Comparing AL Central Rosters: Part 2 (Outfielders/DH)

[Seth Stohs]

In Part 2 of this series, we'll compare projected outfielders, Designated Hitters, and the benches of the Minnesota Twins and the other AL Central teams. 

Image courtesy of Luis Robert (Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images), Riley Greene (Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images), Byron Buxton (Brad Penner-Imagn Images), Steven Kwan (David Dermer-Imagn Images), Kyle Isbel (Peter Aiken-Imagn Images).

Yesterday, we discussed the infielders and catchers of the five AL Central rosters as of today. Obviously there will (or should!) be more moves coming, but I think the other part of this exercise is that it shows where the Twins and their competitors strengths and weaknesses are as we approach mid-January. 

Today, we'll take a look at the three outfield positions, pick a DH for each team, and then try to project a bench for each team. Then, like yesterday, we can try to summarize and rank the players. 

Left Field 
Twins: Trevor Larnach (1.5)
Guardians: Steven Kwan (4.1)
Royals: MJ Melendez (-0.3) 
Tigers: Kerry Carpenter (2.4)
White Sox: Andrew Benintendi (-0.3)  

A couple of CWS champions from Oregon State at the top of this list. Larnach and Kwan teamed with Nick Madrigal and Adley Rutschman at the top of the Beavers championship lineup in 2018. Kwan missed some time with injury last year, but he’s been very good at the top of the Guardians lineup and playing a Gold Glove left field. Larnach finally got consistent playing time and performed well. Quietly, Kerry Carpenter had a really solid season in Detroit. Presumably, more people will know about him after the upcoming season. Benintendi was a really good player as recently as three seasons ago.  

Center Field 
Twins: Byron Buxton (3.7)
Guardians: Lane Thomas (0.4)
Royals: Kyle Isbel (1.4)
Tigers: Parker Meadows (2.1) 
White Sox: Luis Robert, Jr. (0.5)

Here is a category in which there is no doubt that the Twins player is top of the list. Speed is still a big part of his game - he was certainly enjoying playing in center field more than he liked DHing in 2023. However, it is his power that has become his top tool the past few seasons. Parker Meadows played well in the second half, helping lead the Tigers surge toward the playoffs. Kyle Isbel is really strong in the center of the Royals outfield, but he hasn’t had an on-base percentage over .290 since his 28-game debut in 2021. Lane Thomas had a couple of decent seasons in Washington but struggled after Cleveland traded for him in July. Luis Robert has as much talent and athleticism as Buxton. While he had a very rough season in 2024, he is the one scary bat in the White Sox lineup. That, of course, means he could be traded at any point.  

Right Field 
Twins: Matt Wallner (2.1)
Guardians: Will Brennan (0.5)
Royals: Nelson Velazquez (-0.5) 
Tigers: Riley Greene (4.0) 
White Sox: Mike Tauchman (1.1) 

Greene was a consensus Top 10 prospect coming into the 2022 season. He debuted that season. He improved significantly in 2023 despite missing time due to injury. In 2024, he really put it all together. Strong defense, but an .827 OPS (133 OPS+) and 57 extra base hits. And he won’t turn 25 until the final week of the 2025 season. Considering how rough his first few weeks of the 2024 season were, Wallner came back later in the summer and really hit well. We’d love to see him get 140 games and see what kind of power numbers he can put together.  Tauchman joins the Sox after playing on the North Side of Chicago the past two seasons. 2025 will be his eighth with big-league service time. He’s become a solid on-base guy with the ability to make some great plays in the outfield too. After a solid 11-game debut in 2022, Brennan has been the primary right fielder for the Guardians, though he hasn’t posted an OPS over .700 either year. 

