Dodgers Calling On Jhoan Duran And Griffin Jax

[jorgenswest]

35 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

The idea that trading one RP is giving up for three years is absurd. Milwaukee traded Burnes and didn't quit.

True and I agree about your point on giving up. I am sure they won’t give up.

Milwaukee kept Burnes for 5 of the 6 years of his service time. They gave themselves 5 years to have him on their playoff roster. They went to the playoffs that fifth year and then cashed in. It would be my argument that the Twins should not give up those three years and that the sweet spot is either next deadline or if they are contending that following offseason. Trading with this much control is really early. Are there many comps of all star level starters or closers traded with this level of control?

I really feel that the Twins managed Berrios perfectly. They traded at the deadline in a season they clearly would not make the playoffs giving up that one additional year of control. They received prospects that have a Fangraphs FV of 55 and 50. Martin was the 55 and hasn’t fulfilled that promise of an everyday player. Woods Richardson looks like he might match that FV of a 4th starter. They then followed up the next winter by taking in the contract of Sonny Gray. They ended up with the two prospects and the starter that was at least as capable as Berrios. Brilliantly done. I wish Martin had worked out but more often than not players don’t reach that future value.

There are so many reasons to wait a year. I can only think of two good reasons to seek a trade now and take the best they can get. One reason would be they foresee an injury to Duran. The other is someone blows them away with a deal that Baseball Trade Value says won’t work. I need one of the top 10 prospects in baseball plus more to make this deal. The Dodgers can make that kind of deal. If someone doesn’t really blow them away for an A+ deal then they need to wait. Let the new owner decide next deadline which direction they want to take this franchise. If no new owner by then at least they will have given themselves one more year to contend with an elite closer.

[Mike Sixel]

48 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

True and I agree about your point on giving up. I am sure they won’t give up.

Milwaukee kept Burnes for 5 of the 6 years of his service time. They gave themselves 5 years to have him on their playoff roster. They went to the playoffs that fifth year and then cashed in. It would be my argument that the Twins should not give up those three years and that the sweet spot is either next deadline or if they are contending that following offseason. Trading with this much control is really early. Are there many comps of all star level starters or closers traded with this level of control?

I really feel that the Twins managed Berrios perfectly. They traded at the deadline in a season they clearly would not make the playoffs giving up that one additional year of control. They received prospects that have a Fangraphs FV of 55 and 50. Martin was the 55 and hasn’t fulfilled that promise of an everyday player. Woods Richardson looks like he might match that FV of a 4th starter. They then followed up the next winter by taking in the contract of Sonny Gray. They ended up with the two prospects and the starter that was at least as capable as Berrios. Brilliantly done. I wish Martin had worked out but more often than not players don’t reach that future value.

There are so many reasons to wait a year. I can only think of two good reasons to seek a trade now and take the best they can get. One reason would be they foresee an injury to Duran. The other is someone blows them away with a deal that Baseball Trade Value says won’t work. I need one of the top 10 prospects in baseball plus more to make this deal. The Dodgers can make that kind of deal. If someone doesn’t really blow them away for an A+ deal then they need to wait. Let the new owner decide next deadline which direction they want to take this franchise. If no new owner by then at least they will have given themselves one more year to contend with an elite closer.

Sure, I'm not arguing to trade him this year, or not to. 

[tony&rodney]

I'm not sure if this was talked about enough. The Cubs traded Gleybar Torres to the Yankees for a half season of Aroldis Chapman. Torres was a 65 top ranked prospect. Roman Anthony is the only current player with a ranking that high. 

The decision is on the shoulders of teams like LAD, Philly, CHC, TOR, BOS, Baltimore(not an expected player), and others. The price should be high. Prospects crash all the time and there are several teams that really need Duran or Jax. The Twins could really boost their talent in the next 10 days. I sure hope so. If I was a fan of several of those teams seeking a closer, I would be a little put off if steps were not taken to acquire one.

 

[SF Twins Fan]

With the Dodgers I think it's Rushing plus two additional top 100 prospects at a minimum to make the deal.  Duran has basically three years of control left, so the return needs to be extra.

People keep talking about River Ryan, but that's a very big gamble.  He had tommy john surgery last August, so likely won't pitch until next season.  Who knows if he comes back from that.

I'd want Rushing plus someone like Eduardo Quintero and then another prospect.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

2 minutes ago, SF Twins Fan said:

With the Dodgers I think it's Rushing plus two additional top 100 prospects at a minimum to make the deal.  Duran has basically three years of control left, so the return needs to be extra.

People keep talking about River Ryan, but that's a very big gamble.  He had tommy john surgery last August, so likely won't pitch until next season.  Who knows if he comes back from that.

I'd want Rushing plus someone like Eduardo Quintero and then another prospect.

I’d take that deal in a second.  So would the Twins.  The Dodgers, however, would not. 

[twinstalker]

On 7/20/2025 at 8:58 PM, Mike Sixel said:

Rushing or Ferris.....

