Twins Top 20 Trade Value Series: 1-5

[Cody Christie]

Minnesota’s front office has been aggressive at previous trade deadlines. Will they swing a blockbuster trade, including one of the players ranked below?

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Prospect lists can only tell you so much about an organization’s future. Players at every level will impact the Twins in the coming years, and it’s critical to take stock of the entire organization entering the trade deadline period. Below is a ranking of players based on current and future value regarding potential trades, factoring in age, years of team control, contracts and performance. It doesn’t mean these players will be traded, but they have significant value as the trade deadline approaches.

5. Emmanuel Rodriguez, CF
2024 Age: 21
Years of Team Control: 7
Rodriguez might be the most significant trade chip the Twins are willing to deal before the deadline. He has dominated at the plate during his professional career, but injuries continue to slow him down. He suffered a knee injury in 2022, an abdominal strain in 2023, and a thumb injury this season. When healthy, he has demolished the ball at Double-A with a 1.100 OPS and nearly as many walks (42) as strikeouts (46). Many evaluators believe he has the tools to stick in center field, but he has high trade value even if he is forced to move to a corner outfield spot. He would only be dealt for a player with the chance to make a major impact on the Twins' playoff push, who is also under control for at least another year. We're well over the rental waterline, by now.

4. Jhoan Durán, RP
2024 Age: 26
Years of Team Control: 4
Organizations value dominant late-inning relievers, especially around the trade deadline. Jhoan Durán has been one of the game’s best relievers since making his debut at the start of the 2022 campaign. It would be great if every elite reliever could have the longevity associated with Mariano Rivera or Trevor Hoffman. Unfortunately, the lifespan of most elite relievers is limited to five seasons or fewer. Minnesota has also seen Durán’s velocity drop this season, making him more home run-prone. No pitcher can consistently throw 104 for multiple seasons, so Durán must find a way to be successful at his new velocity. The Twins might be worried about his long-term performance with his drop in velocity, giving him a chance of being traded. If it were to happen, though, it would surely be in the offseason, rather than now, as they scour the league for more relief depth and gear up for a pennant race.

3. Royce Lewis, 3B
2024 Age: 25
Years of Team Control: 5
Lewis has provided the Twins with elite offensive performance when he has been healthy. Alas: Injuries, including multiple knee surgeries, a hamstring strain, and a groin injury, have plagued his big-league career. At this point, the Twins must ensure Lewis is ready to go when the games matter the most in the second half. Last season, he hit four home runs in six playoff games to help the team win their first playoff series in two decades. Lewis has a chance to be a superstar, and the Twins have no reason to trade him.

2. Brooks Lee, SS
2024 Age: 23
Years of Team Control: 6 
Lee is attractive as a potential trade candidate, because the Twins have already seen what he can do at the big-league level. In his first 11 games, he has gone 12-for-44 (.273 BA) with three extra-base hits and a 109 OPS+. Lee, a switch-hitter, revamped his swing from the right side over the winter and has already exceeded his extra-base hit total from last season as a righty. Minnesota saw multiple infielders deal with injuries shortly before the All-Star break, so they may need to keep Lee for depth. However, he could be included in a package deal for a superstar player that puts the Twins on the World Series map for multiple seasons. 

1. Walker Jenkins, OF
2024 Age: 19
Years of Team Control: 10
Last year’s MLB Draft had five players who could have been the first overall pick. The Twins were lucky enough to move into the top five picks as part of the MLB Draft Lottery. Jenkins was the last of the big five prospects on the board, and Minnesota was happy to select him. He made a quick impression by hitting .362/.417/.571 with 12 extra-base hits during his professional debut (26 games). The Twins sent him back to Fort Myers, where he ended last season, but he injured himself running into the wall in the season’s first game. His bat has taken a bit to warm up this season, as he has a .760 OPS in his first 26 games for Fort Myers. However, he continues to control the strike zone with more walks (20) than strikeouts (15). Jenkins could garner a king's ransom if the Twins were willing to trade him, but it seems radically unlikely.

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Do you agree with the above rankings? Who is ranked too high? Who is too low? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[roger]

Including most of these in any article about potential trades had me wondering, what the heck have you been smoking?

[RpR]

If you want a top line pitcher it costs.

