The Twins Have a Golden Opportunity

[Linus]

One of the benefits of a lost season is the chance to essentially hold tryouts and get the best info possible for forming the 2027 roster. One of my biggest complaints about Falvey was his indecision when it came to moving on from mediocre at best players. I think this was partially due to his obsession with raising the floor of the roster and letting sample sizes prolong hanging on to players who just weren’t good enough. 
Here is my blueprint for the rest of the season. The following players get to play nearly everyday: Keaschall, Lee, Lewis and Martin against lefties. Of this group, only Keaschall gets another opportunity if they don’t perform the rest of the year. If they don’t perform I would turn Lee into the utility guy and would move on from Royce. Martin would become a bench player or AAA depth. If they succeed then the current configuration stays. The biggest role Martin would have on my club would be bench bat / platoon player. The following group is brought up for evaluation with everyday playing time: Culpepper, Roden and ‘Em Rod when healthy. If they succeed they stay and likely have a starting spot next year. If they don’t they go back across the river with the possible exception of Roden who needs to do something now. I’m not worried about Jenkins but if he is healthy and raking in st Paul I would eventually find a spot to bring him up. Wallner can earn his way back but would only be a DH - if he can’t perform by the end of the year I would try and trade him or he can start in AAA next year if he has options. Who is going to create the roster spots?  Jeffers would be traded at the deadline for the best deal we can get. I would shop Ryan for a high end package being particularly interested in SS, slugging first baseman and pitching prospects. I would hang onto him for now if the offers are lacking. I would also shop Clemens for an upside reliever but would be ok hanging onto him next year as insurance. There is a real possibility that Lee is a utility guy next year with Royce at third and Kody could play first.  Larnach and Bell would be shopped at the deadline although interest in Larnach would be minimal and nonexistent for Bell. If I need a roster spot I would release either / both. I would probably hang onto Ober as I’m assuming he doesn’t have much trade value and he can be pitching depth. If Ryan isn’t dealt and some team offers something useful I would trade Ober but not both of them as I feel a competitive team can take the field next year under this plan. If Festa gets healthy I would immediately put him in the pen. A healthy Festa along with Morris and Gomez is the start of a competent pen. 
The Twins have a golden opportunity to reshape their franchise. I hope that TP stays out of the baseball decisions and Zoll has the courage to be decisive in his actions. Who knows TP might even blow the dust out of the Twins wallet and hit the free agent market to fill any weak spots. I’m really confident in everything I’ve written except for the last sentence 😀. What would be your action plan for the rest of the year?

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Good post, @Linus

Something else I would add - I would like to see them hold onto Jeffers and Ryan through the deadline - and obviously Buxton. Changes to the CBA are looming even if they result in games being missed in 2027. The financial landscape might look much differently next spring and while it may currently seem like a pipe dream for the Twins to retain Jeffers and Ryan long-term, it could become a lot more feasible depending on how things shake out.

[Mike Sixel]

22 minutes ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Good post, @Linus

Something else I would add - I would like to see them hold onto Jeffers and Ryan through the deadline - and obviously Buxton. Changes to the CBA are looming even if they result in games being missed in 2027. The financial landscape might look much differently next spring and while it may currently seem like a pipe dream for the Twins to retain Jeffers and Ryan long-term, it could become a lot more feasible depending on how things shake out.

Except Jeffers will be a free agent at the end of the year.... No way he signs here. Not with this ownership. 

[SteveLV]

Wish we had traded for Bryce Eldridge.  Guy is raking with a .953 OPS so far with the Giants.

I totally agree with the philosophy of giving MLB playing time to young players to let them sink or swim.  This obsession with older players and trying to extract value is tiresome and does not lend itself to hope for the future for us fans.

Fedko, Roden, ERod, GG, and Jenkins all need some run when they get healthy.

They have started to cast off the driftwood like Outman and Arcia.  Just need to finish the house cleaning.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, SteveLV said:

Wish we had traded for Bryce Eldridge.  Guy is raking with a .953 OPS so far with the Giants.

I totally agree with the philosophy of giving MLB playing time to young players to let them sink or swim.  This obsession with older players and trying to extract value is tiresome and does not lend itself to hope for the future for us fans.

Fedko, Roden, ERod, GG, and Jenkins all need some run when they get healthy.

They have started to cast off the driftwood like Outman and Arcia.  Just need to finish the house cleaning.

They weren't trading Eldridge. But that would have been great. 

Agree on your main point! 

[SteveLV]

Package for Ryan would have been my idea.  Or Lopez this winter.

[RpR]

Just now, SteveLV said:

I totally agree with the philosophy of giving MLB playing time to young players to let them sink or swim.  This obsession with older players and trying to extract value is tiresome and does not lend itself to hope for the future for us fans.

 

Then why have a AAA team, bring them up for AA or A and watch them rot.

They come up, when people whose professional occupation is Baseball; they do not come up because some one see the young adults as their child who Should be playing.

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, SteveLV said:

Package for Ryan would have been my idea.  Or Lopez this winter.

