This Twins Team is Better Than You Think, Part Two: The Underlying Data

[Eric Blonigen]

The Twins should be winning the division, and it’s not close. Whether looking at new statistical model, or more traditional data, it’s clear that these Twins are a very good team.

Image courtesy of © Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

In the previous entry, we explored the MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter and concluded that the Twins, removing "luck" from the equation, deserve to be winning the AL Central. While fun and instructive, the MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter is just one model. Now, let’s look at some actual data that backs this luck factor up. 

One-Run and Extra-Inning Games
The situational nature of the Guardians' success can be easily seen by comparing the Twins' and Guardians records in extra-innings games and 1-run games. The Guardians are 23-15 in 1-run games, and 8-3 in extra-innings games. The Twins are 19-15 in 1-run games, and 2-3 in extras. Luck favors the Guardians.

The Pitching
Let’s start by looking at actual game results. The Twins pitching staff is exactly average, with a 4.10 ERA (3.86 FIP). The Guardians are better than average, with a 3.79 ERA (4.14 FIP). Digging into underlying metrics suggests that the FIP numbers are pretty close to what we should expect.

The Twins have allowed the fifth-lowest average exit velocity across baseball; the Guardians have the second-highest. The Twins allow the second-lowest walk rate compared to the Guardians being in the bottom third. The Twins pitchers strike more guys out. Twins pitchers allow the 5th-lowest OPS, compared to the Guardians, who are league average. 

Despite all of these things, the Twins allow more runs per game than the Guardians. A lot of this comes down to situational fortune, as the Guardians' pitching staff has allowed the fourth-lowest BABIP in baseball. Luck.

Looking at WPA, on the pitching side, the Guardians have accumulated 8.7 on the season, compared to just 3.1 for the Twins, indicating the Guardians have less of a leaky bullpen in high-leverage situations. Overall, the Twins pitching staff should have better results than Cleveland.

Hitting
On the hitting side, it’s more of the same. The Guardians are below-average in batting average, OBP, and slugging.

The Guardians don’t hit well overall. However, their left on base rate is fourth-best in baseball, leading to Cleveland scoring an above-average number of runs per game due to hit clustering and luck. 

The Twins have had 1,480 baserunners, notably more than the 1,374 for the Guardians. Out of that additional 106 baserunners, the Twins have stranded 87 more runners than the Guardians, so they're not getting as much out of their greater on-base skills as they could be.

The Twins are well above average in each of the triple-slash categories, but are only scoring 0.3 runs a game more than Cleveland. Looking at wOBA, the Twins are sixth in baseball, at .326, compared to the Guardians' below-average .304. Bad luck for the Twins.

Conclusions
So, here we are. The underlying pitching and hitting metrics both greatly favor the Twins, and since most of those metrics are predictive, there are two important things of which to be mindful. 

First, this Twins team is very good, and deserves to be leading the division based on team play. Their pitching is good, their hitting is good, and they outmatch the Guardians in most facets. Second, the Twins have a chance to catch the Guardians and win the division. As the calendar flips to September, anything is possible, but with a little luck, the Twins can work their way into an AL Central title.

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What do you think about the role luck has played this season? Comment below!

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[insagt1]

Hard to base legitimate analysis on luck...which honestly and really doesn't exist. Some teams perform better than others and over 162 games 'luck' isn't a factor. Sometimes the other guy just outplays our guy because he is skilled and is in the majors for a reason. A ball crushed by a good hitter when Cedric Mullins or Byron Buxton is in CF is more likely to result in an out. Hitters know that. No luck involved. Winning 1 run games is a neat skill that good teams draw on. Cleveland has led the Twins all year because they have outplayed them...on the field...not on paper or in some metric notebook. I can't seriously think that they merely have been luckier. Twins blew yesterday's game on merit. ..failing to make the big plays when needed. The other team did so they won.

I submit it was an interesting take but I'm not buying the 'luck' factor at all. It's an easy excuse but nothing more.

