Projecting Minnesota Twins’ 2025 Starting Rotation After Arbitration Decisions

[gman]

I like the Twins starting pitching situation to begin the 2025 year. I think it'll be better by the end of the season and that's OK. I also believe that at least 2 of the starters at ST Paul will prove themselves to be ready for the majors and I expect Festa to be one. The Twins have enough developing depth to be able to cover reasonable injury concerns.

Should the Twins keep Paddock? Most don't seem to think so and I think he would be a bigger help out of the bullpen. There are times when the Twins needed more 5th and 6th inning shutdown relief and they didn't have it. Having a couple more good arms in the pen could make their starters look that much better. Seems like too often they were hoping  an out of gas starter could get out of an inning before bringing in a relief pitcher to start a new inning.

[Danchat]

This is the year where we see if the "pitching pipeline" we've spoken for years of actually comes to fruition. The top three starters are quality options, but can the young arms sustain the depth? Does SWR return to being a good enough #4 starter and prove that how he ended the year was a fluke? Can Festa and/or Matthews take a big step up after receiving their lumps in their rookie years?

I have very little faith in Paddack due to injuries and lack of effectiveness, and this front office has shown zero ability to find a good enough #5 starter on the market. It's down to the young'uns to develop into capable options, or else another injury like Ryan's will sink the rotation again.

I would push for another major acquisition like Odorizzi/Gray/Lopez trades, but it's hard to see that happening this offseason.

[old nurse]

22 hours ago, DocBauer said:

The Twins top 3 are pretty damn good. Period. SWR just needs to prove he can be as good as he was in 2024. He actually got better, and more confident as the season went along. You could see the growing confidence on the mound. He did grow tired late in the season, surpassing career IP totals. He's still quite young. I've read multiple times about STUFF PLUS, and how good his pitches rate. If that's really accurate, then he needs to put guys away a little sooner to take the next step. But if he only threw as good this season as last, he's a solid arm in the rotation. But he's definitely got room to take another step forward. 

Festa was really impressive, for the most part, as a rookie making his debut as well. His BB weren't awful at 3.2 per 9, and his K rate of 10.8 was impressive. A couple early appearances inflated his ERA, but I believe his ERA was right around 4 after his first 4 or 5 appearances. Nothing wrong with that for a rookie at all. He's not a finished product by any means, but the stuff is there. If the curve he's dusting off/working on can be even decent, he gives batters something else to look at and think about. No offense to SWR, but I can see Festa as the #4 guy in the rotation by mid season.

This has the makings of a good to very good rotation! 

Matthews was pressed in to ML action early. He still showed promise. And his rise last season was pretty remarkable. Hopefully, everyone is healthy and he sits at AAA for a couple months before being needed. Morris is just behind Matthews in the pecking order, and might be just as good. He also could use a little more AAA time. While not on the 40 man, which Raya is, I wouldn't be shocked if Lewis and Culpepper weren't more ready to debut over the younger Raya, despite his potential. They're simply older, and have thrown more innings. 

I don't dislike Paddack at all. Further removed from TJ, and more time to stretch out and get a feel for his change, I'd be fine keeping him. If he's 100%, he's got some upside to be a solid back of the rotation arm. But it's that upside for someone else, young arms on hand, and the need to find some financial breathing room that makes me believe he's moved elsewhere. 

It's been a very long time since the Twins have been able to march the kind of talent to the mound to start games that's they've had the past few seasons, including 2025. And I can't recall a time in recent memory when they had this many good looking young arms arriving, or getting ready to knock on the door.

Maybe somebody will write a nice article about SWR’s STUFF numbers. Of course it would be behind the paywall.

[old nurse]

19 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

If Ryan is healthy the answer is nobody

 

If healthy the Twins are not even close to the Dodgers or Seattle.

[mikelink45]

23 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

How many teams can throw three better guys at the top?

Dodgers, Phillies, Mariners, Padres too start with, but wait until after FA to settle on the full answer. 

 

[Rosterman]

The Twins have a solid mix of arms to keep a pretty intact, and hopefully getting better, rotation for the next three seasons at a reasonable controllable cost. We forget that Pablo is still the same age as Ryan and Ober, actually.

