If the Twins Have a Moonshot Trade for Controllable Star Power in Them, Who Will Be Involved?

[Mark G]

"At the moment, it's young talent they have and money they lack, so perhaps the time is now for such a move".

Yes, but this FO is in love with the illusion of having this horde of young talent, and hides behind the excuse they weren't given enough money, so what is the likelihood that they will relinquish said young talent for the above mentioned possible moonshot?  

Personally, I like reading these articles; speculation and dreaming, if nothing else, whiles away the winter days waiting for next year.  But if I am going to dream, I want to dream up something other than a corner outfielder or infielder.  If we are going to take a shot at the moon, go for a young catcher with years of control; one who can hit more than his weight (hell, if I am going to dream, have him hit more than MY weight), and throw runners out.  One who hasn't had 3 major injuries before his first arbitration year would be nice as well.  Stability behind the plate for a few years between him and Jeffers; wouldn't that would be a nice dream.  That and one more RP; you know, someone like Clase in Cleveland.  But then, this is only a dream.  

[Doctor Wu]

20 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Butler, Miller, etc. should be nearly impossible to acquire without a severe overpay (say Joe Ryan and Emmanuel Rodriguez for Mason Miller). I am skeptical, although it always worth the conversation.

Yeah, I'm also VERY skeptical about any trades like that. I can't see the A's giving up any of those good young players at this stage. And if they do, you said it; it would be a huge overpay on the Twins part. 

[dxpavelka]

I hate to bring it up but with the possible exception of Miller these are not stars but merely pieces with star POTENTIAL. You know, potential, like Kirilloff & Larnach and a million other guys had.

[FargoFanMan]

Walker would be the only guy I’d be interested in. He seems like a change of scenery type prospect. He’s showed high contact in the minors. The type of guy that makes an adjustment and becomes a star. Teach him 1B and you’re set there for 5 years. Most likely won’t cost you Jenkins, Emma or Keaschall. If it does you just don’t make the deal. The others…no thanks. Especially Curtis Mead? Nope.

[LambchoP]

I think we have plenty of OF prospects on the way. We have enough IF too except for first baseman. I'm not sure we want to hand Miranda and everyday first base job without a decent backup plan. Catcher is another position that needs some work. We want to dump Vasquez but have nobody who can replace him ATM. We could also use another starter and a few pen arms, especially a good lefty. The only way we'll get any of these is trading some of our prospects. Thing is, nobody wants to trade Jenkins, Erod or Keaschal. Same with Fest and Mathews

 That leaves Raya, Culpeper, Lewis, Eeles, Mccusker etc. can we expect to get an impact starting caliber player from these guys? I'm expecting no moves or trades other than a few minor league deals. We'll be watching a lot of young players and major league debuts this year.

[Otaknam]

I cannot imagine any scenario where the team has soured enough to move on from Royce Lewis for Mead. Even Aaron Judge can have a long period where the strikeouts and poor at bats pile up. Lewis has the potential to be the face of the franchise, so let’s put a sock in that discussion. As for making a moonshot trade, this team made a moonshot signing of Correa when they thought they were poised for a playoff run. I don’t see another moonshot by trading their high end minor league talent, especially EROD, Keaschall, or Raya or Jenkins. But maybe some other package for Miller would be possible. 

[Doctor Gast]

IMO none of these players fulfill any big need we have. Also the problem isn't the core, it's FO not able to pull off essential trades to fill essential holes. So quit blaming the core, & FO get your act together to see the holes & quickly fill them.

[chpettit19]

13 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

I agree with that and I liked the article a lot and the Twins should make 1 or 2 of those moves.

The article shows a can-do approach that the Twins FO, Falvey seems to lack. DO at least one of those moves, bring in Hays and/or Laureano and sign Jurickson Profar and Jesse Winker.

The offense is in dire need of depth and higher quality. My Twins planner brought in both Winker and Profar for under $130 MM but shed Vasquez and Paddack’s salaries.

Almost everybody is an injury or slump risk across the OF and IF. Count me, also as one who believes DaShawn Keirsey, Jr. can be the first adequate Byron Buxton insurance the Twins have had in years, if ever.

