Gotta Listen on Perkins?

Joe A. Preusser · June 28, 2013

Elite SS or SP prospect or it's no deal. And I don't think he brings in an elite SP prospect a la Mayer. So that leaves a can't miss SS prospect, preferably MLB ready or 1-2 years away from being MLB ready. Otherwise you keep Perk and his glorious contract and even try to extend him in a couple years if he keeps performing. Selling high only works if you get what you want back.

JustinCB · June 28, 2013

Stumbled across this, from Fangraphs.

Trade Candidate Leaderboards: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

leaderboards for players from teams that will be likely sellers. Glen comes in at the top of the reliever pile based on a number of different metrics, including xFIP and k/9, and he's second in WAR, behind an old friend.

raindog · June 28, 2013

Stumbled across this, from Fangraphs.
Trade Candidate Leaderboards: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com
leaderboards for players from teams that will be likely sellers. Glen comes in at the top of the reliever pile based on a number of different metrics, including xFIP and k/9, and he's second in WAR, behind an old friend.

Holy crap, Jesse Crain. Remember when he sucked?

jokin · June 28, 2013

First question is what is the market? Arizona, Los Angeles, San Diego (maybe), St. Louis (maybe), Detroit, and Boston.

?

Must add Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, Baltimore as they are also perfect fits (18-20 in RP ERA). Failing/fading closers for 2 and/or poor lefty options, and all 3 teams are on a limited budget with some very good prospects on the horizon.

Joe A. Preusser · June 28, 2013

Holy crap, Jesse Crain. Remember when he sucked?

Vividly.

nicksaviking · June 28, 2013

My first thought was we need at top SP. My second thought was how do I feel about Dee Gordon who is currently mired in AAA?

What about Hanley Rameriz instead and the Dodgers then throw in another prospect depending on what kind of money is exchanged.

Not sure if I'm interested in Ramirez at this time, but I know I'm less interested in Gordon.

Jeremy Nygaard · June 28, 2013

I doubt the Twins move Perkins.

Which means three more years of Fanatic Jack tweeting about how TR screw it up not dealing him when he had value.

Brock Beauchamp · June 28, 2013

Which means three more years of Fanatic Jack tweeting about how TR screw it up not dealing him when he had value.

I'd rather punch myself in the face every time I pick up my phone than follow FanaticJack on Twitter. Because, at the end of the day, those two things are pretty much the same thing.

drjim · June 28, 2013

I'd rather punch myself in the face every time I pick up my phone than follow FanaticJack on Twitter. Because, at the end of the day, those two things are pretty much the same thing.

Every once in a while you have to take a peek to remember you are alive. I can't help myself.

cmb0252 · June 28, 2013

Based teams need to listen to any and all offers. Especially if people want to over pay for a relief pitcher.

diehardtwinsfan · June 28, 2013

I agree with this. Absolutely no need to trade Perkins for the sake of making a trade. They need to be blown away.

I don't think anyone is saying this... I'm sure not.

cmb0252 · June 28, 2013

Bogaerts and Barnes? Hanson and Tallion? I know it is Friday but maybe people should wait a little bit to start drinking. Mike nailed it earlier. Closers are overrated and only throw 60-70 innings a year. No idea why people think we can get several top 50 specs for Perkins.

fairweather · June 28, 2013

I would hate to see him go but if they could get an excessive return......

Sssuperdave · June 28, 2013

I think some are underestimating just how important it is that Perkins is signed for 3 1/2 seasons for like a buck-fifty a year.

I can't decide whether this means he should be traded or should not be traded. He should be traded because his very team friendly contract increases his trade value, and he should not be traded because the Twins have a top-rate closer locked in for three years at an awesome price.

I think there's another more complicated reason to not trade him though. I recall reading something recently from Denard Span where he felt that he intentionally signed a long-term team-friendly contract so that he wouldn't be traded, and that ended up being part of the reason he was traded (i.e. his contract increased his trade value). If the Twins do this too often could it make players less likely to sign deals like this?

Of course, there is risk on both sides to that sort of deal. Nick Blackburn signed a simlar length contract at a similar point in his career to both Span and Perkins, and it didn't turn out to be so "team-friendly."

drjim · June 28, 2013

I don't think anyone is saying this... I'm sure not.

There is a difference between trading him for fair value because you are moving pieces and reloading for a couple years down the line and being blown away. I'm saying I wouldn't do the former but would require the latter.

Red Bull · June 28, 2013

Yes I would love a top prospect(top 30) for him but honestly when he enters the game its so refreshing to see a pitcher as dominant as him in a Twins uniform. Its the only time we get to see some real heat, its the only time we are able to expect a strikeout. If we move him and get a top prospect than thats good and will help our future but if we dont I wont say what if because I get to watch a great pitcher in a Twins uni.

mudcat14 · June 28, 2013

Bogaerts and Barnes? Hanson and Tallion? I know it is Friday but maybe people should wait a little bit to start drinking. Mike nailed it earlier. Closers are overrated and only throw 60-70 innings a year. No idea why people think we can get several top 50 specs for Perkins.

