ashbury Verified Member Posted August 7, 2025 Posted August 7, 2025 For what it's worth, the video game OOTP dislikes every single one of these trades, after I let it run a couple of seasons. The guys we traded away mostly maintained value; not one of the prospects has retained their full luster - Rojas still seems promising by 2027 but hasn't established himself yet. Interestingly, the game does like the core of players we have. Brooks Lee has blossomed by 2027, Royce Lewis likewise., ditto Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins.. Buxton, Wallner, and Jeffers have maintained their value. Gabriel Gonzalez is starting to look like a player. Only Luke Keaschall has fizzled surprisingly, unless you are also surprised that Kody Clemens turned back into a pumpkin. On the pitching side, Zebby has come into his own, Canterino has overcome injuries to be effective, Ryan has continued to be good but not quite as stellar, Lopez similarly (and has a worrisome injury by 2027), and Ober has become simply a physical wreck. Humorously, after I turned the GM controls over to the internal AI bot, dear departed Ty France was signed again by the Twins to a one-year contract. It's just a game. And there are randomizing factors within it; if I went through the effort again the results could differ widely. I just wanted to see what would happen. I was especially curious since our FO has a reputation for being guided by analytics, same as OOTP is. Mike Sixel, Strombomb, TopGunn#22 and 2 others 4 1
The Great Hambino Verified Member Posted August 7, 2025 Posted August 7, 2025 4 minutes ago, NYCTK said: The fact that you can replace Varland for relatively cheap is another reason the trade happened. Phil Maton only got a $2M contract this last offseason. Ryne Stanek $4.5M. Kyle Finnegan $6M. You can find valuable arms on the FA market for fairly cheap. Not to mention the failed starters in your own system. So, while it's nice to have Varland on a league min contract for multiple years, it's simply not as valuable as having a SP or a LF at that same price. Honestly, I can see the Twins "winning" this trade in terms of excess value on Roden alone. I wouldn't bet on it, but I can see a 20% chance of that. Add in Rojas and this was a very good baseball trade. Those "fairly cheap" veterans are still more expensive than Varland. And it's not like his trade value was vanishing at the deadline. In fact, he could easily have had more value at future deadlines if he spent 2026 establishing himself as a closer, which I believe he has the stuff and mentality to do. They acted as if this was their last chance to recoup value on him We're just going to have to agree to disagree on Roden. I think that's an incredibly optimistic percentage that assumes no future development on Varland's end ashbury 1
DJL44 Verified Member Posted August 7, 2025 Posted August 7, 2025 7 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said: I think that's an incredibly optimistic percentage that assumes no future development on Varland's end Varland would have to go back to starting to provide more value than he's provided this season in the bullpen. There is little upside for Varland as a reliever. MGX 1
The Great Hambino Verified Member Posted August 7, 2025 Posted August 7, 2025 1 minute ago, DJL44 said: Varland would have to go back to starting to provide more value than he's provided this season in the bullpen. There is little upside for Varland as a reliever. I disagree. I think he showed closer potential this year. I might be higher on him than others, but that's not a Minnesotan bias. It's a wrestler bias. But that's neither here nor there TopGunn#22 and Danchat 2
NYCTK Verified Member Posted August 7, 2025 Posted August 7, 2025 3 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said: Those "fairly cheap" veterans are still more expensive than Varland. And it's not like his trade value was vanishing at the deadline. In fact, he could easily have had more value at future deadlines if he spent 2026 establishing himself as a closer, which I believe he has the stuff and mentality to do. They acted as if this was their last chance to recoup value on him We're just going to have to agree to disagree on Roden. I think that's an incredibly optimistic percentage that assumes no future development on Varland's end You seem to be assuming no further development for a 25 year old LF with fewer than 150 PAs, while assuming further development for a 27 year old RP with nearly 200 innings pitched. Do you see how you might not be viewing this entirely rationally?
