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Across two seasons and 114 1/3 innings as a starter in the big leagues, Louie Varland has posted a 5.27 ERA. While he's shown flashes of brilliance, those moments are too often overshadowed by an inevitable blow-up inning where things spiral out of control. When Varland unravels, it’s usually via the long ball—he's allowed 27 home runs as a starter, or nearly two per nine innings. To put that into perspective, the league leader in HR/9 this season was Adam Gomber, at 1.69. Gomber works out of Coors Field, the most homer-friendly ballpark in the league.
At this point, it's tough to justify continuing down the same path with Varland in the rotation when the results haven’t been there. His true potential seems to lie elsewhere.
That potential first became clear when the Twins shifted Varland into a relief role late last season. Freed from the need to pace himself over multiple innings, Varland was able to dial up his velocity to 98 MPH or more and overpower hitters with pure heat. Over 12 innings as a reliever, he allowed just six hits and two earned runs, and he struck out 17 batters. His performance in the playoffs—two scoreless appearances in high-leverage spots—was nothing short of heroic.
Despite Varland’s struggles in the rotation, the Twins kept trying him as a starter this year, even as their bullpen cried out for help. But as the season progressed and rotation depth became less of a priority, the team made the call to move him back to the bullpen. Although there were a couple of rough outings in long relief (14 earned runs against Tampa Bay and Cincinnati, yikes), Varland quickly found his groove as a late-inning reliever. In three consecutive shutout appearances, including a standout performance in Boston last Friday, he’s delivered hitless, high-leverage innings.
This isn't an unfamiliar situation for the Twins. Griffin Jax traced a similar trajectory: he struggled mightily as a starter before the team transitioned him into a bullpen role, where he became one of the most reliable relievers in baseball. In 14 games as a starting pitcher for the Twins, Jax looked completely overmatched, with a 6.10 ERA. Similar to Varland, Jax struggled immensely with the long ball, surrendering 18 home runs in just 69 1/3 innings. After a move to the pen and some intense offseason work on his velocity and pitch mix, he's a whole new hurler.
Varland could follow the same path, giving the Twins a formidable bullpen trio with Duran, Jax, and Varland heading into the postseason (hey, we can dream) and beyond.
At this point, the writing is on the wall: Varland is a reliever. He’s proven that his stuff plays up when he’s allowed to cut loose in short bursts. The Twins can’t afford to keep forcing him into a role where he’s prone to failure.
While starting pitchers will always carry more inherent value due to their workload, a dominant reliever is far more valuable to the Twins right now than a struggling starter. The transition has worked before with Griffin Jax, and Varland has the potential to be even better. It’s time to embrace his future in the bullpen.
What do you think? Should the Twins commit to Varland as a reliever full-time, or is it worth continuing to try him as a starter next season? Let’s hear your thoughts!
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