What Are Your Deadline Moves

[amjgt]

I don't want to sell in 2026 because I worry about what that does to 2027. 

As @Cory Engelhardt posted above, it's easy to look at a potential rotation in 2027 that starts with Pablo, Ryan, and Taj and feel pretty good about things, especially knowing the options we have for the 4th and 5th spots.

With that rotation in place I want to make decisions for the offense that is going to make us look like a team that should make the playoffs. Jeffers can be a huge part of that. 

Admittedly I'm stuck on this Jeffers thing. I refuse to give up on him contributing to the Twins in 2027. The path to that happening just feels more realistic now than at any time in the past. A Jeffers/Jackson combo costs you about $25M, whereas a Caratini/Jackson combo cost you about $11M (once you count the 2028 buyout). I'm sorry but having Jeffers for $14M more is just flat out worth it. 

This relies on two things. 
1) Giving Jeffers the QO and him accepting it
2) Trading Caratini in the next two weeks

Neither of those is a given, but both seem reasonable. 

[LyleCole]

1 hour ago, amjgt said:

I don't want to sell in 2026 because I worry about what that does to 2027. 

As @Cory Engelhardt posted above, it's easy to look at a potential rotation in 2027 that starts with Pablo, Ryan, and Taj and feel pretty good about things, especially knowing the options we have for the 4th and 5th spots.

With that rotation in place I want to make decisions for the offense that is going to make us look like a team that should make the playoffs. Jeffers can be a huge part of that. 

Admittedly I'm stuck on this Jeffers thing. I refuse to give up on him contributing to the Twins in 2027. The path to that happening just feels more realistic now than at any time in the past. A Jeffers/Jackson combo costs you about $25M, whereas a Caratini/Jackson combo cost you about $11M (once you count the 2028 buyout). I'm sorry but having Jeffers for $14M more is just flat out worth it. 

This relies on two things. 
1) Giving Jeffers the QO and him accepting it
2) Trading Caratini in the next two weeks

Neither of those is a given, but both seem reasonable. 

I don't think you can count on Pablo whatsoever.    

Again, the real question is what the ownership is going to do.    Are they going to increase the payroll $50-70 million to get it up to at least league average?   That is doubtful.   That means paying Jeffers the market free agent rate which I estimate to be at least 3 years, $51 million (and I doubt that the Twins will offer Jeffers the QO which is estimated to be $23.1 million).  That means when Joe Ryan is a free agent competing in the market that will be a multiyear contract with AYA north of $30 million.   And it means extending Buxton to a contract with an annual cost of probably $25-30 million per year.  AND ADDING OTHER REAL FREE AGENTS, not the discount, bargain basement players the Twins normally add.

All of that is doubtful.  So if you can move any of the players they will not sign to extended, high value contracts, you do it.  Joe Ryan is at his peak trade value right now.   High end pitcher with another year of team control that has a for most of the contending teams a very modest $13 million mutual agreement in lieu of arbitration.   He is worth two higher end prospects, with perhaps another more modest one thrown in. 

If they are not willing to pay,  rebuild and start the Walker Jenkins era.   

[amjgt]

Your assumptions are built on so much negativity. In my opinion that's a tough way to be a fan. What fun is it to always assume the worst? The bad results you worry about 18 months from now are dictating your current moves and attitude. Call me a Pollyanna, but man, that's just a way more fun way to be a fan.

ps. That's $13M mutual option is meaningless. It was a farcical inclusion to "get around" the silly unwritten rule about not negotiating arbitration agreements right up until the arbitration hearing. It has zero affect on anything.

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, amjgt said:

 

Admittedly I'm stuck on this Jeffers thing. I refuse to give up on him contributing to the Twins in 2027. The path to that happening just feels more realistic now than at any time in the past. A Jeffers/Jackson combo costs you about $25M, whereas a Caratini/Jackson combo cost you about $11M (once you count the 2028 buyout). I'm sorry but having Jeffers for $14M more is just flat out worth it. 