terrydactyls Verified Member Posted August 7, 2025 Posted August 7, 2025 I think that the Stewart trade for Outman was based on a misconception made by the Pohlads. They thought they were trading for ownership of the Outlander TV series. 😁 glunn and TopGunn#22 2
The Great Hambino Verified Member Posted August 7, 2025 Posted August 7, 2025 4 minutes ago, NYCTK said: You seem to be assuming no further development for a 25 year old LF with fewer than 150 PAs, while assuming further development for a 27 year old RP with nearly 200 innings pitched. Do you see how you might not be viewing this entirely rationally? Convenient you leave out that the reliever is less than two years removed from converting from starter to reliever, and is the only one that has actually shown success at the major league level. I'm not assuming zero development from Roden, but you're ignoring that he has some catching up to do. Reasonable minds can differ, but spare me the lectures about rationality Danchat 1
NYCTK Verified Member Posted August 7, 2025 Posted August 7, 2025 7 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said: Convenient you leave out that the reliever is less than two years removed from converting from starter to reliever, and is the only one that has actually shown success at the major league level. I'm not assuming zero development from Roden, but you're ignoring that he has some catching up to do. Reasonable minds can differ, but spare me the lectures about rationality I left it out because I don't think it's at all relevant. Varland is getting the benefit of the doubt because he's "only" been a major league reliever for a calendar year, but Roden get's no such benefit despite being younger and less experienced. You seem to think Varland successfully converting to the bullpen is some sort of miracle and not a regular occurrence around the league. I'm glad he's figured out how to remain on a major league roster but a failed starter becoming a serviceable reliever is not anything new. I just think people aren't at all being rational about what Varland is, and what the return was. TL and MGX 2
Mike Sixel Old-Timey Member Posted August 7, 2025 Posted August 7, 2025 I'm going to grade them from easiest for me to grade, to hardest. I'm also going to use a 0 -100 spread, because A-F isn't big enough for the first one. Easy for me to grade: Brock Stewart to the Dodgers — Grade: negative 1 million (on a 0-100 scale) Return: OF James Outman Look, Outman is one of the 2000 best baseball players on the planet! That does not make him a MLB player. He's 28, in AAA, and can't beat Kiersey, Martin, or Gasper for a roster spot. He doesn't fit the present, or the future. Get an A ball pitcher with 1 pitch and try to make him a RP......but not a 28 yo you don't even think is a MLB player now. A truly baffling trade. Carlos Correa to the Astros — Grade: 75 Return: RHP Matt Mikulski, ~$70M in salary relief Whether they re-use the money or not, it was a good trade for the team from a business perspective, and likely even a baseball perspective. I loved the CC signing, but he's not been CC for a bit of time now, and I think this team is 1-3 years away from being good, so there was no place for him. This either makes the team easier to sell, gives them more payroll room for others, or just gives the Pohlads more money (thankfully, I was getting worried about their ability to even eat). Danny Coulombe to the Rangers — Grade: 65 Return: LHP Garrett Horn If they move Horn to the bullpen, teach him 2 pitches, and are aggressive, he could be in MN in 2027. This FO won't do that, they'll diddle around for 4 years trying to make him a starter....but I actually like this return for Danny. Chris Paddack & Randy Dobnak to the Tigers — Grade: 50 Return: C Enrique Jimenez I really hate they included a negative asset and reduced their return. But, that return was a catcher, and at some point if you throw enough pieces of spaghetti at the wall, one of them might stick. I'm giving this a fairly neutral grade, when maybe I should give it s 30-40? Maybe this should be in the next grouping? OTOH, I'm not sure how much value Paddack really had, so there's that. I'm not sure how to grade these: Harrison Bader to the Phillies — Grade: either a 20 or 85. Return: OF Hendry Mendez, RHP Geremy Villoria Mendez kind of excites me! But man, the scouting reports are not great. IMO, I'd move him to 1B or even catcher (? wut?), because he's not likely to play OF for this team given the other options they have. He's either going to hit, or just provide no value. As for Villoria? Who the F has any idea. I don't think there is much in between here. Either he hits and has value, or he has none. But they got them for an expiring deal on a guy that was going to be way too expensive for this ownership group to re-sign. Jhoan Duran to the Phillies — Grade: Incomplete Return: C Eduardo Tait, RHP Mick Abel I mean, sure, if you go by MLB.com, they got two top 100 guys. If you go by Fangrapsh, they got zero (but close). These two have the most upside of any of the guys they got. Huge, high, ceilings. But, man, the