Designated Hitter 
Twins: Willi Castro (3.1)
Guardians: Kyle Manzardo (0.0) 
Royals: Hunter Renfroe (-0.1)
Tigers: Matt Vierling (2.6)
White Sox: Austin Slater (-0.1) 

Obviously Castro isn’t an ideal Designated Hitter, but he is an everyday player on the Twins roster and this spot fits. The true value of Castro is his ability to play all over the field, three infield spots and three outfield spots. He has earned his playing time with the Twins, and he even earned a spot on the 2024 All-Star team. However, his OPS+ the last two seasons have been 105 and 102. That’s not a bad thing for a utility player with strong defense. After a couple of seasons with the Phillies, Vierling has played in 268 games with the Tigers over the past two seasons. He has hit .259 with a combined 49 doubles and 26 homers. More of a utility player, he has played all three outfield spots and both corner infield positions. Renfroe has had several solid MLB seasons, even hitting more than 25 homers or more in five different seasons. The last two seasons, he has essentially been a replacement level player. Slater joins the White Sox as a free agent. After seven-plus seasons as a part-timer with the Giants, he played for three teams in 2024. The Rays dealt Manzardo to Cleveland for Aaron Civale at the 2023 trade deadline. He debuted in 2024 with about six weeks of games in May and early June. He came back to the big leagues on September 1st and homered  twice in his first game back. He finished the month with five homers including two against the Twins in their mid-September series against Minnesota that put a dagger in the Twins season. Manzardo added another homer in the ALCS against the Yankees. 

Bench 
Twins: Christian Vazquez (0.8), Edouard Julien (0.0), Austin Martin (-0.2), DaShawn Keirsey (0.0)
Guardians: Austin Hedges (0.4), Daniel Schneemann (0.3), Jhonkensy Noel (0.6), Tyler Freeman (0.3), David Fry (IL, 1.7)
Royals: Freddy Fermin (1.9), Nick Loftin (-0.2), Drew Waters (0.0), Michael Massey (1.5) 
Tigers: Dillon Dingler (0.0), Javier Baez (-0.7), Justyn-Henry Malloy (-0.5), Zach McKinstry (1.1), Spencer Torkelson (0.1)
White Sox: Korey Lee (-0.4), Josh Rojas (1.9), Bobby Dalbec (-0.7), Miguel Vargas (-1.2)

I won’t spend much time talking about the bench, but the best teams often have the most depth. Injury is part of it, unfortunately. Initially, it’s fair to say that none of these benches inspire a lot of confidence. However, there are some interesting names. Will Vazquez remain with the Twins. Can Julien return to his 2022 and 2023 form? David Fry was an All-Star last year, but he’ll miss time early in the season. And Jhonkensy Noel should get a lot of at-bats. And hit a ton of home runs. Will Freddy Fermin get more time behind the plate with Perez DHing? What can the Tigers hope for from Javier Baez? Are they somewhat obligated to start him? 

Summary
At the beginning, I made the note that you should think through how you would want to rank the players at each of these positions. Maybe you even want to consider degrees of 'better than'. Just for fun, I tried two exercises. 

The first chart simply ranks the teams, with "1" being the team with the best player at each position, "2" being second best, and "5" being the worst of the group. In this case, you can see how the teams rank (at these positions) with the lowest total being the best. 

The second chart is a chart in which you get to divvy up 10.0 points for each position. Depending on how detailed you want to get, you can use whole numbers or use decimals. In my example yesterday, I gave Bobby Witt, Jr. five of the 10 available points at shortstop. As you'll see today, I don't have any single spot over 3.75. Again, make it your own, give it some thought, and then we can discuss.  

The intent for these is to see where each team's strengths and weaknesses may be relative to the rest of the division. As you know, it's all a matter of opinion. Even projections are calculated opinions and guesses. So, have some fun with this and make it your own. If you think Byron Buxton should get all 10 points, that's totally up to you. Or make up your own system of rank and comparison. Think you have a good system? Share it in the comments for us to all try. Even if you don't formalize your rankings in a chart, please leave a comment below with how you would rank the positions. Who would make your All-AL Central Preseason First Team? 

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Check back in coming days for conversations and discussions on the pitchers. 

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[tony&rodney]

Fun stuff. Interesting take to use Willi Castro as a DH when he never actually was used as a DH last year. The Guardians and Royals clearly are better off the bench than the other teams. Seems like picking teams one would choose the Tigers outfield and the Guardians bench. The DH position was not dominated by one player that I recall, with maybe a nod to David Fry of the Guardians.

