Jayson Stark: Phillies Eyeing Griffin Jax After Jhoan Duran Talks Stall

[Matthew Taylor]

The Phillies have reportedly pivoted from Jhoan Duran to Griffin Jax in their search for bullpen help, according to Jayson Stark in a radio interview with 97.5 The Fanatic in Philadelphia.

According to Stark, talks between the Twins and Phillies regarding Duran hit a snag when Minnesota asked for top Phillies pitching prospect Andrew Painter in return. Painter is currently ranked as the number eight prospect in baseball by Baseball America, and Philadelphia has been unwilling to put him on the table. As a result, this has led them to refocus on Jax, whom they may view as more attainable.

Jax has taken a step back this year in terms of ERA and Win Probability Added, but his underlying metrics paint a different picture. His strikeout and walk rates remain strong, and advanced numbers like xERA suggest he’s been pitching better than the results indicate. He’s been snakebitten by some poor luck, not regression in stuff or command.

Jax remains under team control through 2027 and has been a high-leverage staple for the past three seasons. Trading him would be a notable blow to the bullpen depth, but if the return is meaningful, it could be the right move.

Would you move Jax in the right deal? Should the Twins keep pressing for a Painter/Duran deal? Drop your thoughts below.

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[Brock Beauchamp]

It takes some real balls to ask for Andrew Painter in a deal for a reliever.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

10 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

It takes some real balls to ask for Andrew Painter in a deal for a reliever.

Yes it does.  But I like that they’re aiming in the right direction — upward!

[Cory Engelhardt]

18 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

It takes some real balls to ask for Andrew Painter in a deal for a reliever.

It should be the initial ask. Doesn't mean that's the red line, but good that was the ask.

[SteveLV]

Also, we have no idea what other Teams are offering.  Could be Painter would be needed to beat those offers in the eyes of the Twins FO.

[Dman]

I understand the ask for Painter.  They have some highly rated players, but to me they have plenty of warts too.

I don't see Miller as a great fit with Culpepper and Houston on the way. Culpepper might have the better bat and better defensive skillset as well.

I like Crawford but there are questions as to whether he will hit for Home run power.  Granted he hits the ball harder than Martin, but would he somewhat face the same same fate?  He also hits the ball on the ground at a very high rate.  Those things might be fixable he is only 21 at AAA, but he is not without risk as he moves to MLB.

Tait is an 18 year old catcher with a good hit tool and a ton of power. Not great defensively yet. So ton's of risk in that kind of profile even though he is a top 100 prospect. Still another super high risk prospect.

Escobar looks like a real nice bat and solid player but he is yet another second baseman.  The Twins have too many of those already,

So yeah I can see why they asked for a more sure thing in Painter. Its one of the few things Philly can offer that might make a difference.

[tony&rodney]

The Phillies need players. They could use any or all of Castro, Bader, Coulombe, and a relief pitcher like Jax or Duran. They would become the favorites with the right moves. They lose in the playoffs without a couple of additions. Worse, they have a number of valuable players on expiring contracts too. Rock and hard place for Philly. Yes, much better place than our Twins but they need to make something happen.

[TNtwins85]

26 minutes ago, SteveLV said:

Also, we have no idea what other Teams are offering.  Could be Painter would be needed to beat those offers in the eyes of the Twins FO.

That’s the hope!!!

[bunsen82]

58 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

It takes some real balls to ask for Andrew Painter in a deal for a reliever.

This shows you the position the Twins are in.  They are in a massive position of strength.  The Phillies don't like the way negotiations are going with Duran so they pivot . . . to Jax   🤣.  It really sucks when the next best reliever is with the same Team you just thought was overvaluing Duran.  Because the Twins are going to take a significantly less return for Jax when they have already stated they view them as equals.  The teams continue to engage the Twins because they know Jax, Duran, and Ryan are the best available.  Somebody is going to meet Falvey's price on 1 of the 2 relievers.  I am really hoping we get a deal on Ryan as well, but that one is much more iffy.  The cost is higher, and Ryan is likely be shopped at nearly his peak value.  