Considering Profar himself is going to cost roughly Vasquez and Paddack's combined salaries to sign I'm not sure how you propose bringing in Winker and Hays and/or Laureano on top of him for less than 130 mil in payroll when the Twins are at over 135 mil in payroll already. Better be trading Correa, Lopez, or Buxton to pull that off. Trading Castro wouldn't even get them under 130 mil if you're bringing in those 4 other vets. You're adding 25 million in payroll with those signings while dropping 17.5 and are already 7ish over the 130 mark. That math doesn't work.

The Twins don't have money to bring in multiple vets. They need to cut money just to get to 130 mil in payroll. 

[NYCTK]

17 hours ago, weitz41 said:

Jordan Walker would be an add that I would be interested in. Not as an OFer but as a 3rd baseman. He only went to the OF because of Arenado. From what I read it sounds like was a pretty good there.

I'm not sure where all this trade Lewis stuff came from. 1/2 a season does not sour me on him. Baseball isn't instant gratification or stardom. 

Royce Lewis

25

MIN

AL

0.7

82

325

292

40

68

16

0

16

47

0

0

28

74

.233

.295

.452

.747

107

.315

99

132

5

0

0

5

2

5D/H4

.747 ops and 107 ops+ that isn't terrible

25

MIN

AL

2.9

161

744

691

80

199

29

13

4

74

21

12

41

87

.288

.330

.385

.715

92

.327

90

266

9

4

5

3

.715 ops and 92 ops+

2.5x more ab and 2x games played..Same age and their 2nd season in the bigs..and this is?

Kirby Puckett

Kirby played twice as much, at a much more important defensive position with much better defense. 

In comparison we have people wondering if Royce can even play 3rd or if he should be viewed as a 1B or even a DH going forward. 

If that's actually the discussion, I'm perfectly fine trading away Royce. 

[bean5302]

20 hours ago, Patzky said:

And what is Oakland (sorry I won't stop that) Really up to? They spent a small fortune today for Severino..

The Athletics have been saying they're building since the beginning of last year. It follows their small market rebuild pattern. 3-4 years of not making the playoffs followed by 3 years of open window.

[bean5302]

4 hours ago, Mark G said:

...Yes, but this FO is in love with the illusion of having this horde of young talent...

Rooker, Steer, Encarnacion-Strand, Gipson-Long, Petty, Miller, Hajjar, Povich, Wade, Baddoo, Wells...

The Twins have cast off a lot of young talent through trades or failing to protect players. In particular, they traded all 5 selections they made in the first 4 rounds in 2021.

[PatPfund]

On 12/5/2024 at 12:10 PM, bean5302 said:

What has Prielipp done to earn this shot at the MLB roster? I didn't realize the TD hype machine working overtime for him was a major qualification.

Prielipp has never pitched above A+ and he's never thrown more than 23 innings in a season. He's not a top 100 prospect and he's literally Twins prospect #20 for MLB. Moving him to the 'pen pushes Preilipp back 1 year for being available as a starter. Instead of potentially being a rotation arm in 2026, now it's going to be 2027 because he'll need another year to stretch him out, and the Twins won't know if he's even capable of being a starter at that point.

Prielipp is a power lefty, which the Twins desperately need.. Here are his totals for the 2020s. 2020: 4 games, 21 innings (Alabama). 2021: 7 innings ('bama, UCL tear). 2022: didn't pitch, drafted by Twins. 2023: 6.2 innings (FCL Twins, Cedar Rapids). 2024: 23.1 innings (Twins: FCL, A-, A+). In the minors he has struck out 48 in 30 innings, all as a starter. Also had two UCL operations in 3 years, all as a starter.

We could keep him on a steady progression as a starter, and at this rate, maybe he'd be deemed worthy of a shot in 2030 after 3 more UCL surgeries. Or you see if he can stay healthy in shorter stints as a reliever, and invite him to ST to see if his stuff plays against big leaguers, and if it does you roster him; if not assign him to AAA (or wherever else seems appropriate). People who strike out 1.5 batters per IP, and who don't need the stamina of a starter can often be fast-tracked to MLB. For example, Duran pitched 16 whole lousy innings at AAA, before the Twins converted him to a reliever, and he immediately became a dominant force. In a budget strapped year, the Twins should try catching that lightning again, or at least see if reduced work can shepherd Prielipp through his first fully healthy season since high school.