Why?  Dodgers would love to trade Rushing.

Rushing is an old non-catching prospect who has benefited from the Dodger minor league parks.  The one park that isn't a bandbox or in a bandbox league, he batted .228 and was incredibly passive at the plate.  A seriously overrated prospect who's already in the process of moving off catcher.  Ferris walks too many, doesn't strike out enough for the walks, etc.  He's a far better get than Rushing, but I don't want Ferris as the main piece.

They need to get Eduardo Quintero, a fantastic CF who's ready for A+ ball.  There's also Emil Morales, who strikes out way too much right now but is an OF power hitter of the future.  He's 18 in the ACL.  I worry Twins wouldn't know how to help him.

But Quintero is the man, and then they should get the best pitcher they can.  If that's Ferris, fine.  Rushing would be a slug of mediocrity.

 

[SF Twins Fan]

4 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I’d take that deal in a second.  So would the Twins.  The Dodgers, however, would not. 

Then they don't get an all star quality closer with basically three years of control.  Look at what the return was last season for Tanner Scott who's contract expired at the end of the season.  The Dodgers would be getting two addtional years of control, so the return needs to be significantly more.

[TheLeviathan]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

True and I agree about your point on giving up. I am sure they won’t give up.

Milwaukee kept Burnes for 5 of the 6 years of his service time. They gave themselves 5 years to have him on their playoff roster. They went to the playoffs that fifth year and then cashed in. It would be my argument that the Twins should not give up those three years and that the sweet spot is either next deadline or if they are contending that following offseason. Trading with this much control is really early. Are there many comps of all star level starters or closers traded with this level of control?

I really feel that the Twins managed Berrios perfectly. They traded at the deadline in a season they clearly would not make the playoffs giving up that one additional year of control. They received prospects that have a Fangraphs FV of 55 and 50. Martin was the 55 and hasn’t fulfilled that promise of an everyday player. Woods Richardson looks like he might match that FV of a 4th starter. They then followed up the next winter by taking in the contract of Sonny Gray. They ended up with the two prospects and the starter that was at least as capable as Berrios. Brilliantly done. I wish Martin had worked out but more often than not players don’t reach that future value.

There are so many reasons to wait a year. I can only think of two good reasons to seek a trade now and take the best they can get. One reason would be they foresee an injury to Duran. The other is someone blows them away with a deal that Baseball Trade Value says won’t work. I need one of the top 10 prospects in baseball plus more to make this deal. The Dodgers can make that kind of deal. If someone doesn’t really blow them away for an A+ deal then they need to wait. Let the new owner decide next deadline which direction they want to take this franchise. If no new owner by then at least they will have given themselves one more year to contend with an elite closer.

All fair points but there are some things worth countering with:

* The Brewers waiting as long as they did....seriously hurt the return they got.  Team control has a lot of value in baseball, so if you wait to make decisions until the clock is running out, you have to factor that into your return no matter how talented the player is.

* The Twins don't have to suspect an injury for any particular reason....Duran is a hard thrower.  Guys like him often, eventually, get hurt.  Throw in the fluctuation we often see in relievers and there are valid reasons to wonder how long he can stay at this level.  Think back to this time last year: he really struggled in July.  He had almost as many losses as saves in July and August.  (5 losses, 7 saves)  There were genuine questions about whether he was alright.  Right now, those questions don't exist.  They might by October.

*It's cute you think we'll ever have new owners.  :)

[tony&rodney]

I like some of the suggestions. Rushing is discussed because the Twins lack catching. I'm not sure the Twins have the stomach to trade for A and Rookie ball players. I'll stick to Rushing, Sheehan, and Ryan for Jax. I would also send Vazquez and Bader if the Dodgers require those guys.

[TNtwins85]

For either Jax or Duran the conversation starts with De Paula. I’d also want Nick Frasso and Maddux Bruns. If they want 2.5 years of an elite reliever then those 3 guys or the Twins keep them. No questions asked

[Rigby]

Conversation starts with DePaula or Hope plus...

[TNtwins85]

2 hours ago, Rigby said:

Conversation starts with DePaula or Hope plus...

Hope is a good one as well. I like Frasso and Bruns just because I believe they have the electric stuff to replace one of Jax or Duran. You ask for two hoping that one of them succeeds and if you get lucky both succeed. That’s hoping that the Twins just put them in the bullpen right away and leave it alone. No Louis Carland treatment for 3 years. Next March you stick these two in the BP and let them sink or swim. De Paula is the lottery ticket but a good lottery ticket and he’s got the kind of fire this team needs. The Twins hold the cards in this. It’s either those prospects or they keep them. Simple

[tony&rodney]

19 minutes ago, TNtwins85 said:

Hope is a good one as well. I like Frasso and Bruns just because I believe they have the electric stuff to replace one of Jax or Duran. You ask for two hoping that one of them succeeds and if you get lucky both succeed. That’s hoping that the Twins just put them in the bullpen right away and leave it alone. No Louis Carland treatment for 3 years. Next March you stick these two in the BP and let them sink or swim. De Paula is the lottery ticket but a good lottery ticket and he’s got the kind of fire this team needs. The Twins hold the cards in this. It’s either those prospects or they keep them. Simple

De Paula can be a middle of the order bat, for sure. He is also a slow-footed DH. The Twins have a serious problem with team speed and defense. Harmon Killebrew was surrounded by fast, sure-handed defenders on those greatest of Twins teams a million years ago. If the Twins didn't have a football size number of those guys already in the organization, De Paula might be interesting. In any event, it is highly unlikely that the Twins will trade Duran or Jax for a player who is still several years away. Falvey will want a player or players who can wear a Twins uniform now (so AAA/AA or MLB currently).