The trade calculator has Painter at double value for Duran.  I do wonder if a bigger trade is possible with them.   

[Steve Lein]

Yeah, Painter is too big of an ask for Duran or Jax. Maybe Juran and Dax, but I don't think Painter is actually on the table, even if it were for Joe Ryan.

I like Mick Abel, but a deal needs Crawford or Miller then, too. Maybe Tait, but he's so far away I wouldn't target him. Miller should be much lower than he is on some lists right now too, because he has hit the double-A wall and has now played almost a full season's worth of games there. Jean Cabrera is another pitcher in their system I'd have some interest in.

I'd be happy with Jax for Abel and Crawford/Miller. Not for Duran.

Edited July 30, 2025 by Steve Lein

[Dman]

8 minutes ago, Steve Lein said:

Yeah, Painter is too big of an ask for Duran or Jax. Maybe Juran and Dax, but I don't think Painter is actually on the table, even if it were for Joe Ryan.

I like Mick Abel, but a deal needs Crawford or Miller then, too. Maybe Tait, but he's so far away I wouldn't target him. Miller should be much lower than he is on some right now too, because he has hit the double-A wall and has now played almost a full season's worth of games there. Jean Cabrera is another pitcher in their system I'd have some interest in.

I'd be happy with Jax for Abel and Crawford/Miller. Not for Duran.

Yeah I think Abel, Crawford gets it done.  Crawford has All Star upside if he ends up hitting in the air more  Abel has maybe mid rotation upside but likely 5th starter and or at Least really good bullpen arm.  That is a solid overpay.  I could see that deal happening.

[bunsen82]

The current update on Duran is stating things are moving pretty fast and a deal may be done by the end of the day.  If they are getting something in return comparable to Painter,  holy cow.    The other mention,  is that basically the entire bullpen is up for trade, I really wonder how its going to work.  Duran, Jax, Varland, Stewart, and Coloumbe.   Thats crazy.   Will we have to trade for relievers if we trade away a large chunk?  

[Dman]

1 minute ago, bunsen82 said:

The current update on Duran is stating things are moving pretty fast and a deal may be done by the end of the day.  If they are getting something in return comparable to Painter,  holy cow.    The other mention,  is that basically the entire bullpen is up for trade, I really wonder how its going to work.  Duran, Jax, Varland, Stewart, and Coloumbe.   Thats crazy.   Will we have to trade for relievers if we trade away a large chunk?  

If they are trading a lot of players they will get back plenty of relief arm prospects in those deals.  They will also have the offseason to add arms and they could also move Prielipp, Raya, Ohl or others to the pen next year if they want to.

It might not be a super strong pen next year depending on how many arms they trade, but I assume they will have higher upside position players and possibly more arms in these deals to reshape the team. We'll see how things look on Thursday night.

I can't see them moving Varland as that would be a very steep price for another team to pay.

[tony&rodney]

Believe it when it is done. 

The national writers need to create stories. Yes, they hear  .... "is interested ...."

[bunsen82]

5 minutes ago, Dman said:

If they are trading a lot of players they will get back plenty of relief arm prospects in those deals.  They will also have the offseason to add arms and they could also move Prielipp, Raya, Ohl or others to the pen next year if they want to.

It might not be a super strong pen next year depending on how many arms they trade, but I assume they will have higher upside position players and possibly more arms in these deals to reshape the team. We'll see how things look on Thursday night.

I can't see them moving Varland as that would be a very steep price for another team to pay.

If you have teams drastically willing to overpay,  I can see why the Twins would be open for sale.   Yesterdays game appeared they were willing to take the loss,  today as well.  Right now you just don't want anyone to have an injury.   My guess is we will begin to start to see some movement later this afternoon to tonight.  At the start of this I had the over under at 2 1/2 trades.  Right now I think you would have to put it at 4-5 trades.  Bader and Castro,  likely Duran . . . then who else are they willing to move.   This is starting to look a bit like a firesale,  except they are getting premium prices in return.  

[bunsen82]

18 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Believe it when it is done. 

The national writers need to create stories. Yes, they hear  .... "is interested ...."

