Edouard Julien Returns. What Can We Expect?

[mnfireman]

Julien is a better defensive player than he was when he was first called up, but he is still not a good defensive player.

He doesn't have "soft" hands in that he stabs at a lot of ground balls, he "pats" (double-clutches) his glove on nearly every throw and if he has to hurry a throw, it generally short hops the defender or winds up off-target. 

Having said that, the guy standing to his right (Correa, though he is on the IL I'm sure he's with the team every day) should be his biggest source of defensive information/help, as well as early/extra fielding before games and on off-days. 

The more concerning point to me is his hitting. He still watches too many close pitches that are called strikes, even the JH kids I used to coach learned to foul those off if the umpire was calling them strikes.

[TwinsDr2021]

So is Miranda back today?

 

[mnfireman]

4 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

So is Miranda back today?

 

Game time is 6:40, I'm sure we won't hear anything until 3:00 or 4:00...

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Danchat said:

It's incredible to me that they tried as hard as they could to have Martin be a SS when it was entirely apparent he couldn't handle it. Didn't have the arm nor the fielding ability, but that didn't stop them. His only true defensive home might be 2B.

I still have seared into my memory the sight of Martin in the Arizona Fall League, bollixing up a short shovel pass (to Eddie Julien as it happened) that would have started an easy double play.  Julien did extremely well to come up with the catch to even get the lead runner and without injury.  I want to think Martin would have progressed in the two years since then, but that throw to home the other day, while not a similar play at all, still brought back memories that had the common thread of a lack of confidence. He's 25 years old now and ought to be making these plays without drama, weak arm or not - it's only 95-100 feet to home plate from where he fielded that ball.

After watching Jorge Polanco, Nick Gordon, and now Austin Martin in relatively short order, I no longer think 2B is a very good spot for a SS who doesn't quite have the chops, especially if it's the arm.  All you'll have is a subpar defensive 2Bman. (And I say that without meaning disrespect, since Polanco was one of my favorite ballplayers.)  In the case of Martin, he's shown the potential for making good running catches in CF, though of course the arm will still be a liability once he hauls in that catch at the wall.  And he hasn't got the HR power for his bat to really play in LF where the arm would be less of an issue.  Bottom line, I don't know where to play him and I would trade him, but I don't expect many strong bids for his services from other teams.

[Linus]

5 minutes ago, ashbury said:

I still have seared into my memory the sight of Martin in the Arizona Fall League, bollixing up a short shovel pass (to Eddie Julien as it happened) that would have started an easy double play.  Julien did extremely well to come up with the catch to even get the lead runner and without injury.  I want to think Martin would have progressed in the two years since then, but that throw to home the other day, while not a similar play at all, still brought back memories that had the common thread of a lack of confidence. He's 25 years old now and ought to be making these plays without drama, weak arm or not - it's only 90 feet to home plate from where he fielded that ball.

After watching Jorge Polanco, Nick Gordon, and now Austin Martin in relatively short order, I no longer think 2B is a very good spot for a SS who doesn't quite have the chops, especially if it's the arm.  All you'll have is a subpar defensive 2Bman. (And I say that without meaning disrespect, since Polanco was one of my favorite ballplayers.)  In the case of Martin, he's shown the potential for making good running catches in CF, though of course the arm will always be a liability there.  And he hasn't got the HR power for his bat to really play in LF where the arm would be less of an issue.  Bottom line, I don't know where to play him and I would trade him, but I don't expect many strong bids for his services from other teams.

I agree with this assessment. Players with poor throwing arms know it. It becomes a mental challenge when things get hurried. Like you I really liked Polanco but it was obvious he had a throwing issue. Martins arm is worse and he doesn’t have any of the other attributes Jorge brought to the table. I hope I’m wrong but he ain’t gonna make it. 

[mnfireman]

According to Baseball Savant, Martin's throws average out to 85.3 MPH, but that is based on OF throws. However, that number is higher than Kirilloff, Larnach and Margot in the OF, so he may become a serviceable LF or 4th OF.

The average MLB 2B throws 79.1 MPH, so Julien's 80.2 MPH is slightly above average and higher than former SS Semien, IK-F, Torres and Bogaerts as well as Altuve and Albies.

