How the Twins Could Creatively Trade For This Star First Baseman

[Cody Schoenmann]

First base is arguably the Twins' greatest need this offseason. Though re-signing reliable veteran Carlos Santana would be a sound move, the organization could be incentivized to acquire this younger, more impactful option.

Image courtesy of © Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Keep your wits about you—a vital message to latch on to in dark times. We have been through this before and persevered, and we will survive again, as long as we organize, strategize, and lean on those we can unwaveringly trust. I am, of course, talking about enduring yet another offseason of mind-numbing inactivity from the Twins front office. Significant salary restrictions will effectively tie Twins decision-makers' hands behind their backs, making the proposition of a needle-moving offseason acquisition a mere fantasy, unless all or a part of the salaries for veterans like Christian Vázquez ($10 million) or Chris Paddack's ($7.5 million) are shed.

The threat of this offseason becoming a dreadfully dull experience for Twins Territory is scarily plausible. However, that doesn't mean dormancy is a certainty. It would be malpractice to sulk in sorrow, write this offseason off as a wash, and not spend time envisioning who would be a worthwhile addition for the playoff-hopeful Twins. So, let's take an in-depth look at the Twins' greatest area of need this offseason: First base.

The unexpected retirement of former top prospect Alex Kirilloff and the expected departure of surehanded veteran first baseman Carlos Santana has left the position bare. José Miranda (who has played 698 career innings at the position) is projected to become the primary starter, with Edouard Julien (19 1/3 innings) being his backup and potential platoon partner. Vázquez could also play the position in an emergency, but almost all of his value resides in his defensive prowess behind the plate.

In theory, Miranda and Julien could work well in a platoon partnership at the position, but it would be a big risk with a smallish reward to expect that. Taking a flier on a cheap, veteran first base option like Joey Meneses, J.D. Davis, or Jared Walsh could make sense, but the Twins value flexibility and are unlikely to lock themselves into this player archetype unless they are willing to come in on a minor-league deal. They could pursue a player who can play first base alongside other positions like Brandon Drury, Mark Canha, or Justin Turner. However, it would be unwise for the salary-strapped organization to spend what minimal resources they have on a veteran who could realistically produce at a below-replacement-level rate.

That said, the Twins can choose between two paths: They can roll with Miranda and Julien and hope both stay healthy and produce at a slightly above-average rate, or acquire a higher-caliber everyday starter at the position. They would be wise to pick the latter. At first glance, re-signing Santana would be a savvy choice. He displayed Gold Glove defense at the position while posting an admirable 114 wRC+ over 594 plate appearances. However, he might be outside Minnesota's price range:

The 39-year-old veteran should have a robust market, and if a team like the Chicago Cubs or New York Mets (who are set to lose Pete Alonso) decides to offer a multi-year deal, the Twins could quickly become a non-factor in the Santana sweepstakes. Although Twins ownership's frugal mode of operation likely negates any opportunity for a reunion with Santana, that doesn't mean the Twins are entirely out of the first base market.

While speaking with media last week at the General Managers Meetings in San Antonio, Twins President of Baseball Operations Derek Falvey noted that the team will have to "be creative if (they) want to make a lot of tweaks to the group." Like leaves falling from paper birch trees, the buzzword "creative" has become a fall tradition in the land of 10,000 lakes. Interestingly, there is a veteran impact first baseman the organization could use creative means to acquire: Yandy Díaz.

Díaz, 33, spent his first two seasons in MLB with Cleveland before being sent to the Tampa Bay Rays before the 2019 season. Since joining the Rays, Díaz has hit .289/.374/.440 with 707 hits, 74 home runs, and a 130 OPS+. The high-average right-handed hitting veteran shifted between third base and first base his first four seasons with the Rays before settling down at first, netting a combined 1,942 2/3 innings played at the position the last two seasons. His best season came in 2023 when he posted a 157 OPS+ while earning an All-Star bid and finishing sixth in AL MVP voting.

Díaz came down to earth last season. However, his performance was still commendable, slashing .281/.341/.414 with 158 hits, 14 home runs, and a 116 OPS+. The well-respected veteran is still among the most formidable bats in "the show", and would be a prized acquisition for the Twins. Díaz is slated to make $10 million next season, with a $12-million club option in 2024. At face value, this price tag is far too hefty for the parsimonious Twins. However, this is where the front office's knack for creativity comes into play.