[weitz41]

3 hours ago, NYCTK said:

Kirby played twice as much, at a much more important defensive position with much better defense. 

In comparison we have people wondering if Royce can even play 3rd or if he should be viewed as a 1B or even a DH going forward. 

If that's actually the discussion, I'm perfectly fine trading away Royce. 

Yes, but on a purely stat based comparison. in 154 career games Lewis has 3.4 war .825 OPS and 122 OPS+ That is close to equal to Kirby age 25 season of 161 game played and his 2.9 war .715 ops and 92 ops+

Last year people were talking about Brook Lee moving to 1st.  Now it's Lewis. Relax folks

[old nurse]

20 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Yes. But Severino for 67 million over 3 years. That's more than a little. 

The Wood and Stripling contracts last year totaled 22.5 million. The Severino contract is being reported as 2 years plus an option. Exact numbers are not known.  At 67 million divided evenly over 3 years  is 22.3 million. They are not paying him 67 for one year. 

[Greglw3]

7 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Considering Profar himself is going to cost roughly Vasquez and Paddack's combined salaries to sign I'm not sure how you propose bringing in Winker and Hays and/or Laureano on top of him for less than 130 mil in payroll when the Twins are at over 135 mil in payroll already. Better be trading Correa, Lopez, or Buxton to pull that off. Trading Castro wouldn't even get them under 130 mil if you're bringing in those 4 other vets. You're adding 25 million in payroll with those signings while dropping 17.5 and are already 7ish over the 130 mark. That math doesn't work.

The Twins don't have money to bring in multiple vets. They need to cut money just to get to 130 mil in payroll. 

Look at my plan! it’s all there. Profar is projected for 3/39 MM, so 13, Winker can’t be more than 5 = 18 MM, which is Vazquez and Paddack’s salary and Laureano would be inexpensive as would Hays.

 

[chpettit19]

6 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

Look at my plan! it’s all there. Profar is projected for 3/39 MM, so 13, Winker can’t be more than 5 = 18 MM, which is Vazquez and Paddack’s salary and Laureano would be inexpensive as would Hays.

 

You don't have Laureano or Hays on that plan. So, you're basically at the 130 budget and you're suggesting adding between 3 (Either Laureano or Hays alone are going to cost at least 3 million) and 10 million (both together could cost up to 10) to the budget. Either way you're over the 130 budget in the plan you suggested on this thread.

And on a side note, the Twins are not signing Sasaki. No chance. It would be very cool if they did, though.

[Greglw3]

43 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

You don't have Laureano or Hays on that plan. So, you're basically at the 130 budget and you're suggesting adding between 3 (Either Laureano or Hays alone are going to cost at least 3 million) and 10 million (both together could cost up to 10) to the budget. Either way you're over the 130 budget in the plan you suggested on this thread.

And on a side note, the Twins are not signing Sasaki. No chance. It would be very cool if they did, though.

Sasaki has supposedly said he wants to play in a smaller market and Twins have most Intl pool money. w a few other teams. Laureano signed a $740,000 contract with Atlanta and a fair salary for Hays would be 5MM for 1 yr.

Notice I overpaid for Profar at 15 MM but saw 3/39MM projected last couple days so let’s say my ~129 MM + $740,000 +5 MM for Hays = ~ 136 MM if Profar accepts 3/39, then ~134 MM. There’s no way Polahd’s will squash a 134-136 MM payroll

 

Ya gotta admit, my roster is much stronger than last years :-)

[tony&rodney]

On 12/5/2024 at 1:29 PM, gmwannabe said:

T&R...if you want Ford included in your deal it will take more than Miranda and Topa. They may do Lewis for Miller straight up but I wouldn't. Lewis, Keaschall, & Raya might get it done for Miller and Ford. I'd do that.

Seattle wants to win now. Perhaps you can substitute Castro for Topa or add (R. Lewis, Miranda, Castro, Topa for Miller, Ford). Seattle doesn't want to trade Miller or any pitchers but this really boosts their offense. The Twins still have Lee, Keaschall, Martin, Eeles, and others. I would advocate a quick signing of Jose Iglesias as a utility player for around $3M too. Additional moves should also take place.