Yup.... And I wanted that, but I didn't think there was any way to get him. 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

12 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Except Jeffers will be a free agent at the end of the year.... No way he signs here. Not with this ownership. 

Maybe not, but perhaps the new CBA changes the equation?

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Maybe not, but perhaps the new CBA changes the equation?

The new CBA will be negotiated after the year. There is zero chance the union will say free agents aren't free. 

[nicksaviking]

33 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

The new CBA will be negotiated after the year. There is zero chance the union will say free agents aren't free. 

I think the equation that changes involves the Twins being forced to spend more. If they have to increase payroll by 70M+, I could see them overpaying for Jeffers or offering a QO at an unheard of amount for a catcher before. 

[thelanges5]

If I were PohlZoll:

Start the season and see if any of the post-hype prospects are part of the future core; checks game film, baseball reference. Then...

• Keep throwing Lewis out at 1B
• Martin is not an everyday player, he can platoon in RF with Jenkins or E-Rod
• Fedko/Gabby can platoon in LF with Roden
• Culpepper up and Gray back down/DFA
• Trade Larnach and Wallner for some lottery picks
• Listen on any Bell offers
• Listen on any BP offers that aren't named Morris or Gomez
• Keep Buck
• Keep and extend Joe
• Love to keep Jeffers but FA and Boras guy so trade for a bullpen arm
• Draft Vahn Lackey
• Extend Pablo in the offseason
• Find Keaschall's defensive position in the offseason

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I think the equation that changes involves the Twins being forced to spend more. If they have to increase payroll by 70M+, I could see them overpaying for Jeffers or offering a QO at an unheard of amount for a catcher before. 

But, that doesn't happen until months after the season.....the new CBA I mean. Do we think they'll do that before they know what the new CBA is? I don't.....

I mean, I'd love it if they went back to spending on players......but I don't think that happens until year 2 or 3 of the new CBA (as I feel the floor and cap will be phased in).

[stringer bell]

It's all pretty murky, but a Jeffers QO isn't out of the question IMHO. That would mean that they don't trade him this summer and I'm not convinced that will happen. The landscape may be really different after the World Series this year. Unless the Twins pretty much miraculously manage to stay relevent, I think Joe Ryan is a goner at the trade deadline.

I'd like the Twins to do enough that Buxton continues to want to stay with the belief that he can be a veteran on a contending team before his skills suffer. Buxton has all the leverage with an ironclad no-trade without his approval. 

[Chris Hove]

I agree with this. The whole 2027 lockout, which will probably hit us, will affect everything in the future. Between re-sign, guys getting another year older, and potential free agents it's hard to say what i want right now, but yes bring up the kids let them learn at the big league level. I would like to see one of our outfield prospects traded for a SP in some deal. Keep Ryan; Jeffers is likely gone. I also want to see the Twins go after a power DH. We haven't had that type of player in forever. We need more power and run producers in this lineup. We have a nice thing going in the bullpen with Banda, Morris, Gomez, and hopefully Sands. Throw in Klein, Lawyerson, and Adams for bulk situations, haha, and a guy like C.J. Culpepper could give us a better sense of the future. SP Ryan, Lopez, Rojas, Prielipp, Taj, Abel, and maybe Ober, but I wouldn't be against cutting ties with him. IMO, it would be a better situation next year, assuming they will have a season. Nice writeup.

[4twinsJA]

I agree with most of what has been said here. Twins have 3 free agents at end of year- Jeffers, Bell, and Rogers. I would try to trade all 3 at trade deadline. Jeffers not resigning with Twins, Bell and Rogers are not part of Twins future plans. If trade Bell and if Wallner gets back on track, Wallner DH. Ryan trade value high, trade if get enough in return, no if not sufficient offers. Ober, not likely to get much for him, and can't have too much pitching- keep if trade Ryan. Larnach, probably not getting much for him, but time to move on so can see what young players have. Get Culpepper up with Twins when healthy, Gray expendable.

[amjgt]

We saw in Joe Pohlad's first few years, he wasn't afraid to spend money. I think it's a natural thing to take something over and want to maximize it. You're rich. You have as least SOME ego. And you want to make this thing that you now have control over amazing. 

Will Tom have the same feelings as his brother? Will he look at what's happening and think, "the best way to maximize, not only enjoyment, but franchise value is to spend at a level that's a bit uncomfortable." That's what Joe did, and it was pretty fun. But it also eventually bit him in the ass. 

Will Tom want to be viewed as some sort of savior (for the team and/or the Pohlad family), the way I think Joe wanted to be? Maybe. Does that mean he'll spend more money than we expect? Maybe.

But also.... maybe not.

In a vacuum I might say, it's just as likely that Tom tears it down to the studs and rides this thing out until the new CBA's effects kick in. But we're not in a vacuum. Tom's actions so far have not been of someone about to tear this down to the studs. People and companies that do that are not nearly as publicly available as Tom has been. 