floors are also really low. Heck, one of them being really good and the other busting is possible. Both busting is possible. Both working is possible. Abel has great stuff, but can he harness it? Tait is a baby in A ball, those guys are so hard to predict. In other words, the TWins took all the risk here, while dealing their most valuable asset. I really DO NOT like that part of the deal. OTOH, they went for ceiling, not floor, and I LOVE that. Willi Castro to the Cubs — Grade: No idea Return: RHP Ryan Gallagher, RHP Sam Armstrong Neither of these guys does much for me, frankly. But I'm going to assume there is something here to like, or I don't get this one. I'd have preferred one guy with more upside, but whatever. I just don't have the energy to actually care about this one..... Griffin Jax to the Rays — Grade: 60 Return: RHP Taj Bradley Another trade that makes a lot of sense (on its own, I'm judging these deals on their own, as a group I don't like them). A RP for a potential SP. But, man, Bradley has struggled some.......but, ya, a RP for a potential SP, I can see how this makes sense. I think 60 might be generous, but I'm in a good mood after listening to KPOP Demon Hunters. Louis Varland & Ty France to the Blue Jays — Grade: 35 Return: LHP Kendry Rojas, OF Alan Roden I think Roden and Rojas have pretty good odds of being valuable to the Twins, so that's a plus. OTOH, Varland looks like a closer, with, what, five years of control? Plus, and this does matter to a lot of MN people, he's from MN. I actually think Roden replaces Larnach to start next year full time. I think he can hit and catch the ball. I think Rojas could be good, in some role. I just don't get trading a guy with this much control, unless you are insanely in love with what you got back, and I'm more in like. TopGunn#22 1
DJL44 Verified Member Posted August 7, 2025 Posted August 7, 2025 46 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said: I disagree. I think he showed closer potential this year. He wouldn't provide more value if they used him in the closer role versus the fireman role he had. It might even reduce his overall value to the team.
The Great Hambino Verified Member Posted August 7, 2025 Posted August 7, 2025 10 minutes ago, NYCTK said: I left it out because I don't think it's at all relevant. Varland is getting the benefit of the doubt because he's "only" been a major league reliever for a calendar year, but Roden get's no such benefit despite being younger and less experienced. You seem to think Varland successfully converting to the bullpen is some sort of miracle and not a regular occurrence around the league. I'm glad he's figured out how to remain on a major league roster but a failed starter becoming a serviceable reliever is not anything new. I just think people aren't at all being rational about what Varland is, and what the return was. Have you considered the possibility that disagreeing with you and being irrational are not the same thing? I am not saying that is a miracle. I've said nothing even remotely close to that. I've stated that is has already happened and therefore not some sort of projection. Of course it's relevant that one player's success at the MLB has already been shown and the other's is purely projection. You think Varland has peaked in value. I don't. That's a reasonable disagreement. I think Roden's ceiling is lower than you do. That's a reasonable disagreement. I'd feel differently if he could be a viable centerfielder, but my understanding is that's not in the cards. Rojas is the wild card that will ultimately determine the trade. But to act as if no one could possibly rationally disagree with you is ... well, it's something. TopGunn#22, Craig Arko and DocBauer 3
Reptevia Verified Member Posted August 7, 2025 Posted August 7, 2025 “The Duran trade only looks worse because of the Miller trade, otherwise everyone would be crowing about it.” Maybe, but it was a huge difference.
NYCTK Verified Member Posted August 7, 2025 Posted August 7, 2025 5 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said: Have you considered the possibility that disagreeing with you and being irrational are not the same thing? I am not saying that is a miracle. I've said nothing even remotely close to that. I've stated that is has already happened and therefore not some sort of projection. Of course it's relevant that one player's success at the MLB has already been shown and the other's is purely projection. You think Varland has peaked in value. I don't. That's a reasonable disagreement. I think Roden's ceiling is lower than you do. That's a reasonable disagreement. I'd feel differently if he could be a viable centerfielder, but my understanding is that's not in the cards. Rojas is the wild card that will ultimately determine the trade. But to act as if no one could possibly rationally disagree with you is ... well, it's something. What I said isn't rational is that you're seemingly expecting Varland to develop further but not allowing that same chance to the significantly younger and less experienced outfielder. Because it's not rational.