The two impact trades the front office made last season (Jorge Polanco to the Seattle Mariners for Anthony DeSclafani, Justin Topa, Gabriel Gonzalez, and Darren Bowen; and Noah Miller to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Manuel Margot and Rayne Doncon) involved the partner team eating money. The Mariners (and San Francisco Giants) took on $8 million of DeSclafani's $12 million deal, and the Dodgers ate $6-$8 million of Margot's contract. Evidently, if the Twins acquire a veteran player under their current mode of salary-restricted operation, the partnering front office will have to take on most of the returning player's salary.

Hypothetically, the Twins could acquire Díaz and his $10 million from Tampa, with the Rays taking on roughly $6 million of his deal. In exchange, Minnesota would need to part ways with a more highly-regarded prospect for the similarly frugal Rays to take on dead money. Although parting ways with a highly regarded prospect isn't an easy pill to swallow, the reward could be netting a season of one of the best-hitting first basemen in baseball. Also, if a new ownership group purchased the franchise before next season, the team could potentially exercise his $12-million club option for 2026.

The long-time Rays corner infielder is a contact-skilled plus bat who would be a welcome insertion into the Twins' high-variance lineup. Díaz thrives against left-handed pitching (.923 OPS over 139 plate appearances last season) while holding his own against same-handed hurlers (.706 OPS over 482 PA). He could become the team's everyday first baseman, allowing Miranda to take on the role he did this past season of shifting between third base, first base, and designated hitter. Díaz joining the Twins also means the organization wouldn't have to rely on the inconsistent Julien, meaning the team could use him in a role that promotes flexibility or stash him at Triple-A as MLB-caliber depth. Despite being salary-restricted, the Twins front office should be able to create enough monetary flexibility to acquire at least one impact bat, and Díaz should be at the top of their wish list.

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[Fire Dan Gladden]

What "highly-regarded prospect" would you recommend the Twins move here to get the salary down?  I can't see them moving any of their AAA / low end MLB SP at the moment.  The prospects they brought up this year did not exactly torch the league.

[Brandon]

Would a trade of Paddack,  and Schoebel get it done?  We could also take less cash back in the trade if we can include Dobnak.  Options abound.

[gmwannabe]

The Rays won't take on any of his salary because they don't need to. At least 2 teams that have the money to pay him need a 1st baseman ( NY & Houston).

 

 

 

 

[bean5302]

I tend to agree with @gmwannabe. The Rays are not a team which pays salary on outgoing players. Yandy Diaz is not a negative value player as it stands, either. He has substantial value. BaseballTradeValues has him at +15.4. If you're asking the Rays to eat $6MM more, it's going to come at a premium. Maybe $12MM of surplus value.

First off, Christian Vazquez will be a target for the Rays. If the Twins eat $6MM of Vazquez and the Rays eat $6MM of Diaz, I think the deal could be made with the Twins tossing in Eddie Julien or Jose Miranda. Huge price to pay for 1 year of Diaz. If the Twins don't want to cover as much for Vazquez, Luke Keaschall is a prospect I could see going. Another big price. Don't forget, the deal would still require the Twins to clear $10MM more off the books to get to the $130MM cap, and without Vazquez's salary to clear, and Paddack's questionable value, Castro's potential to remain is almost certainly gone without another huge move.

Also, Jose Miranda has 1,110 innings playing 1B as a professional. He's not a noob, and Julien has 257 innings there as a professional. Guys don't just play full time DH at a batting cage until they get to MLB. Carlos Santana, who was a catcher, only had 4.1 innings in MiLB at 1B before Cleveland decided to make him a regular at 1B.

[Major League Ready]

39 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I tend to agree with @gmwannabe. The Rays are not a team which pays salary on outgoing players. Yandy Diaz is not a negative value player as it stands, either. He has substantial value. BaseballTradeValues has him at +15.4. If you're asking the Rays to eat $6MM more, it's going to come at a premium. Maybe $12MM of surplus value.

First off, Christian Vazquez will be a target for the Rays. If the Twins eat $6MM of Vazquez and the Rays eat $6MM of Diaz, I think the deal could be made with the Twins tossing in Eddie Julien or Jose Miranda. Huge price to pay for 1 year of Diaz. If the Twins don't want to cover as much for Vazquez, Luke Keaschall is a prospect I could see going. Another big price. Don't forget, the deal would still require the Twins to clear $10MM more off the books to get to the $130MM cap, and without Vazquez's salary to clear, and Paddack's questionable value, Castro's potential to remain is almost certainly gone without another huge move.

