Gotta Listen on Perkins?

[Highabove]

How well do effective 30 year old closers age as they work there way towards 33? What is the rate of decay?

 

The Twins need to do this study to project his value in comparison to any offers.

 

A good number of Closers can be effective well into their late 30's.

Here are a few examples from different Decades.

 

Al Worthington

Al Worthington Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com

 

Goose Gossage

Rich Gossage Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com

 

Dennis Eckersley

Dennis Eckersley Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com

 

Joe Nathan

Joe Nathan Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com

 

Mariano Rivera

Mariano Rivera Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com

[TheLeviathan]

This seems like some keen insight to me. Does anyone disagree with what Chief said?

 

This is the key:

 

They need to augment through trades and free agency.

 

The truth is, not all of what we currently have will be around and productive and some of the prospects aren't going to be all we hoped. So the Twins have to look outside the organization for help.

 

The bad part about that is the more I've thought about it the last few days - we won't utilize the trade deadline. Ryan, much like his "anti-6+ year FA contracts" stance, seems dead set against in-season trades. Or at least, very rarely pulls that trigger.

 

It's going to be hard to make this team into the WS contender we all want if we shut out all these ways of augmenting our team. For that reason - I'd shop Perkins (ACTUALLY shop him....not just field phone calls like I presume they did with players last deadline) but I don't move him unless I'm blown away with guys that will immediately be on the roster or, at the latest, the opening day roster next year.

[jorgenswest]

A good number of Closers can be effective well into their late 30's.

Here are a few examples from different Decades.

 

Al Worthington

Al Worthington Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com

 

Goose Gossage

Rich Gossage Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com

 

Dennis Eckersley

Dennis Eckersley Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com

 

Joe Nathan

Joe Nathan Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com

 

Mariano Rivera

Mariano Rivera Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com

 

I think the study needs to look at every effective 30 year old closer with similar usage pattern. The role of one inning closer probably became prevalent throughout baseball around the time of Eckersley. There should be a big enough pool in that span. Take that group and see what rate remain effective at 31, 32 and 33.

 

 

I did a similar group study before the Twins decided to extend Burton into next year. They didn't need to extend him as he was under team control for this year. Given the rate of decline of similar pitchers in his role, I suggested it would be unwise to extend Burton.

 

Burton: What's is the Future for a 31 Year Old Set Up Man? - Blogs - Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum

 

Set up men are a much more volatile lot. Perkins is a year younger. It would require a different study.

[howieramone1406390264]

This is the key:

 

 

 

The truth is, not all of what we currently have will be around and productive and some of the prospects aren't going to be all we hoped. So the Twins have to look outside the organization for help.

 

The bad part about that is the more I've thought about it the last few days - we won't utilize the trade deadline. Ryan, much like his "anti-6+ year FA contracts" stance, seems dead set against in-season trades. Or at least, very rarely pulls that trigger.

 

It's going to be hard to make this team into the WS contender we all want if we shut out all these ways of augmenting our team. For that reason - I'd shop Perkins (ACTUALLY shop him....not just field phone calls like I presume they did with players last deadline) but I don't move him unless I'm blown away with guys that will immediately be on the roster or, at the latest, the opening day roster next year.

I just read where our farm system is doing pretty well and that Buxton guy may end up being a pretty good player. Seems to me the evidence is accumulating that Terry Ryan knows what he's doing.

[TheLeviathan]

I just read where our farm system is doing pretty well and that Buxton guy may end up being a pretty good player. Seems to me the evidence is accumulating that Terry Ryan knows what he's doing.

 

It must have taken some effort to so thoroughly miss the point. Yeesh.

[Riverbrian]

Howie... I think you did miss Levi's point and used the misunderstanding in your defense of Terry Ryan.

 

Levi... It most likely wasn't extra effort... It was probably faith in Terry Ryan.

 

Have a great 4th of July and tread lightly with each other.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Hopefully Ryan will at least consider trading Perkins but I agree, it would take a great offer to trade him.

 

Boston seems the most likely partner but I think Bogaerts is practically untouchable. I think a couple of options are LHP Henry Owens, RHP Rubby DeLaRosa & low A prospect Manuel Margot.

 

I love Bogaerts but he is not getting traded for Perkins & the Twins need pitchers more than anything. Owens & Delarosa are both solid pitching prospects & Margot is a lottery ticket that might develop into a star.

 

I don't mind seeing the Twins punt the rest of this year...if it means they are better in 2014/2015 & beyond. Perkins can help those years also so they need a very good return but I also think they have other options for the pen while high upside SP are the hardest thing to find.

 

I don't see Bogarts coming over, but this is what Ryan should be asking for. As I said before, I'm dreaming of Bogarts/Barnes, but I doubt Boston does that. I do remember reading somewhere that they have another high ceiling SS that looks to stick in the lower minors. Wonder if they could get that guy and maybe Barnes or Webster instead. I'd be pretty happy if I knew we had a SS of the future that would debut around 2016 or so, but needed a bit more development to go with another high upside pitcher.