Thus far the comparison tells me that the Twins really relied on their pitching last year to finish above .500.

[Doctor Gast]

Although projections are interesting & give us a guide. I'd look at the projected depth at each position & calculate that corporately not starters & bench players individually. Projections are imperfect, based on past stats & underlying conditions. I like Fangraph the best but still there are some projections I don't agree with. The most glaring to me is Keirsey's projection. They have him hardly playing anywhere. IMO Keirsey is our ace in the hole, He should be our main CF backup, 1st of all his defense & 2nd his offense which will continually get better. Emma will make a bigger impact & if you include Castro's WAR as OF depth where he belongs & not DH, our OF looks much better plus our underlying conditions look much better w/o Margot. DH is more of a problem.

[dxpavelka]

The key to everything you've written, as far as the Twins are concerned is Buxton's health and whether or not one or both of Larnach and Wallner prove that 2024 was not a fluke.  And, ideally, in two years, we're having this same discussion and centering on names like Rodriguez & Jenkins.

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Although projections are interesting & give us a guide. I'd look at the projected depth at each position & calculate that corporately not starters & bench players individually. Projections are imperfect, based on past stats & underlying conditions. I like Fangraph the best but still there are some projections I don't agree with. The most glaring to me is Keirsey's projection. They have him hardly playing anywhere. IMO Keirsey is our ace in the hole, He should be our main CF backup, 1st of all his defense & 2nd his offense which will continually get better. Emma will make a bigger impact & if you include Castro's WAR as OF depth where he belongs & not DH, our OF looks much better plus our underlying conditions look much better w/o Margot. DH is more of a problem.

Keirsay is a roster math problem. 

The act of simply placing Keirsay on the 26 man roster will require organizational philosophical adjustment. 

Don't get me wrong... I'm all for it... But it won't happen unless they do a 180 philosophically. 

Keirsay will most likely have to wait for an injury to specific players. Wallner and Larnach

Meanwhile they search for a right handed hitting outfielder. 

 

 

[jmlease1]

20 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

The key to everything you've written, as far as the Twins are concerned is Buxton's health and whether or not one or both of Larnach and Wallner prove that 2024 was not a fluke.  And, ideally, in two years, we're having this same discussion and centering on names like Rodriguez & Jenkins.

At this point, arguing against Wallner really means saying that his 2024 and his 2023 were both flukes. Which I'm sure some people will do, just because they can stand how often he strikes out, but considering his actual production in his time in MLB he's awfully effective.

The rankings overall look ok; I would argue that slotting Castro at DH is wrong, even if he's the most likely player to get 400+ ABs in 2025 among the remaining position players listed: he just isn't actually going to DH. And without him as the "10th starter" super-utility guy the Twins bench isn't that strong out the gate. Julien should be listed as the DH, and Castro with the bench guys. And while I would lower our ratings at DH as a result (despite still believing in a bounceback season for Julien), the overall OF/DH/Bench ratings for the Twins are pretty good for the division.

I think people forget just how good Buxton is and how much he a) actually played last season, b) didn't need a surgery in the offseason this year, and c) really produced for the lineup including being one of the only guys hitting down the stretch.

[TwinsDr2021]

3 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

The most glaring to me is Keirsey's projection. They have him hardly playing anywhere. IMO Keirsey is our ace in the hole,

28 year old career minor league player is the Twins Ace in the Hole? He is more like an off suit 5 or 6, but we can dream of him and Helman taking the league by storm this year.

IMO the Twins have the best outfield in the division, or the worst (if Buxton goes down, Wallner plays like the first month and Larnach plays like ever he has in the odd years) or if the Twins decide they have to platoon the lefties with lighter hitting righties.

[TwinsDr2021]

17 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

At this point, arguing against Wallner really means saying that his 2024 and his 2023 were both flukes. Which I'm sure some people will do, just because they can stand how often he strikes out, but considering his actual production in his time in MLB he's awfully effective.

