Gotta Listen on Perkins?

[Guest USAFChief]

If our prospects don't pan out it won't matter if the Twins still have Perkins or not. The Twins could keep or even resign Mourneau, Willingham, Perkins and Doumit and it wouldn't matter.

 

All that matters is how many of the prospects pan out and what how many are above average. That is the only way the Twins will return to relevancy. Given that, what is the point of keeping Perkins? We might win 76 games instead of 75?

If at least some of what is good about the 2013 Twins isn't still around and good in 2014, 2015, 2016 then the Twins won't be winning anything in those years, either, no matter what happens with all these prospects.

 

Expecting to build a good team out of nothing but current minor leaguers is pretty much doomed to failure, or at the very least is going to take a half decade to work out.

 

I agree the Twins need some of their minor league prospects to come up and be average or above major leaguers to turn this ship around. They also need more than just that. They need to augment through trades and free agency. AND they need to have some of what they currently have still be around and productive.

[kab21]

With me , if we are not going to get a good package why trade him?

When did a handful of majic beans become more valuable then the real deal?

yes Glen is 30 years old, and tonight wasnt it a 43 year old who closed out the game against us?

 

Perkins is proven , he is cheap , he is team controlled for 3 years....If it aint a good package DONT TRADE HIM

 

Those are really good packages for him. We're talking about guys that are top 25ish prospects and 3 of them are critical needs for the Twins. Castellanos is just really good.

 

Another guy to add to that list is Kyle Crick from SF. Good upside.

[Oxtung]

If at least some of what is good about the 2013 Twins isn't still around and good in 2014, 2015, 2016 then the Twins won't be winning anything in those years, either, no matter what happens with all these prospects.

 

Expecting to build a good team out of nothing but current minor leaguers is pretty much doomed to failure, or at the very least is going to take a half decade to work out.

 

I agree the Twins need some of their minor league prospects to come up and be average or above major leaguers to turn this ship around. They also need more than just that. They need to augment through trades and free agency. AND they need to have some of what they currently have still be around and productive.

 

If the TR was going to go out and sign impact FA's with the available cash I would completely agree with you. That is a way to add talent to this organization that we are currently lacking without giving up anything needed for our future. But since that seems highly doubtful I agree that it will be perhaps half a decade before we win the division, retro active to 2011 our first terrible year. So 2016+ is when I think things matter. Perkins will be 33 at that point and will be the final year of his contract. That to me means he isn't worth keeping around. Trade him now while he's hot and coveted. Get what you can for him.

 

The "veterans" you speak of will be FA's brought in (unfortunately probably more retreads) and guys like Mauer and Plouffe.

[diehardtwinsfan]

If the TR was going to go out and sign impact FA's with the available cash I would completely agree with you. That is a way to add talent to this organization that we are currently lacking without giving up anything needed for our future. But since that seems highly doubtful I agree that it will be perhaps half a decade before we win the division, retro active to 2011 our first terrible year. So 2016+ is when I think things matter. Perkins will be 33 at that point and will be the final year of his contract. That to me means he isn't worth keeping around. Trade him now while he's hot and coveted. Get what you can for him.

 

The "veterans" you speak of will be FA's brought in (unfortunately probably more retreads) and guys like Mauer and Plouffe.

 

They should have a shot in 2015 as well. I wouldn't be surprised if they fall short, especially given the age of the roster.

 

I tend to agree with your reasoning though on Perkins, though good relievers can last well into their late 30s, especially given how limited Perkins actually gets used. He will likely still get a big payday if he continues pitching the way he currently pitches, and I could see the Twins giving it to him. I would definitely trade him for a good package, but it would have to be a good one.

 

Part of being good at trading is knowing when to say no. Bill Smith could never do that. I don't have a problem trading guys like Pelfrey for whatever they can get, but Perk is an asset to the org and would be a highly coveted asset in MLB. Unless a top 100 prospect at a position of need is coming back, I don't see him getting traded.

[nicksaviking]

I think Perkins will be moved and I think the return will be substantial.

 

According to MLBTR the Phillies are expected to shop Jonathan Papelbon heavily. Jon Heyman earlier stated if the Phillies were to move Papelbon, the return would be "astronomical."