Add in a few folks like Andrew Morris who could surprise us in 2025. Rotation is NOT the issue for the Twins. 

[dxpavelka]

17 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

Our three top starters are very good, better than average for sure. That said, I don't think that any one of those three pitchers truly qualifies as the "elite" type that will be penciled in for Cy Young award consideration (sorry, Pablo!) and will cause opposing teams to lose a night's sleep . Yes, the rotation is good, but I still don't think we have a true shut-down ace like we did when Santana was here, or even Liriano in his prime. But hey, Lopez and Ober seem like they COULD turn a corner and become that sort of ace, but I'm still waiting. 

Never said they had an ace.  Just said the not many teams have a better top three.  Especially if Joe is healthy. 

[dxpavelka]

13 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Three guys is not "a luxury of depth".  That is my point.

READ the question.  How many teams have a better top  3.  Never said anything about a "luxury of depth."  Didn't even say our top three is BETTER.  Just said not many are better.

 

[dxpavelka]

13 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Nobody?  You mean to say you would take a healthy Twins SP1-3 over every other team in baseball?

Homerism at it's finest.

Is that REALLY what I said.  The question is how many would you take over the Twins 1-3.  If healthy our 1-3 is as good as anybody.  Did NOT say better.  Said as good.

[dxpavelka]

12 hours ago, PatPfund said:

Right now the Twins top three is Lopez (great), Ober (good), ....umm, umm, SWR? Festa? Paddack? Until Ryan is back actually pitching, and shows the injury hasn't set him back, and shows that he can pitch like last year, but not injure his shoulder again, and until we know what inning restrictions he might be under, he isn't a number 3. The deep questions that go with all of the other possible #3s show rotation is not currently a team strength.

Even if I spot you Ryan, how about the Dodgers having Glasnow, Yamamoto, and Ohtani. Or sub in Dustin May, or sub in Tony Gonsolin. The point is that there were 20 pitching staffs with a better group ERA than the Twins. Rotation depth was a problem going into last season, they did nothing, and the rotation finished the year running on fumes. This is not an area of strength (especially to trade FROM).

How many had a better top three before Ryan got hurt? 

[dxpavelka]

12 hours ago, bean5302 said:

LOL, Joe Ryan elevates the entire rotation to elite, does he?

Dude.  Did I say anything about the entire rotation?  TOP three. That's all I said.  Before Ryan went down how many teams had a better top 3?

[dxpavelka]

11 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I like the Twins pitching more than many. And I'd actually focus on the position player side this offseason if I were in charge. But this is a pretty outlandish claim. The Dodgers have Ohtani, Glasnow, Yamamoto, and Snell who are all better than anyone the Twins can throw. That's 4 guys better than anyone on the Twins staff. I'd easily take Strider, Sale, and Schwellenbach over Lopez, Ryan, and Ober. Phillies can run out Wheeler, Sanchez, Nola, and Suarez. The Mariners run out Gilbert, Castillo, Kirby, Miller, and Woo who are probably all better than anyone the Twins have. I may even take Skenes, Jones, and whoever the Pirates put at #3 over the Twins guys. 

The Twins have a very nice top 3. But to suggest they're the best top 3 in baseball is pretty wildly off base.

Did I at any point say the were the best top 3?  READ what I wrote.  I simply said how many teams have a better top 3?  But if you REALLY want to look at it go look at the numbers AT TIME RYAN WENT DOWN.  All three were among the two dozen best starters in baseball at that time. 

[dxpavelka]

3 hours ago, old nurse said:

If healthy the Twins are not even close to the Dodgers or Seattle.

Did I at any point say the were the best top 3?  READ what I wrote.  I simply said how many teams have a better top 3?  But if you REALLY want to look at it go look at the numbers AT TIME RYAN WENT DOWN.  All three were among the two dozen best starters in baseball at that time. 

[dxpavelka]

3 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Dodgers, Phillies, Mariners, Padres too start with, but wait until after FA to settle on the full answer. 