Mike Sixel Old-Timey Member Posted August 7, 2025 Posted August 7, 2025 4 minutes ago, Reptevia said: “The Duran trade only looks worse because of the Miller trade, otherwise everyone would be crowing about it.” Maybe, but it was a huge difference. You'd have to add a number 4 (though this year 5) starter (with 4 years of control) to Duran to get the deal. MGX 1
The Great Hambino Verified Member Posted August 7, 2025 Posted August 7, 2025 4 minutes ago, NYCTK said: What I said isn't rational is that you're seemingly expecting Varland to develop further but not allowing that same chance to the significantly younger and less experienced outfielder. Because it's not rational. I could just as easily say that you're not allowing for any further development from a pitcher whose role significantly changed not too long ago while expecting further development from someone who really isn't that much younger, all while not accounting for the fact that Varland is currently providing more value. If both players stagnate and don't develop any further, then Varland has much more value to give because he is already producing that value. Roden is currently producing none. He has to develop more just to catch up to Varland.
Steve Lein Twins Daily Contributor Posted August 7, 2025 Posted August 7, 2025 While I am in general disappointed by the overall returns the Twins got in all the trades, I do see somewhat of a vision. The reality of acquiring a bunch of pitchers, is the Twins probably re-tooled their bullpen for 2026 and beyond in the process of dismantling their good one from this season. Look at the history: Brock Stewart: Washed out as a starter in LA due to injuries. Became a real weapon in the bullpen with MN, but still dealt with injuries. Louie Varland: Failed starter. Blossomed in short stints. Jhoan Duran: Failed starter. Blossomed in short stints. Griffin Jax: Failed starter. Blossomed in short stints. Cole Sands: Failed starter. Has improved in short stints. The point of all these examples (and there are even more of them), is it is actually far more common for bullpen arms to come from pitchers who were good enough to get a chance at starting coming up and moving onto the lesser role once in the majors or close, then it is for a pure relief prospect doing so by coming up through the system. So theoretically for the future, the Twins have a rotation of Ryan, Lopez, Ober, Zebby, Festa, and Abel/SWR/Bradley in reserve. Prielipp. From everyone internally at the moment, the bullpen might be: Abel/SWR/Bradley, Funderburk, Ohl, Raya, Sands, Morris, Adams, [fill-in-the-blank]. Prielipp. Prielipp, Rojas, Horn, Gallagher, Bradley, Lewis, MacLeod I could all see as ending up in the same type of transition as well. Just something to think about. Strombomb, DocBauer, jorgenswest and 2 others 5
Mike Sixel Old-Timey Member Posted August 7, 2025 Posted August 7, 2025 4 minutes ago, Steve Lein said: While I am in general disappointed by the overall returns the Twins got in all the trades, I do see somewhat of a vision. The reality of acquiring a bunch of pitchers, is the Twins probably re-tooled their bullpen for 2026 and beyond in the process of dismantling their good one from this season. Look at the history: Brock Stewart: Washed out as a starter in LA due to injuries. Became a real weapon in the bullpen with MN, but still dealt with injuries. Louie Varland: Failed starter. Blossomed in short stints. Jhoan Duran: Failed starter. Blossomed in short stints. Griffin Jax: Failed starter. Blossomed in short stints. Cole Sands: Failed starter. Has improved in short stints. The point of all these examples (and there are even more of them), is it is actually far more common for bullpen arms to come from pitchers who were good enough to get a chance at starting coming up and moving onto the lesser role once in the majors or close, then it is for a pure relief prospect doing so by coming up through the system. So theoretically for the future, the Twins have a rotation of Ryan, Lopez, Ober, Zebby, Festa, and Abel/SWR/Bradley in reserve. Prielipp. From everyone internally at the moment, the bullpen might be: Abel/SWR/Bradley, Funderburk, Ohl, Raya, Sands, Morris, Adams, [fill-in-the-blank]. Prielipp. Prielipp, Rojas, Horn, Gallagher, Bradley, Lewis, MacLeod I could all see as ending up in the same type of transition as well. Just something to think about. Sure, but it took 2-3 years to build.....I think we all see the vision. The other thing it requires is making the decision next year....not in 2-3 years. That's been an issue for this FO, imo. Waiting too long to move guys (Jax and Varland were never going to be successful starters). Rod Carews Birthday, Steve Lein and Danchat 3
