Which Non-Tendered Free Agent Outfielder Can Be of Most Help to Twins?

[DJL44]

5 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Keaschall isn't going to start the 2025 season in MLB, but he can be the extra bat you mentioned, unless you think they need another bat OFer on the opening day roster in which case we just simply disagree on that since they'll have Larnach, Buxton, Wallner, Rodriguez, Castro, and Martin in my scenario with Keirsey and Helman at AAA.

I would line them up:

LF - Larnach, CF - Buxton, RF - Wallner, AAA - Rodriguez, 2B - Castro, DNP-CD - Martin

I would like another outfielder to give Emmanuel Rodriguez at least a month in AAA, move Castro to 2B and keep Austin Martin off the 26-man roster. If Martin is on the roster, then they have room for another outfielder. Ramon Laureano, though he wasn't mentioned in the article, is a better option than Austin Martin. They could also make a trade to get themselves an outfielder. I agree that the three guys mentioned in this article are all bad fits. Hays is the best fit, but he will find someone willing to pay more than the Twins have available.

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I would line them up:

LF - Larnach, CF - Buxton, RF - Wallner, AAA - Rodriguez, 2B - Castro, DNP-CD - Martin

I would like another outfielder to give Emmanuel Rodriguez at least a month in AAA, move Castro to 2B and keep Austin Martin off the 26-man roster. If Martin is on the roster, then they have room for another outfielder. Ramon Laureano, though he wasn't mentioned in the article, is a better option than Austin Martin. They could also make a trade to get themselves an outfielder. I agree that the three guys mentioned in this article are all bad fits. Hays is the best fit, but he will find someone willing to pay more than the Twins have available.

I'd take Laureano over anyone on this list, but I'd be pretty surprised if he doesn't get a pretty similar deal to Hays. He was the better player last year, at least after he got to Atlanta. I think Atlanta would love to have him back if they could get him for 3 or 4 mil instead of 6. 

I understand I'm in the minority when it comes to starting Rodriguez in the majors. But I don't see any way the Twins can afford a difference maker financially or through trade. Their potential ceiling raiser is Rodriguez (and hopefully Keaschall mid-season but hitting 2 would be crazy for the Twins). I don't think spending April in AAA makes a significant difference in what his May through September would look like in the majors. But bringing in another Margot type would, for the worse. Not necessarily in his performance, but in his PAs. Because the Twins won't cut Margot 2.0. They'll let him OPS .626 all season while playing awful defense. So Emma will get 200 PAs instead of 600. And if he's the next Wallner and can OPS .850ish you're losing 400 PAs of 200+ pts of OPS to get him 100 PAs in AAA.

Give me the best baseball players. I think Emma is likely a better baseball player than anyone else they can realistically bring in. Even if he struggles for a month or 2. So give me him.

[DJL44]

4 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

So Emma will get 200 PAs instead of 600. And if he's the next Wallner and can OPS .850ish you're losing 400 PAs of 200+ pts of OPS to get him 100 PAs in AAA.

I think he'll get 300-450 PAs even if he starts in AAA. They are going to start him in AAA to gain the extra year of team control.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I think he'll get 300-450 PAs even if he starts in AAA. They are going to start him in AAA to gain the extra year of team control.

I hope he does. Wallner didn't 2 years ago (this year was his own fault for being really, really bad to start) when he was tearing St Paul apart, had already debuted the year before, and was too old for them to really care much about service time.

The extra year of control is a risk now. Pittsburgh isn't getting their extra year on Skenes after starting him in AAA for the first month. Now he's certainly not Skenes (no idea what the Pirates were thinking on that one), but he's the style of prospect that has the chance to win the RoY award with 450 PAs if he does what we hope.

Rodriguez is going to be one of the top 5 names before the season when it comes to Rookie of the Year, probably. Because people will expect the Twins to see him as ready or near ready. And he's a power/speed combo who'll be expected to put up the flashy counting stats of homeruns and steals that will draw attention. There aren't a ton of huge prospects in his way to winning the award. I'd guess him, Jobe, Mayo, Jung, and Dominguez are top 5 right now. I may have forgotten somebody, but he'll be up there with the top guys. Not saying you're wrong about that strategy, but it's a risk and they should at least think about it.

