Gotta Listen on Perkins?

[ThePuck]

A high-performing-in-high-leverage-situations lefty is worth more to a team than your average closer- virtually every contending team has Perkins at the top of their reliever wish list- in the closer role, or not.

 

Exactly.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Again, we are talking 2-3 years down the road anyways, there is zero, I repeat zero reason why the Twins shouldn't be competing for the playoffs come 2015

 

And there is zero, I repeat zero reason why the Twins couldn't find a solid replacement for Perk's 60 IP a season by 2015.

[cmb0252]

Why won't he? He always had very good stuff, once converted to the bullpen his fastball picked up a few MPH and his K/rate has been improving every year are is now at 12 per 9.

 

Just because some pitchers fall off (just like starting pitchers do) you shouldn't just assume all will. Plenty of closers in baseball have been effective for multiple years now. Guys like Rivera, Nathan, Kimbrel, Soriano, Papelbon are all examples off the top of my head. No reason why Perkins can't be one of those.

 

While he could be, which would still be a waste on a below .500 team, the odds are stacked way against him. Buster Olneys' article, Dave schoenfields article, and the fan graph article show those guys are rare. The RPing market is thin this year and if the Twins float Perkins out there he would definitely be the best arm available.

[ThePuck]

While he could be, which would still be a waste on a below .500 team, the odds are stacked way against him. Buster Olneys' article, Dave schoenfields article, and the fan graph article show those guys are rare. The RPing market is thin this year and if the Twins float Perkins out there he would definitely be the best arm available.

 

Too often, we trade players that are close to their lowest value instead of trading while their value is high. Sometimes we just let them go to FA. If the plan is to solely build this team up through trade and the farm system, we have to trade players when they are at their peak value to get players to help us in two or three years instead of waiting for those trade chips to become too old and/or less effective to the point where their trade value is minimal or non-existent.

[Otto von Ballpark]

deleted

[Siehbiscuit]

Ryan has also said that he goes and talks to the stats guy before he makes a move, but if he disagrees he makes the move anyway. He's basically going there to look for affirmation on what he's going to do anyway and does it whether he gets that affirmation or not.

 

I heard that same conversation/interview and my interpretation was different. I took it as, Ryan seeks counsel of others not on just his ideas, but the scouts and all parties involved and if he is the outlier, he will concede to the group. Not a my way or the highway type of attitude.

 

I personally don't mind Terry Ryan when he is evaluating talent, I just do not like how he builds the ML club. He is and as stated that he is a scout at heart and he does that part well. But the offseason deals and signings seem to be an area of weakness for him and his staff.

 

I would prefer a complete FO office sweep and let a new GM handle the trading of Perkins. Almost any failed ML starters can develop into a solid reliever. i would be surprised if a guy like Pelfrey turned into a solid to great closer. He's got numerous pitches and velocity, plus he would only have to go one inning. Perkins is replaceable.

[DaveW]

Yeah because last time we got rid of Ryan his successor did a great job trading MLB talent....

[Otto von Ballpark]

Off-topic, but I actually like Ryan and the Twins front office. Just wish they could (or would be willing to) apply some of their scouting acumen to the free agent market -- there will always be some more financial risk there, but I see no reason why they can't look at "higher-end" free agents and identify some to pursue. (To those who argue we don't know if they do this already, I would wager that our long history of no high-end free agents acquisitions is evidence that they have not taken this approach.)

[diehardtwinsfan]

Not one person here is saying trade Perkins for the sake of trading him. That would be silly if someone actually said that. People are saying if we can get really good talent for him, talent that will help the rebuild, then the Twins should do it. Two different things, entirely.

 

I wholeheartedly agree, though some people seem to think that's what is being said. I think they should be listening, and if a bidding war errupts, smile when you are walking home with a couple top 100 prospects.

[Winston Smith]

Why won't he? He always had very good stuff, once converted to the bullpen his fastball picked up a few MPH and his K/rate has been improving every year are is now at 12 per 9.

 

Just because some pitchers fall off (just like starting pitchers do) you shouldn't just assume all will. Plenty of closers in baseball have been effective for multiple years now. Guys like Rivera, Nathan, Kimbrel, Soriano, Papelbon are all examples off the top of my head. No reason why Perkins can't be one of those.

 

Perkins may turn into the next Rivera, no one knows. It's more likely that he will tail off or get injured because that is the norm. Neither is for sure.

However, if a trade can be made that makes the Twins better or likely better over the long term, don't you have to consider it? Don't you trust TR?

[ThePuck]

Yeah because last time we got rid of Ryan his successor did a great job trading MLB talent....

 

Yeah, who was that guy that highly recommended Smith to be GM after making him his assistant GM earlier?