mnfireman Verified Member Posted August 7, 2025 Posted August 7, 2025 25 minutes ago, Reptevia said: “The Duran trade only looks worse because of the Miller trade, otherwise everyone would be crowing about it.” Maybe, but it was a huge difference. Sears was demoted to AAA by the Padres, looks like a little overpay depending on how long he is the minors
Mike Sixel Old-Timey Member Posted August 7, 2025 Posted August 7, 2025 9 minutes ago, mnfireman said: Sears was demoted to AAA by the Padres, looks like a little overpay depending on how long he is the minors Interesting! He was basically a number 4 the two years before....but really struggled this year.
NYCTK Verified Member Posted August 7, 2025 Posted August 7, 2025 10 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said: I could just as easily say that you're not allowing for any further development from a pitcher whose role significantly changed not too long ago while expecting further development from someone who really isn't that much younger, all while not accounting for the fact that Varland is currently providing more value. If both players stagnate and don't develop any further, then Varland has much more value to give because he is already producing that value. Roden is currently producing none. He has to develop more just to catch up to Varland. I don't know why I'd expect the failed starter turned RP to develop more than he already has, being in the job full-time a season now. Even if he took great steps forward there's simply not much higher he can go. He can become Griffin Jax. But he can just as easily become Cole Sands. Alan Roden could be nothing, but he could also be a 3.5 WAR player, like Lew Ford. A team like the Twins is much better served by gambling on a player like Roden than a player like Varland. And this is all ignoring Rojas. The Twins did well with this trade.
old nurse Verified Member Posted August 7, 2025 Posted August 7, 2025 In 2018 Tom Froeming wrote this: Twins give: Eduardo Escobar Twins get: OF Ernie De La Trinidad, RHP Jhoan Duran, OF Gabriel Maciel Tom’s grade: B Twins give: Ryan Pressly Twins get: RHP Jorge Alcala, OF Gilberto Celestino Tom’s grade: A Twins give: Lance Lynn Twins get: Tyler Austin, Luis Rijo Tom’s grade: A Twins give: Brian Dozier Twins get: 2B Logan Forsythe, OF/1B Luke Raley, LHP Devin Smeltzer Tom’s grade: D Twins give: Zach Duke Twins get: RHP Chase De Jong, 1B/3B Ryan Costello Tom’s grade: C One out of 5 grades was accurate. I tried to link the story, sorry. Riverbrian, Mike Sixel, Strombomb and 1 other 2 1 1
Rosterman Verified Member Posted August 7, 2025 Posted August 7, 2025 I was surprised that the penny-pinching Pohlads would end up writing a check to Houston to take a player that they never should've signed in the first place. Usually you take "bad" salary back from the other team, especially if they wish to remain below certain league guidelines for spending. Like do take on the Walker contract if you must, you MIGHT at least get also some on-field return, plus you have a player that you could still, perhaps, move. I was hoping they could pry loose Lance McCullers and his $17.5 contract, as well as the remaining salary from this season, maybe only absorbing out of their own pocketbook the remainder of Correa's 2025 salary at worst. That the player they took needs a 40-man spot, is all-over-the-place in his throwing, and still at High-A. Plus...26? I'm totally surprised Ryan and Larnach aren't also gone, not to mention figuring out what they could get for the injured Lopez, who will surely depart in the off-season. They got three hopefully sold starters to fight it out over the next year with the half-dozen other 25-26 year olds the Twins have in the pipeline. They got three outfielders who probably fall behind three homegrown guys (and Gonzales) who will be pushing Wallner and Larnach elsewhere hext season. Go figrue that. Sometimes you go for lower minor league promise rather than taking on the contgracts of players other teams would probably be jettisoning anyways in the off-season. Hey, anyone notice: except for Ryan, the Twins no longer have pitchers that depend on the strikeout!
