Louie Varland, the Twins' Next Griffin Jax, Is Ready to Shine in the Bullpen

[Matthew Taylor]

Louie Varland's days as a starting pitcher should be over. The Minnesota Twins have invested significant time and patience in developing him as a reliable starter, but the results tell a different story.

Image courtesy of © Jordan Johnson-Imagn Images

Across two seasons and 114 1/3 innings as a starter in the big leagues, Louie Varland has posted a 5.27 ERA. While he's shown flashes of brilliance, those moments are too often overshadowed by an inevitable blow-up inning where things spiral out of control. When Varland unravels, it’s usually via the long ball—he's allowed 27 home runs as a starter, or nearly two per nine innings. To put that into perspective, the league leader in HR/9 this season was Adam Gomber, at 1.69. Gomber works out of Coors Field, the most homer-friendly ballpark in the league.

At this point, it's tough to justify continuing down the same path with Varland in the rotation when the results haven’t been there. His true potential seems to lie elsewhere.

That potential first became clear when the Twins shifted Varland into a relief role late last season. Freed from the need to pace himself over multiple innings, Varland was able to dial up his velocity to 98 MPH or more and overpower hitters with pure heat. Over 12 innings as a reliever, he allowed just six hits and two earned runs, and he struck out 17 batters. His performance in the playoffs—two scoreless appearances in high-leverage spots—was nothing short of heroic.

Despite Varland’s struggles in the rotation, the Twins kept trying him as a starter this year, even as their bullpen cried out for help. But as the season progressed and rotation depth became less of a priority, the team made the call to move him back to the bullpen. Although there were a couple of rough outings in long relief (14 earned runs against Tampa Bay and Cincinnati, yikes), Varland quickly found his groove as a late-inning reliever. In three consecutive shutout appearances, including a standout performance in Boston last Friday, he’s delivered hitless, high-leverage innings.

This isn't an unfamiliar situation for the Twins. Griffin Jax traced a similar trajectory: he struggled mightily as a starter before the team transitioned him into a bullpen role, where he became one of the most reliable relievers in baseball. In 14 games as a starting pitcher for the Twins, Jax looked completely overmatched, with a 6.10 ERA. Similar to Varland, Jax struggled immensely with the long ball, surrendering 18 home runs in just 69 1/3 innings. After a move to the pen and some intense offseason work on his velocity and pitch mix, he's a whole new hurler.

Varland could follow the same path, giving the Twins a formidable bullpen trio with Duran, Jax, and Varland heading into the postseason (hey, we can dream) and beyond.

At this point, the writing is on the wall: Varland is a reliever. He’s proven that his stuff plays up when he’s allowed to cut loose in short bursts. The Twins can’t afford to keep forcing him into a role where he’s prone to failure.

While starting pitchers will always carry more inherent value due to their workload, a dominant reliever is far more valuable to the Twins right now than a struggling starter. The transition has worked before with Griffin Jax, and Varland has the potential to be even better. It’s time to embrace his future in the bullpen.

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What do you think? Should the Twins commit to Varland as a reliever full-time, or is it worth continuing to try him as a starter next season? Let’s hear your thoughts!

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[Karbo]

They are about a year late making that decision.

[NYCTK]

Will need him in the bullpen after the twins trade away Duran due to his quadrupling salary next season. 

[Linus]

Definitely should be in the bullpen next year. No way he is the next Jax. Jax has three really good pitches and a fourth good one. Louie has a decent fastball and an ok cutter. 

[DJL44]

I believe they call this "counting your chickens before they have hatched". Jax is an elite reliever.

[Cory Engelhardt]

27 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Will need him in the bullpen after the twins trade away Duran due to his quadrupling salary next season. 

Duran made 747k in 2024. 2025 will be his first year of arbitration. You REALLY think he is going to make approximately 3 million in his first year of arbitration? REALLY?!?!?!

[NYCTK]

30 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Duran made 747k in 2024. 2025 will be his first year of arbitration. You REALLY think he is going to make approximately 3 million in his first year of arbitration? REALLY?!?!?!

Yes, I'm very confident he'll get more than $3 million actually. 

Devin Williams is a fairly decent comp and he made $3.3 in the 22-23 offseason. A good agent would actually push for more, seeing as Duran has been pretty vital in his career, finishing 96 games for the Twins compared to the (significantly better) Williams 29 at that point. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

13 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Yes, I'm very confident he'll get more than $3 million actually. 

Devin Williams is a fairly decent comp and he made $3.3 in the 22-23 offseason. A good agent would actually push for more, seeing as Duran has been pretty vital in his career, finishing 96 games for the Twins compared to the (significantly better) Williams 29 at that point. 