 

Oh, and how long did it take Ryan to make a contender after taking over, eight years? How long was Smith at the helm, four? And who was one of his special advisers? Ryan right? I know it's convenient to blame all of this on Smith, but most of the guys who came through the system, made the bigs and didn't perform/aren't performing, were brought in during Ryan's time....especially the pitchers.

 

Not only that, but MLB team under Smith did pretty well until his last year. Not exactly an easy thing considering he lost Hunter and Santana because Ryan hadn't signed them earlier.

[ThePuck]

I wholeheartedly agree, though some people seem to think that's what is being said. I think they should be listening, and if a bidding war errupts, smile when you are walking home with a couple top 100 prospects.

 

I think it's easier to argue against a point if you morph the point to an extreme version of itself.

[ashbury]

Not only that, but MLB team under Smith did pretty well until his last year.

 

And captain Edward Smith did pretty well for the first couple thousand miles of piloting the Titanic. Which, while not speaking well of the surname Smith, takes us pretty far afield from whether Ryan should shop Perkins or not.

[ThePuck]

And captain Edward Smith did pretty well for the first couple thousand miles of piloting the Titanic. Which, while not speaking well of the surname Smith, takes us pretty far afield from whether Ryan should shop Perkins or not.

 

I didn't take it afield, VodkaDave did when he mentioned the guy who replaced Ryan and his trades to try and make a point. The conversation flowed that way, but I didn't make it flow that way.

 

besides, wouldn't captaining a ship be more like the on-field manager while the person who designed the ship more like the GM? :-)

[Riverbrian]

Being a Minnesotan shouldn't matter but it does to me. I like having local boys on the team.

 

If he was from Lake Tahoe... I'd let the bidding war happen and take the best deal.

 

Closers can be created when you give them the ball... And an elite closer on a struggling team is like having the Mona Lisa hanging in your garage next to the shelf that you keep your motor oil on.

 

However... He's from Minnesota so I'm torn.

[DaveW]

Perkins may turn into the next Rivera, no one knows. It's more likely that he will tail off or get injured because that is the norm. Neither is for sure.

However, if a trade can be made that makes the Twins better or likely better over the long term, don't you have to consider it? Don't you trust TR?

Buxton could be the next Willie Mays, but its more than likely he will tail off and become an average player because that is the norm. Should we trade him as well?

[Winston Smith]

Buxton could be the next Willie Mays, but its more than likely he will tail off and become an average player because that is the norm. Should we trade him as well?

 

You really should read stuff before commenting. You are getting a lot over the top today!!

 

What I said about Perkins would also apply to Buxton if you can make the team better over the long haul a good GM should trade any player, that is his job make the team better. If you can't make the team better don't trade him.

[DaveW]

I have said time and time again if you get some top tier talent in return then trade him, I just don't see the market there at this point. I trust TR fully, I am just getting tired of all this "Well Perkins is probably going to suck in the future" talk that has been beaten to death in this thread.

[DaveW]

I didn't take it afield, VodkaDave did when he mentioned the guy who replaced Ryan and his trades to try and make a point. The conversation flowed that way, but I didn't make it flow that way.

 

besides, wouldn't captaining a ship be more like the on-field manager while the person who designed the ship more like the GM? :-)

 

I was pointing out that Terry Ryan has gotten great returns on the majority of the "ML" talent he has sent away, while Bill Smith got a big fat F on that front. The reason why the TWins ML team was good under Smith was that Ryan left him a full cupboard full of talent, the Twins have been bad under Ryan because Smith left that cupboard bare.

[snepp]

It wasn't Smith that left the minor leagues a barren wasteland. If the minors hadn't been in such putrid condition when Ryan stepped down there would have been more talent around when he "came back."

[ThePuck]

I was pointing out that Terry Ryan has gotten great returns on the majority of the "ML" talent he has sent away, while Bill Smith got a big fat F on that front. The reason why the TWins ML team was good under Smith was that Ryan left him a full cupboard full of talent, the Twins have been bad under Ryan because Smith left that cupboard bare.

 

I'll say again: I know it's convenient to blame all of this on Smith, but most of the guys who came through the system, made the bigs and didn't perform/aren't performing in 2011-now, were brought in during Ryan's time....especially the pitchers. On top of that, if Smith did that bad of a job, then Ryan mis-evaluated Smith's ability when he made him assistant GM and then later highly recommended him to be GM.

[Guest USAFChief]

And there is zero, I repeat zero reason why the Twins couldn't find a solid replacement for Perk's 60 IP a season by 2015.

If really good relievers are so easy to find why all the posts claiming there will be a bidding war for Perkins?

 

Again...stop thinking of Perkins in terms of "closer.". He's one of 7 pieces in a bullpen. Finding 10-12 good pieces to get u through a season is not easy. Far from it.