If anybody is arguing Wallner isn't one of the best hitters in the American league against right handed pitchers (especially mediocre right handed pitchers) they are flat out wrong. I think the concern is that he or at least the Twins believe he can't hit lefties and just is a platoon guy, that makes him less valuable and really costs two spots on the roster. Or the concern could be the Twins send him out there everyday and it goes the way of the beginning of last season. Wallner is the same as almost the rest of the roster, we/they really don't know what they have - guys older than 25 that haven't established if they are regulars, platoon players, back ups or minor league guys.

[Doctor Gast]

19 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Keirsay is a roster math problem. 

The act of simply placing Keirsay on the 26 man roster will require organizational philosophical adjustment. 

Don't get me wrong... I'm all for it... But it won't happen unless they do a 180 philosophically. 

Keirsay will most likely have to wait for an injury to specific players. Wallner and Larnach

Meanwhile they search for a right handed hitting outfielder. 

 

 

Don't tell me they are putting Keirsey on hold again while they are looking for their next Margot/ Gallo? Theoretically, Larnach is DH, Castro is LF, Keirsey is the 4th OF, and Martin is utility. LH OFers-  Keirsey, Wallner & Larnach; RH OFers- Buxton, Martin, (BH) Castro & Helman. Buxton needs to be our main RH CFer &  Keirsey our main LH CFer.

This backward thinking killed us last season. If we want to be a serious team, the 4th OFer has to be Keirsey's to lose.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

28 year old career minor league player is the Twins Ace in the Hole? He is more like an off suit 5 or 6, but we can dream of him and Helman taking the league by storm this year.

IMO the Twins have the best outfield in the division, or the worst (if Buxton goes down, Wallner plays like the first month and Larnach plays like ever he has in the odd years) or if the Twins decide they have to platoon the lefties with lighter hitting righties.

Keirsey is a very underrated, a player who has greatly proved himself at the AAA level, The fact that he is a little late bloomer & that the Twins have held him back at AAA is not his fault but the fault of Twins' philosophy. Many have written him off before he is even given a chance to play at MLB. Which is a grave mistake. Yeah, let's pick up another Margot or Gallo that makes a lot more sense. Give Keirsey, like Castro, a chance to prove himself before casting stones.

"Ace in the hole" is an American English idiom that means a hidden advantage or resource that's kept secret until it's needed

Buxton is our top performer that's not the intent of my comment but Keirsey is a hidden (he's overlooked) gem that is very much needed when played will amaze a lot of people & put us over the top.

[TopGunn#22]

I would shift Castro in the LF role and have Larnach as the DH, or possibly an average of Larnach/Miranda as the DH.  Castro's glove, especially as good as he is in LF specifically, means he's the LF and Larnach the DH in this comparison.  The clear "All A.L. Central OF" would be Kwan in LF, Buxton in CF and Carpenter in RF.

But Wallner has the potential to come close to Carpenter in OPS and OPS+ this season.  Carpenter will hit for a higher average and strike out less, but Wallner's power potential, especially if he can reach 500+ AB's is exciting.  I think TwinsDr2021 is right.  Wallner has put together 2 straight seasons of an OPS over .800.  He's done it in roughly half a season both times.  He needs to take a step forward and show a little something against LHP and even though there will be a slump or two to deal with, Wallner needs to be in RF for at least 120 games.

The same is true with Larnach.  The key to both Larnach & Wallner is continuing to be solid hitters against RHP but to show some kind of improvement against lefty's.  

Throw Castro into the OF mix and it's clear the Twins have the best collection of OF's in the A.L. Central.  Buxton is the key, and a mid-season call up of E-Rod could really take it to another level.  I would like to see Keirsey get a solid chance because I love his defense.  But if he makes the team out of spring training, I wonder if he's just a bridge until E-Rod gets called up.  

The certainty of our OF stands in in stark contrast to the uncertainty of our IF.  With the exception of Correa at SS each of 1B, 2B & 3B is a question mark as to who will be deployed to each position.  Potential aces in the hole are minor leaguers like Eeles and Keaschall.  The ceiling of what they could give the Twins at 1B & 2B is really interesting.  What is their floor?  