Other than arm strength (MPH), I am not a big believer in advanced metrics for fielding because there are too many variables to take in (positioning, jump, exit velocity, field condition, game conditions, pitcher and batter handedness, pitch velocity, pitcher's control that day (striking out or walking a lot of batters), game score, runners on base, etc...). I tend to believe what my eye sees (which, thanks to MLB and RSNs is getting harder to do) concerning glovework, footwork, positioning, quick (or not) hands and situational awareness etc...

[RpR]

2 hours ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Right, and fielding % is based on errors which are an objectively awful way to measure defense. No one even tangentially related to baseball uses fielding percentage any more. 

It's 2024, you can find a less erratic measure of defense if you wanted to.

Except Major League Baseball, bunky.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

Except Major League Baseball, bunky.

MLBAM has this really cool thing called Baseball Savant that they put out and display on broadcasts now.

Just because a stat exists doesn't mean anyone "uses" it. Not a very complicated concept, when is the last time you saw fielding percentage on a broadcast? 

[Road trip]

1 hour ago, Linus said:

I agree with this assessment. Players with poor throwing arms know it. It becomes a mental challenge when things get hurried. Like you I really liked Polanco but it was obvious he had a throwing issue. Martins arm is worse and he doesn’t have any of the other attributes Jorge brought to the table. I hope I’m wrong but he ain’t gonna make it. 

I agree with all of the defensive limitations that Martin has.  It'll prevent him from being a solid starter anywhere unless his offense improves massively, which is unlikely.

However, Martin actually fits ok as a 4th outfielder/platoon guy.  Unlike Margot his splits thus far show he can hit righties as well as lefties, so when he pinch hits mid game for a Wallner/Larnach type player he isn't a complete liability the next time up against the inevitable right-handed closer.  He's also likely a better option than a Kyle Garlick/Jordan Luplow type of player who could (theoretically) slug, but wasn't valuable to pinch run or cover much outfield ground.  I also don't like what I've seen of his infield play, but in a pinch he can play a passable 2B if other options have been exhausted....unlike a Margot, Garlick, or Luplow.

So, "make it" sort of depends on how you define that.  I could see Martin having a career that lasts until age 30 or so when he will lose speed, run out of options, and will get more expensive.  His ceiling may be a part time player that can run and hit a little.  That's still valuable.  Heck, the Brewers seem to have a bunch of those guys and they ran all over us last weekend.

[bean5302]

4 hours ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Right, and fielding % is based on errors which are an objectively awful way to measure defense. No one even tangentially related to baseball uses fielding percentage any more. 

It's 2024, you can find a less erratic measure of defense if you wanted to.

I think error rate is actually very valuable. It's a little fact-check on some of the advanced metrics. Jorge Polanco, for instance. He boots a lot of balls, but depending on the metric, he can be rated highly on defense. Since Polanco doesn't have a strong arm, and he boots a lot of balls, it's a good indication the swoon-y metrics aren't reasonable.

Fielding percentage on it's own is not particularly helpful for most positions, and almost useless in some instances. It's not a bad stat, though.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

56 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I think error rate is actually very valuable. It's a little fact-check on some of the advanced metrics. Jorge Polanco, for instance. He boots a lot of balls, but depending on the metric, he can be rated highly on defense. Since Polanco doesn't have a strong arm, and he boots a lot of balls, it's a good indication the swoon-y metrics aren't reasonable.

Fielding percentage on it's own is not particularly helpful for most positions, and almost useless in some instances. It's not a bad stat, though.

I don't see anything that really rates Jorge highly on defense.

The methodology of what is classified as an error is inherently flawed, which means it's essentially useless. 

[USAFChief]

20 minutes ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

I don't see anything that really rates Jorge highly on defense.

The methodology of what is classified as an error is inherently flawed, which means it's essentially useless. 

Not useless. 

Just not as useful or accurate as they used to be, and not the sole measure of defense. 

[mnfireman]

5 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

So is Miranda back today?

 

Nope...

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

...The methodology of what is classified as an error is inherently flawed, which means it's essentially useless...