 

This could easily play out similarly to last off season when teams preferred the cheaper Span/Revere to the pricey Bourn and Upton. Papelbon is two years older, has extra millage on his arm and has declining K numbers while Perkins are improving.

 

More importantly Perkins has a contract of the same length as Papelbon but it is less than 1/4 the price and Perkins' final year is a team option while Papelbon's is a vesting option. Bonus: Perkins is also left-handed.

 

I haven't said too many positive things about Terry Ryan recently, but I was very happy with how he leveraged his CF's against the free agent market last year. He can do it again by letting the Phillies establish the parameters and expectations of a deal while the Twins reap the benefits.

[Highabove]

Tom Powers

Although he is in demand, Glen Perkins likely will not be moved; he says he has been told as much.

 

Tom Powers: Twins' trade chips falling wrong way - TwinCities.com

[StormJH1]

Perkins is almost like Mauer-lite in terms of his "Twins-iness" and fan appeal - I just can't see them shipping out a hometown guy like that unless they absolutely have to. And, as Gleeman and other posters here have noted, they really don't have to. It's not like a Nathan situation where he has this giant contract coupled with post-injury concerns and a lousy team.

 

Plus, I don't feel like the return would be that great anyway. His production has been good, but some teams just don't like lefty closers, period, and Perkins doesn't have a long track record of domination. He'd likely be an elite 8th inning option for a team that already has a great closer, but you don't pay a deadline premium for that.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Plus, I don't feel like the return would be that great anyway. His production has been good, but some teams just don't like lefty closers, period, and Perkins doesn't have a long track record of domination. He'd likely be an elite 8th inning option for a team that already has a great closer, but you don't pay a deadline premium for that.

 

I think Glen is clearly a dominant, elite reliever at this point.

 

2011/2012/2013

 

IP: 61.2/70.1/30.0

 

ERA: 2.48/2.56/2.05

 

K/9: 9.5/10.0/12.6

 

Those numbers are pure domination for 2 1/2 straight seasons.

[Guest USAFChief]

Trading Perkins now tells me TR has punted on 2014, at least.

 

That doesn't set too well with me.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Trading Perkins now tells me TR has punted on 2014, at least.

 

That doesn't set too well with me.

 

Which is why I only advocate trading Glen if it brings back a starter in AA or higher.

 

No low minors, high upside guys. The Twins have enough of those. It's time to start building around Hicks, Arcia, and Gibson.

[Pius Jefferson]

Trading Perkins now tells me TR has punted on 2014, at least.

 

That doesn't set too well with me.

 

 

I can respect your opinion and don't like the idea of punting 2014. Realistically isn't there a pretty good chance of it happening regardless of Perkins being on the roster?

[drjim]

I can respect your opinion and don't like the idea of punting 2014. Realistically isn't there a pretty good chance of it happening regardless of Perkins being on the roster?

 

I don't agree with this. Young talent can emerge and guys like Plouffe or Dozier can break out. Obviously they need a pitcher or three but they don't have to concede 2014 right now.

 

I'm with Brock, only if blown away legit, ready pitching.

[JustinCB]

Steve Adams agrees with Olney... from his mlbtraderumors chat today:

 

Comment From Glen Perkins: What could the twins get for me?

 

Steve Adams: A ton. Olney was correct in saying there would be a bidding war for Perkins. He's guaranteed $10.3MM through 2015 and has a $4.25MM club option. That's insanely cheap, even with the price of relievers going down. I imagine a Top 50ish prospect and another couple of good minor leaguers. I don't think you'd see it since they're in the same division, but a package around Castellanos would be interesting.

 

Personally, I agree the Twins have a bigger need for pitching prospects at this point, but I'd be ecstatic if they could get Castellanos for Perkins. This looks even better if you don't think Sano sticks at third.

[Kwak]

I like Perkins and believe he should be retained, but calling him an elite closer? Perkins has zero post-season credentials. He can't be elite until he has "done it in the big time".

[jorgenswest]

I like Perkins and believe he should be retained, but calling him an elite closer? Perkins has zero post-season credentials. He can't be elite until he has "done it in the big time".

 

There is probably only one closer with enough sample size to be reliably evaluated on post season performance.

