Twins Rumor Round-Up: Will The Twins Deal From Their Roster Depth This Offseason?

[Brock Beauchamp]

MLB Trade Rumors recently wrote about the Twins' financial situation, their current payroll, and options for the coming offseason. Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic recently wrote about the Pohlads committing to keeping the 2025 payroll at roughly the level of the 2024 payroll.

The primary problem facing the Twins front office this offseason is that without doing anything through the winter, they're still roughly $10 million over last year's payroll number.

Obviously, the Twins need to shake up the roster (at least a little) after the worst collapse in team history. This means the one tool remaining in Derek Falvey's (admittedly empty) tool chest is to deal from the team's relative depth, primarily on the position player side. Some of the names that are due raises via arbitration (MLBTR estimates shown) are Willi Castro ($6.2 million), Ryan Jeffers ($4.7 million), Bailey Ober ($4.3 million), Joe Ryan ($3.8 million), Jhoan Duran ($3.7 million), Griffin Jax ($2.6 million), and Royce Lewis ($2.3 million).

This isn't an ideal situation for the Twins, as they will likely be forced to deal additional value and hope to recoup more value in return. They were able to achieve this goal with the Luis Arraez for Pablo Lopez trade but it's a fine line to walk and fraught with risk.

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[Reptevia]

“Obviously, the Twins need to shake up the roster…”. Is it though?  They made it to the 2nd round last year. “Obviously “ the window was open, and they needed to fill some holes. Did they?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

40 minutes ago, Reptevia said:

“Obviously, the Twins need to shake up the roster…”. Is it though?  They made it to the 2nd round last year. “Obviously “ the window was open, and they needed to fill some holes. Did they?

In 2023 when their payroll was 20% higher?

[Reptevia]

4 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

In 2023 when their payroll was 20% higher?

You took the time to respond to NOT make a point?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

2 hours ago, Reptevia said:

You took the time to respond to NOT make a point?

Sorry work interrupted mid thought… in 2023 the Twins made it to the DS for the first time in 20 years. Then they shed 20% of their payroll with only cutting Sonny Gray, and a bunch of the depth.

The Pohlads have made it clear they want to sell and won’t increase payroll over 2024, meaning, remaining 20% or more below 2023’s high water mark.

The Twins opened 2024 with $130m and added $0 at the deadline. In 2025, the current roster with assumed arbitration raises should be 135 to 140, no free agents.

If they won’t add, then they must subtract. How to improve by subtracting?

[mluebker]

14 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

If they won’t add, then they must subtract. How to improve by subtracting?

Luck.

[LambchoP]

Vasquez, Paddack and maybe Castro are all going to be trade possibilities I think. Castro probably has the most value. Problem is, Vasquez would be the best contract to get off our books at 10 million, but we don't have a backup catcher that's ready. I think any of our potential Castro replacements are a big step down too. Martin, maybe Eeles or Keaschal? I think we have decent in house replacements for Paddack, maybe we can get a good lefty reliever for him?

[Jeff K]

1 hour ago, LambchoP said:

Vasquez, Paddack and maybe Castro are all going to be trade possibilities I think. Castro probably has the most value. Problem is, Vasquez would be the best contract to get off our books at 10 million, but we don't have a backup catcher that's ready. I think any of our potential Castro replacements are a big step down too. Martin, maybe Eeles or Keaschal? I think we have decent in house replacements for Paddack, maybe we can get a good lefty reliever for him?

I think IF the Twins found a taker for Vasquez and the majority of his salary, they should probably go that route.  I do agree that his replacement will most likely be a step back; but what is the front office to do, if this is their financial reality?

[Jim wyllie]

Trade jax, paddock, Vasquez, and trade high on castro

[dxpavelka]

Probably not too soon to move Duran.  Cuz the day he hits free agency, he gone.

 

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

Probably not too soon to move Duran.  Cuz the day he hits free agency, he gone.

 

Jhoan Duran is a really good relief pitcher and should have real value to a number of teams. The Twins need good relievers but they may have a greater need for a position player. Perhaps the Twins can work out a trade, using Duran, that benefits their team and fulfills a need for another roster. We can only guess whether another team sees Duran as a potential key cog for their team. One quick guess, which may work - Duran and Kirilloff for Jordan Lawler. Hard to know if Lawler is off limits.