Balls and strikes would have to be considered useless using that same thought process. The fact an official scorer occasionally thinks a play is an error where you don't think it is or vice versa doesn't invalidate the entire process. Official scorers are paid MLB employees subject to performance reviews and a complaint review process. The process they use isn't just some fan sitting in a seat somewhere drinking a beer and watching the game.

[Riverbrian]

Julien Fielding Percentage

2B - 2024 - AAA - .932 Fielding Percentage equates to 7 errors out of 103 Chances. 

2B - 2024 - MLB - .988 Fielding Percentage - 2 Errors out of 175 Chances. 

If we are seriously having a fielding percentage discussion on Julien. 

Just keep him out of AAA... He'll be fine. 

Too many rocks on the infield. 

[RpR]

4 hours ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

MLBAM has this really cool thing called Baseball Savant that they put out and display on broadcasts now.

Just because a stat exists doesn't mean anyone "uses" it. Not a very complicated concept, when is the last time you saw fielding percentage on a broadcast? 

Yes , it is a gaggle of opinions, gents who do not make the statistics.

Interesting reading, as are most opinion pages, just like Reusse.

Here is the traditional modes of defense stats:

For most of baseball history, putouts, assists, and errors have been the backbone of evaluating defense. From those, it is straightforward to add together a player's (or team's) putouts, assists, and errors to calculate their total chances.

That is already more than just errors but how much scorers baby a player (Julien) a lot is missing., as some one they do not like gets the shaft and a favorite gets by on crap.

This article says more about some are looking at it now IF they so choose.

https://www.twinkietown.com/2021/2/23/22282269/twinkie-town-analytics-fundamentals-come-learn-baseball-with-john-defense-field-percent-uzr-drs-oaa

 

[USAFChief]

10 minutes ago, RpR said:

Yes , it is a gaggle of opinions, gents who do not make the statistics.

Interesting reading, as are most opinion pages, just like Reusse.

Here is the traditional modes of defense stats:

For most of baseball history, putouts, assists, and errors have been the backbone of evaluating defense. From those, it is straightforward to add together a player's (or team's) putouts, assists, and errors to calculate their total chances.

That is already more than just errors but how much scorers baby a player (Julien) a lot is missing., as some one they do not like gets the shaft and a favorite gets by on crap.

This article says more about some are looking at it now IF they so choose.

https://www.twinkietown.com/2021/2/23/22282269/twinkie-town-analytics-fundamentals-come-learn-baseball-with-john-defense-field-percent-uzr-drs-oaa

 

So now you DON'T like fielding percentage?

Your opinion seems to ... vary.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Balls and strikes would have to be considered useless using that same thought process. The fact an official scorer occasionally thinks a play is an error where you don't think it is or vice versa doesn't invalidate the entire process. Official scorers are paid MLB employees subject to performance reviews and a complaint review process. The process they use isn't just some fan sitting in a seat somewhere drinking a beer and watching the game.

There are hundreds and hundreds of balls and strikes called in each game (and yes many umps are bad at their job - regardless of how hard it is). This is not the case with errors, each singular call is much more significant and that a ball misplayed so badly that it doesn't hit the glove is almost never ruled an error seals it for me.

Fielding percentage is a worse measure of defensive ability than the eye test.

And I specifically put "essentially" in that sentence, odd that it's being ignored.

Fielding percentage would have you believe that Kyle Schwarber's 2018 or 2022 (0.995) was better than any professional season Steven Kwan has had defensively. That's an essentially worthless stat in my book.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

38 minutes ago, RpR said:

That is already more than just errors but how much scorers baby a player (Julien) a lot is missing., as some one they do not like gets the shaft and a favorite gets by on crap.

This article says more about some are looking at it now IF they so choose.

https://www.twinkietown.com/2021/2/23/22282269/twinkie-town-analytics-fundamentals-come-learn-baseball-with-john-defense-field-percent-uzr-drs-oaa

 

How much they baby a player like Julien? You're really only proving that you have a personal vendetta against him.

However, I must thank you for linking an article that agrees with what I've said regarding fielding percentage. 

