What Twins Can Learn From Each Division Winner, Pt. 1: Catcher Defense

[Matt Braun]

Join me for an examination and discussion of the most successful teams in baseball, and how the Twins can learn from them.

Image courtesy of © John Hefti-Imagn Images

Though much happens behind the scenes in the modern game, baseball is fundamentally transparent. We see every move, read about every trade, and dissect how each prosperous team accomplished its wins. Beyond the hidden nuances of coaching and each team's R&D department, everything is laid bare for the league to see. When the Dodgers and Yankees start throwing a specific type of slider, teams quickly copy them and usher in the “sweeper” into our shared baseball lexicon. So it goes.

Minnesota, then, would be prudent to observe its peers and attempt to glean lessons from them. In this series, I’ll closely examine MLB’s division winners and attempt to reverse-engineer them, to find paths the Twins may take back to the top of the standings. 

Before we get into the meat of this piece, it’s important to note that none of these lessons are gospel, There’s more than one way to skin a cat (or build a successful baseball team), so my suggestions are just that. The Twins could follow the blueprint other teams created, but it’s not a necessity. That said, let’s look at how each division winner in the AL reached their success. 

Guardians and Yankees: This Catcher Defense Stuff Seems Important
If you go to Baseball Prospectus and sort by catcher framing, you’ll see that four of the top seven framers in baseball belong to the ball clubs based in Cleveland and The Bronx. That’s no coincidence. Both franchises have been notorious for years for employing backstops like Roberto Pérez and José Trevino, who were tepid hitters even for a catcher but who could frame Mr. Rogers for murder.

The logic for utilizing these players is simple: an excellent framer affects every pitch their pitching staff throws, while—as a hitter—they only account for one-ninth of their team’s hitting in any given game. That’s a worthy tradeoff, even if you have to suffer through some truly putrid Austin Hedges at-bats.

The Twins do employ a worthy framer in Christian Vázquez. He currently sits as the 9th-best framer in MLB, saving nine runs this year with his receiving. Ryan Jeffers is a different story. He has cost the team 3.8 runs with his glovework, good for 86th place among all catchers. The tradeoff with him has always been that his bat buoys his profile, but is a 104 wRC+ enough to make up for poor defense?

If the team is looking to scrape over every detail for every morsel of wins—which it seems they must do, with a dearth of financial support coming from ownership—doubling down on defense and moving Jeffers to replace him with a framer as good as Vázquez might be the play. Yasmani Grandal, whom the Twins were interested in a few years back, is set to be a free agent this offseason and shouldn’t cost more than a few million dollars. It would be an old and lethargic catching tandem, but they would also be one of the most stout defensive groups in the league. 

If not Grandal, Alejandro Kirk is also an above-average framer, and he could be had, given Toronto’s likely retreat into a rebuild. Reese McGuire and Elias Díaz are other cheap defense-first options, but they do not represent a meaningful upgrade over the shape of Jeffers’s production. 

Dodgers, Astros, and Phillies: Framing is for Suckers
These are the three teams you could point to in an argument against catching defense. Will Smith grades out as the second-worst framer in the league, with J.T. Realmuto in sixth-worst and Yainer Diaz 14th from the bottom, in the spot next to Jeffers. They’ve received more production through the power of their bats. All three players claim a wRC+ above 100. Smith and Diaz are squarely into “good for any position” territory, with marks north of 110.

They would be the case studies supporting the argument to keep Jeffers around. He flashed tremendous offensive prowess with a 137 wRC+ in 2023, which helped fuel Minnesota’s ninth-ranked catching fWAR that season.

That year appears to be a fluke, though, as Jeffers fell back to an average realm in 2024, which—in combination with his below-average glove—makes him a perfectly cromulent backstop, rather than a genuinely helpful one. Maybe it’s fitting that the team is now 15th in catcher fWAR this year. Banking on his bat being as powerful as those of Smith or Diaz would be foolish.

Minnesota’s mandate is clear: they need to lean into an extreme in order to find better play from those who don the tools of ignorance. Someone in the mold of Vázquez would be perfect, but those players don’t grow on trees—and given the dearth of catching talent in the farm system, they may have to dig into the bargain bin to find such a player. But they exist. And they can be acquired. The Twins front office just needs to be clever.

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[Mike Sixel]

Zero interest in two catchers that can't hit at all. Zero. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

In this scenario, they are trading Jeffers. What would his value be? I don’t see him being traded, just asking what you would do with him? And what value you would want back?

I did want Yasmani Grandal years ago. I wonder how much he has left in the tank. Let’s say the hypothetical happens and Jeffers is traded and you have a Grandal/Vazquez platoon; would that be an improvement?