[drjim]

I don't see Bogarts coming over, but this is what Ryan should be asking for. As I said before, I'm dreaming of Bogarts/Barnes, but I doubt Boston does that. I do remember reading somewhere that they have another high ceiling SS that looks to stick in the lower minors. Wonder if they could get that guy and maybe Barnes or Webster instead. I'd be pretty happy if I knew we had a SS of the future that would debut around 2016 or so, but needed a bit more development to go with another high upside pitcher.

 

I understand your thinking but I don't like this trade at all. The majority of the value received has to be in a player(s) that will be on the roster by pretty much opening day next year. I know the team is stuggling right now but the window will start to open quicker than we might think, this is not a long rebuild job anymore.

[TheLeviathan]

Howie... I think you did miss Levi's point and used the misunderstanding in your defense of Terry Ryan.

 

Levi... It most likely wasn't extra effort... It was probably faith in Terry Ryan.

 

Have a great 4th of July and tread lightly with each other.

 

I think it was pretty deliberate. I like Ryan but he isn't infallible. The deadline and his rigidity to FA are two points I wish for better. Nothing more.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I understand your thinking but I don't like this trade at all. The majority of the value received has to be in a player(s) that will be on the roster by pretty much opening day next year. I know the team is stuggling right now but the window will start to open quicker than we might think, this is not a long rebuild job anymore.

 

So you would say Bogarts or no trade?

 

I ask because Barnes/Webster are both pitching in AA and could conceivably be in Minnesota sometime next season. I don't remember who the other SS was (and I could be wrong on that altogether), but he'd be in AA next season looking at a 2015/16 debut.

[drjim]

I think it was pretty deliberate. I like Ryan but he isn't infallible. The deadline and his rigidity to FA are two points I wish for better. Nothing more.

 

I like Ryan as much as anyone but these two critiques are extremely valid. A good response is not to remind people that the Twins drafted the right player last year.

[drjim]

So you would say Bogarts or no trade?

 

I ask because Barnes/Webster are both pitching in AA and could conceivably be in Minnesota sometime next season. I don't remember who the other SS was (and I could be wrong on that altogether), but he'd be in AA next season looking at a 2015/16 debut.

 

I would do it for Bogarts, but the Red Sox won't.

 

I misread and didn't realize that you had said a pitcher AND the other SS - I was thinking you were proposing a trade centered on the lower level SS. Your proposal would be conceivable for the Twins, might be a little steep for the Red Sox, but is perhaps the type of overpay I could support because they would get a starter that could pitch the rest of this year and be ready by opening day next year.

[TheLeviathan]

I like Ryan as much as anyone but these two critiques are extremely valid. A good response is not to remind people that the Twins drafted the right player last year.

 

I was thinking....the only instance in Ryan's career that I can think of anyone getting more than a three year deal was Morneau. Am I forgetting anyone?

 

I love Ryan's ability to build and sustain an organization (though, as he was exhausted late in his first run that broke down pretty hard) and the man is so, so shrewd at trades. But he's so passive at the deadline and he takes that and the contract thing to such an extreme that I'm worried we'll ever be able to sufficiently go beyond the organization to add talent.

[drjim]

I was thinking....the only instance in Ryan's career that I can think of anyone getting more than a three year deal was Morneau. Am I forgetting anyone?

 

I love Ryan's ability to build and sustain an organization (though, as he was exhausted late in his first run that broke down pretty hard) and the man is so, so shrewd at trades. But he's so passive at the deadline and he takes that and the contract thing to such an extreme that I'm worried we'll ever be able to sufficiently go beyond the organization to add talent.

 

Bill Smith signed Morneau. Ryan signed Santana, Hunter and Mauer to four year deals.

[TheLeviathan]

Bill Smith signed Morneau. Ryan signed Santana, Hunter and Mauer to four year deals.

 

Forgot that was Smith. Those three examples were all while they still had some arby control correct?

[cmb0252]

From Buster Olney:

 

"Teams are circling the Twins, waiting to see if they will ever decide to at least weigh offers for closer Glen Perkins, but to this point, they have been told: He is not available. If the Twins altered course and made him available, he would be at the center of perhaps the most aggressive bidding war of the trade deadline."

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/buster-olney/post?id=2296

[diehardtwinsfan]

From Buster Olney:

 

"Teams are circling the Twins, waiting to see if they will ever decide to at least weigh offers for closer Glen Perkins, but to this point, they have been told: He is not available. If the Twins altered course and made him available, he would be at the center of perhaps the most aggressive bidding war of the trade deadline."