Quote

• Traditional measures of defense (putouts, assists, errors, and fielding percentage) focused on things that happened on the field and could be easily logged. This approach ignored more subjective things like plays that could or should have been made.
• Errors are an attempt to quantify plays that should be made, but the definition is highly subjective, ignores many kinds of bad defensive plays, and is inconsistently applied.
• The traditional defensive stats largely ignore the concept of range, making them incomplete for evaluating how well a defender turns batted balls into outs.
• UZR, DRS, and OAA are widely accepted as the best measures of defense available today.
• Defensive data is inherently noisy. It is advised to use at least three seasons of data before drawing definitive conclusions.

Re: that last point, making conclusions based off a little more than a month's worth of games in AAA is poor data analysis to go along with a poor choice of data. 

[RpR]

42 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

So now you DON'T like fielding percentage?

Your opinion seems to ... vary.

NO, I did not say thatv-- just writing that ERRORS are not the only figure used.

[RpR]

21 minutes ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

How much they baby a player like Julien? You're really only proving that you have a personal vendetta against him.

However, I must thank you for linking an article that agrees with what I've said regarding fielding percentage. 

Re: that last point, making conclusions based off a little more than a month's worth of games in AAA is poor data analysis to go along with a poor choice of data. 

I am not the only person on this site that has said, Julien, and few others, have been given gift of not listed as an error even though they screwed up; Although, that also gives some batters a gift in there Batting Average.

For a point:

Ozzie Smith, one of the best Short Stops that ever played the game; in the 5 years he had Twenty of more errors, his precentage ranked from .970-.974, while also in each of those seasons he played more than 130 games.

So, while errors are an obvious failure, the ability to turn a double play  counts heavily in defense numbers and Julien, is slow at turning double plays.

[tony&rodney]

People are really fixated on Julien's defense. Where are the 15 articles and hundreds of comments trashing Royce Lewis for his glove?

FWIW, I'm not interested in either. Take a look at the recent MLB player draft and specifically the players chosen by the Twins. Teams take guys who can hit, maybe have a chance to actually play MLB. In a perfect world, these hitters learn to be good fielders. Julien and Lewis are good examples. Julien is better than he was a year ago. He stays or goes based on his bat, not his glove.

[RpR]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

People are really fixated on Julien's defense. Where are the 15 articles and hundreds of comments trashing Royce Lewis for his glove?

FWIW, I'm not interested in either. Take a look at the recent MLB player draft and specifically the players chosen by the Twins. Teams take guys who can hit, maybe have a chance to actually play MLB. In a perfect world, these hitters learn to be good fielders. Julien and Lewis are good examples. Julien is better than he was a year ago. He stays or goes based on his bat, not his glove.

Santana is here because of his glove, so guess again, and Kirilloff's lack of a glove.

[DJL44]

10 minutes ago, RpR said:

Santana is here because of his glove, so guess again, and Kirilloff's lack of a glove.

Kirilloff's lack of a glove, bat or good health.

[tony&rodney]

19 minutes ago, RpR said:

Santana is here because of his glove, so guess again, and Kirilloff's lack of a glove.

WTF, I was comparing Lewis and Julien. Santana was signed to be the regular first baseman, plain and simple. It was stated when he was signed. Santana is not part of what I said. FWIW, Santana was signed as a young player because of his bat. He was a catcher, a very poor catcher. Voila, in time Santana became a good defender but it was always about his bat. Get your **** together.

[RpR]

1 minute ago, tony&rodney said:

WTF, I was comparing Lewis and Julien. Santana was signed to be the regular first baseman, plain and simple. It was stated when he was signed. Santana is not part of what I said. FWIW, Santana was signed as a young player because of his bat. He was a catcher, a very poor catcher. Voila, in time Santana became a good defender but it was always about his bat. Get your **** together.

Julien will not stay because of his bat, the Twins look at the whole package and defense counts a LOT.

Get over it.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

22 minutes ago, RpR said:

Julien will not stay because of his bat, the Twins look at the whole package and defense counts a LOT.

Get over it.

Julien defensive replacement tonight really hurting the obviously false personal vendetta.

[RpR]

2 minutes ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Julien defensive replacement tonight really hurting the obviously false personal vendetta.

LOL, no just his bat.😄

[RpR]

Now Eddy can make a difference.

Well one K and one walk, just like AAA.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

Just now, RpR said:

LOL, no just his bat.😄

That's why they left him in, sure thing!