My fears are more centered around Tom pushing chips in the middle that I don't want pushed. Tom has access to an immense amount of capital that doesn't cost him a dime. Prospect capital. My worry is that in a short-sighted attempt to be relevant and not really be able to spend actual money at a level that might be required to get relevant, Tom directs the baseball ops side to spend prospect capital to get players that would help the Twins be "a contender" in 2027. That might actually work in 2027 and 2028, but probably does longer-term damage to the franchise. 

[SteveLV]

Re-signing Ryan is not happening.

1)  The Twins FO has shown no appetite for such a deal'

2) There is zero reporting they have even approached him;

3) There is zero evidence or logic as to why Ryan would want to re-sign with this team;

4)  He would/should command a HUGE return at the trade deadline that would dovetail with the Twins projected window;

5)  I am not even sure if it is even smart for a mid-market team to spend big money on a 30 year old SP.  The risks are ginormous and the Twins can't afford to take that kind of risk.  And I love Ryan as a player.

[Linus]

When I originally posted this I didn’t address Buxton. I would keep Buck for a couple of reasons. First, he is likely to be our best CF for a few more years. EmRod, who is a risky prospect is considered stretched in CF. Jenkins is likely to end up in a corner simply because he is a really big dude already at 21 and he hasn’t even added his man muscles. Buck is still really fast and can play a good CF for several years. If Jenkins does end up the better choice Buck can slide to a corner and still be a big contributor with the bat. Secondly, I think Buck has quietly turned into an excellent leader. Not in the C4 talk a good game rather a leader by example and someone that is there for his teammates. Lastly I think the plan laid out here would have a better chance at success in 2027 than what the Twins attempted to do in 2026. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

It's all pretty murky, but a Jeffers QO isn't out of the question IMHO. That would mean that they don't trade him this summer and I'm not convinced that will happen. The landscape may be really different after the World Series this year. Unless the Twins pretty much miraculously manage to stay relevent, I think Joe Ryan is a goner at the trade deadline.

I'd like the Twins to do enough that Buxton continues to want to stay with the belief that he can be a veteran on a contending team before his skills suffer. Buxton has all the leverage with an ironclad no-trade without his approval. 

They aren't paying Jeffers the most money of any catcher in the game, imo. 

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

But, that doesn't happen until months after the season.....the new CBA I mean. Do we think they'll do that before they know what the new CBA is? I don't.....

I mean, I'd love it if they went back to spending on players......but I don't think that happens until year 2 or 3 of the new CBA (as I feel the floor and cap will be phased in).

You could be right about year 2 or 3.

But I’d guess there will be owner collusion and free agency will be mysteriously non-existent. Maybe a rogue team (that cares more about winning) like the Dodgers or Yankees, make a big splash trying to improve their teams before the door is officially closed to transactions. But I’d guess the teams that care about salary caps and owners’ profit share won’t help the MLBPA with even the normal incremental inflation that comes each year with free agency.

Plus, having a bunch of top earners not under contract at all will be leverage for the owners.

[LA Vikes Fan]

I agree with the OP except for keeping Jeffers. He's a free agent at the end of the year so trade him for hopefully a good AA prospect type or two. Nothing prevents us from re-signing him as a free agent, so we haven't really lost a lot other than the chance to make a QO. I would absolutely keep Ryan unless blown away by an offer that includes a cost controlled middle of the order bat. Do not trade him for just prospects. His value will be high in the off season, and I don't buy that we will get "more" at this year's trade deadline than in the off season. Play the "kids", keep Ryan in the rotation so you have some stability, and hope for a run. If you don't get one, at least you've sorted out the players from the pretenders. Whatever you do, don't play guys that aren't going to be here for the at least the next 2 years. That means goodbye Bell, goodbye Larnach, Lawrence, and Gray, and maybe goodbye Taylor Rogers and Ober. 

[Linus]

1 minute ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

I agree with the OP except for keeping Jeffers. He's a free agent at the end of the year so trade him for hopefully a good AA prospect type or two. Nothing prevents us from re-signing him as a free agent, so we haven't really lost a lot other than the chance to make a QO. I would absolutely keep Ryan unless blown away by an offer that includes a cost controlled middle of the order bat. Do not trade him for just prospects. His value will be high in the off season, and I don't buy that we will get "more" at this year's trade deadline than in the off season. Play the "kids", keep Ryan in the rotation so you have some stability, and hope for a run. If you don't get one, at least you've sorted out the players from the pretenders. Whatever you do, don't play guys that aren't going to be here for the at least the next 2 years. That means goodbye Bell, goodbye Larnach, Lawrence, and Gray, and maybe goodbye Taylor Rogers and Ober. 

My post calls for trading Jeffers. 

[amjgt]

Too many "Ryans"

Gotta trade one to clear things up. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

2 hours ago, Linus said:

My post calls for trading Jeffers. 

It does, you’re right. My bad. I guess I agree with you pretty much entirely.

[ashbury]

3 hours ago, amjgt said:

Too many "Ryans"

Gotta trade one to clear things up.