Could the Twins Buy Low on Former Top Pick Heston Kjerstad?

[Cody Christie]

As the 2025 trade deadline creeps closer, the Minnesota Twins front office will likely be working the phones to see if they can find a left-handed bat to boost their lineup. It might not be a splashy move like fans crave, but the best value might come from a struggling young hitter in need of a change of scenery. Enter Heston Kjerstad, a former No. 2 overall pick who could be the perfect buy-low target for a team like the Twins.

The 26-year-old outfielder was once viewed as one of the Orioles' cornerstone bats of the future. Back in the abbreviated 2020 draft, Baltimore surprised many by selecting him with the second overall pick. Most draft experts projected Kjerstad in the middle of the first round, but the Orioles cut a deal with him to sign an underslot signing bonus. That allowed the organization to spend extra money later in the draft on names like Jordan Westburg and Coby Mayo, both of whom are now considered core pieces for Baltimore. In hindsight, that strategy appears to have been a win for the Orioles but not necessarily for Kjerstad.

Health problems delayed Kjerstad’s pro debut until 2022, and while he’s had some big moments in the minors, including MVP honors in the Arizona Fall League, his transition to big league pitching hasn’t gone as planned. The 2025 season has been the first time Baltimore gave him a real shot at consistent playing time, but the results have been disappointing: a .192/.240/.327 (.566) slash line, four home runs, and a rough 3.6% walk rate over 167 plate appearances. He has produced a -1.4 rWAR, one of baseball's lowest totals this season. 

Digging deeper into the numbers reveals why Kjerstad has struggled. The left-handed hitter has been protected from facing lefty pitchers but still hasn’t produced against righties with a .613 OPS. His strikeout rate has ballooned to 26.9%, and he’s chasing pitches out of the zone at an alarming 38.4% clip. His swing decisions haven’t been competitive enough to allow his raw power to shine through. To his credit, his overall contact rate has improved compared to his 2023 and 2024 cups of coffee, but not enough to offset the poor zone judgment.

Meanwhile, Baltimore’s outfield depth chart has multiple names ahead of Kjerstad. Cedric Mullins, Colton Cowser, and Tyler O’Neill are all ahead of Kjerstad in the pecking order. Even top prospects like Coby Mayo, who can play both third base and corner outfield and Heston’s former Arkansas teammate, Jordan Westburg, look like safer bets to contribute regularly. That glut of talent could make Kjerstad expendable, especially if Baltimore is ready to move on.

And that’s where the Twins come in.

Minnesota’s need for a left-handed bat isn’t a secret. Trevor Larnach continues to ride the rollercoaster of inconsistency, and Kody Clemens, despite flashes of solid play, has largely settled into a bench role. The Twins lineup is built on balance, but the team remains overly reliant on right-handed production. They could use a lottery ticket-type player who, with the proper adjustments, could provide impact left-handed pop.

There’s also an intriguing connection here: Twins hitting coach Matt Borgschulte worked in the Orioles system for several years, overlapping with Kjerstad’s early professional development. If anyone on the Twins staff has a sense of what makes Kjerstad tick and what might fix him, it’s Borgschulte. That familiarity could give the Twins confidence to pursue the former top pick with the belief that a fresh environment (and a patient-hitting program) could unlock his potential.

Of course, the Twins shouldn’t and almost certainly wouldn’t pay a premium price to roll the dice on Kjerstad. His stock is as low as it’s ever been. His limited MLB success, troubling plate discipline metrics, and crowded organizational situation mean that Baltimore would likely entertain offers that don’t involve top prospects or major league-ready pieces. A swap for a depth reliever or mid-level minor leaguer could be enough to pry him loose.

It’s also worth noting that Kjerstad’s underlying tools remain enticing. He posted enormous exit velocities in the minors and mashed his way through the Arizona Fall League. His raw power remains among the best in Baltimore’s system. The problem has been getting to that power in games. The Twins could hope that something could change with improved swing decisions and mechanical adjustments.

For a Twins team always looking for cost-controlled options, Kjerstad represents a rare chance to buy low on a former top prospect without mortgaging the future. If it works, they’d add an affordable, controllable left-handed bat with upside, precisely what the roster needs now and in the future. If not, the cost would likely be low enough that the mistake wouldn’t be detrimental. If I’m the Twins, I make the call. The risk is minimal. The upside is too good to ignore. After all, sometimes the best moves at the deadline aren’t the biggest. They’re the smartest.

