How the Twins and the Orioles Can Match Up On a Joe Ryan Trade

[DannySD]

Not sure about this exact trade, but they'll have to trade two of Lopez/Ryan/Ober soon unless payroll goes up. Ryan/Ober's arb years may even be too expensive, there's a bunch of cheaper options, and this is how the Twins operate. Trades for young offense could happen if they are out of it at the deadline. 

[Major League Ready]

7 hours ago, DannySD said:

Not sure about this exact trade, but they'll have to trade two of Lopez/Ryan/Ober soon unless payroll goes up. Ryan/Ober's arb years may even be too expensive, there's a bunch of cheaper options, and this is how the Twins operate. Trades for young offense could happen if they are out of it at the deadline. 

Have you considered that they have 34.68M coming off the books next year.  They could keep Lopez/Ryan and Ober but spending would have to go up to keep all of the players that will be ARB-2 and Arb-3 in 2026-27, especially if Lewis/Wallner and Larnach perform well.  Jeffers comes of in 2027 but Duran and Jax are free agents along with Lopez/Ryan and Ober in 2028.  

Trading Lopez would make it feasible to keep them all.  Matthews will replace Paddock.  If Festa or Prielipp are also mid-rotation or better, they will be able to move one of Lopez/Ryan or Ober.  Moving Lopez along with the 2026 free agents coming of would give them $55M to spend if they just maintain current spending levels.  Obviously, they can't add 2+ year contracts next year if they want to cover 2027 arbitration increases.  The only players coming off in 2027 are Jeffers, Tonkin, and Topa.

[IndianaTwin]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Have you considered that they have 34.68M coming off the books next year....

 

Did you include Dobnak's $3M? I think the number is actually over $37M. 

Right now the Arb increases are Ober, Ryan, Duran, Jax, Stewart, Sands, Jeffers, Lewis and Larnach. Others who are Arb-eligible are Tonkin, Alcala, Lovelady, Clemens, Bride and Miranda.

[Major League Ready]

16 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

Did you include Dobnak's $3M? I think the number is actually over $37M. 

Right now the Arb increases are Ober, Ryan, Duran, Jax, Stewart, Sands, Jeffers, Lewis and Larnach. Others who are Arb-eligible are Tonkin, Alcala, Lovelady, Clemens, Bride and Miranda.

Here are the numbers for changes in 2026.  They project around $125M with arbitration increases.  

Vasquez	10,000,000
Paddack	7,500,000
Bader	6,250,000
Correa	5,833,000
Columbe	3,000,000
Dobnak	3,000,000
Total	35,583,000

[IndianaTwin]

14 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Here are the numbers for changes in 2026.  They project around $125M with arbitration increases.  

Vasquez	10,000,000
Paddack	7,500,000
Bader	6,250,000
Correa	5,833,000
Columbe	3,000,000
Dobnak	3,000,000
Total	35,583,000

Thanks. I forgot about Correa's reduction. There's also Castro's $6.4M and France's $1M, right? So that's essentially $43M coming off. 

 

[Fatbat]

There is no reason that the Twins can’t afford $150M+payroll other than we are just cheap. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

On 5/9/2025 at 1:25 PM, bean5302 said:

And Chris Bassitt was the top pitcher in all of MLB through the first two weeks this year....

Joe Ryan hasn't worn out. Scouting reports catch up to this adjustments and his luck runs out so he gets clobbered in the 2nd half. Hopefully, this year will be different for him as I like watching Twins players succeed, but unfortunately for you and Joe Ryan, there has been a second half to the season since MLB started, and cherry picking only the parts you like doesn't invalidate the fact Joe Ryan's very best season was 3.1 fWAR.

The average fWAR for even an All Star pitcher is 4.0. Cy Young candidates are generally around 6.0. 

I guess I didn't realize top 30 pitchers didn't include pitchers that weren't cy young or All Stars.  My bad LOL.  Ryan just needs to remain healthy and he will likely be well in the top 30.  In either case he is #2 and worst,  and that is a dang fine pitcher by any metric.  