 

Did I at any point say the were the best top 3?  READ what I wrote.  I simply said how many teams have a better top 3?  But if you REALLY want to look at it go look at the numbers AT TIME RYAN WENT DOWN.  All three were among the two dozen best starters in baseball at that time. 

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Did I at any point say the were the best top 3?  READ what I wrote.  I simply said how many teams have a better top 3?  But if you REALLY want to look at it go look at the numbers AT TIME RYAN WENT DOWN.  All three were among the two dozen best starters in baseball at that time. 

The Twins top 3 are not as good as any of the combinations of pitchers I listed. It's not about being better than those combinations, they are worse than them. So the comment I responded to about there being no top 3 better than the Twins when Ryan is healthy is wrong. Yelling at everyone on the thread doesn't change that. 

The Twins don't have the best top 3 in baseball. They aren't tied for the best top 3 in baseball. The Twins aren't in the discussion for the best top 3 in baseball. There are multiple teams with more than 3 starters who are better than any individual starter the Twins have. This is a ridiculous debate.

As for all of us reading what you actually wrote, you actually wrote that when Ryan IS healthy nobody has a better top 3. Is is present tense, not past tense. So you didn't say that when Ryan went down nobody had a better top 3 you said today, right now, this very moment nobody has a better top 3. If what you meant was that WHEN Ryan went down the Twins had the best top 3 in baseball you should've said "when Ryan WAS healthy." But you didn't. So a bunch of us disagreed and some of us provided examples as to why you're wrong. So maybe next time you want to yell, you should actually read what you wrote. Because a whole bunch of time passed since Ryan was healthy and you have to count what Ober and Lopez's results were during that time. Are they all still top 2 dozen starters now?

[old nurse]

On 11/27/2024 at 12:23 AM, dxpavelka said:

If Ryan is healthy the answer is nobody

 

There is where you said it.  So when you tell others to read what you wrote you better go back and edit your posts 

[JD-TWINS]

On 11/26/2024 at 8:25 PM, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Did you seriously write that the Twins have a luxury of depth at SP?  Really?

3 quality starters, a broken-down vet, a rookie that went downhill after teams got a look at him and a whole bunch unproven question marks?

I have no idea how to respond to that.

 

I disagree in general but can’t argue that it’s some major strength. Ryan’s health is the biggest question mark for me.

I don’t see Paddack in the rotation ……… traded, or he’s the “upgrade” in the Pen.

Not going to look it up but SWR must have started 25 games in ‘24……,to me, he’s a reasonable #4/#5 guy & I think he proved that…..ran out of gas last 4-5 starts.

I like Festa. Don’t see a real downside having him slotted #5/#4 in the rotation. After a Top 5, Team will be in a similar spot to most clubs, they’ll have to rely on unproven young guys to back fill…….not too many Teams outside of Seattle - L.A. have a long string of quality starters 1-5 plus a few.

[JD-TWINS]

7 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

The Twins top 3 are not as good as any of the combinations of pitchers I listed. It's not about being better than those combinations, they are worse than them. So the comment I responded to about there being no top 3 better than the Twins when Ryan is healthy is wrong. Yelling at everyone on the thread doesn't change that. 

The Twins don't have the best top 3 in baseball. They aren't tied for the best top 3 in baseball. The Twins aren't in the discussion for the best top 3 in baseball. There are multiple teams with more than 3 starters who are better than any individual starter the Twins have. This is a ridiculous debate.

As for all of us reading what you actually wrote, you actually wrote that when Ryan IS healthy nobody has a better top 3. Is is present tense, not past tense. So you didn't say that when Ryan went down nobody had a better top 3 you said today, right now, this very moment nobody has a better top 3. If what you meant was that WHEN Ryan went down the Twins had the best top 3 in baseball you should've said "when Ryan WAS healthy." But you didn't. So a bunch of us disagreed and some of us provided examples as to why you're wrong. So maybe next time you want to yell, you should actually read what you wrote. Because a whole bunch of time passed since Ryan was healthy and you have to count what Ober and Lopez's results were during that time. Are they all still top 2 dozen starters now?