[cmoss84]

Jax and Duran are still under control for 3 more years. Have to keep those guys unless someone gives a hell of an offer. 

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, cmoss84 said:

Jax and Duran are still under control for 3 more years. Have to keep those guys unless someone gives a hell of an offer. 

Duran should be on some other team's mind. What is his value? A fair deal helps both teams. 

[cmoss84]

19 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Duran should be on some other team's mind. What is his value? A fair deal helps both teams. 

I keep going back to larger deals with Buck/CC included (yes, I know about the no trade clauses), but here are some thoughts:

-Buxton/Duran for Corbin Carroll

-Correa, Duran, and Miranda for Arenado and Winn

-Buxton and Duran for Jarren Duran

-Duran for Tristan Casas

-Duran, Festa, and Zebby for Justin Steele

-Larnach and Duran for Nolan Jones 

-Buxton and Duran for Mackenzie Gore 

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, cmoss84 said:

I keep going back to larger deals with Buck/CC included (yes, I know about the no trade clauses), but here are some thoughts:

-Buxton/Duran for Corbin Carroll

-Correa, Duran, and Miranda for Arenado and Winn

-Buxton and Duran for Jarren Duran

-Duran for Tristan Casas

-Duran, Festa, and Zebby for Justin Steele

-Larnach and Duran for Nolan Jones 

-Buxton and Duran for Mackenzie Gore 

These are interesting ideas. I like the general idea for some change.

In general teams are very reluctant to trade starting pitchers unless they believe there is sufficient depth to cover the loss.

The problem with trading Correa or Buxton is that only a large market team would work and the return would be quite disappointing.

Boston has their eyes on starting pitching in any deal.

The bottom line is that we don't exactly know how the league values the Twins players and that includes Falvey. So all ideas are worth an examination. I would expect Falvey to be very active because his rope is really short. Soon enough we shall find out. I hope we are not disappointed like we were last offseason.

[gman]

Trading Jax and/or Duran means we gave up on 2025 already. Staying at $130mil payroll, means the same thing. Unfortunately announcing to everyone that you are not increasing payroll gives the competition a leg up.

[tony&rodney]

6 hours ago, gman said:

Trading Jax and/or Duran means we gave up on 2025 already. Staying at $130mil payroll, means the same thing. Unfortunately announcing to everyone that you are not increasing payroll gives the competition a leg up.

Perhaps a few strategic transactions can infuse the team with needed talent in certain positions, even if the payroll is dropped to $120 million.

[mrcharlie]

On 10/22/2024 at 10:34 AM, Jeff K said:

I think IF the Twins found a taker for Vasquez and the majority of his salary, they should probably go that route.  I do agree that his replacement will most likely be a step back; but what is the front office to do, if this is their financial reality?

Let's be creative and address one big concern.  Between Vasquez and Jeffers who will bring in the best personnel?  Jeffers.  Trade him for a solid bullpen arm, and pick up a defensive specialist to team with Vasquez.  Those specialist are not hard to find and hope the new hitting coach can tap into more production from Vasquez.

[mrcharlie]

The last point, "fraught with risk", is very true; but should not influence the decisions.  Sport is full of risk and unless you go about it with absolute confidence you are done.   FO needs to evaluate who on the roster is most replaceable from within and most desired by other organizations; and find workable trades.  I would build a case for Lewis on that model.  There are young and coachable players for inf spots and Lewis might enjoy Pittsburgh (😂) who could use a new 2nd baseman!

[Jeff K]

22 hours ago, mrcharlie said:

Let's be creative and address one big concern.  Between Vasquez and Jeffers who will bring in the best personnel?  Jeffers.  Trade him for a solid bullpen arm, and pick up a defensive specialist to team with Vasquez.  Those specialist are not hard to find and hope the new hitting coach can tap into more production from Vasquez.

I agree that Jeffers brings more in a trade.  I am saying that if the goal is to make salary room...or cuts, then moving Vasquez is the play.