[chpettit19]

19 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Don't tell me they are putting Keirsey on hold again while they are looking for their next Margot/ Gallo? Theoretically, Larnach is DH, Castro is LF, Keirsey is the 4th OF, and Martin is utility. LH OFers-  Keirsey, Wallner & Larnach; RH OFers- Buxton, Martin, (BH) Castro & Helman. Buxton needs to be our main RH CFer &  Keirsey our main LH CFer.

This backward thinking killed us last season. If we want to be a serious team, the 4th OFer has to be Keirsey's to lose.

FYI Helman is a right-handed hitter.

[Riverbrian]

55 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Don't tell me they are putting Keirsey on hold again while they are looking for their next Margot/ Gallo? Theoretically, Larnach is DH, Castro is LF, Keirsey is the 4th OF, and Martin is utility. LH OFers-  Keirsey, Wallner & Larnach; RH OFers- Buxton, Martin, (BH) Castro & Helman. Buxton needs to be our main RH CFer &  Keirsey our main LH CFer.

This backward thinking killed us last season. If we want to be a serious team, the 4th OFer has to be Keirsey's to lose.

I have no reason to think that they won't be looking for the next Margot. Keirsay will really really really get buried down deep in the process waiting for specific players (left handers) to get hurt. And... And... My guess is that Emma will be the first left handed call up if Wallner or Larnach get hurt so Keirsay would drop to number two on the list.  

The roster decisions that the Twins are tasked with making have two leg irons attached to them. Financial constraints and this self imposed over protection of left handed hitters that requires 6 roster spaces to execute. 4 spots if Julien doesn't make the opening day roster and back to 6 if he is called up. Adherence to this philosophy to the degree they execute requires/DEMANDS the utilization of 6 roster spaces.  

Your plan for CF with Keirsay would place Buxton on the short side of the CF platoon. I can't see that happening that would give Keirsay 75% of the playing time to Buxton at 25%.

I believe that Castro and Martin will slide over to CF unless that RH OF they are looking for very little money can play some CF. While Castro and Martin slide around the diamond. Larnach will get OF work and not be just a DH. 

Once you cross the three left handed hitter threshold. Wallner for example will have to SUDDENLY start facing left handers. And they have kept him away from left handers for TWO YEARS. OK... Matt... Need you now sorry you didn't get any warm up. Adherence to the philosophy caps the number of left handed hitters you can keep on the 26 man roster. 

Keirsay is dead in the water unless this extreme philosophy that requires a Margot to execute is simply stopped. If they simply stop... What a waste the past two years have been for young developing Wallner, Larnach and Julien. 

 

[LambchoP]

I think they need too look past which side he hits from and make Keirsey our fourth outfielder. He can play all three positions including a good CF and I think he'll hit better than Martin. He can also give us some speed and stolen bases, something we sorely need. I doubt we'll see much of him without an injury to Larnach or Wallner since they seem intent on finding a right. I really hope Wallner can limit his strikeouts as and stay healthy. In a full year I can see him blasting 30+ homers easy 

[Doctor Gast]

8 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

FYI Helman is a right-handed hitter.

That's why I put him with the RH OFers.

RH OFers- Buxton, Martin, (BH) Castro & Helman.

I placed Helman last because he's not on the active roster & indicated Castro as a switch hitter who is used as a RH OF.

But thanks anyway.

[chpettit19]

This is a fun exercise but really hard to do with the Twins position players. And their front office being notoriously slow/patient/whatever descriptor you choose when it comes to offseason roster moves doesn't help. There are just so many questions on what this team will look like come opening day. For example, if these are the 4 starters I'm given for this grouping Castro is in LF and Larnach is the DH (don't think many would argue there) but Castro may actually be the starting 2B if Lee et al don't put on a show in spring. 