Williams had come off of seasons of 2.5 and 2.7 WAR prior to arbitration. Duran has had back to back seasons of 1.1 and 1.1. I don't know that he will get to that level.

But you are right, it's not like he will just double salary. 

I still don't think that is the way they will move payroll this offseason.

[bean5302]

Unlike Jax's slider, which has always been amazing, Varland doesn't have any plus pitches. He has a chance to be solid out of the bullpen, but I don't see him ever being elite. 

[bean5302]

Duran has been the Twins' primary closer so he has a ton of saves, and saves matter a lot in arbitration. He's going to be around $3MM because of his poor performance this year. If Duran had another year like 2022 and recorded 30+ saves, he'd be in for $5MM+ IMHO.

Jax is probably going to be $4MMish as well.

[NYCTK]

9 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Williams had come off of seasons of 2.5 and 2.7 WAR prior to arbitration. Duran has had back to back seasons of 1.1 and 1.1. I don't know that he will get to that level.

But you are right, it's not like he will just double salary. 

I still don't think that is the way they will move payroll this offseason.

You're mistaken on the timeline. If you want to look at bWAR, Williams had been worth 5.0 and Duran has been worth 4.7. Like I said, they're pretty decent comps. Hard to find 1 to 1, but I can guarantee you that both the Twins and Duran's agent are thinking this as well. $3.3, two years later, with inflation I wouldn't be surprised to see his agent ask for $4m. I think ultimately they'll come in around 3.5M. 

We'll see! 

[jmlease1]

I think the transition of Varland to the bullpen will be a good one. He'll be able to max his velocity and his more limited arsenal plays better in the bullpen. I understand why the Twins waited so long this season; when you're relying on so many untested young starters (SWR, Festa, Matthews are all in that boat) it's hard to move one out of the pool when one of those guys might implode so badly that they simply can't be used or an injury forces them on the IL for a week or more. 

I suspect that if Ryan hadn't gotten hurt we would have seen Varland in the bullpen sooner. Too bad.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, NYCTK said:

Yes, I'm very confident he'll get more than $3 million actually. 

Devin Williams is a fairly decent comp and he made $3.3 in the 22-23 offseason. A good agent would actually push for more, seeing as Duran has been pretty vital in his career, finishing 96 games for the Twins compared to the (significantly better) Williams 29 at that point. 

Williams was the best set-up guy in baseball for most of 3 previous years as well. ……..Duran at $3M isn’t going anywhere in any case. IMO, Duran, after a down year, may get to $2.1M based on his career as a whole…….that’s 3X his current base…..seems closer to real after this year of OK to good, not great. In ‘24 he’s 6-8 with a -.1 WAR and a 3.83 ERA.

[NYCTK]

9 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Williams was the best set-up guy in baseball for most of 3 previous years as well. ……..Duran at $3M isn’t going anywhere in any case. IMO, Duran, after a down year, may get to $2.1M based on his career as a whole…….that’s 3X his current base…..seems closer to real after this year of OK to good, not great. In ‘24 he’s 6-8 with a -.1 WAR and a 3.83 ERA.

Maybe! We'll see. As is, I have the Twins payroll at about $133 million next season with arbitration estimates and guessing at non tenders. This is already a slight increase on this season without addressing any of the team's holes. And with attendance down and a laughable collapse, I don't think anyone expects payroll to increase, at least not significantly. 

We're going to see some unexpected moves, and I'm going to put a call on the Twins moving their closer. And at $3.5 mil, I don't think that's necessarily a bad baseball move. 

[KirbyDome89]

3 scoreless innings after imploding over the previous 5 innings out of the bullpen and he's a high leverage guy. Jfc....

Way too much of this fan base is delusional when it comes to Varland.

[Cory Engelhardt]

59 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Maybe! We'll see. As is, I have the Twins payroll at about $133 million next season with arbitration estimates and guessing at non tenders. This is already a slight increase on this season without addressing any of the team's holes. And with attendance down and a laughable collapse, I don't think anyone expects payroll to increase, at least not significantly. 

We're going to see some unexpected moves, and I'm going to put a call on the Twins moving their closer. And at $3.5 mil, I don't think that's necessarily a bad baseball move. 

I'd love to see your payroll table. Mostly because I'm trying to figure out potential idea/blueprint plans for this offseason, and I do expect changes to come. I just can't wrap my head around what those are at the moment. 

I don't think Falvey will leave, and I'd imagine Rocco stays. Beyond that, I COULD see a new GM (even if it is an internal promotion) and I could see coaching staff changes.

