performance next year. Continuing his current production rate, I'd say $5MM, $15MM for $20MM over the next two years, but then again, you and I disagree on how the final year of arbitration will be viewed moving forward. You seem to believe the fair market value escalator will only apply to super elite mold breakers (like Skubal) while I think it will be applied universally.

Provided Lewis believes in himself, over that 4 year period, he could expect to make $60-80MM vs. your $48MM offer. The kicker is Lewis would be entering free agency well over the hill at age 32 vs. at the tipping point of age 30. Giving up age 30-31 seasons would be pretty catastrophic to his free agency value IMHO. 

But he has missed a ton of time. Your comp, Pete Alonso, routinely leads the league in games played. He’s missed 10 games over the past 5 seasons. Royce has missed 250 games over the last four seasons. 

What is “fair market” for a first baseman with a career 108 OPS who routinely misses 60 games a year? That’s not quite worth Ryan O’Hearn money. I think $10M is fair, but salary inflation could get that up to $12M by 2028.

As far as his market value as a free agent, I think Josh Naylor is the best case scenario - if Royce can stay healthy. If he gets hurt again then he is probably looking at a 1 year contract. Guaranteed 2 extra years and $33M right now could be appealing. 

4 years $48M would be my opening offer. Boras could come back with something ridiculous like 7 years $120M. 

If the Twins don’t extend him we will see weekly “trade Royce Lewis” articles at Twins Daily.

 

[TheLeviathan]

Keaschall's outfield play being called "questionable" is some mighty generous labeling, :)

I think he's a player in terms of what he can bring at the plate.  Get that man an outfield coach and hit flyballs at him all winter.

[bean5302]

5 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

But he has missed a ton of time. Your comp, Pete Alonso, routinely leads the league in games played. He’s missed 10 games over the past 5 seasons. Royce has missed 250 games over the last four seasons. 

What is “fair market” for a first baseman with a career 108 OPS who routinely misses 60 games a year? That’s not quite worth Ryan O’Hearn money. I think $10M is fair, but salary inflation could get that up to $12M by 2028.

As far as his market value as a free agent, I think Josh Naylor is the best case scenario - if Royce can stay healthy. If he gets hurt again then he is probably looking at a 1 year contract. Guaranteed 2 extra years and $33M right now could be appealing. 

4 years $48M would be my opening offer. Boras could come back with something ridiculous like 7 years $120M. 

If the Twins don’t extend him we will see weekly “trade Royce Lewis” articles at Twins Daily.

 

Alonso got $150MM. I gave a range well under that, but even so, I don't think teams care much about health from 4+ years ago. If Lewis qualifies at 504 PA this year, plays 140+ games the next two years, it won't block him from getting a 4-5 year deal or $20MM+ per year from my perspective. Of course, neither one of us knows how Royce feels about the organization at all. That'll make a pretty big impact on how excited he is to stick around long term.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, HerbieFan said:

I don't know how the club could have Festa in their 2027 plans at all.  I think anything they get from him should be considered a bonus...

Agreed. I consider Festa's career likely over.

[DJL44]

6 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Agreed. I consider Festa's career likely over.

They should probably cut him loose from the 40 man roster and give the spot to someone else.

[bean5302]

4 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

They should probably cut him loose from the 40 man roster and give the spot to someone else.

He's on the 60 day IL so he's not really causing any issues, and he's certainly a better investment than Tristan Gray, Alex Jackson or Kyler Fedko.

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, bean5302 said:

He's on the 60 day IL so he's not really causing any issues, and he's certainly a better investment than Tristan Gray, Alex Jackson or Kyler Fedko.

I don’t expect Gray or Fedko to make it through the offseason on the roster either.

[bean5302]

It'll be interesting to see what happens given the double-surgery. I think Festa is done, but I don't see the harm in keeping him on the roster to get a look at him in the Spring Training. The Twins give away roster spots to bottom feeders every year under the Falvinzoll mantra. Who knows?