[nicksaviking]

Just throwing it out there, but if this team is going to be sold, service time and where these guys end up arbitration-wise in a few years may no longer have any impact on decision making. If Emmanual Rodriguez could sell more tickets and put more eyes on the TV than Dylan Carlson, that very well may be where the impetus is found.

Even if Falvey thinks he has a shot at keeping his job with new bosses, certainly he knows it doesn't lie in salvaging a .500 team with castoff vets like these but instead in developing exciting star players.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I'd take Laureano over anyone on this list, but I'd be pretty surprised if he doesn't get a pretty similar deal to Hays. He was the better player last year, at least after he got to Atlanta. I think Atlanta would love to have him back if they could get him for 3 or 4 mil instead of 6. 

I understand I'm in the minority when it comes to starting Rodriguez in the majors. But I don't see any way the Twins can afford a difference maker financially or through trade. Their potential ceiling raiser is Rodriguez (and hopefully Keaschall mid-season but hitting 2 would be crazy for the Twins). I don't think spending April in AAA makes a significant difference in what his May through September would look like in the majors. But bringing in another Margot type would, for the worse. Not necessarily in his performance, but in his PAs. Because the Twins won't cut Margot 2.0. They'll let him OPS .626 all season while playing awful defense. So Emma will get 200 PAs instead of 600. And if he's the next Wallner and can OPS .850ish you're losing 400 PAs of 200+ pts of OPS to get him 100 PAs in AAA.

Give me the best baseball players. I think Emma is likely a better baseball player than anyone else they can realistically bring in. Even if he struggles for a month or 2. So give me him.

I also start him in the majors....and get the struggles out of the way.

[Greglw3]

The only one I’d consider is Austin Hays.

It’s a myth to say that all the Twins need in the outfield in a RHH batter. The whole outfield is question marks. Larnach still hasn’’t cracked .250, Buxton is injury prone and very hot cold when playing as in chasing bad pitches and going on HR and Double binges. Hopefully Wallner is the Wallner of 2nd half 2024 but you never know.

The player you left out is Ramon Laureano who hit .296 for the Braves with an over .500 slugging percentage.

I think you missed the mark on Austin Martin by calling him an underpowered hitter and lousy defender.

I have two clips of Martin catches. It’s my contention that a lousy defender could never have made either of these plays in a million years. Did Martin make some mistakes? Yes, but he’s young and these two clips show his potential.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bEVVcsXyfpU

https://www.mlb.com/video/nolan-arenado-lines-out-to-center-fielder-austin-martin

As for the underpowered hitter, Martin hit .253, and the American League average in 2024 was .243. As far as power, he doesn’t need to be a power hitter. Further, he absolutely should not be a power hitter.

Twins fans have witnessed enough strikeouts in the last few years and the results are apparent. Very inconsistent offense. The Twins almost ruined Martin by trying to turn him into a power hitter and it went poorly. When he went back to his old approach, he started hitting again.

My contention is to measure success of a player, you have to look at the role they play on a team. One can’t legitimately say, Wallner had a higher OPS than Luis Arraez, 3 consecutive batting titles, and high on base for the leadoff slot, so therefore Wallner’s the better hitter.

I would sign Hays and Laureano.

Then, I’d go out and sign Jurickson Profar to play LF and Jesse Winker to DH.

I did that in my roster building plan and came in under $130 MM. We’ve seen what lack of quality OF depth can do from the day we first said hello to Jake Cave and a long list of Buxton backups.

I do think DaShawn Keirsey Jr. can fill in in CF. I’m one of his  biggest fans after watching lots of his offense and defense on Tom Froemming’s podcasts.

 

[DocBauer]

5 hours ago, DJL44 said:

They're both marginal CF options behind Buxton. Neither one seems to have the bat of an  MLB OF.

The problem is we don't know if they can be productive or semi productive ML bats because they've never been given a shot yet. And that really frustrates me considering this FO drafted them in 2018 in the 4th and 11th rounds. 

I understand neither has followed a smooth, linear path to this point. They both got off to good starts in 2018 in SSS. They both had poor 2019 seasons, Keirsey because he was hurt I believe. Neither had a 2020 season of course. In 2021, Helman began figuring it out. Keirsey was bad again, and hurt again. 