LA Vikes Fan Verified Member Posted August 7, 2025 Posted August 7, 2025 I agree with the OP with the exception of his grades on the Jax and Varland deals. I think this whole Board way overrates Jax. He's a 30 year-old failed starter having a pretty mediocre year who is a good late inning reliver but whose history has shown us he cannot close games. Taj Bradley much younger, has a chance to be a solid mid rotation starter, and has an even higher chance of being a solid reliever. I think you make that deal any time. The Varland trade hurts emotionally but I think on the baseball merits is much closer to a B or a B-. By the way, I think the Duran trade is an A or A-. Stop with the whining, it's a better deal than what the As got for Mason Miller, particularly when the A's threw in a starting pitcher. One that makes no sense of course is trading Stewart for Outman. The funny thing is, the blogs here in LA question why we would trade a young guy who was third in the ROY voting two years ago for a guy whose arm falls off after 35 innings every season. Just a head scratcher in both directions frankly. I think both fan bases overvalue what they traded and undervalue what they got. Strombomb, TL and MGX 3
Riverbrian Old-Timey Member Posted August 7, 2025 Posted August 7, 2025 10 minutes ago, old nurse said: In 2018 Tom Froeming wrote this: Twins give: Eduardo Escobar Twins get: OF Ernie De La Trinidad, RHP Jhoan Duran, OF Gabriel Maciel Tom’s grade: B Twins give: Ryan Pressly Twins get: RHP Jorge Alcala, OF Gilberto Celestino Tom’s grade: A Twins give: Lance Lynn Twins get: Tyler Austin, Luis Rijo Tom’s grade: A Twins give: Brian Dozier Twins get: 2B Logan Forsythe, OF/1B Luke Raley, LHP Devin Smeltzer Tom’s grade: D Twins give: Zach Duke Twins get: RHP Chase De Jong, 1B/3B Ryan Costello Tom’s grade: C Sorry the comments section just wouldn’t let me put in the link. One out of 5 grades was accurate. You and I have been through this before. Myself... I'll grade the trades later. When the actual term papers are finished. That's when you get the red marker out and put down a C- on it. This patient assessment approach has improved my March Madness bracket accuracy to perfection. I never get a game wrong when I fill out my brackets. It's easy to do... just stay patient and wait until the game is over before declaring a winner. It's nice because I don't have to get into silly arguments with anyone who thinks passionately that Louisville is going to wipe the floor with Wyoming. Mike Sixel and MGX 2
Steve Lein Twins Daily Contributor Posted August 7, 2025 Posted August 7, 2025 1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said: Sure, but it took 2-3 years to build.....I think we all see the vision. The other thing it requires is making the decision next year....not in 2-3 years. That's been an issue for this FO, imo. Waiting too long to move guys (Jax and Varland were never going to be successful starters). I don't disagree with you there!