[ashbury]

I didn't take it afield, VodkaDave did

I was pointing out

I'll say again:

I tried to ask nicely before, but I guess I wasn't direct enough: please end the side-discussion on this well-worn subject, and keep to the thread topic of whether offers for Perkins should be entertained.

[Otto von Ballpark]

If really good relievers are so easy to find why all the posts claiming there will be a bidding war for Perkins?Again...stop thinking of Perkins in terms of "closer.". He's one of 7 pieces in a bullpen. Finding 10-12 good pieces to get u through a season is not easy. Far from it.

First off, you are responding to my post, and I never claimed there will be a bidding war. I don't know what the market is, and I would be very curious to hear ideas about that (and especially interested if any specific rumors start cropping up).Secondly, no, it's not that difficult or expensive to adequately replace 60 innings in a bullpen. The Twins have done it many times over. In fact, the only two times I recall when they placed premium value on bullpen innings it blew up in their faces (Nathan extension and Capps trade).Will the replacement be as good as Perkins? Maybe not, but he doesn't necessarily have to be -- Eddie G wasn't as good as Perkins but he was a fine closer on a couple playoff teams. And IF we can get good value back in trade, it might make up for any quality drop-off from Perk.

[ThePuck]

I tried to ask nicely before, but I guess I wasn't direct enough: please end the side-discussion on this well-worn subject, and keep to the thread topic of whether offers for Perkins should be entertained.

 

apologies. I misunderstood your PM

[JB_Iowa]

Well, I've read the fangraphs article and all the posts here and I'm still conflicted about what the team should do with Perkins.

 

If I looked at it strictly by the numbers, I'd say trade him (if they offer is good enough). But I keep coming back to all those intangibles. This team is short on veteran leadership. And to me seems to be even more short on guys with a personality who might have a chance of lightening the mood during what will undoubtedly be another trying season in 2014. In addition, a lot of fans say now that they don't recognize anybody on the team. At least Perkins is a "hometown boy" that most people recognize.

 

I'd rather keep Perk than extend Morneau.

[nicksaviking]

The reason why the TWins ML team was good under Smith was that Ryan left him a full cupboard full of talent, the Twins have been bad under Ryan because Smith left that cupboard bare.

 

Smith made some disasterous trades, but Ryan didn't leave him with a full cupboard. The cupboard was pulling out of the wall and was hanging on by one sheetrock anchor while half the dishes were about to spill out.

 

Smith would not have been forced to trade Santana had Ryan not mismanaged the first extension. You have to be pretty short-sighted to only extend a 26-year-old Cy Young winning lefty four years.

 

The Garza/Young trade was also lopsided but the Twins may never have gone after Young had Hunter been extended as he had been lobbying for the offseason prior to his free agency. Ryan left a mess to clean up. Smith too made a mess but had at least put the cupboard back on the wall and began stocking it again.

 

Edit:

 

please end the side-discussion on this well-worn subject, and keep to the thread topic of whether offers for Perkins should be entertained.

 

Ha sorry for my contribution! I was reading the posts and wasn't paying attention to the thread topic.

 

Trade Perkins for a huge haul. Love him but his position is expendable.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I have said time and time again if you get some top tier talent in return then trade him

Everyone is saying this.

 

I am just getting tired of all this "Well Perkins is probably going to suck in the future" talk that has been beaten to death in this thread.

 

I don't think anyone is saying this.

[ashbury]

If really good relievers are so easy to find why all the posts claiming there will be a bidding war for Perkins?

I guess the difference would be "find me a lights-out reliever by 2015" versus "find me a lights-out reliever by July 31." That could put some pressure on a GM, say one who already has put his chips in the "2013" square. And if it doesn't... it's all good.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I guess the difference would be "find me a lights-out reliever by 2015" versus "find me a lights-out reliever by July 31." That could put some pressure on a GM, say one who already has put his chips in the "2013" square. And if it doesn't... it's all good.

 

This is the big reason. Whether it's easy or not, the one thing the Twins have shown over the years is the ability to build a good bullpen. I do agree with Levi in that having 6 or 7 lights out guys is what you ideally want, and I think we are all spoiled on that given what the Twins had at the beginning of the 2000s with Hawkins, Balfour, Nathan, Romero, and Rincoln.

 

That said, that is one thing that I think the Twins did address with last year's draft. Most of the guys they took were hard throwing relievers that the were going to convert to starters. That may fail (and for most it likely will), but these guys all had very good offspeed pitch to go with a the mid 90s fastball, and as a result, many will likely return to the pen and be effective at the ML level. Couple that with some of the existing relief prospects that they have, and I think the pen will be in decent shape for the next wave... if it isn't decent relievers can be found relatively cheap.