Not that hard to figure. We traded a top 50 prospect for a worse, potential FA releiver at the deadline ourselves just a few years ago. Boston is loaded with SP prospects and has former first round defensive whiz Deven Marrero nipping right at Xander's heels. Perkins alone might net Marrero & a pitcher. Toss in Morneau, then Bogaerts is a real possiblity, along with a good arm.

Brock Beauchamp · June 28, 2013

Not that hard to figure. We traded a top 50 prospect for a worse, potential FA releiver at the deadline ourselves just a few years ago. Boston is loaded with SP prospects and has former first round defensive whiz Deven Marrero nipping right at Xander's heels. Perkins alone might net Marrero & a pitcher. Toss in Morneau, then Bogaerts is a real possiblity, along with a good arm.

I don't remember Ramos in any top 50 lists.

cmb0252 · June 28, 2013

Not that hard to figure. We traded a top 50 prospect for a worse, potential FA releiver at the deadline ourselves just a few years ago. Boston is loaded with SP prospects and has former first round defensive whiz Deven Marrero nipping right at Xander's heels. Perkins alone might net Marrero & a pitcher. Toss in Morneau, then Bogaerts is a real possiblity, along with a good arm.

Bogaerts is considered a top 5 prospect. Right there with Sano and Buxton. Throwing in Morny isn't going to help at all. Would you trade Buxton or Sano straight up for Perkins/half a season of Morny? Much less adding another top arm.

blairpaul715 · June 28, 2013

I don't remember Ramos in any top 50 lists.

Me either

Brad Swanson · June 28, 2013

Plus, there's a huge difference between a top 50 prospect and the 3rd best prospect in baseball.

jorgenswest · June 28, 2013

I don't remember Ramos in any top 50 lists.

He was close. According to baseball cube, he was#58 entering season he was traded and #71 the year before that. He was the Twins 2nd or 3rd prospect those years.

An awful trade acknowledged by everyone at the time. You don't trade top prospects for closers.

note: I should add that his OBP was .280 with an OPS of .625 in Rochester at the time of the trade. His prospect status had certainly dropped off the preseason ranking.

drjim · June 28, 2013

The bigger problem with that trade was not giving up a prospect, but giving up a prospect for MATT CAPPS.

Perkins has a lot more value right now than Capps did at that moment. I would expect better than Ramos, and I would not trade Perkins now for what Ramos was at that point.

Brock Beauchamp · June 28, 2013

The bigger problem with that trade was not giving up a prospect, but giving up a prospect for MATT CAPPS.

Yeah, pretty much.

nicksaviking · June 29, 2013

Perk has a better conract than Capps did as well.

Though every Twins fan basically hated giving up Ramos for a closer with little track record and next to no strikeout potential.

Perkins is better than Capps thus the Twins should recieve a better return than Ramos but it might be hard to find another GM as irresponsible regarding trades as Bill Smith.

Edit: Lightbulb. Let's get Kevin Towers on the phone.

mudcat14 · June 29, 2013

I don't remember Ramos in any top 50 lists.

Was going from my admittedly spotty memory. Thought he was like 43rd. Probably not. According to MLB.com (the only source I used,) Bogaerts is #19. Obviously others have him higher.

mudcat14 · June 29, 2013

Bogaerts is considered a top 5 prospect. Right there with Sano and Buxton. Throwing in Morny isn't going to help at all. Would you trade Buxton or Sano straight up for Perkins/half a season of Morny? Much less adding another top arm.

Of course I wouldn't give up Sano or Buxton, but the Twins aren't atop the toughest division in baseball. However if, IF, a bidding war ensues & they become convinced that they need help in the pen and on offense, ...who knows? They do have the luxury of having Marrero right behind Bogaerts on the organizational depth chart. Maybe he's the more likely target. If so, you go after one of their 3-Top 100 pitchers, as well.

Brock Beauchamp · June 29, 2013

Was going from my admittedly spotty memory. Thought he was like 43rd. Probably not. According to MLB.com (the only source I used,) Bogaerts is #19. Obviously others have him higher.

He was close to the top 50 on a couple of lists. On the other hand, his value had dropped significantly by the time he was traded.

It was such an awful trade. Overpaying with a guy whose value had (probably temporarily) dropped for a mediocre reliever. Facepalm.

diehardtwinsfan · June 29, 2013

I don't remember Ramos in any top 50 lists.

I don't remember Capps being a good reliever either.

Brad Swanson · June 29, 2013

I don't remember Capps being a good reliever either.

But he was. His '09 was bad, but the three seasons before that were really good. He was good in 2010, when the Twins acquired him. Plus, he was only 26.

I think the trade was always poor because Ramos was too much to give up, but it looks a lot worse in hindsight, due to Capps' crazy drop-off.

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