You have 3 different reporters stating the same thing.  Nightengale, Feisand and Heyman.  There is obviously smoke here.  

[Danchat]

A notable blurb from MLBTradeRumors:

Quote

2:16pm: USA Today’s Bob Nightengale also writes that there’s a good chance of Duran being moved before the end of the day. Nightengale adds that the Twins have held out for top pitching prospect Andrew Painter in conversations with the Phillies. Philadelphia has been steadfast in not wanting to move Painter in prior trade discussions. It’s a big ask on Minnesota’s part, but that reflects Duran’s affordable control window. Passan had reported last week that the Twins wanted multiple top 100 caliber prospects for either Duran or Jax.

2:07pm: The likelihood of a Jhoan Duran trade seems to be rising. Jon Heyman of The New York Post suggested this afternoon that Minnesota’s talks with other teams on the star closer are “heating up.” Mark Feinsand of MLB.com hears similarly and adds that the Twins could have an agreement on a Duran deal later today.

The Mariners and Yankees have been loosely tied to his market in recent days. Heyman reports that the Phillies and Red Sox are strongly involved and adds the Mets as another team that has at least shown some interest. Jon Morosi of MLB Network adds that the Twins have had conversations with the Dodgers concerning each of Duran, Griffin Jax and Louis Varland. The Blue Jays, Rangers and Padres are among the teams also known to be exploring the market for high-leverage bullpen help — though none has been linked to Duran specifically.

Even Varland is getting talked about, even though the odds feel low on him getting moved. Seems like teams are lining up to get a slice of our bullpen. I don't know who is going to be traded or not, but if any of these non-rentals do, it's going to be for a high price due to the reported demand they're fetching.

[Greglw3]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

It takes some real balls to ask for Andrew Painter in a deal for a reliever.

Painter has about a 4.6 ERA in AAA. Odds he ever becomes a pitcher of Duran’s stature, with career 2.4 ERA???

Interesting also that Phillies balked and pivoted to Jax just as Jax was taken out for Clemens with runners on base and nobody out. Clemens lobs the ball in and the runs score, ballooning his ERA to 4.50. Jax seemed visibly angry and who knows, Rocco may have just cost the Twins some nice rebuilding pieces.

I think the Twins should be looking for hitters given their mediocre, at best offense the last 5 years, which has crippled their chances, including this season. I would have been asking for Crawford, Aidan Miller, and A ball prospect.

[bunsen82]

1 minute ago, Greglw3 said:

Painter has about a 4.6 ERA in AAA. Odds he ever becomes a pitcher of Duran’s stature, with career 2.4 ERA???

Interesting also that Phillies balked and pivoted to Jax just as Jax was taken out for Clemens with runners on base and nobody out. Clemens lobs the ball in and the runs score, ballooning his ERA to 4.50. Jax seemed visibly angry and who knows, Rocco may have just cost the Twins some nice rebuilding pieces.

I think the Twins should be looking for hitters given their mediocre, at best offense the last 5 years, which has crippled their chances, including this season. I would have been asking for Crawford, Aidan Miller, and A ball prospect.

Putting in Jax today was beyond stupid.  At least he didn't get hurt.   It is looking more and more like we are going to see a total tear down in the next 24 hours.   We will see what pieces we are left with,  and what new pieces are here.  

[tony&rodney]

Does anyone think Wallner, Larnach, Keirsey Jr., France, Vazquez, Clemens, and Gasper would even draw a lottery ticket in return? That leaves Jeffers, Lee, Lewis, Correa, and Buxton as MLB players on the roster. Bader and Castro are gone.

[notoriousgod71]

1 hour ago, bunsen82 said:

The current update on Duran is stating things are moving pretty fast and a deal may be done by the end of the day.  If they are getting something in return comparable to Painter,  holy cow.    The other mention,  is that basically the entire bullpen is up for trade, I really wonder how its going to work.  Duran, Jax, Varland, Stewart, and Coloumbe.   Thats crazy.   Will we have to trade for relievers if we trade away a large chunk?  

I wouldn't get too excited. Falvey probably immediately went from painter to the corpse of Darren Daulton.

