Would Tom Pohlad Really Trade Joe Ryan?

[chpettit19]

36 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Given the current CBA/history, and given Joe Ryan will hit free agency for his age 32+ seasons, I can't see any team going to 6 on him. I think 5 is probably a stretch. Snell only got 5 at age 32 after winning 2 Cy Youngs.

That Snell contract has aged... very poorly so far.

Oh, I wouldn't bet on it, but it only takes 1 and he'll be asking for 7 still probably. I'd say the most likely deal is 4 years, followed by 5, then 6. AAV going down as years go up. That'd be my strategy if I were his agent, at least. And if there's a team looking to save on the AAV, he may talk them into that last year. But, no, I wouldn't bet on that and would be impressed if the agent can pull it off.

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't buy this argument at all. What business reason is there for keeping him? Fan morale? Loss of ticket sales after trading him? 

Why is that any different than trading him in the offseason? What is the business benefit of holding Joe Ryan in a season you're already looking to set the all time low ticket sale record for Target Field and can't get or stay above .500? You're taking the business hit now, in the offseason, at next deadline, or next offseason. The business hit is coming in every scenario that doesn't include a Joe Ryan extension. What is the benefit of having that hit later vs now?

Really? Come on now, think it through. Tom's biggest business problem is trying to turn around a negative perception in the market about whether the Twins are willing to try to win or if this is all about just making as much money as possible. Pohlad went out of his way to go on record saying a few weeks ago that he wants to win and compete for championships. He got some national publicity for saying that and it was faithfully reprinted in the local press. If he then turns around a few weeks later and trades the team's best player for a bunch of prospects that no one other than us baseball nerds had ever heard of, the vast majority of fans will think that what he said before was just empty words. "He's just another Pohlad. All he cares about is making the most money. He doesn't care about the team, he doesn't care about us fans,  he doesn't care about putting a winning product on the field. Why should I care about this team if it doesn't care about me. " Tom has created expectations that he needs to fulfill. He doesn't have to do it by trading for Sonny Gray at the deadline and paying him $25 million, but he can't kill the team's image by backtracking from what he said and trading away the best guy on the team. And by the way, yes there will be lost ticket sales for the rest of this year. 

Think bigger than just selling a few tickets and a few beers this season. The Twins biggest business problem is the rightfully formed image that ownership doesn't care about the team, it only cares about money. Tom is trying to turn that perception around. To do that, he needs to show that he is trying to put the best product on the field even if it costs him more money and even if it may make more baseball sense to trade good players right now for a future team. In other words, he needs to show that he is trying to WIN. People cut slack for an owner who shows he is trying to win. He can say, "hey, new Sherriff in town. Instead of trading good players away and playing for a future that may never come, we're trying to win NOW." Fans will cut some slack to a guy who is trying his hardest to put the best product he can on the field. Tom needs to show that he is that guy to have any chance of turning a crappy situation around. Fans will cut no slack for team owner who is trying to maximize profit or cut his financial losses. 

Now let's switch to a trade in the off-season. In the offseason the Twins can make Ryan an offer and play the PR game that they offered as good a deal as anyone or the biggest deal in Twins history and he decided  to leave anyway. Nothing they could do. And who knows, maybe he'll actually take your offer. You also have Lopez next year so you a have a replacement. Huge business difference from trading him at the deadline for prospects this year.

Look, if this was just a baseball decision I can see the argument for trading Ryan now although as you know, I'm not convinced we can't get as good a deal in the off-season as we can now. Neither one of us knows the answer to that question because we don't know what's being offered. I do agree trading Jeffers now is the only thing that makes any sense from a baseball perspective and that may be true for trading Ryan depending on the offers out there that you and I will never see. Still, from a business perspective it's much better to hold Ryan to the end of this year and hope the team actually at least sort of contends for a playoff spot. If they don't, it's not ownership's fault; we kept our best players and tried to get new ones but we just didn't have enough. If they trade Ryan, Jeffers, Larnach, Bell, etc. away and the team tanks, then it is ownership's fault. "The team was good enough to contend but the owners traded anybody making money to save themselves a few bucks in 2026 and get cheaper players." Pohlad can get away with trading Jeffers because he's a pending free agent. He can't get away with trading Ryan away now and still saying he's trying to win with a straight face. He has a better chance of pulling that off in the offseason. The baseball bona fides don't matter as much as the business strategy does at this point. 