[Major League Ready]

4 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

Thanks. I forgot about Correa's reduction. There's also Castro's $6.4M and France's $1M, right? So that's essentially $43M coming off. 

 

IDK how I missed Castro.  The reason I did not include France is that his salary is so low that his replacement will cost at least $820K so there won't be any savings.

They can probably afford to keep everyone.  The bigger problem long-term is having so many important players coming off the same year (2028).  It would very likely close their window.  If they can get an equivalent replacement in Matthews / Festa / Prielipp they could sustain a very good rotation at a lower cost.  I see a similar situation with OFers.  At least, I am hoping Jenkins, Emma, and others will allow them to trade Larnach or Wallner in the next year and a half..  We would be taking a page out of the Ray's playbook.

[IndianaTwin]

25 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

IDK how I missed Castro.  The reason I did not include France is that his salary is so low that his replacement will cost at least $820K so there won't be any savings.

They can probably afford to keep everyone.  The bigger problem long-term is having so many important players coming off the same year (2028).  It would very likely close their window.  If they can get an equivalent replacement in Matthews / Festa / Prielipp they could sustain a very good rotation at a lower cost.  I see a similar situation with OFers.  At least, I am hoping Jenkins, Emma, and others will allow them to trade Larnach or Wallner in the next year and a half..  We would be taking a page out of the Ray's playbook.

Makes sense on France. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

On 5/9/2025 at 5:46 PM, NYCTK said:

So you think the Orioles should be sellers, and the trade you propose they take is to take on salary, trade away a hitter under control next season, and settle for a mediocre prospect. 

 

No one is saying the Twins give up. a “mediocre “ prospect. A guy in the 11-29 range from the Twins system has potential. The Orioles get a back end MLB starter who might be more than that and who helps fill a huge roster hole, plus a player with real potential. The Twins get a solid but not great bat to play 1B/ DH and fill the rotation hole from below. Seems like a good deal for both sides given where the are and each team’s realistic potential result this year. 

[Mike Sixel]

8 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Have you considered that they have 34.68M coming off the books next year.  They could keep Lopez/Ryan and Ober but spending would have to go up to keep all of the players that will be ARB-2 and Arb-3 in 2026-27, especially if Lewis/Wallner and Larnach perform well.  Jeffers comes of in 2027 but Duran and Jax are free agents along with Lopez/Ryan and Ober in 2028.  

Trading Lopez would make it feasible to keep them all.  Matthews will replace Paddock.  If Festa or Prielipp are also mid-rotation or better, they will be able to move one of Lopez/Ryan or Ober.  Moving Lopez along with the 2026 free agents coming of would give them $55M to spend if they just maintain current spending levels.  Obviously, they can't add 2+ year contracts next year if they want to cover 2027 arbitration increases.  The only players coming off in 2027 are Jeffers, Tonkin, and Topa.

Of course, they need to replace Vazquez with a FA or trade, as they have zero catchers. They have to replace  France who makes a measly 1 million (no one in the minors is a 1B). 

[Major League Ready]

33 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Of course, they need to replace Vazquez with a FA or trade, as they have zero catchers. They have to replace  France who makes a measly 1 million (no one in the minors is a 1B). 

Sure seems likely they replace Vasquez via free agency @ 6-10M.  1B is hard tom predict.  I see Keaschall becoming the everyday 2B.  If one of Lewis/Lee moves to 1B you would think that would be Lewis, right?

[DJL44]

32 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I see Keaschall becoming the everyday 2B.

I hope Keaschall is the RH hitting OF they keep trying to find (replacing Bader). Lee is fine at 2B.

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Sure seems likely they replace Vasquez via free agency @ 6-10M.  1B is hard tom predict.  I see Keaschall becoming the everyday 2B.  If one of Lewis/Lee moves to 1B you would think that would be Lewis, right?