Should the Twins target Kjerstad? Can the team fix his approach? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

 

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[jkcarew]

Definitely not a win-now move. He’s unable to earn consistent playing time on a team that has an offense worse than the Twins. Larnach has been infinitely better offensively. Not close. MAYBE a win-later move? He’s 26. Yes, 2nd overall draft pick…but consensus was projected much lower…and sometimes teams simply make bad picks.

Regardless, I’d rather significant moves not be made until the future status of this FO is more certain. It’s not like the club is on the verge of…anything.

[Eris]

Of the 113 qualified OF he is 111th with -7 OAA. Basically he profiles as a DH unless he can play 1B. 
 

(can’t paste Baseball Salvant link, not sure why). 

[Mark G]

I don't know.  With the article TD put out a few days ago about our outfield depth being one of our strengths, do we really want another depth OF?  Cody might very well be right about his analysis, and I don't see a dramatically big downside, but another OF?  

If it is as cheap as a 5th or 6th round draft pick and a little bit of cash (or something just as cheap), make an offer and take a flier.  Otherwise, do we really want another project OF?  

[jkcarew]

17 minutes ago, Eris said:

Of the 113 qualified OF he is 111th with -7 OAA. Basically he profiles as a DH unless he can play 1B. 
 

(can’t paste Baseball Salvant link, not sure why). 

His fielding metrics may say he’s a DH, but his hitting numbers say he’s an outfielder. Or a really good defensive catcher. 😉

[TopGunn#22]

I would have interest, and the key is what would Baltimore take in return.  But Mark G. makes a great point.  We're already supposed to have depth in the OF.  Buxton, Bader, Wallner, Larnach, E-Rod, Jenkins, Gabe Gonzalez, Kiersey, even Castro.  Some of these guys might go at the deadline.  We know we need a catcher. 

A trade for Kjerstad would need to be made with another trade in mind, like packaging Larnach and something else of value to the White Sox for Quero or Teel.  Larnach and a little something more for Teel??  

Dr. Gast posts on BBTV consistently.  Doc, the last time I saw a value for Teel it was 22.3 (and then he got traded to the White Sox).  The Quero that catches for the White Sox,  I've never had a value for him  The last time I checked on Kjerstad he was at 19.5 (and Larnach was at 21.7).  Kjerstad's value has cratered.  Larnach's probably hasn't changed much.

What would it take to pry a Dalton Rushing from the Dodgers, or Teel/Quero from the White Sox??  

[S Bart]

I shake my head at times when these "trade possibility articles" are published. VERY RARELY>>>do these trades actually happen...with the Twins. 

[tony&rodney]

Make a specific suggestion if you think there is some possibility for a transaction. Who from the Twins could possibly interest another team? Just a wild guess or two.

[Mike Sixel]

What? Why? No. 

[Doctor Gast]

3 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I would have interest, and the key is what would Baltimore take in return.  But Mark G. makes a great point.  We're already supposed to have depth in the OF.  Buxton, Bader, Wallner, Larnach, E-Rod, Jenkins, Gabe Gonzalez, Kiersey, even Castro.  Some of these guys might go at the deadline.  We know we need a catcher. 

A trade for Kjerstad would need to be made with another trade in mind, like packaging Larnach and something else of value to the White Sox for Quero or Teel.  Larnach and a little something more for Teel??  

Dr. Gast posts on BBTV consistently.  Doc, the last time I saw a value for Teel it was 22.3 (and then he got traded to the White Sox).  The Quero that catches for the White Sox,  I've never had a value for him  The last time I checked on Kjerstad he was at 19.5 (and Larnach was at 21.7).  Kjerstad's value has cratered.  Larnach's probably hasn't changed much.

What would it take to pry a Dalton Rushing from the Dodgers, or Teel/Quero from the White Sox??  

You know I've been high on Teel since college & Edgar Quero even longer, when he was with LAA. It's a shame they both ended up at CWS. CWS won't trade with us unless somehow we can hide a 3-way trade (you have to be creative, so that eliminates us). Just for your info, Teel is 22.1, Quero has been doing well, his stock went up to 17.9. Larnach's stock is down to 11.9. Rushing is 43.6, not sure what it'd take to lure him from LAD but it'd sure be nice if we could. Not interested in Kjerstad, I'd rather take a chance on our guys.

[Blyleven2011]

3 hours ago, S Bart said:

I shake my head at times when these "trade possibility articles" are published. VERY RARELY>>>do these trades actually happen...with the Twins. 