[TNtwins85]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

De Paula can be a middle of the order bat, for sure. He is also a slow-footed DH. The Twins have a serious problem with team speed and defense. Harmon Killebrew was surrounded by fast, sure-handed defenders on those greatest of Twins teams a million years ago. If the Twins didn't have a football size number of those guys already in the organization, De Paula might be interesting. In any event, it is highly unlikely that the Twins will trade Duran or Jax for a player who is still several years away. Falvey will want a player or players who can wear a Twins uniform now (so AAA/AA or MLB currently).

De Paula grades at 45 speed. Not bad. He’s a pure hitter that walks as much as he strikes out. Not several years away. Would be in MLB next summer/ end of next year and a middle of the order bat for years if he stays on the same path. That’s the guy you want. This topic is about the dodgers and they don’t have anybody worth trading in for in AA/AAA. Rushing is not a catcher you want back there 5 days a week and anybody else isn’t worth wasting breath over for 2.5 years of Jax/Duran. If those three guys I mentioned aren’t what Falvey wants then you don’t trade them. Simple.

[tony&rodney]

42 minutes ago, TNtwins85 said:

De Paula grades at 45 speed. Not bad. He’s a pure hitter that walks as much as he strikes out. Not several years away. Would be in MLB next summer/ end of next year and a middle of the order bat for years if he stays on the same path. That’s the guy you want. This topic is about the dodgers and they don’t have anybody worth trading in for in AA/AAA. Rushing is not a catcher you want back there 5 days a week and anybody else isn’t worth wasting breath over for 2.5 years of Jax/Duran. If those three guys I mentioned aren’t what Falvey wants then you don’t trade them. Simple.

Ok. You do a good job of stating your opinion.

How many times have you watched play (games, PA, not videos or stats)? I'm just curious.

[TNtwins85]

19 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Ok. You do a good job of stating your opinion.

How many times have you watched play (games, PA, not videos or stats)? I'm just curious.

Well, I’ve probably watched him play 5-10 games this year on Milb.tv. Watched him at the futures game. He’s got a good approach for his age referenced by the K/BB rate. The ball has a different sound off the bat as compared to most at that level and what I like most is his emotion. He has a fire about his play. Exciting and energetic. Will probably level out more with maturity. The only intriguing bat in the dodgers system right now worth trading 2.5 years of a top end reliever for.

[dxpavelka]

On 7/21/2025 at 7:37 AM, tony&rodney said:

Fair question.

My response is that the current position player roster is deficient to the point where it is going to rely more on luck than skill to finish this season or the next two above .500. It would be sweet to have the luxury of holding both Jax and Duran. I would prefer that, but I'm also greedy enough to want the Twins to field teams that can win 85 plus games in the next couple of years.

From the stats guys: Duran has only had 17 save opportunities. Only Atlanta and the White Sox have had fewer save opportunities thus far this season. Among the teams looking for closers are the Phillies and Dodgers who have each had a pile of blown saves. The Twins will need to suffer a few player losses in order to gain some talent now missing.

I hope that is a fair answer.

It's a fair answer but could also be nothing but pure and utter ********.

 

[dxpavelka]

On 7/21/2025 at 9:51 AM, Jeff K said:

I disagree.  Varland is looking like a very solid late inning pitcher.  If the Twins get the right return for either Duran or Jax, I would do it.  I would only trade one of them.  Let's say it's Duran traded.  That leaves the Twins with Jax and Varland to close things out.  The twins could do worse.  You got to give to receive.

you don't get better if your best players are playing elsewhere.  

[dxpavelka]

On 7/21/2025 at 6:46 PM, TheLeviathan said:

I mean....if we do nothing we won't be competitive either.  What's the path to get better if not to trade some of the talent we have now?

develop the talent we have now

[Jeff K]

8 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

you don't get better if your best players are playing elsewhere.  

Not immediately.  But the Twins are going nowhere with Duran.

[TheLeviathan]

8 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

develop the talent we have now

Who does that?  The same organization currently not doing that?

[Vanimal46]

Pretty easy to see why the Dodgers are calling around for bullpen help. So many uncompetitive pitches thrown last night. 

[dxpavelka]

14 hours ago, Jeff K said:

Not immediately.  But the Twins are going nowhere with Duran.

and they become worse without him