But since 2022, both of them have hit and flashed power/pop and speed and have a combined OPS of over .800 for the past 3 seasons. Those are reasons to at least take a look in case you have something to work with. Instead we get 1 dimension players like Garlick and Margot and others filling a roster spot and invariably being forced to play more than intended.

With Helman and Keirsey you have a couple late bloomers on 3 year runs of production that cost nothing but the league minimum if they're good enough to stick and contribute, even for the short term. And maybe they just bottom out. But to keep bringing in short side platoon guys of limited ability instead of giving players you have in the system a chance to do as well, or better, and for less $ is very frustrating to me.

[Fred]

7 hours ago, DJL44 said:

They're both marginal CF options behind Buxton. Neither one seems to have the bat of an  MLB OF.

To be fair, Hays is the only one of the three guys discussed to "have the bat of an MLB OF", at which point it all comes down to money.

[Fred]

5 hours ago, Sjoski said:

Well said. Reminds me of:

What do the Minnesota Vikings and a car in the junk yard have in common?

Neither one has a title.

Ouch! I didn't find that one bit funny. Well, OK, maybe a little. 😄

[Fred]

5 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

If you need these guys to play, then you aren't playing for anything meaningful in 2025 anyway. I just don't understand the point unless the point is to put on a façade of activity.

I was told that Margot "rakes LHP" only to do a little research, and find his career splits against LHP was .720 OPS with significantly lower results against RHP. Not my definition of "rakes", but at least he made up for it pinch hitting /sarc.

[Fred]

1 hour ago, Greglw3 said:

The only one I’d consider is Austin Hays.

It’s a myth to say that all the Twins need in the outfield in a RHH batter. The whole outfield is question marks. Larnach still hasn’’t cracked .250, Buxton is injury prone and very hot cold when playing as in chasing bad pitches and going on HR and Double binges. Hopefully Wallner is the Wallner of 2nd half 2024 but you never know.

The player you left out is Ramon Laureano who hit .296 for the Braves with an over .500 slugging percentage.

I think you missed the mark on Austin Martin by calling him an underpowered hitter and lousy defender.

I have two clips of Martin catches. It’s my contention that a lousy defender could never have made either of these plays in a million years. Did Martin make some mistakes? Yes, but he’s young and these two clips show his potential.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bEVVcsXyfpU

https://www.mlb.com/video/nolan-arenado-lines-out-to-center-fielder-austin-martin

As for the underpowered hitter, Martin hit .253, and the American League average in 2024 was .243. As far as power, he doesn’t need to be a power hitter. Further, he absolutely should not be a power hitter.

Twins fans have witnessed enough strikeouts in the last few years and the results are apparent. Very inconsistent offense. The Twins almost ruined Martin by trying to turn him into a power hitter and it went poorly. When he went back to his old approach, he started hitting again.

My contention is to measure success of a player, you have to look at the role they play on a team. One can’t legitimately say, Wallner had a higher OPS than Luis Arraez, 3 consecutive batting titles, and high on base for the leadoff slot, so therefore Wallner’s the better hitter.

I would sign Hays and Laureano.

Then, I’d go out and sign Jurickson Profar to play LF and Jesse Winker to DH.

I did that in my roster building plan and came in under $130 MM. We’ve seen what lack of quality OF depth can do from the day we first said hello to Jake Cave and a long list of Buxton backups.

I do think DaShawn Keirsey Jr. can fill in in CF. I’m one of his  biggest fans after watching lots of his offense and defense on Tom Froemming’s podcasts.

 

Both Jake and Cave are 4 letter words. Coincidence? I think not

[nicksaviking]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I also start him in the majors....and get the struggles out of the way.

Yeah, I normally wouldn't mind him getting AAA reps, but I'm looking at next year like the 1989 Cleveland team. Not the real one, this one:

Play the kids, just have fun with it, embrace the chaos and incompetence and don't take it seriously, unless you're seriously trying to make the owner look foolish. 

[DocBauer]

9 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

No thanks to these 3 and any of the other 1 year vet deals with the goal of finding a league average bat who isn't a complete disaster in CF. Give me Emmanuel Rodriguez on the opening day roster with Keirsey in AAA ready to fill in as needed. Or if Emma "skipping" AAA is too much for you put Keirsey on the opening day roster and give Emma a month in AAA to make yourself feel better about things. But take the upside.