 

Any other credentials would be a myth and meaningless for any projection on future performance in the playoffs. The best predictor of playoff performance has to be the large sample of performance in the regular season. I am certain every organization understands sample size, otherwise they would be going after Phil Coke based on his 2012 post season credentials as a closer over Perkins.

[Brock Beauchamp]

There is probably only one closer with enough sample size to be reliably evaluated on post season performance.

 

Any other credentials would be a myth and meaningless for any projection on future performance in the playoffs. The best predictor of playoff performance has to be the large sample of performance in the regular season. I am certain every organization understands sample size, otherwise they would be going after Phil Coke based on his 2012 post season credentials as a closer over Perkins.

 

This +100.

[Kwak]

Closers with playoff experience with teams not in top 5:

 

Papelbon --PHL

F. Rodriguez--MILW

F. Rodney--TB

H. Street--SD

Crain--CWS, note playoff exp as a set up man.

 

Closers or former closers

 

R. Betancourt--COL

J.J. Putz--AZ

 

The "degree of eliteness" is probably in descending order, these guys have credentials, and there are more than one.

 

A bit less PA would be appreciated.

[golfboy1]

Hopefully Ryan will at least consider trading Perkins but I agree, it would take a great offer to trade him.

 

Boston seems the most likely partner but I think Bogaerts is practically untouchable. I think a couple of options are LHP Henry Owens, RHP Rubby DeLaRosa & low A prospect Manuel Margot.

 

I love Bogaerts but he is not getting traded for Perkins & the Twins need pitchers more than anything. Owens & Delarosa are both solid pitching prospects & Margot is a lottery ticket that might develop into a star.

 

I don't mind seeing the Twins punt the rest of this year...if it means they are better in 2014/2015 & beyond. Perkins can help those years also so they need a very good return but I also think they have other options for the pen while high upside SP are the hardest thing to find.

[jorgenswest]

Closers with playoff experience with teams not in top 5:

 

Papelbon --PHL

F. Rodriguez--MILW

F. Rodney--TB

H. Street--SD

Crain--CWS, note playoff exp as a set up man.

 

Closers or former closers

 

R. Betancourt--COL

J.J. Putz--AZ

 

The "degree of eliteness" is probably in descending order, these guys have credentials, and there are more than one.

 

A bit less PA would be appreciated.

 

If you are suggesting that GMs would prefer Rodriguez, Rodney, Street, Crain, Bettancourt or Putz because of their playoff experience, I simply disagree.

 

Some of them have a poor track record in the playoffs, but it is meaningless due to sample size anyway.

 

Papelbon is the better reliever based on the breadth of his regular season performance and he is paid accordingly. If money is not an issue, a team should go get him.

 

Bottom line, the combination of Perkins performance and contract make him a very valuable asset. No GM is going to look elsewhere because some inferior reliever has pitched 10-30 innings in the playoffs.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Closers with playoff experience with teams not in top 5:

 

Papelbon --PHL

F. Rodriguez--MILW

F. Rodney--TB

H. Street--SD

Crain--CWS, note playoff exp as a set up man.

 

Closers or former closers

 

R. Betancourt--COL

J.J. Putz--AZ

 

The "degree of eliteness" is probably in descending order, these guys have credentials, and there are more than one.

 

A bit less PA would be appreciated.

 

How many combined innings have those guys thrown in the postseason and why are you so convinced that 1-10 postseason innings are so much more valuable than the 200+ innings of performance a player accrues during 3-4 regular seasons?

 

You understand what SSS is and how it falsely skews the perception of a player, right?

 

Unless the player is Mariano Rivera or some catastrophic meltdown story like Byung-Hyun Kim, postseason stats simply don't matter going forward. They're far too infrequent and in small sizes to ever make an accurate judgment of a player.

 

And Huston Street? Really? Dude has a 4.60 ERA in the NL West and can't even strike out 5 per 9. You have to be kidding me.

[Brock Beauchamp]

If you are suggesting that GMs would prefer Rodriguez, Rodney, Street, Crain, Bettancourt or Putz because of their playoff experience, I simply disagree.

 

You and every GM in baseball.

[LaBombo]

You and every GM in baseball.