This relies on two things. 
1) Giving Jeffers the QO and him accepting it
2) Trading Caratini in the next two weeks

Neither of those is a given, but both seem reasonable. 

If the Twins are willing to offer Ryan Jeffers $23M for next season and make him the highest paid catcher in MLB, I am pretty confident he will return. Trade him for prospects and give him a huge free agent contract if that is what you want. If they have had discussions and are sure he would accept, they should absolutely trade him for prospects. Then they get to have their cake and eat it too.

[Cory Engelhardt]

7 hours ago, LyleCole said:

I don't think you can count on Pablo whatsoever.    

Again, the real question is what the ownership is going to do.    Are they going to increase the payroll $50-70 million to get it up to at least league average?   That is doubtful.   That means paying Jeffers the market free agent rate which I estimate to be at least 3 years, $51 million (and I doubt that the Twins will offer Jeffers the QO which is estimated to be $23.1 million).  That means when Joe Ryan is a free agent competing in the market that will be a multiyear contract with AYA north of $30 million.   And it means extending Buxton to a contract with an annual cost of probably $25-30 million per year.  AND ADDING OTHER REAL FREE AGENTS, not the discount, bargain basement players the Twins normally add.

All of that is doubtful.  So if you can move any of the players they will not sign to extended, high value contracts, you do it.  Joe Ryan is at his peak trade value right now.   High end pitcher with another year of team control that has a for most of the contending teams a very modest $13 million mutual agreement in lieu of arbitration.   He is worth two higher end prospects, with perhaps another more modest one thrown in. 

If they are not willing to pay,  rebuild and start the Walker Jenkins era.   

Why do you think they can't assume anything for their ace Pablo Lopez?

[nicksaviking]

It’s really frustrating, because there are absolutely right or wrong answers here. But until we know the rules of the new CBA, we don’t have a clue which is which. 
 

Every point since the end of the collusion era says they need to sell the big name players. But if by chance the new CBA mandates the Twins spend another 50-70M next year, they will not be capable of signing better free agents that Ryan and Jeffers. 

[Mike Sixel]

22 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

It’s really frustrating, because there are absolutely right or wrong answers here. But until we know the rules of the new CBA, we don’t have a clue which is which. 
 

Every point since the end of the collusion era says they need to sell the big name players. But if by chance the new CBA mandates the Twins spend another 50-70M next year, they will not be capable of signing better free agents that Ryan and Jeffers. 

They have to be willing to sign here..... I'm not sure if they are ?

Also, do you really want Ryan from agree 33 on?

[Cory Engelhardt]

22 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

They have to be willing to sign here..... I'm not sure if they are ?

Also, do you really want Ryan from agree 33 on?

I’d be good with him here. I don’t know if he will ever be great for a full season, but when he is on he is great. Couple him with Pablo and Taj and (I think) Abel and you do have something of a starting point in the rotation.

I know there is work to do for the bullpen but I do think that can get figured out. I just want to know which position to players they are truly going with to plan for their next winning team, and what they will add to get to that. 

[LyleCole]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Why do you think they can't assume anything for their ace Pablo Lopez?

You think a 31 year old pitcher (next season) who has been injured for a year and half can be counted on?

[Mike Sixel]

34 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I’d be good with him here. I don’t know if he will ever be great for a full season, but when he is on he is great. Couple him with Pablo and Taj and (I think) Abel and you do have something of a starting point in the rotation.

I know there is work to do for the bullpen but I do think that can get figured out. I just want to know which position to players they are truly going with to plan for their next winning team, and what they will add to get to that. 

You're good paying Ryan 25-30 million ages 33-35? I mean, that's fine, but a lot of people are going to be complaining for a year or three. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

33 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

You're good paying Ryan 25-30 million ages 33-35? I mean, that's fine, but a lot of people are going to be complaining for a year or three. 

Twins fans complaining about the team? Color me shocked :)

[Cory Engelhardt]

55 minutes ago, LyleCole said:

You think a 31 year old pitcher (next season) who has been injured for a year and half can be counted on?