Stop shooting for average and being shocked that the team maxes out at 84 wins and first round playoff exits. Stop seeking out players who need to be put in ideal situations to succeed and being shocked when those ideal situations aren't easily found on a regular basis over 162 games and are really hard to manufacture in the playoffs. Yes, Correa is expensive and most prospects (even the top ones) fail, but here's a news flash: you need Correa and top prospects to win. Emma may fall flat on his face. Just like Carlson did. Carlson is who he is. Why in the world would you sign a failed prospect who's best hope is that he's a solid defender and bad bat instead of just using your internal solid defender who still has the chance of being better than a bad bat? Even if Emma is just an average bat you've already improved upon the Carlson signing because he's every bit the defender Carlson is. For cheaper. Shoot, Keirsey can defend and be a bad bat for cheaper.

We disagree on giving Rodriguez a spot on opening day. I just think he missed so much time last season, unfortunately, that a little time at AAA would do him good to make a couple adjustments, see some decent pitching, and get in a groove. But I fully appreciate your perspective on running with him and let him learn on the job. He might just be so talented he grows in to the job quickly. I sure wouldn't be upset if that's the way they go.

What frustrates me, and has for a couple years now, is the idea of marginal, 1 tool players being brought in who end up playing more than wanted/expected and living with poor performance. No more Garlicks or Margots PLEASE.

I'm repeating myself, but why grab someone who you just can't count on to do anything but be that 1 tool player who's stretched for anything else? Even IF they promote Rodriguez to the opening day roster, if you can free up some $, why not add a Grichuk or a Laureano as a RH bat who can actually hit RH pitching to augment the roster? 

And to further repeat myself, why on earth did the Twins wait until late September to FINALLY give Helman and Keirsey their first shot? You have 2 guys who have a combined 3 year OPS above .800 in the upper minors that you refuse to look at as possible role players with pop and speed and defense in deference to Margot? That's just a short-sighted waste of opportunity.

[DJL44]

4 hours ago, DocBauer said:

The problem is we don't know if they can be productive or semi productive ML bats because they've never been given a shot yet. And that really frustrates me considering this FO drafted them in 2018 in the 4th and 11th rounds. 

Neither Keirsey nor Helman has produced in AAA like they belong in MLB. An 800 OPS in AAA is not impressive.

[TopGunn#22]

Thank You DJL44 !1  I read the outline on Austin Hays THREE TIMES and just couldn't see where they had listed his probable cost.  I read your comment, went back and checked again...and there it was right at the top.  I never cease to amaze myself...

I still think Hays is worth looking into.  While I agree that his $6.4 cost is dead even with Castro, and that I would rather have Castro of the two, I have no idea what the Twins current brain trust actually is planning.

Actually, I've complained about the Twins seemingly never having a plan in past off seasons because they always seem to be so late to the dance with any moves.  It's almost like they wait on purpose and let the market dictate to them, rather than identifying a player who could be a solution.  Then, all that's left to them is dumpster diving.  

I would much rather move forward with some of their young talent.  But sometimes you need a bridge to get that talent ready to make the jump.  There ARE certain vet players that can be signed for affordable salaries that can be helpful.  Santana was one last year.  Michael Taylor the year before. But the Gallo, Shoemaker, Margot types of vets are far too often what we end up with.

I'm looking forward to a new ownership group that takes owning a sports franchise more like how the Wilf's run the Vikings than how the Pohlad family has run the Twins.  

[DocBauer]

46 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Neither Keirsey nor Helman has produced in AAA like they belong in MLB. An 800 OPS in AAA is not impressive.

It's not? Let's just say you automatically take away a 100 points away from that. You still have right about league average for 2024.

I've NEVER stated EITHER of Helman and Keirsey would RAKE, or be above league average. If they did that, they'd be starters somewhere. I am only stating they MIGHT be around league average, or slightly below. Maybe they'd surprise! But we're talking about guys with some talent and ability who might be good bench options and fill in players who have a role. You need those guys as well. 