[Karbo]

Imagination, isn't it fun. The only kind of trade for any of these would surely be a top notch starter, and I don't think they want to spend that kind of money in salary. Even getting bucks salary off the books wouldn't be enough. Correa isn't going anywhere.

[bean5302]

43 minutes ago, roger said:

Including most of these in any article about potential trades had me wondering, what the heck have you been smoking?

This is about trade value of Twins players. Not whether or not the Twins would trade them.

[bean5302]

Jhoan Duran is dramatically, and I do mean "dramatically" overvalued in this article. He's a good, not elite, relief pitcher. He's arb eligible next year and has a negative fWAR this year thanks to his HR problems leading to a 4.24 FIP. His ERA/FIP/xFIP lead to an overall mid/upper 2's guy who you'd expect to put up 1.2ish WAR per year. 
Joe Nathan
Glen Perkins
Rick Aguilera
Taylor Rogers
Eddie Guardado
Jhoan Duran

That's about how I'd rank the closers in Twins history right now. Jhoan Duran throws hard, but Griffin Jax is worth more than Duran now.

Brooks Lee's value is tough to gauge. Lee straight up for Julien would be 50/50 trade teams would make right now based on Baseballtradevalues. I get it, Lee was really exciting his first couple games, and he's been hyped to Pluto, but the reality is Lee just isn't viewed as a superstar type of player around the league, he's more like a Jorge Polanco ceiling type. Occasional All Star good, but he's not viewed by many outside Twins territory as a likely superstar type player.

[Joe A. Preusser]

Did I miss Jax?  I have to say I'd put him in the same conversation as Duran as far as trade value.  Obviously Duran has that "otherworldly" level.  But body of work has them more even.

[tony&rodney]

Everyone keeps asking what it takes to add a top starting pitcher. Kirby has four years of control, Gilbert three, and Skubel two. Give your best offer. 

[LambchoP]

I see a sad trend in these lists. Incredibly productive when healthy, but injuries have piled up year after year and affected overall numbers...:(

[old nurse]

14 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Jhoan Duran is dramatically, and I do mean "dramatically" overvalued in this article. He's a good, not elite, relief pitcher. He's arb eligible next year and has a negative fWAR this year thanks to his HR problems leading to a 4.24 FIP. His ERA/FIP/xFIP lead to an overall mid/upper 2's guy who you'd expect to put up 1.2ish WAR per year. 
Joe Nathan
Glen Perkins
Rick Aguilera
Taylor Rogers
Eddie Guardado
Jhoan Duran

That's about how I'd rank the closers in Twins history right now. Jhoan Duran throws hard, but Griffin Jax is worth more than Duran now.

Brooks Lee's value is tough to gauge. Lee straight up for Julien would be 50/50 trade teams would make right now based on Baseballtradevalues. I get it, Lee was really exciting his first couple games, and he's been hyped to Pluto, but the reality is Lee just isn't viewed as a superstar type of player around the league, he's more like a Jorge Polanco ceiling type. Occasional All Star good, but he's not viewed by many outside Twins territory as a likely superstar type player.

Jorge at 2b was an All Star when healthy up to this year

[old nurse]

Duran’s value would be at a high point. Once he gets more expensive his value would go down.   Look no further tan the Hader trade. The Brewers got 2 flops and a throw in who debuted vert well then blew out an elbow 

[milkytoast]

Walker Jenkins doesn't have 10 years of control. That is so misleading. You should list years of control in the majors, which is what people actually care about. 

[IaBeanCounter]

Do the Twins still have 5 years of control on Lewis?  

[Joe A. Preusser]

49 minutes ago, milkytoast said:

Walker Jenkins doesn't have 10 years of control. That is so misleading. You should list years of control in the majors, which is what people actually care about. 

You're assuming he isn't called up for good next week?

Jk of course.

[DJL44]

16 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Jhoan Duran is dramatically, and I do mean "dramatically" overvalued in this article. He's a good, not elite, relief pitcher. 

I would trade Duran for another Joe Ryan. Starters are just more valuable than relievers.

[mrcharlie]

Assuming the Twins are in a selling mood.

It is said, "sell high, buy low".

My thoughts then.  Sell Jax for #3 starter (Pittsburgh, Giants or Milwaukee are looking for relief help).  He gives us the greatest return while Alcala can assume his role with confidence. 

If however they are buying...then move kiraloff for a leftie relief arm.