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[tony&rodney]

40 minutes ago, insagt1 said:

Hard to base legitimate analysis on luck...which honestly and really doesn't exist. Some teams perform better than others and over 162 games 'luck' isn't a factor. Sometimes the other guy just outplays our guy because he is skilled and is in the majors for a reason. A ball crushed by a good hitter when Cedric Mullins or Byron Buxton is in CF is more likely to result in an out. Hitters know that. No luck involved. Winning 1 run games is a neat skill that good teams draw on. Cleveland has led the Twins all year because they have outplayed them...on the field...not on paper or in some metric notebook. I can't seriously think that they merely have been luckier. Twins blew yesterday's game on merit. ..failing to make the big plays when needed. The other team did so they won.

I submit it was an interesting take but I'm not buying the 'luck' factor at all. It's an easy excuse but nothing more.

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Completely agree.

It is really interesting though how many angles one can take/find to quantify events. Analytics (Maths) have been around forever and the publishing of troves of data has bloomed bountifully in this millenium (sp?). This has drawn a new set of people into sports and been a boon for the games in many instances. Who envisioned the quantification of good luck beyond our shrines, charms, and quixotic habits? Watch out for black cats.

[Craig Arko]

Based on run differential, which you don’t look at, as of today the Twins are one expected game behind Cleveland and three behind KC.

The Royals should be leading this division. 

[LambchoP]

The Twins just suck at hitting with RISP. Especially hitting with bases loaded. Whenever we get 2 guys on, or even bases loaded with one out or less, I just cringe and wait for the strikeouts and double plays. It really is comical at this point.

[Alex Wilde]

2 minutes ago, Craig Arko said:

Based on run differential, which you don’t look at, as of today the Twins are one expected game behind Cleveland and three behind KC.

The Royals should be leading this division. 

Well sure, but that’s not an analytically driven argument. With that same sentiment, the 2023 Ravens and 2022 Vikings both went 13-4. However, the Vikings had a -3 point differential and the Ravens had a +203 point differential.

[Craig Arko]

21 minutes ago, Alex Wilde said:

Well sure, but that’s not an analytically driven argument. With that same sentiment, the 2023 Ravens and 2022 Vikings both went 13-4. However, the Vikings had a -3 point differential and the Ravens had a +203 point differential.

But positing luck, without providing an underlying error analysis of the data, is?

[Ricky Vaughn]

The only thing that counts is results.

[TwinsDr2021]

This is what I find interesting in all this, The Twins have played 132 games, and we know exactly that they have done (72-58) and we know how they did it, All the analytics can tell us is how things should be looking going forward, not how they will be. Does the backwards analytics take into account the week or two where the Phillies, Tigers, and white sox out fielders seem to misread, misplay every important hit? Or 0 -28 pinch hitting, substitutions or the wrong time to hang a pitch?

 

[Shaitan]

What else do I think? Please tell me.

[Riverbrian]

I spend a lot of column inches on this website talking about my concerns. 

That's what these websites are for if you want to talk baseball with others. 

I am concerned about things like: 

1. The extreme platooning

1A. The need to roster short siders in order to make the platoon work

1B. The denying of exposure to left handed pitchers for our developing left handed hitters.  

1C. Injuries will bring 1A and 1B to light and it just might happen at the worst possible time IE Playoffs.  

However... No matter how much time I spend on my expressing my concerns... I want to be clear. The Twins have had a fantastic year and my concerns haven't killed this team. This team is doing very very well while not being perfect.  

I just want to state this just in case the Twinsdaily faithful have read my constructive criticisms and confused them into thinking that I believe the roof is on fire. 

The roof is not on fire... There are very few teams in baseball that I would trade situations with if given the choice.  

Go Twins... Yes... We can win it all in 2024. 

[mrcharlie]

5 hours ago, insagt1 said:

Hard to base legitimate analysis on luck...which honestly and really doesn't exist. Some teams perform better than others and over 162 games 'luck' isn't a factor. Sometimes the other guy just outplays our guy because he is skilled and is in the majors for a reason. A ball crushed by a good hitter when Cedric Mullins or Byron Buxton is in CF is more likely to result in an out. Hitters know that. No luck involved. Winning 1 run games is a neat skill that good teams draw on. Cleveland has led the Twins all year because they have outplayed them...on the field...not on paper or in some metric notebook. I can't seriously think that they merely have been luckier. Twins blew yesterday's game on merit. ..failing to make the big plays when needed. The other team did so they won.