[Vanimal46]

25 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Does anyone think Wallner, Larnach, Keirsey Jr., France, Vazquez, Clemens, and Gasper would even draw a lottery ticket in return? That leaves Jeffers, Lee, Lewis, Correa, and Buxton as MLB players on the roster. Bader and Castro are gone.

I would try with Larnach. Don’t expect a mind boggling return, but it’s worth the try. Maybe tacking him onto an existing trade proposal. 

[GeorgeLooney]

25 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Does anyone think Wallner, Larnach, Keirsey Jr., France, Vazquez, Clemens, and Gasper would even draw a lottery ticket in return? That leaves Jeffers, Lee, Lewis, Correa, and Buxton as MLB players on the roster. Bader and Castro are gone.

I would find a way to move Correa….any means necessary - he doesn’t seem to have any fire left to play baseball and he is only 30. I would be talking to Buxton too. He would fetch a huge haul if we could move him to New York.

[GeorgeLooney]

3 minutes ago, GeorgeLooney said:

I would find a way to move Correa….any means necessary - he doesn’t seem to have any fire left to play baseball and he is only 30. I would be talking to Buxton too. He would fetch a huge haul if we could move him to New York.

Also I am aware of the no trade clause 

[Steve Lein]

Well... 34-year old rental Tyler Rogers was just dealt for what I'd call a massive overpay... so I'm not so sure Painter is off any tables for Duran 👀

[weitz41]

BUT, throw say Morris in the mix, and they add in a couple lottery tickets and maybe you can get an upper end starter for a dominate reliever and a possible starter. It could happen. Clocks ticking on the Phillies window.

[weitz41]

40 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Does anyone think Wallner, Larnach, Keirsey Jr., France, Vazquez, Clemens, and Gasper would even draw a lottery ticket in return? That leaves Jeffers, Lee, Lewis, Correa, and Buxton as MLB players on the roster. Bader and Castro are gone.

I think you may be a bit too far down on the current Twins players. Wallner, Larnach and possibly Clemens should all get more to much more than a lottery ticket.  The rest that'd be nice to get a ticket out of.

[tony&rodney]

1 minute ago, weitz41 said:

I think you may be a bit too far down on the current Twins players. Wallner, Larnach and possibly Clemens should all get more to much more than a lottery ticket.  The rest that'd be nice to get a ticket out of.

I am. I'm tired of watching DH only types in the outfield. I'm tired of guys who are not aware of the game they are playing in. I'm tired of guys who cannot run. Wallner and Larnach would never have a uniform on my team. I have no idea what they are like as human beings. I will accept they work very hard and are excellent people. They interest me in the same fashion as Giancarlo Stanton and he hits bombs too. When I see how hard Trevor Story (big contract), Jarren Duran (still in arbitration), and Roman Anthony (raw rookie) play, hustling all out on every play .... yes, I get down on the jogging Twins.

[Cory Engelhardt]

18 minutes ago, Steve Lein said:

Well... 34-year old rental Tyler Rogers was just dealt for what I'd call a massive overpay... so I'm not so sure Painter is off any tables for Duran 👀

Shows how much waste it is to make deals on the baseballtradevalues site.

 

Tyler Rogers was worth 0.2 on there. He received 26.8 back in value. 

Duran is going to bring a HAUL based on that site I imagine.

[weitz41]

2 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I am. I'm tired of watching DH only types in the outfield. I'm tired of guys who are not aware of the game they are playing in. I'm tired of guys who cannot run. Wallner and Larnach would never have a uniform on my team. I have no idea what they are like as human beings. I will accept they work very hard and are excellent people. They interest me in the same fashion as Giancarlo Stanton and he hits bombs too. When I see how hard Trevor Story (big contract), Jarren Duran (still in arbitration), and Roman Anthony (raw rookie) play, hustling all out on every play .... yes, I get down on the jogging Twins.

Great point. VERY hard or argue with. My only defense is I'll take Kyle Schwarber as a Twin over idk... Anthony Volpe. 10 time out of 10. But I am cherry picking there.