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/buster-olney/post?id=2296

 

This bothers me... They should be listening. I don't have a problem with Ryan asking the moon, but they should be listening.

[howieramone1406390264]

This bothers me... They should be listening. I don't have a problem with Ryan asking the moon, but they should be listening.

I wouldn't doubt he's playing hard to get. Plenty of time. Can't see him passing up a SS of the future, or major league ready starter, or even several top starting pitching prospects. If our top scouts aren't already out, they must at least be on stand-by IMHO.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I wouldn't doubt he's playing hard to get. Plenty of time. Can't see him passing up a SS of the future, or major league ready starter, or even several top starting pitching prospects. If our top scouts aren't already out, they must at least be on stand-by IMHO.

 

I hope that's the case, but it's going to be hard to hear what the SS of the future is when you aren't listening to offers...

[mudcat14]

I would do it for Bogarts, but the Red Sox won't.

 

Sure Bogaerts is the prime value we would seek in return. But I'm not so sure that Deven Marrero isn't more likely and even preferable as a SS. I think he's superior defensively and would more likely be packaged with a higher caliber hurler than Xander, who may well end up at 3B.

[Brock Beauchamp]

This bothers me... They should be listening. I don't have a problem with Ryan asking the moon, but they should be listening.

 

At this point he could be posturing to drive up demand. We'll see if that changes in two weeks.

 

I'm not totally sold on trading Perkins but Ryan should certainly be listening to offers. If best offer creeps toward top 25 prospect territory, I don't know how one could pass that up.

[Smcginnity]

Personally, you trade him NOW while he has a ton of value and doesn't really get to be used on a losing team. We wasted the huge value that Willingham had last year and now we are stuck with him and not getting much in return most likely. Perkins should be traded and we should be able to get an A and B prospect (such as a Berrios and Adam Walker type deal).

[ThePuck]

Who exactly are we talking about here?

 

That was my question. Did we get Joe Maddon, Bob Melvin or Showalter when I wasn't looking? :-)

[jokin]

That was my question. Did we get Joe Maddon, Bob Melvin or Showalter when I wasn't looking? :-)

 

I'd settle for Francona....

[ThePuck]

I'd settle for Francona....

 

Yes, exactly...it was the name that kept slipping my mind. Thanks.

[kab21]

 

Sure Bogaerts is the prime value we would seek in return. But I'm not so sure that Deven Marrero isn't more likely and even preferable as a SS. I think he's superior defensively and would more likely be packaged with a higher caliber hurler than Xander, who may well end up at 3B.

 

A Barnes/Marrero trade is a reasonable asking price for Perkins. Preferring Marrero to Bogaerts is like preferring J.J. Hardy to Hanley Ramirez (in his prime). Bogaerts is so much better that you worry about his defense and where to play him after the fact. Bogaerts is pretty much untouchable unless a player like Giancarlo Stanton is getting traded though.

[beckmt]

Would hate to lose Perkins, but you have to sell high. Maybe Ryan will see a deal he cannot refuse. With so many clubs needed closers and Perkins price, should hopefully extract a kings ransom for him. Let it be known he is available and let the bidding war begin.

[robbie111]

If the Red Sox won't do Bogaerts maybe they would do anthony ranaudo and noe ramirez. Wonder if Ramirez could be made into a starter because of his outstanding changeup (supposedly the best in the Sox organization). Ranaudo could be #3 starter to add to Gibson, Stewart, Berrios and possibly May and Meyer.

[cmb0252]

David Schoenfield at ESPN published an interesting article called Another Reason why Closers are Overrated. The article suggests that the Twins should trade Perkins while his value is at its highest because of how volatile closers are. Mr.Schoenfield takes these lines from a Buster Onley blog:

 

"Do you know how many teams have the same closer in 2013 that they did two years ago, in 2011? Try three: Mariano Rivera of the Yankees, Chris Perez of the Indians and Craig Kimbrel of the Braves.

 

Closers are like kickers in the NFL. Yes, there is the occasional Morten Andersen, the guy who is really good for a long time. Rivera is that guy.

 

But if baseball history holds in the cases of Parnell and Perkins, then by 2015 the odds are they'll either have lost their jobs or gotten hurt."

Mr.Schoenfield goes on to suggest the Twins, and Mets, should trade their closers because:

"What's more important than worrying about acquiring a Proven Closer is acquiring bullpen depth. So the Twins and Mets shouldn't hang on to Perkins and Parnell simply because they worried about trading their closer. They'll find another one easily enough."

Link to full article below:

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/38037/another-reason-closers-are-overrated

[jorgenswest]

Thanks for the link. I am convinced. I do think teams are more reluctant in recent seasons to part with good prospects. They are aware of the volatility of closers. However, Perkins could make a huge difference for a team like the Red Sox or Tigers this year. That has to merit a good return in prospects.