Also with that, I very much could see changes to the roster as a whole. SO MANY players are playing right now like they are injured (maybe they are?) but I could see trading some of the roster just to give other guys an opportunity and have a different breakdown.

This offseason will be interesting to say the very least.

[roger]

I certainly hope so.  Hopefully, they will prepare him in spring training to go anywhere from 1-3 innings with a day or two rest between outings.  Would be very valuable to have a guy who can come in with and out or two in the fourth inning, get you out of the jam and pitch another inning or two.  Hopefully, Varland realizes this is a good spot for him and doesn't pout about not being a starter.

Would also give the Twins another solid later inning guy to go with Jax, Duran, hopefully a healthy Stewart, and Alcala hopefully for a full year.  The biggest need I see for 2025 is to go out and find a solid lefty, either via free agency or trade.  Add Cole Sands and they would have seven solid arms (Jax, Duran, Stewart, Alcala, Varland, Sands, and Leftie X)....when healthy.

[NYCTK]

52 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I'd love to see your payroll table. Mostly because I'm trying to figure out potential idea/blueprint plans for this offseason, and I do expect changes to come. I just can't wrap my head around what those are at the moment. 

I don't think Falvey will leave, and I'd imagine Rocco stays. Beyond that, I COULD see a new GM (even if it is an internal promotion) and I could see coaching staff changes.

Also with that, I very much could see changes to the roster as a whole. SO MANY players are playing right now like they are injured (maybe they are?) but I could see trading some of the roster just to give other guys an opportunity and have a different breakdown.

This offseason will be interesting to say the very least.

Pablo López	$21,750,000
Joe Ryan	$3,500,000
Bailey Ober	$3,500,000
Simeon Woods Richardson	$790,000
Chris Paddack	$7,500,000
Jhoan Duran	$3,500,000
Griffin Jax	$2,500,000
Brock Stewart	$2,000,000
Jorge Alcala	$1,500,000
Justin Topa	$2,000,000
Cole Sands	$790,000
Josh Winder	$790,000
Louie Varland	$790,000
Ryan Jeffers	$5,000,000
Christian Vazquez	$10,000,000
Edouard Julien	$790,000
Carlos Correa	$37,333,333
Royce Lewis	$3,000,000
Brooks Lee	$790,000
Trevor Larnach	$2,000,000
Byron Buxton	$15,142,857
Matt Wallner	$790,000
Keirsey	$790,000
Austin Martin	$790,000
Willi Castro	$5,000,000
José Miranda	$790,000

[NYCTK]

53 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

This offseason will be interesting to say the very least.

It really will be. I don't like the position this organization is in, from a front office standpoint. Mediocre team with huge needs and massive restraints.

And very few of the farm system are likely to actually be ready to improve the team within 2 seasons. Emmanuel Rodriguez and...

[Cory Engelhardt]

10 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

It really will be. I don't like the position this organization is in, from a front office standpoint. Mediocre team with huge needs and massive restraints.

And very few of the farm system are likely to actually be ready to improve the team within 2 seasons. Emmanuel Rodriguez and...

I very much, barring health, can see Walker Jenkins up next year. 

I don't love that we could potentially (again) have an all left handed hitting outfield, with Rodriguez coming up first. Maybe Keaschall is an option, or an outside target?

I can't put Paddack immediately in the rotation. Curious what the plan is with him.

It FEELS like so many guys are playing really hurt right now. Pre-August there weren't massive holes. Now because the bats have been silenced, it FEELS like more massive holes when it could be that a lot of guys just have to get healthy. I still expect changes though.

[NYCTK]

3 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I very much, barring health, can see Walker Jenkins up next year. 

I don't love that we could potentially (again) have an all left handed hitting outfield, with Rodriguez coming up first. Maybe Keaschall is an option, or an outside target?

I can't put Paddack immediately in the rotation. Curious what the plan is with him.

It FEELS like so many guys are playing really hurt right now. Pre-August there weren't massive holes. Now because the bats have been silenced, it FEELS like more massive holes when it could be that a lot of guys just have to get healthy. I still expect changes though.

I could very much see a Desclafani type trade with Paddack. Where we send our middle tier payroll burden for some other teams albatross in an effort to save 4 million dollars. 

Woo hoo! 

[Cory Engelhardt]

Yeah that makes an awful lot of sense to me. 

[Trov]

I think he has shown he needs to be transitioned to bullpen full time next year.  He is so much better in that roll and he has been as a starter. We have too many guys in the wings next year that can fill his roll as end of rotation starter. 

[AKTwinsFan]

With the Twins need of a starter I think Jax will be in the starter roll next year and Varland in the roll Jax has been in this year. Jax sub 3 era next year!