Outside of the Dodgers & Seattle…..who are these 3 pitchers on one staff that are OBVIOUSLY better than the Twin’s top 3? Statistically, when Ryan went down the Twins were in the mix for a top 3, many of Lopez good innings/starts came in August & shortly after that timing & that boosted his place on the list.

Texas has some nice names that are on the 40 man but they don’t pitch much. Pittsburgh is in the come with their top 3. Maybe there’s another one or two?

[JD-TWINS]

7 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

The Twins top 3 are not as good as any of the combinations of pitchers I listed. It's not about being better than those combinations, they are worse than them. So the comment I responded to about there being no top 3 better than the Twins when Ryan is healthy is wrong. Yelling at everyone on the thread doesn't change that. 

The Twins don't have the best top 3 in baseball. They aren't tied for the best top 3 in baseball. The Twins aren't in the discussion for the best top 3 in baseball. There are multiple teams with more than 3 starters who are better than any individual starter the Twins have. This is a ridiculous debate.

As for all of us reading what you actually wrote, you actually wrote that when Ryan IS healthy nobody has a better top 3. Is is present tense, not past tense. So you didn't say that when Ryan went down nobody had a better top 3 you said today, right now, this very moment nobody has a better top 3. If what you meant was that WHEN Ryan went down the Twins had the best top 3 in baseball you should've said "when Ryan WAS healthy." But you didn't. So a bunch of us disagreed and some of us provided examples as to why you're wrong. So maybe next time you want to yell, you should actually read what you wrote. Because a whole bunch of time passed since Ryan was healthy and you have to count what Ober and Lopez's results were during that time. Are they all still top 2 dozen starters now?

Sorry - I need to find your list. Didn’t notice you addressed the others that are better than our 3 guys…..will check it out.

[tony&rodney]

Personally, I have more confidence in the pitching than the position players. I see a need for the Twins to upgrade the defense behind the pitchers with a minimum of one new outfielder and one new infielder. The current roster does not meet an average level of play in the field forcing the hitters to produce at very rates and the pitchers to throw more pitches and record more outs than should be expected. 

A player who does meet the standard, Carlos Correa, may be the key, whether he is traded or kept. The Twins need him at the plate and in the field yet his salary seems to stop the Twins from getting creative. We have already discussed Correa but I wonder how the Twins can proceed with him or without him. 

Perhaps when Soto and 2-3 more FA starting pitchers sign their contracts there will be discussions and some movement across baseball. I hope the Twins see fit to improve their roster. 

[dxpavelka]

8 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

The Twins top 3 are not as good as any of the combinations of pitchers I listed. It's not about being better than those combinations, they are worse than them. So the comment I responded to about there being no top 3 better than the Twins when Ryan is healthy is wrong. Yelling at everyone on the thread doesn't change that. 

The Twins don't have the best top 3 in baseball. They aren't tied for the best top 3 in baseball. The Twins aren't in the discussion for the best top 3 in baseball. There are multiple teams with more than 3 starters who are better than any individual starter the Twins have. This is a ridiculous debate.

As for all of us reading what you actually wrote, you actually wrote that when Ryan IS healthy nobody has a better top 3. Is is present tense, not past tense. So you didn't say that when Ryan went down nobody had a better top 3 you said today, right now, this very moment nobody has a better top 3. If what you meant was that WHEN Ryan went down the Twins had the best top 3 in baseball you should've said "when Ryan WAS healthy." But you didn't. So a bunch of us disagreed and some of us provided examples as to why you're wrong. So maybe next time you want to yell, you should actually read what you wrote. Because a whole bunch of time passed since Ryan was healthy and you have to count what Ober and Lopez's results were during that time. Are they all still top 2 dozen starters now?

Since there are no games played in November it's hard to say

 

[dxpavelka]

3 hours ago, old nurse said:

There is where you said it.  So when you tell others to read what you wrote you better go back and edit your posts 

When Ryan was healthy they had 3 of the top 24 starters in baseball.  Nobody else was better.

 

[old nurse]

3 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

When Ryan was healthy they had 3 of the top 24 starters in baseball.  Nobody else was better.