Also, Jose Miranda has 1,110 innings playing 1B as a professional. He's not a noob, and Julien has 257 innings there as a professional. Guys don't just play full time DH at a batting cage until they get to MLB. Carlos Santana, who was a catcher, only had 4.1 innings in MiLB at 1B before Cleveland decided to make him a regular at 1B.

Where is the "$130M cap" coming from.  I can't imagine the front office failed to learn a lesson last year.  I would assume they won't say anything even if they planned a slight uptick in spending because intent does not necessarily become reality.

[Jim wyllie]

As I've said before move Lewis to first base, sign loan moncado on the cheap to play 3rd with a good upside then move lee to second, that is the best route given the situation with payroll and lewis' defensive skill set

[RpR]

58 minutes ago, Jim wyllie said:

As I've said before move Lewis to first base, sign loan moncado on the cheap to play 3rd with a good upside then move lee to second, that is the best route given the situation with payroll and lewis' defensive skill set

While leaving a gapping whole at 2nd base.

The only place Lee showed  ability was at 3rd Base.

[chpettit19]

51 minutes ago, Jim wyllie said:

As I've said before move Lewis to first base, sign loan moncado on the cheap to play 3rd with a good upside then move lee to second, that is the best route given the situation with payroll and lewis' defensive skill set

The Twins don't need to add another guy who can't play a full season. Yoan Moncada has never played 150 games in a season. He played 144 in 2021 followed by 104 in 2022, 92 in 2023, and 12 this year. He's been a below average hitter just as often as he's been an above average one. His upside is nowhere near high enough at the age of 30 to be hoping this is finally the season he puts it all together.

I don't think the Twins are going to be giving up the prospect(s) needed to get Yandy, but Yoan Moncada isn't the answer either.

[Doctor Gast]

FO creativity has killed us. This means that the other teams dump off players they don't want or can easily live w/o to get what they need. Falvey isn't able to initiate this kind of move, he's always on the other end. I disagree with you that 1B is a priority & Diaz will not be cheap in players & salary & we'd have to trade away someone who we'd need more to afford him & after 2yrs he's gone! After that, we are in the same boat as now when Santana left. I rather invest in our own players at 1B. Santana has had what? 15- 20 yrs. at 1B, he should be good by now. Give Miranda a full year, we know he can hit, and his glove should be adequate until he improves when he is given enough time. Lewis could be an excellent choice to play alongside Miranda. There are a few options there so we don't have to go down that painful route.

[RpR]

31 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

 Give Miranda a full year, we know he can hit, and his glove should be adequate until he improves when he is given enough time.

Just like Cave, Gordon and Celestino.

[bean5302]

5 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Where is the "$130M cap" coming from.  I can't imagine the front office failed to learn a lesson last year.  I would assume they won't say anything even if they planned a slight uptick in spending because intent does not necessarily become reality.

Quotes from the Pohlads & Falvey which basically amount to payroll isn't going to be substantially cut, but it has a cap on it at last seasons number. Pohlad dodged and dodged and dodged the 2025 payroll question in an interview with Gleeman. There wasn't the typical "we have room for the right move" canned response. 

This is typical of what's being reported.
https://www.si.com/mlb/twins/minnesota-twins-news/its-business-as-usual-for-twins-this-offseason-amid-ownership-uncertainty-01jbymp4xq6a

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Quotes from the Pohlads & Falvey which basically amount to payroll isn't going to be substantially cut, but it has a cap on it at last seasons number. Pohlad dodged and dodged and dodged the 2025 payroll question in an interview with Gleeman. There wasn't the typical "we have room for the right move" canned response. 

This is typical of what's being reported.
https://www.si.com/mlb/twins/minnesota-twins-news/its-business-as-usual-for-twins-this-offseason-amid-ownership-uncertainty-01jbymp4xq6a

I would hope he has learned from last year.  He would have to be a blithering idiot to say anything definitive.  What he has said apparently is there is room for a move.  How does that infer a cap at a level we are probably already above with arbitration increases?  At face value that would suggest there is some additional payroll capacity, would it not?

[Doctor Gast]

10 hours ago, RpR said:

Just like Cave, Gordon and Celestino.

Cave, Gordon & Celestino we are talking about CF. That is an entirely different animal. CF is a premium defensive position, 1B is the least important one. At a defensive premium position, Twins showed their priority of bat over glove in running Cave out at that position year after year. 1B is the least important defensive position, where the priority is bat over glove. Miranda has shown a good glove at 3B where the transition to 1B is easier, much like the transition from CF to LF. Where the transition from LF to CF is more difficult, 1B to 3B. At 1B it is obvious that they can be more patient with Miranda.