[chpettit19]

17 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

Really? Come on now, think it through. Tom's biggest business problem is trying to turn around a negative perception in the market about whether the Twins are willing to try to win or if this is all about just making as much money as possible. Pohlad went out of his way to go on record saying a few weeks ago that he wants to win and compete for championships. He got some national publicity for saying that and it was faithfully reprinted in the local press. If he then turns around a few weeks later and trades the team's best player for a bunch of prospects that no one other than us baseball nerds had ever heard of, the vast majority of fans will think that what he said before was just empty words. "He's just another Pohlad. All he cares about is making the most money. He doesn't care about the team, he doesn't care about us fans,  he doesn't care about putting a winning product on the field. Why should I care about this team if it doesn't care about me. " Tom has created expectations that he needs to fulfill. He doesn't have to do it by trading for Sonny Gray at the deadline and paying him $25 million, but he can't kill the team's image by backtracking from what he said and trading away the best guy on the team. And by the way, yes there will be lost ticket sales for the rest of this year. 

Think bigger than just selling a few tickets and a few beers this season. The Twins biggest business problem is the rightfully formed image that ownership doesn't care about the team, it only cares about money. Tom is trying to turn that perception around. To do that, he needs to show that he is trying to put the best product on the field even if it costs him more money and even if it may make more baseball sense to trade good players right now for a future team. In other words, he needs to show that he is trying to WIN. People cut slack for an owner who shows he is trying to win. He can say, "hey, new Sherriff in town. Instead of trading good players away and playing for a future that may never come, we're trying to win NOW." Fans will cut some slack to a guy who is trying his hardest to put the best product he can on the field. Tom needs to show that he is that guy to have any chance of turning a crappy situation around. Fans will cut no slack for team owner who is trying to maximize profit or cut his financial losses. 

Now let's switch to a trade in the off-season. In the offseason the Twins can make Ryan an offer and play the PR game that they offered as good a deal as anyone or the biggest deal in Twins history and he decided  to leave anyway. Nothing they could do. And who knows, maybe he'll actually take your offer. You also have Lopez next year so you a have a replacement. Huge business difference from trading him at the deadline for prospects this year.

Look, if this was just a baseball decision I can see the argument for trading Ryan now although as you know, I'm not convinced we can't get as good a deal in the off-season as we can now. Neither one of us knows the answer to that question because we don't know what's being offered. I do agree trading Jeffers now is the only thing that makes any sense from a baseball perspective and that may be true for trading Ryan depending on the offers out there that you and I will never see. Still, from a business perspective it's much better to hold Ryan to the end of this year and hope the team actually at least sort of contends for a playoff spot. If they don't, it's not ownership's fault; we kept our best players and tried to get new ones but we just didn't have enough. If they trade Ryan, Jeffers, Larnach, Bell, etc. away and the team tanks, then it is ownership's fault. "The team was good enough to contend but the owners traded anybody making money to save themselves a few bucks in 2026 and get cheaper players." Pohlad can get away with trading Jeffers because he's a pending free agent. He can't get away with trading Ryan away now and still saying he's trying to win with a straight face. He has a better chance of pulling that off in the offseason. The baseball bona fides don't matter as much as the business strategy does at this point. 

Joe Ryan is leaving the MN Twins. It's happening sometime in the next year and a half. This team isn't good enough to contend as currently constructed. Nobody other than us baseball nerds are paying attention as is. 

The Twins have already made him an offer. Dan Hayes reported his demands were 7 years/210 million. The Twins can already make that pitch to fans. But the casual baseball fans don't care about it anyways. Nobody has ever cared. That's one of the Twins biggest struggles is thinking that "hey, we tried really hard to spend money but the player just didn't want it" works. Nobody cares. Either you sign him or you don't. That's it. There is no try. He'll just be another cheap Pohlad no matter when Joe Ryan leaves. Trading him now when fan morale is already tanked is the best business decision he can make. It gives them the best chance to actually do what fans care about and that's build a winner. The team can't even get above .500 and you think fans are going to turn out next year because Tom didn't trade Joe until the offseason?