Yes, at first glance, but not a lock. There may well be a sleeper candidate ready to leap onto

the national stage and claim the title of 'The Next Bill Smith'...

[Kwak]

Changing the subject again? I stated I was opposed to trading perkins because he was too valuable to "flip" for some package of "hopefuls". My original post was an objection that Perkins is "elite". In my opinion he must earn that distinction in the playoffs.

That post received remarks like: "there's only one closer...". Which I respond there are more than one. These RPs have been in the playoffs with some success--just not as much as Papelbon's (which I also alluded to). Yet another flippant response which avoids the original post. I'm through here.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Changing the subject again? I stated I was opposed to trading perkins because he was too valuable to "flip" for some package of "hopefuls". My original post was an objection that Perkins is "elite". In my opinion he must earn that distinction in the playoffs.

That post received remarks like: "there's only one closer...". Which I respond there are more than one. These RPs have been in the playoffs with some success--just not as much as Papelbon's (which I also alluded to). Yet another flippant response which avoids the original post. I'm through here.

 

Was Ted Williams an elite player?

 

Overlooking the huge problem with SSS, knocking a guy in a team sport because his team hasn't made the playoffs is an awful way to judge the quality of a player. You may consider that flippant but I consider it common sense.

[jorgenswest]

Changing the subject again? I stated I was opposed to trading perkins because he was too valuable to "flip" for some package of "hopefuls". My original post was an objection that Perkins is "elite". In my opinion he must earn that distinction in the playoffs.

That post received remarks like: "there's only one closer...". Which I respond there are more than one. These RPs have been in the playoffs with some success--just not as much as Papelbon's (which I also alluded to). Yet another flippant response which avoids the original post. I'm through here.

 

Just to clarify...

 

The one closer I was referring to is Mariano with 141 innings in the post season. He is the only reliever with a significant sample. Papelbon has been in a lot of playoff series but only has 27 innings.

 

Mariano is elite. No one else can compete.

[nicksaviking]

So is the requirement to be called an elite closer post season success or simply post season exposure? Because Joe Nathan has one but not the other yet every GM in baseball would label him elite. If he's available, I truly doubt there will be a more sought after bullpen arm than Perkins.

[glunn]

If at least some of what is good about the 2013 Twins isn't still around and good in 2014, 2015, 2016 then the Twins won't be winning anything in those years, either, no matter what happens with all these prospects.

 

Expecting to build a good team out of nothing but current minor leaguers is pretty much doomed to failure, or at the very least is going to take a half decade to work out.

 

I agree the Twins need some of their minor league prospects to come up and be average or above major leaguers to turn this ship around. They also need more than just that. They need to augment through trades and free agency. AND they need to have some of what they currently have still be around and productive.

 

This seems like some keen insight to me. Does anyone disagree with what Chief said?

[jorgenswest]

How well do effective 30 year old closers age as they work there way towards 33? What is the rate of decay?

 

The Twins need to do this study to project his value in comparison to any offers.

[jokin]

This seems like some keen insight to me. Does anyone disagree with what Chief said?

 

Everything Chief says is valid in theory. The question that remains though is:

 

How do you get from current Point A (looking up from the depths and with glaring holes in the roster at key positions) to Point B (well-rounded roster loaded enough for annual consideration as a WS contender)?

 

If you have very few blue chip trading options, you either have to look for a blow-me-away offer, or seek the other routes to fill those holes. Right now there are too many holes that need filling... and... regarding FA, the Twins seem less than willing in filling all of those holes through FA and developing prospects, alone- you can help to jump-start the contention hopes for 2015 by getting as many ducks in a row, as soon as possible, starting with this trading season, and again in the offseason.

 

The bullpen seems to have been one area that Ryan excels at finding guys cheaply to fill the necessary and vital roles- and he certainly has stocked the minor league affiliates with live arms, up and down the system.

 

In short, if you get a bidding war for Perkins that can potentially change the outlook and projection for contention of the franchise to a shorter time-frame, you have to pull the trigger.

[h2oface]

2. Burton could close. Not as good as Perk, but see thing 1.

 

Burton? BURTON? Burton can be a closer? THIS YEAR? I sure hope not.