old nurse Verified Member Posted August 7, 2025 Posted August 7, 2025 15 minutes ago, Rosterman said: I was surprised that the penny-pinching Pohlads would end up writing a check to Houston to take a player that they never should've signed in the first place. Usually you take "bad" salary back from the other team, especially if they wish to remain below certain league guidelines for spending. Like do take on the Walker contract if you must, you MIGHT at least get also some on-field return, plus you have a player that you could still, perhaps, move. I was hoping they could pry loose Lance McCullers and his $17.5 contract, as well as the remaining salary from this season, maybe only absorbing out of their own pocketbook the remainder of Correa's 2025 salary at worst. That the player they took needs a 40-man spot, is all-over-the-place in his throwing, and still at High-A. Plus...26? I'm totally surprised Ryan and Larnach aren't also gone, not to mention figuring out what they could get for the injured Lopez, who will surely depart in the off-season. They got three hopefully sold starters to fight it out over the next year with the half-dozen other 25-26 year olds the Twins have in the pipeline. They got three outfielders who probably fall behind three homegrown guys (and Gonzales) who will be pushing Wallner and Larnach elsewhere hext season. Go figrue that. Sometimes you go for lower minor league promise rather than taking on the contgracts of players other teams would probably be jettisoning anyways in the off-season. Hey, anyone notice: except for Ryan, the Twins no longer have pitchers that depend on the strikeout! Last year both Ober and Lopez were i the top 30 starting pitchers for K%. Festa and Mathew’s are well above league average. The asking price for Ryan was likely higher than what Crochet or Cease was traded for. No team would meet that price. Larnach is not having the kind of season a pennant contender would add as help for a playff push. Bader was far more valuable as defense and CF
Riverbrian Old-Timey Member Posted August 7, 2025 Posted August 7, 2025 1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said: Sure, but it took 2-3 years to build.....I think we all see the vision. The other thing it requires is making the decision next year....not in 2-3 years. That's been an issue for this FO, imo. Waiting too long to move guys (Jax and Varland were never going to be successful starters). It doesn't have to take 2-3 years to build. Turn all the faucets on. See what produces water. Replace the faucet that isn't producing water. MGX 1
Doc Lenz Verified Member Posted August 7, 2025 Posted August 7, 2025 3 hours ago, NYCTK said: The fact that you can replace Varland for relatively cheap is another reason the trade happened. Phil Maton only got a $2M contract this last offseason. Ryne Stanek $4.5M. Kyle Finnegan $6M. You can find valuable arms on the FA market for fairly cheap. Not to mention the failed starters in your own system. So, while it's nice to have Varland on a league min contract for multiple years, it's simply not as valuable as having a SP or a LF at that same price. Honestly, I can see the Twins "winning" this trade in terms of excess value on Roden alone. I wouldn't bet on it, but I can see a 20% chance of that. Add in Rojas and this was a very good baseball trade. Agree 100%. Much easier to rebuild a bullpen than any other group. There are many many folks here that have decided Roden is terrible. Wonder why they aren’t scouting for major league teams. Might be a good idea to let it play out. LA Vikes Fan, Strombomb, MGX and 2 others 4 1
DJL44 Verified Member Posted August 7, 2025 Posted August 7, 2025 1 hour ago, Steve Lein said: The point of all these examples (and there are even more of them), is it is actually far more common for bullpen arms to come from pitchers who were good enough to get a chance at starting coming up and moving onto the lesser role once in the majors or close, then it is for a pure relief prospect doing so by coming up through the system. So theoretically for the future, the Twins have a rotation of Ryan, Lopez, Ober, Zebby, Festa, and Abel/SWR/Bradley in reserve. Prielipp. From everyone internally at the moment, the bullpen might be: Abel/SWR/Bradley, Funderburk, Ohl, Raya, Sands, Morris, Adams, [fill-in-the-blank]. Prielipp. Prielipp, Rojas, Horn, Gallagher, Bradley, Lewis, MacLeod I could all see as ending up in the same type of transition as well. Just something to think about. Bailey Ober might be the one to move to the bullpen. His velocity is down and his effectiveness has gone down with it. Put him in the bullpen, recover the 2 MPH he lost on his fastball, and he might thrive. Strombomb and Doc Lenz 2
Steve Lein Twins Daily Contributor Posted August 7, 2025 Posted August 7, 2025 3 minutes ago, DJL44 said: Bailey Ober might be the one to move to the bullpen. His velocity is down and his effectiveness has gone down with it. Put him in the bullpen, recover the 2 MPH he lost on his fastball, and he might thrive. He might be an interesting case in the way you frame it. But, the difference with him is he has been dominating as a starter at times after they seemingly maxed out his repertoire (remember, he didn't even throw 90 coming up through the system). He has two 3 WAR seasons as a starter, which is firmly in playoff starter territory. He's finished top 5 in MLB for WHIP twice. I just don't think he's a very good candidate to do this with. If he's right, he's without question a starter. And a good one. LA Vikes Fan 1
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