My argument continues that they've just never been given a chance to show if either could be a decent, solid ML hitter and provide depth rather than some 1 tool limited RH hitting bat. I'd much rather give them a shot than another Garlick or Margot 1 tool limited player. Ugh!

[DJL44]

14 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

I think you missed the mark on Austin Martin by calling him an underpowered hitter and lousy defender.

I have two clips of Martin catches. It’s my contention that a lousy defender could never have made either of these plays in a million years. Did Martin make some mistakes? Yes, but he’s young and these two clips show his potential.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bEVVcsXyfpU

https://www.mlb.com/video/nolan-arenado-lines-out-to-center-fielder-austin-martin

Austin Martin has the athletic tools to play outfield. The first clip actually shows you why he's been so bad. See how long it takes him to react to the ball after it was hit? Martin had the worst reaction time to the ball after it is hit in all of MLB. It destroys his range despite his speed.

He's also very inconsistent and misplayed several outs into hits and singles into doubles. There were several plays where it was a total clown show.

[DJL44]

8 hours ago, DocBauer said:

It's not? Let's just say you automatically take away a 100 points away from that. You still have right about league average for 2024.

The typical drop from AAA to the majors is 150-200 points of OPS.

[chpettit19]

10 hours ago, DocBauer said:

We disagree on giving Rodriguez a spot on opening day. I just think he missed so much time last season, unfortunately, that a little time at AAA would do him good to make a couple adjustments, see some decent pitching, and get in a groove. But I fully appreciate your perspective on running with him and let him learn on the job. He might just be so talented he grows in to the job quickly. I sure wouldn't be upset if that's the way they go.

What frustrates me, and has for a couple years now, is the idea of marginal, 1 tool players being brought in who end up playing more than wanted/expected and living with poor performance. No more Garlicks or Margots PLEASE.

I'm repeating myself, but why grab someone who you just can't count on to do anything but be that 1 tool player who's stretched for anything else? Even IF they promote Rodriguez to the opening day roster, if you can free up some $, why not add a Grichuk or a Laureano as a RH bat who can actually hit RH pitching to augment the roster? 

And to further repeat myself, why on earth did the Twins wait until late September to FINALLY give Helman and Keirsey their first shot? You have 2 guys who have a combined 3 year OPS above .800 in the upper minors that you refuse to look at as possible role players with pop and speed and defense in deference to Margot? That's just a short-sighted waste of opportunity.

Oh, I definitely realize I'm in the minority when it comes to starting Rodriguez in the majors. But you've actually laid out one of the reasons I'd do it. To avoid the next Margot, Gallo, Garlick, Farmer, Luplow, etc. signing. 

I can't stand the 1-tool specialists. I don't understand the logic and we've seen it play out year after year as to why the logic doesn't work. Just get me the best overall ball players and I'll take my chances. I'll take 2 months of Emma struggling with a .600 OPS before taking off with 4 months of an .800 OPS over Margot having a whole season of a .625 OPS. I want to collect as many tools as possible. I don't think they're finding a better shot at tools than him on the FA market or through a trade. So I'll take the early lumps for the later reward. But I realize not many are going to agree with that as it's seen as the riskier move.

[chpettit19]

4 hours ago, DJL44 said:

The typical drop from AAA to the majors is 150-200 points of OPS.

I'll note that even 200 points off Keirsey's AAA OPS from 2024 puts him above what Margot did in the majors in 2024. And just 9 points short of what De La Cruz did in 2024. Well above what Carlson did. Would've been about an 85 OPS+.

150 pts off would've had him at basically league average (about .005 pts below). As a center fielder that's absolutely MLB worthy. He's a great example of opportunity costing some prospects based on the organization they're in. If he's in KC's organization and Kyle Isbel is in MN's he's getting Isbel's ABs on a playoff team last year. Instead he's playing in St Paul.

[TopGunn#22]

The other aspect of "one-tool specialists" is that they have to be "ELITE" with that one tool to be worthy of holding that roster spot.  At least on a winning team.  They can't be Very Good, or even just Good.  They need to be ELITE.

The quintessential "one tool player" the Twins have had in the last 10 years or so was Nelson Cruz.  He couldn't play the field.  All he could do was hit.  But boy could he HIT.  The Twins were Division Champs in 2019 and 2020 and Cruz was ELITE.