I hope Lewis moves to first, and not Lee. But I'm never counting on Lewis being healthy. That's negative, but it's been four years now. Keaschell, I am a big fan, but the sample size is tiny. It's hard to see this front office not signing several veterans, it's in their DNA. 

[TheLeviathan]

45 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I hope Lewis moves to first, and not Lee. But I'm never counting on Lewis being healthy. That's negative, but it's been four years now. Keaschell, I am a big fan, but the sample size is tiny. It's hard to see this front office not signing several veterans, it's in their DNA. 

Lee at 3B, Keaschell at 2B, Correa at SS seems like the path ahead for as long as Correa doesn't hit the age cliff. 

Part of me sorta hopes the team is in a position at some point to deal Lopez for an answer at 1B.  Then invest in Ryan/Ober/Zebby/Festa/other up and comers in the years ahead.  

[Fatbat]

 

You aren't getting that much for paddock. And likely not SWR either. But I'm not dealing Ryan for at least another year plus. 

Paddack is still young. I can see a team like the Yankees or dodgers throwing him  $50M/4yr deal. ….as part of a trade

[TopGunn#22]

Paddack is a Wild Card as his last 3 starts have been REALLY GOOD.  Teams like the Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs and Orioles are pitching needy NOW.  For all the arms the Dodgers have, how long does anyone think Kershaw will last?  Glaznow?  Snell?  I know at some point Ohtani will enter the rotation and Gonsolin is finally back in the rotation, but it's amazing to consider how much money the Dodgers have invested in "fragile SP's."

Paddack and SWR are certainly guys to consider trading at this point.  But Ryan, Lopez and Ober are the foundation for anything GOOD that can happen for the Twins this season.  With new ownership sometime this season or next (how long can the Pohlad's draw this out?) even a slight increase in salary could/should be expected. 

It will be very interesting to see how the Twins draw in the coming home stand against Cleveland and the Royals.  With a winning streak active and the Twins back into the mix after the lethargic start it will be telling what message the fans send the Pohlad family...if any message is sent at all.  

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

On 5/10/2025 at 10:14 AM, bean5302 said:

No, he's not. At least not historically. I've done the analysis of where guys like Lopez, Ryan and Ober historically rank in terms of ERA, FIP, xFIP. Stretch the starting pitching innings down to 70-90 to get your 150 starter sample. Over the course of full seasons, Lopez, Ryan and Ober typically fall into that 60-100 range. They're not #1's. Lopez has been back end #2-ish. 

Joe Ryan continues to evolve his repertoire and he's gotten truly excellent results in the first half. He's never had a good 2nd half in his career, and he's never qualified for a championship trophy (literally only missing it by 0.1 innings in 2023). Ryan's best season ever was 2024 where he pitched only 135 innings and ranked 55th in ERA for 156 starters with 70+ innings. 3 WAR doesn't get a top 30 pitchers in baseball title.

Wonder if Bean will still argue if Ryan is a #1 pitcher LOL.   he is currently sitting at 4.3 WAR, the 12th highest of any pitcher.    

[bean5302]

On 7/28/2025 at 2:15 PM, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Wonder if Bean will still argue if Ryan is a #1 pitcher LOL.   he is currently sitting at 4.3 WAR, the 12th highest of any pitcher.    

You know, I was going to post another blog... but you just reminded me why I don't visit this site anymore. Desperately clinging for a chance to bash somebody months later.

[bunsen82]

On 8/2/2025 at 11:07 AM, bean5302 said:

You know, I was going to post another blog... but you just reminded me why I don't visit this site anymore. Desperately clinging for a chance to bash somebody months later.

Ryan is much more valuable now than he was viewed even earlier in the season.  Where there was a valid argument whether he was a #1 pitcher or not, Ryan has answered those questions.  Ultimately that is a good thing.   Of all the things that haven't gone the Twins way this season,  Ryan has done everything right.