Buxton, Kwan, and Greene are probably the 3 best OFers in the division if you're going with 1 CF and 2 cOF. Greene and Carpenter vs Larnach and Wallner is an interesting match on the corners, but I'd give the edge to the Tigers paring as I think they'll play better defense while the offense will be pretty similar. Buxton clearly the best CFer, but then it's a question of how many games you get. If he plays 100 games the Twins CFers will very likely have the best stats in the division this season. Kyle Isbel is actually my comp for Keirsey. Neither are lighting fast, but both are solid defenders. Neither is somebody you want at the top of your lineup, but I think Keirsey can OPS in the .650 range like Isbel. I wouldn't want either as my primary CFer, but as the 4th OFer I'd be happy.

Manzardo has the chance to run away with the best DH in the division if he hits like Cleveland hopes he does.

Bench is hard to define and rank. It really goes deeper than the 10th-13th guys on the opening day roster. It's more about depth at the top of the minors as well. I don't know enough about all the other team's AAA and AA squads to comment there, but it's pretty easy to see the Twins being anywhere from the best to the 4th best in the division. I just assume Chicago is going to be the worst at everything until they prove otherwise.

[chpettit19]

11 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

That's why I put him with the RH OFers.

RH OFers- Buxton, Martin, (BH) Castro & Helman.

I placed Helman last because he's not on the active roster & indicated Castro as a switch hitter who is used as a RH OF.

But thanks anyway.

Oh, I read that as switching to switch hitters with Castro and Helman. My bad.

[jmlease1]

30 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Keirsey is a very underrated, a player who has greatly proved himself at the AAA level, The fact that he is a little late bloomer & that the Twins have held him back at AAA is not his fault but the fault of Twins' philosophy. Many have written him off before he is even given a chance to play at MLB. Which is a grave mistake. Yeah, let's pick up another Margot or Gallo that makes a lot more sense. Give Keirsey, like Castro, a chance to prove himself before casting stones.

"Ace in the hole" is an American English idiom that means a hidden advantage or resource that's kept secret until it's needed

Buxton is our top performer that's not the intent of my comment but Keirsey is a hidden (he's overlooked) gem that is very much needed when played will amaze a lot of people & put us over the top.

Listen, I don't want another Margot either, but you're overrating Keirsey, who didn't break out until he repeated AA at 26 in 2023 (when he was 1.6 years older than the average player in the league). He got promoted to AAA in that year and was ok at the plate. Last season was the first time he "proved" himself in AAA at 27, which earned him a cup of coffee in MLB. This isn't someone who was dominating the minors and the Twins just ignored it or held him back: he hasn't been that good.

Keirsey has good speed and would be a good defensive cover in CF and would add value as a late-inning defensive replacement in the corners too. but he hasn't proven he can hit in MLB, and his minor league experience isn't that impressive. The .845 OPS in saint Paul last season looks great, until you realize the team OPS last season was .778. or that Ed Julien, who was a total mess at the plate last season still pumped out an .800 OPS in AAA. Or that Austin Martin had the same kind of OPS that Keirsey did.

I'd love for him to be a late-bloomer and be able to slot in as a defensive-minded 4th OF who could hit around league average, but the jump from AAA to MLB is very difficult and Keirsey hasn't proven anything.

[TwinsDr2021]

54 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Keirsey is a very underrated, a player who has greatly proved himself at the AAA level, The fact that he is a little late bloomer & that the Twins have held him back at AAA is not his fault but the fault of Twins' philosophy. Many have written him off before he is even given a chance to play at MLB. Which is a grave mistake. Yeah, let's pick up another Margot or Gallo that makes a lot more sense. Give Keirsey, like Castro, a chance to prove himself before casting stones.

"Ace in the hole" is an American English idiom that means a hidden advantage or resource that's kept secret until it's needed

Buxton is our top performer that's not the intent of my comment but Keirsey is a hidden (he's overlooked) gem that is very much needed when played will amaze a lot of people & put us over the top.

I wish the best for Keirsey, but I am a realist, he was 14th in OPS in the international league and he was one of he oldest in the list, same with his AA numbers in 2023. He has done nothing that hundreds of other players older than 25 have done in AA and AAA players. You know who has minor league numbers similar (minus the stolen bases) to him Jake Cave and Cave put up a 1.113 OPS last year in AAA and Andrew Stevenson.