I'm completely in the camp with Doc Bauer and chpettit19, I'd rather see the Twins go with one of their rookies than a below average vet.  This is especially true if coming in "at budget" is more important than trying to win a World Series.  

Adding a vet like Chili Davis helped the Twins win the World Series.  Would the Twins have won in 1991 if they had promoted their version of E-Rod instead of signing Chili?  Probably not.  But winning a World Series is obviously not a priority of the Pohlad family for 2025, so after 3 consecutive seasons of solid production in the minor leagues, maybe it IS time to give Keirsey and Helman a legitimate shot.  

You can consider Keirsey and Helman as "fringy" players.   But guys like E-Rod and Keaschall are considered excellent prospects.  BOTH have been mentioned as Rookie of the Year candidates.  If the goal is not to win a World Series in 2025 (and it clearly is NOT) then it makes far more sense to go with one or both of E-Rod and Keaschall.  It becomes more likely if one or both tear it up in spring training.  If one or both struggle, it's an easy call to have them in St. Paul to marinate for a bit.  

[DJL44]

28 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'll note that even 200 points off Keirsey's AAA OPS from 2024 puts him above what Margot did in the majors in 2024. And just 9 points short of what De La Cruz did in 2024. Well above what Carlson did. Would've been about an 85 OPS+.

Is that what we're hoping for? Slightly better than Manny Margot? I want an outfielder that can help them win games.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Is that what we're hoping for? Slightly better than Manny Margot? I want an outfielder that can help them win games.

In general? No. But as the 4th or 5th outfielder for league minimum on a team with very limited means for upgrading their team this year? Yeah, I'll take it.

I'll definitely take it over a guy who can't field and who's OPS is entirely built on hitting lefties. And if he's the top end of the scale and he's a league average bat who can legitimately play center field I'm taking that as my 4th outfielder all day long. Especially for league minimum.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

9 hours ago, DocBauer said:

It's not? Let's just say you automatically take away a 100 points away from that. You still have right about league average for 2024.

I've NEVER stated EITHER of Helman and Keirsey would RAKE, or be above league average. If they did that, they'd be starters somewhere. I am only stating they MIGHT be around league average, or slightly below. Maybe they'd surprise! But we're talking about guys with some talent and ability who might be good bench options and fill in players who have a role. You need those guys as well. 

My argument continues that they've just never been given a chance to show if either could be a decent, solid ML hitter and provide depth rather than some 1 tool limited RH hitting bat. I'd much rather give them a shot than another Garlick or Margot 1 tool limited player. Ugh!

I agree wholeheartedly.  Are they likely to become stars?  Probably not, but they could provide some decent league average backup, which is what we are asking them to do.  Players like these get short shrifted all the time because they are too old or lack a certain pedigree.  We don’t want anything to do with them because they aren’t on a trajectory to become marquee players.  We don’t need them to develop into stars.  Sometimes just being “solid” for two or three years is useful to the team.  

[DJL44]

9 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

In general? No. But as the 4th or 5th outfielder for league minimum on a team with very limited means for upgrading their team this year? Yeah, I'll take it.

I'll definitely take it over a guy who can't field and who's OPS is entirely built on hitting lefties. And if he's the top end of the scale and he's a league average bat who can legitimately play center field I'm taking that as my 4th outfielder all day long. Especially for league minimum.

I would love Keirsey and Helman to be the AAA depth we know they'll need to make it through the season. They're perfect to bounce back and forth between MLB and AAA as needed.

[chpettit19]

26 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I would love Keirsey and Helman to be the AAA depth we know they'll need to make it through the season. They're perfect to bounce back and forth between MLB and AAA as needed.

I'd certainly prefer that, but I don't see the path to anyone significantly better. Trade Paddack, doesn't hurt at all (although I'd put him in the pen as a 2 inning weapon). Trade Vazquez, only saves you a couple million after you sign another middling veteran glove only catcher. There's still no real money there to truly upgrade this spot, in my opinion. And that's why I'm on the Rodriguez train. You want to upgrade it? He's the best option. Because once you sign the veteran who's slightly better than Margot you're stuck with them. All year. No matter what. We all know it. Doesn't matter if he hits like Carlson while fielding like De La Cruz. He's here all year because they don't DFA position players. 