[Otaknam]

Moving Lewis to first base, as one posting suggested, would be foolish. Lewis is very athletic and can be an everyday third baseman. Putting him at first, the easiest infield position, would waste his athletic talent. I hope they don’t trade Keaschall, who looks like an excellent everyday player for second base, making Julien a candidate for trade. Miranda still has value, as we saw during his record setting hit streak. DH and periodically playing third and first seems like the solution. 

[LambchoP]

I don't hate the idea, but I also don't think Diaz could outhit Miranda in a full season. I think we need to try and actually upgrade our first baseman with Walker, O'hearn, Mount Castle. If we can't swing a trade or sign anyone then either let Miranda run with it or do what I think is inevitable....move Lewis to first, Lee to second, Correa at SS and Miranda at third. Castro, Eeles, Julien and Keaschal can all be backup IF. 

[DocBauer]

It's an interesting idea. It really is. And I'm not necessarily against it. But I do see a handful of issues, some of which have already been stated.

1] If someone like the Mets need a 1B, they won't ask Tampa to eat $. That means the market has to be low for Diaz, or the payment high.

2] Paddack, at a minimum, has to be moved in order to make room for Diaz from a payroll perspective.

3] The Twins won't want to give up too much in prospect capital for what could point to only 1 year. So we're back to point #1 again.

4] Despite a Gold Glove and a solid year at the plate, it doesn't matter if Santana WANTS to play another 3 or 4 years. He's going to be 39 next year. I've only ever seen a handful of special bats still hit the ball well at 39 and 40. I don't see a long term deal or big $ foe him. Not saying he should be a Twins priority, just saying I don't think he's gone as a Twins option.

With Kiriloff's projected number off the books and if they could move all of Paddack's deal...(would the Rays be interested as part of the proposal?)...that's around $9M to work with. That's getting close to getting something done from a financial perspective.

I'd love to find the market slow and just sign Josh Bell or Goldschmidt for 1yr, or a 1 and 1 similar to Cruz a few years ago and just keep our prospects.

But this idea for Diaz is a sound one. I could be on board for this.

[RpR]

15 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Cave, Gordon & Celestino we are talking about CF. That is an entirely different animal. CF is a premium defensive position, 1B is the least important one. At a defensive premium position, Twins showed their priority of bat over glove in running Cave out at that position year after year. 1B is the least important defensive position, where the priority is bat over glove. Miranda has shown a good glove at 3B where the transition to 1B is easier, much like the transition from CF to LF. Where the transition from LF to CF is more difficult, 1B to 3B. At 1B it is obvious that they can be more patient with Miranda.

Least important only in your world.

The Twins got a full time 1st Baseman before Kirilloff was hurt, if 1st base was so unimportant they would not have done that.

Kirilloff was lousy there which is one reason they brought in Gallo who was a very good fielder.

Santana saved their buttocks many times.

Least important is bollocks, double plays need a 1st baseman , especially with the Twins can dig out, reach out and just plain stop pissant throws to first to astray.

They were not patient with Kirilloff, they will not be stupid and have a mediocre player there, ever.

[Doctor Gast]

21 hours ago, RpR said:

Least important only in your world.

The Twins got a full time 1st Baseman before Kirilloff was hurt, if 1st base was so unimportant they would not have done that.

Kirilloff was lousy there which is one reason they brought in Gallo who was a very good fielder.

Santana saved their buttocks many times.

Least important is bollocks, double plays need a 1st baseman , especially with the Twins can dig out, reach out and just plain stop pissant throws to first to astray.

They were not patient with Kirilloff, they will not be stupid and have a mediocre player there, ever.

If 1B was such an important need & Santana was the answer we should have gone further in the postseason than the year before? But in reality, Santana's glove didn't even get us to the postseason, with Santana we were able to achieve 4th place in AL Central. That's how important Santana's addition was.

[RpR]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

If 1B was such an important need & Santana was the answer we should have gone further in the postseason than the year before? But in reality, Santana's glove didn't even get us to the postseason, with Santana we were able to achieve 4th place in AL Central. That's how important Santana's addition was.

🤣', Lewis' lousy fielding and bat, Juliens Lousy fielding and bat plus rookies Matin and Lee's mediocre play kept us out of the Post Season no matter how good Santana was.☠️