 

The other teams did not have starters go down earlier in the season? 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

On 11/28/2024 at 8:23 AM, JD-TWINS said:

I disagree in general but can’t argue that it’s some major strength. Ryan’s health is the biggest question mark for me.

I don’t see Paddack in the rotation ……… traded, or he’s the “upgrade” in the Pen.

Not going to look it up but SWR must have started 25 games in ‘24……,to me, he’s a reasonable #4/#5 guy & I think he proved that…..ran out of gas last 4-5 starts.

I like Festa. Don’t see a real downside having him slotted #5/#4 in the rotation. After a Top 5, Team will be in a similar spot to most clubs, they’ll have to rely on unproven young guys to back fill…….not too many Teams outside of Seattle - L.A. have a long string of quality starters 1-5 plus a few.

I agree that their top 3 is pretty solid (assuming Ryan is healthy).  My issue is the argument the Twins have depth at SP.  They really don't.  If they did, they would not have run out Varland as much as they did last year.  They have a solid top 3, SWR can be a decent SP4, but teams caught on to him the last third of the season, he needs to make the necessary adjustments.  EVERY single other SP on the rotation has huge question marks.  Until those questions are answered, there are 3-4 SP and nothing else.  That is not depth.  

[dxpavelka]

On 11/28/2024 at 12:28 PM, old nurse said:

The other teams did not have starters go down earlier in the season? 

Not my concern.  When Ryan was healthy they had 3 of the top 24 starters in baseball.  Nobody else was better.

[PatPfund]

On 11/27/2024 at 11:36 PM, dxpavelka said:

How many had a better top three before Ryan got hurt? 

Hate to try to get you back on topic, but the discussion here is about the projected 2025 rotation, and Joe Ryan DID get hurt and he hasn't pitched in a game since. Even if he has made a full recovery (and there is no way to know that until he pitches; the Twins are notoriously untrustworthy when it comes to injury updates), it almost certainly comes with innings restrictions, which seriously affects the depth of the '25 rotation. And if needs to adapt his throwing to prevent re-injury (the muscle didn't tear for no reason), Ryan might not be as effective, again affecting depth of rotation. This is not an area of strength.

[dxpavelka]

3 hours ago, PatPfund said:

Hate to try to get you back on topic, but the discussion here is about the projected 2025 rotation, and Joe Ryan DID get hurt and he hasn't pitched in a game since. Even if he has made a full recovery (and there is no way to know that until he pitches; the Twins are notoriously untrustworthy when it comes to injury updates), it almost certainly comes with innings restrictions, which seriously affects the depth of the '25 rotation. And if needs to adapt his throwing to prevent re-injury (the muscle didn't tear for no reason), Ryan might not be as effective, again affecting depth of rotation. This is not an area of strength.

And I guarantee you that one year ago not a single person on this website would have thought that at ANY point in the 2024 season would the Twins have had 3 of the top 24 starters in the big leagues.

 

[PatPfund]

On 11/30/2024 at 3:33 PM, dxpavelka said:

And I guarantee you that one year ago not a single person on this website would have thought that at ANY point in the 2024 season would the Twins have had 3 of the top 24 starters in the big leagues.

 

Still off-point, but also deeply incorrect. A year ago the Twins finished with one of the best rotations in MLB, and won a playoff series. They were returning Lopez, Ober, Ryan, and getting Paddack back after he looked fabulous in the playoffs in a bullpen role. They were going to lose one major piece in Gray, and the news about the budget made adding a new top pitcher look highly unlikely. But I don't know of many who had doubts about the top three.

[dxpavelka]

11 hours ago, PatPfund said:

Still off-point, but also deeply incorrect. A year ago the Twins finished with one of the best rotations in MLB, and won a playoff series. They were returning Lopez, Ober, Ryan, and getting Paddack back after he looked fabulous in the playoffs in a bullpen role. They were going to lose one major piece in Gray, and the news about the budget made adding a new top pitcher look highly unlikely. But I don't know of many who had doubts about the top three.

Did you REALLY think the top three would be top 24 in the bigs?  Be honest.