I'd love a true upgrade in LF and using Larnach at DH most of the time. But I don't see the path to that. I see a whole bunch of paths to Margot 2.0. And I want nothing to do with it. Laureano and Hays could be intriguing for 3-5 mil. But if they get the Cleveland Laureano or the Philly Hays are we going to be happy that Keirsey is OPSing .850 in St Paul while we watch Laureano OPS .500 in Minneapolis? Hays playing bad defense and OPSing .670 really better than Keirsey OPSing .650 and playing good defense? Guess that one may come down to what they'd do with the extra money. But at least Keirsey could play CF in that scenario.

I'm just saying I don't think this is a debate between Keirsey and the 5th best free agent outfielder. I think it's a debate between Keirsey and a veteran Keirsey they can't send down and won't DFA. I think a half-assed "upgrade" is actually more harmful to overall roster construction than just running with all your young guys with options. At least they can move those guys around as needed and won't sit on them all year while they suck.

[Greglw3]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Austin Martin has the athletic tools to play outfield. The first clip actually shows you why he's been so bad. See how long it takes him to react to the ball after it was hit? Martin had the worst reaction time to the ball after it is hit in all of MLB. It destroys his range despite his speed.

He's also very inconsistent and misplayed several outs into hits and singles into doubles. There were several plays where it was a total clown show.

You said the HR robbing clip shows his slow reaction time, destroying his range and he made one of the best over the fence HR robbing plays I’ve seen?

And how does a player with destroyed range make the second spread out diving catch?

You’re asking a rookie to step in and not have slumps in the field, where you wouldn’t ask Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach, Edouard Julien, Royce Lewis to go slump free at the plate in their first year.

[DJL44]

5 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

You said the HR robbing clip shows his slow reaction time, destroying his range and he made one of the best over the fence HR robbing plays I’ve seen?

And how does a player with destroyed range make the second spread out diving catch?

You’re asking a rookie to step in and not have slumps in the field, where you wouldn’t ask Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach, Edouard Julien, Royce Lewis to go slump free at the plate in their first year.

No, the HR robbing clip didn't require that much range. That ball was in the air a long time and he was waiting to time his jump.

The spread out diving catch happened because he was a tick late running in on the ball. The best CF make that catch without diving.

It isn't a slump. His range is in the 5th percentile (95% of outfielders are better) because his jump is 2 feet below average. He is a great athlete who reacts WAY too late. I think that he can improve, but it will take 1000 reps (or more). I don't know how much he can improve because he's already 25 years old and has been a professional outfielder for several seasons. It might be an undiagnosed vision issue.

Austin Martin Stats: Statcast, Visuals & Advanced Metrics | baseballsavant.com

[RpR]

4 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

The other aspect of "one-tool specialists" is that they have to be "ELITE" with that one tool to be worthy of holding that roster spot.  At least on a winning team.  They can't be Very Good, or even just Good.  They need to be ELITE.

The quintessential "one tool player" the Twins have had in the last 10 years or so was Nelson Cruz.  He couldn't play the field.  All he could do was hit.  But boy could he HIT.  The Twins were Division Champs in 2019 and 2020 and Cruz was ELITE.

I'm completely in the camp with Doc Bauer and chpettit19, I'd rather see the Twins go with one of their rookies than a below average vet.  This is especially true if coming in "at budget" is more important than trying to win a World Series.  

Adding a vet like Chili Davis helped the Twins win the World Series.  Would the Twins have won in 1991 if they had promoted their version of E-Rod instead of signing Chili?  Probably not.  But winning a World Series is obviously not a priority of the Pohlad family for 2025, so after 3 consecutive seasons of solid production in the minor leagues, maybe it IS time to give Keirsey and Helman a legitimate shot.  

You can consider Keirsey and Helman as "fringy" players.   But guys like E-Rod and Keaschall are considered excellent prospects.  BOTH have been mentioned as Rookie of the Year candidates.  If the goal is not to win a World Series in 2025 (and it clearly is NOT) then it makes far more sense to go with one or both of E-Rod and Keaschall.  It becomes more likely if one or both tear it up in spring training.  If one or both struggle, it's an easy call to have them in St. Paul to marinate for a bit.  

Spring training will show where they go.