Yes, his surgery went well and he is a good athlete with a strong track record. Frankly I'd extend him as needed as I think he is the leader of the pitching staff

[nicksaviking]

12 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

They have to be willing to sign here..... I'm not sure if they are ?

Also, do you really want Ryan from agree 33 on?

Even if free agents ARE willing to sign here, the Twins are going to have to compete against a dozen other similar clubs who are being forced to spend, including the entire AL Central. Not to mention actual attractive winning teams like Milwaukee and Tampa, and reliable organizations like St. Louis. 

So, maybe a small market team does get Skubal or Burnes. But then the others (Twins) are going to be forced to give 20M to Zac Gallen and 10M to Rhys Hoskins just to spend money.

As to the second sentence, I've been saying for years that Joe Ryan's years of control and age matched up at a perfect time to cut ties. But yeah, I think I'm changing my mind, but only because of this atypical CBA position. I'd rather pay a good player now AND past his prime than I would risk the team being force to sign four to six gross free agents next year. Next year's free agents are awful. If they can't get the cream of the crop, then I want the free agents they sign to be the type of low level contracts that the team doesn't mind cutting bait on come May. 

 

[TheLeviathan]

21 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Even if free agents ARE willing to sign here, the Twins are going to have to compete against a dozen other similar clubs who are being forced to spend, including the entire AL Central. Not to mention actual attractive winning teams like Milwaukee and Tampa, and reliable organizations like St. Louis. 

So, maybe a small market team does get Skubal or Burnes. But then the others (Twins) are going to be forced to give 20M to Zac Gallen and 10M to Rhys Hoskins just to spend money.

As to the second sentence, I've been saying for years that Joe Ryan's years of control and age matched up at a perfect time to cut ties. But yeah, I think I'm changing my mind, but only because of this atypical CBA position. I'd rather pay a good player now AND past his prime than I would risk the team being force to sign four to six gross free agents next year. Next year's free agents are awful. If they can't get the cream of the crop, then I want the free agents they sign to be the type of low level contracts that the team doesn't mind cutting bait on come May. 

 

I imagine the new CBA will have some grace periods built in.  The NBA learned the hard way with this a few seasons ago and I'd like to think MLB was paying attention enough to create a framework that isn't madness.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

I fundamentally struggle with what to do with this team.  

Logically and what best for the team is to either trade Jeffers now,  or run a bit of risk on giving the QO and hope he signs elsewhere.  With Caratini and Jackson as long as Caratini has no major injuries from last night the odds he gets traded increase.  

We should trade Joe Ryan at the deadline.   The potential work stoppage may decrease the value.   We may not get the offers that make it worthwhile to trade him.   

However - for what the actions the front office took last year, I am absolutely amazed at how good the clubhouse is.   Bell stating this is the best and closest clubhouse he has ever been in.   Granted that can change on the dime,  but there is value in having a team fight day in and day out.  This is also likely not a team that will give up even after a 4 game losing streak.   My biggest concern last year was that it would bring in losing mentality.  That we have avoided that risk is huge.  Have 2 big trade sell offs would increase the risk.   Even though this would be a true rebuild and the first time we have done it in decades.  

So if they meander and end with around a .500 winning percentage at the deadline what do they do?  Likely light buying is my guess.    

[nicksaviking]

5 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

I imagine the new CBA will have some grace periods built in.  The NBA learned the hard way with this a few seasons ago and I'd like to think MLB was paying attention enough to create a framework that isn't madness.

Maybe. But who knows. The MLB isn't known for learning any kind of lessons.

I'm not committed to either keeping or trading Ryan or Jeffers, but I do have strong opinions on how I DON'T want the team to look next year. And I do think removing those two makes for a higher chance that next year's club is another poorly constructed, unmemorable roster full of other teams' castoffs.

[HarmonK03]

14 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

My biggest concern last year was that it would bring in losing mentality.  That we have avoided that risk is huge.

I think Shelty is having an impact on the clubhouse.  But it also feels like Buxton is becoming more of a leader than in the past along with Pablo.  I think Buxton going to Cleveland last year after all the trades while on the IL and being with the team really helped the morale of the clubhouse.