This Twins Team is Better Than You Think, Part Two: The Underlying Data

Hard to base legitimate analysis on luck...which honestly and really doesn't exist. Some teams perform better than others and over 162 games 'luck' isn't a factor. Sometimes the other guy just outplays our guy because he is skilled and is in the majors for a reason. A ball crushed by a good hitter when Cedric Mullins or Byron Buxton is in CF is more likely to result in an out. Hitters know that. No luck involved. Winning 1 run games is a neat skill that good teams draw on. Cleveland has led the Twins all year because they have outplayed them...on the field...not on paper or in some metric notebook. I can't seriously think that they merely have been luckier. Twins blew yesterday's game on merit. ..failing to make the big plays when needed. The other team did so they won.

I submit it was an interesting take but I'm not buying the 'luck' factor at all. It's an easy excuse but nothing more.

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40 minutes ago, insagt1 said:

Hard to base legitimate analysis on luck...which honestly and really doesn't exist. Some teams perform better than others and over 162 games 'luck' isn't a factor. Sometimes the other guy just outplays our guy because he is skilled and is in the majors for a reason. A ball crushed by a good hitter when Cedric Mullins or Byron Buxton is in CF is more likely to result in an out. Hitters know that. No luck involved. Winning 1 run games is a neat skill that good teams draw on. Cleveland has led the Twins all year because they have outplayed them...on the field...not on paper or in some metric notebook. I can't seriously think that they merely have been luckier. Twins blew yesterday's game on merit. ..failing to make the big plays when needed. The other team did so they won.

I submit it was an interesting take but I'm not buying the 'luck' factor at all. It's an easy excuse but nothing more.

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Completely agree.

It is really interesting though how many angles one can take/find to quantify events. Analytics (Maths) have been around forever and the publishing of troves of data has bloomed bountifully in this millenium (sp?). This has drawn a new set of people into sports and been a boon for the games in many instances. Who envisioned the quantification of good luck beyond our shrines, charms, and quixotic habits? Watch out for black cats.

The Twins just suck at hitting with RISP. Especially hitting with bases loaded. Whenever we get 2 guys on, or even bases loaded with one out or less, I just cringe and wait for the strikeouts and double plays. It really is comical at this point.

2 minutes ago, Craig Arko said:

Based on run differential, which you don’t look at, as of today the Twins are one expected game behind Cleveland and three behind KC.

The Royals should be leading this division. 

Well sure, but that’s not an analytically driven argument. With that same sentiment, the 2023 Ravens and 2022 Vikings both went 13-4. However, the Vikings had a -3 point differential and the Ravens had a +203 point differential.

The only thing that counts is results.

This is what I find interesting in all this, The Twins have played 132 games, and we know exactly that they have done (72-58) and we know how they did it, All the analytics can tell us is how things should be looking going forward, not how they will be. Does the backwards analytics take into account the week or two where the Phillies, Tigers, and white sox out fielders seem to misread, misplay every important hit? Or 0 -28 pinch hitting, substitutions or the wrong time to hang a pitch?

What else do I think? Please tell me.

5 hours ago, insagt1 said:

Hard to base legitimate analysis on luck...which honestly and really doesn't exist. Some teams perform better than others and over 162 games 'luck' isn't a factor. Sometimes the other guy just outplays our guy because he is skilled and is in the majors for a reason. A ball crushed by a good hitter when Cedric Mullins or Byron Buxton is in CF is more likely to result in an out. Hitters know that. No luck involved. Winning 1 run games is a neat skill that good teams draw on. Cleveland has led the Twins all year because they have outplayed them...on the field...not on paper or in some metric notebook. I can't seriously think that they merely have been luckier. Twins blew yesterday's game on merit. ..failing to make the big plays when needed. The other team did so they won.

I submit it was an interesting take but I'm not buying the 'luck' factor at all. It's an easy excuse but nothing more.

.

 

 

 

"You gotta be good to be lucky!"  Not a Yogi proverb.  If you are in a position to take advantage of your good fortune then you gets positive results 

Luck has something to do with success as far as the level of talent available.  Guardians out do Twins in pitching department, and we all know good pitching beats good hitting over time.  Offense is exciting for the casual fan but if you really appreciate the game you want solid pitching foremost.