I submit it was an interesting take but I'm not buying the 'luck' factor at all. It's an easy excuse but nothing more.

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"You gotta be good to be lucky!"  Not a Yogi proverb.  If you are in a position to take advantage of your good fortune then you gets positive results 

[mrcharlie]

Luck has something to do with success as far as the level of talent available.  Guardians out do Twins in pitching department, and we all know good pitching beats good hitting over time.  Offense is exciting for the casual fan but if you really appreciate the game you want solid pitching foremost.

[LA Vikes Fan]

The most important and interesting statistic up there is the record in one run and extra inning games. Cleveland is 23–15 in one run games, 8–3 in extra innings. The Twins are 19–15 in one run games, 2-3 in extra innings.

That isn't luck. That's the difference between having a very good bullpen and a middle-of-the-road bullpen. The difference in bullpens is why Cleveland leads the division and the Twins do not. Cleveland has a much better bullpen. 

[DocBauer]

Just to be clear, I have tremendous respect for Cleveland as an organization, and what they have done so far this year, even though I believe in my heart of hearts the Twins, overall, are the better club.

Not sure I ever bought the "you can  lose a division in April" until this season. Now, the year isn't over yet! But it's kinda crazy the Twins have bounced between the 1st and 2nd best record in MLB since that awful 7-13 start, or whatever the exact numbers were.

I do think there is a regional NEGATIVE bias where we sometimes lament bad losses, giving games away, etc, when we examine our favorite team. Despite the payroll cutback, despite a rash of injuries, despite some bad losses that leave a bad taste in our mouth, the Twins are about 90% to reach the playoffs and still have a legitimate chance to win the ALC. Best record SINCE the bad start, or record overall, they are amongst the top 10 best win teams in MLB last time I looked.

That's a reality, even if we want to lament woulda/coulda/shoulda scenarios.

I absolutely believe in the LUCK issue we've been debating here. But "luck" is just a word to loosely describe what Cleveland has done thus far. If you want, how about we talk about regression to the "mean" instead? Barring a bizarre anomaly, if you flip a coin 100 times, you might get a run of either side, but in the end, you're going to end up pretty close to 50%. Statistics aren't just made up. 

While casinos and betting websites don't hit 100%...and yes, they try to manipulate betting lines to a degree...they use very advanced statistics in order to win over 50% of the time. And they always win in the long run. 

If ONE player ALWAYS performs consistently above or below BABIP in MLB, it's a trend for that player based on how they play the game, whatever it is they do. But when a TEAM has a BABIP...for example...over a period of time, it's either a BABIP that is going to naturally regress toward the norm at some point, OR, they will simply ride an anomaly that isn't supposed to happen for that length of time.

Again, all due respect to Cleveland. And if you dislike the idea of "luck" one more time, just accept that there is a normal "mean" that real, logical statistics indicate "should be". BTW, "statistics" is not a 4 letter word. It's almost double in length first of all, LOL. But statistics have been all over baseball for decades! It's just grown and changed in measurement is all.

Cleveland has been regressing lately. It's up to the Twins to continue trending upward. The season is coming around the 3rd bend and just entering the 4th, with the finish line in view dead ahead. 

The Guardians and Royals play 7 more games against one another, IIRC. And the Twins face Cleveland for 4 more games I believe. And there's a lot of other baseball in between. It's a shame our team started so damn slow and put themselves behind the 8 ball after 4 weeks. And it's a damn shame we BLEW about 3 or 4 games in the last 10 days that could have us tied, or in 1st place NOW. But it's also a damn shame if we can't recognize that we have a really good team as is right now. 

September should be really fun!

[Craig Arko]

I will not be at all surprised if KC wins the division.