I understand what Aces in the Hole means, and again Keirsey doesn't fit that definition.

The best Keirsey can hope for is start in AAA and tear up the league and somebody gets hurt (Which hurts the Twins) and come up with an actual starting spot. Or he sits on the bench in the majors and plays left field against right handed pitcherd and holds his own and forces the Twins to a bigger role. If he gets either of those two things and doesn't take advantage he will probably end up playing ball with Stevenson over seas.

The Twins don't like Wallner or Larnach to hit against left handed pitchers does anybody think they will let Keirsey? So being left handed behind Wallner, Larnach, maybe EROD makes Keirsey a long shot to be anything more than a defensive/runner sub.

[DJL44]

Did not realize the Royals outfield was this bad. They should be able to improve by picking up scraps at the end of free agency.

Quote

Royals: MJ Melendez (-0.3) 

Royals: Kyle Isbel (1.4)

Royals: Nelson Velazquez (-0.5) 

Royals: Hunter Renfroe (-0.1)

 

[NYCTK]

2 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

At this point, arguing against Wallner really means saying that his 2024 and his 2023 were both flukes.

It's not a stretch. He could very well be a product of survivor bias. His career BABIP is 359. He hits the ball hard, obviously, so we can think it should be north of 300, but do we really think he's the hitter to match Aaron Judge? Or is it more likely he's more comparable to a player like Brent Rooker and Ohtani (327), Yordan Alvarez (322), Soto (305), or maybe even Schwarber (261). 

2 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

I think people forget just how good Buxton

And forget how weak CF is across the league. That's why his value is so high even with his inability to stay on the field. 

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I think the concern is that he or at least the Twins believe he can't hit lefties and just is a platoon guy

I do have this concern, but others here have lessened this concern to some degree. But he still has to show it in the majors. Hope he gets all the opportunity to do so, at least in the first third of the season. 

ZiPS doesn't have nearly this concern either, 746/817 OPS platoon split. 

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I would like to see Keirsey get a solid chance because I love his defense.  But if he makes the team out of spring training, I wonder if he's just a bridge until E-Rod gets called up.  

I think Emmanuel Rodriguez is already more likely to get a callup than Keirsey if there is a long-term need in the outfield.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

I have no reason to think that they won't be looking for the next Margot. Keirsay will really really really get buried down deep in the process waiting for specific players (left handers) to get hurt. And... And... My guess is that Emma will be the first left handed call up if Wallner or Larnach get hurt so Keirsay would drop to number two on the list.  

The roster decisions that the Twins are tasked with making have two leg irons attached to them. Financial constraints and this self imposed over protection of left handed hitters that requires 6 roster spaces to execute. 4 spots if Julien doesn't make the opening day roster and back to 6 if he is called up. Adherence to this philosophy to the degree they execute requires/DEMANDS the utilization of 6 roster spaces.  

Your plan for CF with Keirsay would place Buxton on the short side of the CF platoon. I can't see that happening that would give Keirsay 75% of the playing time to Buxton at 25%.

I believe that Castro and Martin will slide over to CF unless that RH OF they are looking for very little money can play some CF. While Castro and Martin slide around the diamond. Larnach will get OF work and not be just a DH. 

Once you cross the three left handed hitter threshold. Wallner for example will have to SUDDENLY start facing left handers. And they have kept him away from left handers for TWO YEARS. OK... Matt... Need you now sorry you didn't get any warm up. Adherence to the philosophy caps the number of left handed hitters you can keep on the 26 man roster. 

Keirsay is dead in the water unless this extreme philosophy that requires a Margot to execute is simply stopped. If they simply stop... What a waste the past two years have been for young developing Wallner, Larnach and Julien. 

 

I know you love platooning Brian but my idea is whenever they'd sub Buxton they'd do it against RHPs thus Keirsey would be our best choice. Although Martin was a much better choice over Margot, I'd still minimize his time at CF & Castro is stretched there. For being a LH hitter, Keirsey has pretty good splits vs. LHPs. When Buxton is down for any amount of time, Keirsey makes the most sense because as you indicated, most pitchers are RHPs.  As I stated before Larnach should have the most time DHing & emergency OF, so when Castro is subbing someone which is most of the time that leaves a space for Keirsey to fill in at LF when he isn't subbing Buxton. So even following their platooning mentality Keirsey makes a lot of sense, especially when you look how our defense stacks up w/o him.