[2wins87]

Don't get the premise here at all.

Why does a catcher need to be at one extreme or another?

Why is Jeffers somehow the problem rather than Vazquez, when he's produced better fWAR over each of the last 2 years?

If the argument is that catcher defense is not well calculated, fine, but you can't just assume that the catchers with good defense according to metrics would only get better. In fact, if there is a missing component correlated with team wins it would have to be uncorrelated with the metrics already measured, because otherwise the current metrics would just have a greater weight in WAR.

Jeffers' defense isn't great but I think it's fine. He had his worst framing year in the majors last year. It could be partly a statistical fluke that will bounce back, but framing also seems to be one of the more coachable catching skills, so I think they can try to refocus on framing next year and if everything else holds up he's easily still starting caliber for a catcher.

Vasquez's bat is easily more of a liability than Jeffers' defense. In fact, while not a great metric, Jeffers has had a better catcher's ERA than Vazquez each of the last 2 years handling the same pitching staff. Framing in particular would already be baked in to ERA, so hard to argue his defense/handling the pitching staff has really been a liabilty.

[Reptevia]

As soon as they go to the electronic strike zone, framing is dead. Seems like a bad time to put all your eggs in that basket. Also, zero interest in two catchers that can’t hit. 

[Doctor Gast]

Quote

 But they exist. And they can be acquired. The Twins front office just needs to be clever.

Good luck with that. Unless he is dropped in their lap & they are sold. It won't happen.

[HerbieFan]

Of the problems that need solving, catcher just doesn't seem near the top of the list for me.  The electronic zone is coming IMHO...framing becomes obsolete.  

[USAFChief]

For one thing, I don't think "framing" equals "catcher defense."

[umterp23]

Pitch framing as key measurable for a catcher is quite laughable with plate umpires and inconsistencies are so varied. The strike zone box is stagnant, doesn't adjust for player heights for one, so low strikes may be somewhat consistent, but high strikes can be all over the map.  Plate umpires from game to game can be tight strike zone, loose zone, pitcher wildness, etc.

Focus on caught stealing, errors, passed balls, wild pitches, etc.

Then the complaints come from throwing guys out, but that can also tied to slow to home by pitchers, what pitch did they run on, game situation, were they going to throw to 2nd with guy on 3rd, etc.

Passed balls/wild pitches/errors are a scoring opinion by a stat guy in the booth. What we thought back in the day for us old guys isn't quite the same today with stats being called today.  

Human judgement of defense is subjective, hitting a baseball is pretty easy to figure out.  Way too many statistical elements being introduced into the game is tiresome.

Give us 2 guys behind the plat that can hold their own both offensively and defensively, which I believe we have them and move on to more pressing needs 

[Doctor Gast]

Jeffers is an excellent backup catcher, his bat & especially his glove are much better when he is played less & efficiency goes down more when he's used more. His trade value was high last season & he's not a extension candidate because he's not a primary catcher & he'll be expensive as a Boras client, so I advocated to trade him. I would have kept Rortvedt than signing Vazquez but since we did I'd have picked up a potential elite MLB-ready catching prospect for Vazquez to mentor. Even though Jeffers is FO's choice, he still should be traded.

[Mike Sixel]

16 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Jeffers is an excellent backup catcher, his bat & especially his glove are much better when he is played less & efficiency goes down more when he's used more. His trade value was high last season & he's not a extension candidate because he's not a primary catcher & he'll be expensive as a Boras client, so I advocated to trade him. I would have kept Rortvedt than signing Vazquez but since we did I'd have picked up a potential elite MLB-ready catching prospect for Vazquez to mentor. Even though Jeffers is FO's choice, he still should be traded.

Your dislike for Jeffers is consistent at least. He's a legit starting catcher, and other teams would have him start 100 games there, IMO.

[Doctor Gast]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Your dislike for Jeffers is consistent at least. He's a legit starting catcher, and other teams would have him start 100 games there, IMO.

Oh, Mike, I've never said I dislike Jeffers at any time. I've always said I've liked him, Through unbiased observation I don't see him having the stuff to be a primary catcher, no matter how much Falvey wants him to be. He's played much less than 100 games at catcher this season & he still can't maintain any productivity. Any productivity wanes as the season progresses. My opinion is consistent & IMO he hasn't proven me wrong.

[Craig Arko]

Pretty sure 2025 will be the same as 23 and 24; Jeffers and Vazquez alternating. 

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, Craig Arko said:

Pretty sure 2025 will be the same as 23 and 24; Jeffers and Vazquez alternating. 

The only way that doesn't happen is if they deal Lopez to Boston for Teel and unload one of the two Twins.....IMO.