I rolled my eyes when I saw the title ...

The twins are playing so bad , they are not going to trade for help to help this year because we are not contenders  , it's time they open there eyes and realize bringing back this 2024 team with a few players added for 2025 hoping it would turn around  , they have to realize there mistake and trade off the free agents to be and some of the under performing players , keep someone that can hit ...

It's to bad we have a offense that isn't any better than 2024 , because it's a waste of our pitching  ...

 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

5 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Make a specific suggestion if you think there is some possibility for a transaction. Who from the Twins could possibly interest another team? Just a wild guess or two.

I think teams would be interested in Julien or Miranda for the same reason teams would be interested in Kjerstad. Teams take fliers on players that have strong tools or have had MLB success in the past hoping they can unlock some missing piece.

[tony&rodney]

8 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I think teams would be interested in Julien or Miranda for the same reason teams would be interested in Kjerstad. Teams take fliers on players that have strong tools or have had MLB success in the past hoping they can unlock some missing piece.

Ok. So Julien and Miranda for Kjerstad? Do it. 

[TopGunn#22]

O.K. Dr. Gast, I don't have all the updated numbers but what you gave me helps.  

Rushing 43.6 to the Twins

Duran 12.0    Castro 11.0   Jeffers 19.4   42.4

The Twins do it to avoid paying Duran and Castro in 2026 and their willing to include Jeffers because they will have Rushing.  Twins do a re-set, Jax becomes the closer and Rushing plays catcher 2 out of 3 games and DH's when he's not catching.  The kid is oozing with offensive potential.  

The Dodgers do it because their bullpen is a merry-go-round of hurt...not hurt and Duran gives them a flame thrower who becomes their closer.  Scott, Yates and Vesia have all had their chance and come up short.  Kopech is back but with his injury history he'll be on the I.L. again by July 1st.  This leaves the Dodgers with a stable of power arms for their BP and rotation.  Duran's durability clinches the deal.

In the end, it's all about winning World Series Championships for the Dodgers and this fits the bill for them.  They will simply reload and sign another stud catcher.  They've dealt more catchers in the past 10 years than anybody, and yet they keep coming up with them.  

Twins lean on young players (like the Tigers last year) and see what happens.  New ownership takes over by Christmas.  

[Otaknam]

This makes no sense. Larnach and Wallner are both left handed power hitting outfielders who have had more success than Kjerstad, with comparable defensive ability. And they have EROD and Jenkins in the pipeline, among others. Unless Kjerstad can be acquired for a low A player, no thanks. 

[Western SD Fan]

3 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

O.K. Dr. Gast, I don't have all the updated numbers but what you gave me helps.  

Rushing 43.6 to the Twins

Duran 12.0    Castro 11.0   Jeffers 19.4   42.4

The Twins do it to avoid paying Duran and Castro in 2026 and their willing to include Jeffers because they will have Rushing.  Twins do a re-set, Jax becomes the closer and Rushing plays catcher 2 out of 3 games and DH's when he's not catching.  The kid is oozing with offensive potential.  

The Dodgers do it because their bullpen is a merry-go-round of hurt...not hurt and Duran gives them a flame thrower who becomes their closer.  Scott, Yates and Vesia have all had their chance and come up short.  Kopech is back but with his injury history he'll be on the I.L. again by July 1st.  This leaves the Dodgers with a stable of power arms for their BP and rotation.  Duran's durability clinches the deal.

In the end, it's all about winning World Series Championships for the Dodgers and this fits the bill for them.  They will simply reload and sign another stud catcher.  They've dealt more catchers in the past 10 years than anybody, and yet they keep coming up with them.  

Twins lean on young players (like the Tigers last year) and see what happens.  New ownership takes over by Christmas.  

You would have to have someone other than Castro as the Dodgers already have three players who have similar flexibility and are better than Castro in Mookie Betts, Kike Hernandez, and Tommy Edman.  I'm also thinking the Twins are kind of in limbo.  They have a high unmovable contract that limits what they can do financially (Correa) and too many players close to the end of their arbitration years, withing two years of FA (Jax, Duran, Ryan, Ober, Jeffers, and Larnach).  Maybe they could use Rushing as part of a reload for next year.  Another trick that the Dodgers like to do is to trade big contracts of underperforming players out and pay the other team to take them and reload.  Paxton to the Red Sox last year comes to mind.