Trading him in the offseason just makes it all the more fresh and stretches out the pain. They should've finished the sell off over the offseason and not put themselves in the situation to lose Lopez, Ryan, and Jeffers all over the next 2 seasons and give the fans more opportunity to say "cheap Pohlads." You don't get any slack for a team that's below .500 that you're not investing in. There is no casual fan who believes the Twins sitting below .500 are some "win now" team. Trading Jeffers now, Joe in the offseason, and losing Lopez at the deadline or offseason next year just stretches out the bad PR for another year and a half.

There is no business upside in keeping Joe Ryan for 10 more starts that I can see. None. I see only downside. You want to start getting fans back? Get them excited for the future. No casual fan is investing in this team. But you move your vets with no future with the team and bring up the youth who you can sell as the future? That's the business move. Should've been done in the offseason, but Tom already screwed the PR situation up by making awful promises about competing this year. The move that can actually bring fans is showing them Jenkins, Culpepper, Mendez, Gonzalez, and the rest of the young guys. Trade Joe to add to the future. Holding him doesn't save any bad PR at all. It just stretches it out for a team with no chance to win and that no casual fan looks at in the standings and says "well, dang, Tom didn't let them trade Joe so now I see how hard they're trying to win even though they're a below .500 team."

[LA Vikes Fan]

57 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Joe Ryan is leaving the MN Twins. It's happening sometime in the next year and a half. This team isn't good enough to contend as currently constructed. Nobody other than us baseball nerds are paying attention as is. 

The Twins have already made him an offer. Dan Hayes reported his demands were 7 years/210 million. The Twins can already make that pitch to fans. But the casual baseball fans don't care about it anyways. Nobody has ever cared. That's one of the Twins biggest struggles is thinking that "hey, we tried really hard to spend money but the player just didn't want it" works. Nobody cares. Either you sign him or you don't. That's it. There is no try. He'll just be another cheap Pohlad no matter when Joe Ryan leaves. Trading him now when fan morale is already tanked is the best business decision he can make. It gives them the best chance to actually do what fans care about and that's build a winner. The team can't even get above .500 and you think fans are going to turn out next year because Tom didn't trade Joe until the offseason?

Trading him in the offseason just makes it all the more fresh and stretches out the pain. They should've finished the sell off over the offseason and not put themselves in the situation to lose Lopez, Ryan, and Jeffers all over the next 2 seasons and give the fans more opportunity to say "cheap Pohlads." You don't get any slack for a team that's below .500 that you're not investing in. There is no casual fan who believes the Twins sitting below .500 are some "win now" team. Trading Jeffers now, Joe in the offseason, and losing Lopez at the deadline or offseason next year just stretches out the bad PR for another year and a half.

There is no business upside in keeping Joe Ryan for 10 more starts that I can see. None. I see only downside. You want to start getting fans back? Get them excited for the future. No casual fan is investing in this team. But you move your vets with no future with the team and bring up the youth who you can sell as the future? That's the business move. Should've been done in the offseason, but Tom already screwed the PR situation up by making awful promises about competing this year. The move that can actually bring fans is showing them Jenkins, Culpepper, Mendez, Gonzalez, and the rest of the young guys. Trade Joe to add to the future. Holding him doesn't save any bad PR at all. It just stretches it out for a team with no chance to win and that no casual fan looks at in the standings and says "well, dang, Tom didn't let them trade Joe so now I see how hard they're trying to win even though they're a below .500 team."

Sorry, we're going to have just agree to disagree. I think you overstate how interested fans are in seeing minor league guys come up. You and I might be interested in that but I think most fans only care about seeing a wining team and guys they know. Bringing up minor leaguers doesn't get you a winning team most of the time, you usually get the opposite, and it certainly doesn't get you guys most fans know. Oh well, reasonable minds can differ and apparently do in this case. 

[soyouresayingtheresachance]

If Tom Pohlad meant what he said about competing, trading Joe Ryan would be the opposite of that. 

If you trade Ryan, you would then need to find another player just like Joe Ryan. Same can be said for Jeffers. This Twins team has some legitimate stars. Joe Ryan would be the top pitcher available. Jeffers would be the top catcher available. Buxton, though not being traded, would be the top CF available. Ryan is a top 20 pitcher in MLB. Jeffers is probably a top 5 catcher in the league. These are not players a team with championship aspirations gets rid of. These are players you extend and build around. 