As others have said, a flurry of moves or nothing seems like the path. My vote goes to flurry.

[bean5302]

9 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

Sasaki has supposedly said he wants to play in a smaller market and Twins have most Intl pool money. w a few other teams. Laureano signed a $740,000 contract with Atlanta and a fair salary for Hays would be 5MM for 1 yr.

Notice I overpaid for Profar at 15 MM but saw 3/39MM projected last couple days so let’s say my ~129 MM + $740,000 +5 MM for Hays = ~ 136 MM if Profar accepts 3/39, then ~134 MM. There’s no way Polahd’s will squash a 134-136 MM payroll

 

Ya gotta admit, my roster is much stronger than last years :-)

Sasaki is not signing with a team who has a front office in disarray where the people who sign him aren't likely to still be around in 10 months. Not to mention the Twins have a terrible track record of how they've treated Korean and Japanese players.

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, PatPfund said:

...People who strike out 1.5 batters per IP, and who don't need the stamina of a starter can often be fast-tracked to MLB. For example...

...Duran pitched 16 whole lousy innings at AAA, before the Twins converted him to a reliever...

Prielipp struck out 1.5 per inning in A+ ball

Duran tore his UCL which is why he moved to the bullpen, though there was risk his 3 pitch repertoire wouldn't work as a starter.

[DJL44]

7 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Prielipp struck out 1.5 per inning in A+ ball

Duran tore his UCL which is why he moved to the bullpen, though there was risk his 3 pitch repertoire wouldn't work as a starter.

Prielipp also tore his UCL and this one is his replacement ligament after Tommy John surgery. 

[DJL44]

History shows that the best bang for your buck selling is relief pitching. The Twins could get some serious talent in return for Jax and/or Duran. If they get two young, talented players in return for a reliever they will come out ahead in the short and long term.

[chpettit19]

26 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

Sasaki has supposedly said he wants to play in a smaller market and Twins have most Intl pool money. w a few other teams. Laureano signed a $740,000 contract with Atlanta and a fair salary for Hays would be 5MM for 1 yr.

Notice I overpaid for Profar at 15 MM but saw 3/39MM projected last couple days so let’s say my ~129 MM + $740,000 +5 MM for Hays = ~ 136 MM if Profar accepts 3/39, then ~134 MM. There’s no way Polahd’s will squash a 134-136 MM payroll

 

Ya gotta admit, my roster is much stronger than last years :-)

Your roster isn't realistic. Roki Sasaki isn't coming here. There's not a single rumor out there that the Twins have even talked to him. He isn't chasing pool money if he's chasing money, he's chasing endorsement money, and MN isn't where he's getting that. Laureano signed that deal with Atlanta on May 29th, 2024 after he hit .143/.265/.229/.494 for Cleveland for the first 31 games of the year. It was a minor league deal. That 740k isn't even a contract he could sign for 2025 because the minimum salary in Major League Baseball next year is $760,000. The only reason you want to sign him is because he hit .296/.327/.505/.832 for Atlanta after signing that 740k deal. He's going to get about the same amount as Hays for 2025.

You're using 1 projection to say Profar is 3/39 and you overpaid at 15. The Athletic has him at 3/48 so you actually underpaid him according to them. I didn't say anything because the 15 is good enough for a rough estimate. But your 740k for Laureano is not an actual 2025 contract so your math is off by about $4 million. And, yes, there absolutely is a way the Pohlads will squash a 134-136 payroll if their limit is 130. They're not eating 4-6 million while they try to sell the team. The problem is your payroll, like I said in the beginning, is actually more like 140 because Ramon Laureano isn't signing for league minimum or a minor league deal in 2025. And they're definitely squashing a payroll 10 million over budget.

[tony&rodney]

Controllable star power? Arizona wants a LH DH and doesn't have much money to spend and the Twins could use a really good glove in the infield. Make a call and a query on Jordan Lawler. The Twins could offer Julien, Gabriel Gonzalez, and Kaelen Culpepper in return and perhaps add Jorge Alcala. All reasonable options need to be explored.