I can't see Julien making the active list. He's not a 2Bman & he has a long way to adjust his hitting & learn 1B. But Julien is one of their pets so it doesn't matter if he's good at either.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I wish the best for Keirsey, but I am a realist, he was 14th in OPS in the international league and he was one of he oldest in the list, same with his AA numbers in 2023. He has done nothing that hundreds of other players older than 25 have done in AA and AAA players. You know who has minor league numbers similar (minus the stolen bases) to him Jake Cave and Cave put up a 1.113 OPS last year in AAA and Andrew Stevenson.

I understand what Aces in the Hole means, and again Keirsey doesn't fit that definition.

The best Keirsey can hope for is start in AAA and tear up the league and somebody gets hurt (Which hurts the Twins) and come up with an actual starting spot. Or he sits on the bench in the majors and plays left field against right handed pitcherd and holds his own and forces the Twins to a bigger role. If he gets either of those two things and doesn't take advantage he will probably end up playing ball with Stevenson over seas.

The Twins don't like Wallner or Larnach to hit against left handed pitchers does anybody think they will let Keirsey? So being left handed behind Wallner, Larnach, maybe EROD makes Keirsey a long shot to be anything more than a defensive/runner sub.

14th in OPS in the INT, League is pretty darn good for a true CFer. If he was DH, 1B or even RFer then we'd have something to worry about. Cave isn't & never was a decent CFer. Only if (which many people make the mistake) you gauge CF by bat only.

[NYCTK]

30 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Although Martin was a much better choice over Margot

That's like saying eating sand is much better than drinking bleach. Technically true. 

[DJL44]

The Twins would rank #2 in LF and #2 at DH in your spreadsheet if you swap Larnach and Castro. Castro has the 4th highest 2024 fWAR out of everyone you listed (Kwan, Greene, Buxton, Castro).

Looking at the other article, Castro would rank #1 at 2B in the division and that's probably the answer. He'd be a certain starter in the infield for the Twins either at 2B or 3B.

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I know you love platooning Brian but my idea is whenever they'd sub Buxton they'd do it against RHPs thus Keirsey would be our best choice. Although Martin was a much better choice over Margot, I'd still minimize his time at CF & Castro is stretched there. For being a LH hitter, Keirsey has pretty good splits vs. LHPs. When Buxton is down for any amount of time, Keirsey makes the most sense because as you indicated, most pitchers are RHPs.  As I stated before Larnach should have the most time DHing & emergency OF, so when Castro is subbing someone which is most of the time that leaves a space for Keirsey to fill in at LF when he isn't subbing Buxton. So even following their platooning mentality Keirsey makes a lot of sense, especially when you look how our defense stacks up w/o him.

I can't see Julien making the active list. He's not a 2Bman & he has a long way to adjust his hitting & learn 1B. But Julien is one of their pets so it doesn't matter if he's good at either.

Use 13 players... Pick them and show their typical utilization assume health for everybody for the entire season. That way I can clearly see what you are suggesting. 

I still see a math problem based on how the Twins do things. 

 

[Doctor Wu]

21 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I would shift Castro in the LF role and have Larnach as the DH, or possibly an average of Larnach/Miranda as the DH. 

That makes more sense than using Castro as the DH. 

[Doctor Wu]

19 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I think Emmanuel Rodriguez is already more likely to get a callup than Keirsey if there is a long-term need in the outfield.

Rodriguez is certainly close, but I would think that he makes more sense as an everyday starter as opposed to a platoon role like Keirsey would have. 

[DJL44]

33 minutes ago, Doctor Wu said:

Rodriguez is certainly close, but I would think that he makes more sense as an everyday starter as opposed to a platoon role like Keirsey would have. 

They aren't going to platoon Buxton. When he's injured (hence the long-term need) they'll bring up Rodriguez.