[amjgt]

The advantage of trading Ryan in the offseason and taking the PR hit then is:

a) football will be distracting the casuals 

b) more importantly, they might more easily be able to make a move that makes losing Ryan hurt less. Maybe it’s an extension, maybe it’s a trade, maybe it’s signing a FA. “Pairing” a Ryan trade with any of those is easier in the offseason. 

[Woof Bronzer]

14 hours ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

The Twins biggest business problem is the rightfully formed image that ownership doesn't care about the team, it only cares about money. Tom is trying to turn that perception around. To do that, he needs to show that he is trying to put the best product on the field even if it costs him more money and even if it may make more baseball sense to trade good players right now for a future team. In other words, he needs to show that he is trying to WIN

This isn't "perception", it's the Pohlads' business strategy.  Tom has been involved at least since last September, when he made his first appearance at a Twins press conference.  Turning the "perception" around is extremely easy:  spend money.  The easiest thing in the world to do!  He has had multiple opportunities to inject money into the team.  Every day he wakes up and decides not to.  

Don't fall for what a Pohlad says.  Look at what a Pohlad does.  We've been through this so many times.  Fans were so excited when Joey took over because he said he loved baseball and cared.  We all know how that ended. 

14 hours ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

In the offseason the Twins can make Ryan an offer and play the PR game that they offered as good a deal as anyone or the biggest deal in Twins history and he decided  to leave anyway. Nothing they could do.

 You think fans are going to be furious if he's traded in a couple weeks, but they'll fall for the PR lies and be totally ok with it in the offseason?  I'd like to believe fans are smarter than that by now.

If you take Tommy's word that he truly wants to improve the team....which is going to do that:  a) trading Joe Ryan at the height of his value for present/future prospects, or b)investing limited payroll over several years on the declining years of a pitcher who has not at all proved he is a playoff starter or even a guy you can count on in the 2nd half of a season?  Your mileage may vary but I'm taking a) in a heartbeat.

[JADBP]

20 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Why do you think they haven't? Joe Ryan has a mutual option for 2027. Those are essentially never picked up, but that isn't the point. The point is that Joe Ryan and the MN Twins discussed his future with the team last offseason. They had to in order to do that option in his current deal. Why would you assume they didn't also discuss 2028 and beyond? Dan Hayes has reported that the number the Twins were given is 7 years and $210 million to sign him.

Sure sounds like they "showed some stones."

7 at 30 is not a bad starting point. That’s a lot of years but I believe he’s the best SP the Twins have had since Johann.  I think the Twins can start negotiating by buying out his last arb and 4-6 more.  With the looming minimum payroll the Twins will need him to get the salary levels up!  And to WIN games!  He’s one of the top 10 SPs already and getting better every year. 

[chpettit19]

14 hours ago, soyouresayingtheresachance said:

If Tom Pohlad meant what he said about competing, trading Joe Ryan would be the opposite of that. 

If you trade Ryan, you would then need to find another player just like Joe Ryan. Same can be said for Jeffers. This Twins team has some legitimate stars. Joe Ryan would be the top pitcher available. Jeffers would be the top catcher available. Buxton, though not being traded, would be the top CF available. Ryan is a top 20 pitcher in MLB. Jeffers is probably a top 5 catcher in the league. These are not players a team with championship aspirations gets rid of. These are players you extend and build around. 

Tarik Skubal may have something to say about "the top pitcher available."

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, JADBP said:

7 at 30 is not a bad starting point. That’s a lot of years but I believe he’s the best SP the Twins have had since Johann.  I think the Twins can start negotiating by buying out his last arb and 4-6 more.  With the looming minimum payroll the Twins will need him to get the salary levels up!  And to WIN games!  He’s one of the top 10 SPs already and getting better every year. 

7 at 30 is an awful contract for the Twins. You'd be paying him through his age 37 season. And paying him at least 5 million more than the market is likely to bare. Twins fans would be complaining about that contract ruining their payroll (or cap) so fast. There are plenty of other ways to get the payroll up that don't include overpaying Joe Ryan on years and money. And, no, I don't think Joe Ryan is a top 10 pitcher in baseball. Top 20ish is a better argument.